November 2, 2019 at 7:01 am #113490
Where has Mark Saxon been living for the past few months? Us fans on this site have known this situation for a while.November 3, 2019 at 11:55 am #113585
It never ceases to amaze me how one can reliably get better and faster information on this board than waiting on the beat writers.
Goold is usually too busy obsessing over marvel movies or comic books, I have no idea what Saxon does, and I have never seen any original information from Anne Rogers.
TCN is the best place for Cardinal info followed by VEB.November 3, 2019 at 12:16 pm #113592
This Q&A with Jeff Gordon from his chat Friday is exactly what we have been saying on here regarding the tight spot we are in financially.
QUESTION: Is this a correct summary of the situation: The Cardinals are in a holding pattern for the next few years with personnel due to poor long-term contracts and lack of sizzle in the minors to trade from.
GORDO: To Bill DeWitt Jr., dead payroll money is still money. If the Cardinals have to pay a guy big money to go away or fill a lesser role on the team, those dollars are still real. They still count against the budget.
So there is an opportunity cost issue. The money invested in Carpenter and Fowler cost this team the opportunity to trade for pricey veterans or shop the high end of the free-agent marketplace, such as it is.
Not only will the Cardinals have to keep some guys coming off mediocre or flat-out awful seasons, they will have less ability to go get better players.November 3, 2019 at 12:27 pm #113595
Gordo’s thinking is a little bit irrational.
Yes, it still costs DeWitt real money if you still have to pay those players.
But it also costs DeWitt real money if the team does not make the playoffs (the opportunity cost argument).
Does DeWitt make more money by eating $6-10 million of underperfoming salary and making the playoffs, or retaining the underperforming, overpaid veterans and missing the playoffs?November 3, 2019 at 12:36 pm #113596
MPWR2, if only there was a magic formula that told us all exactly how much spending assured a playoff berth… Of course, that is not real. It is all unanswerable “what ifs?”.
P.S. Eating Carpenter’s and Fowler’s salaries would cost a lot more than $6-10 MM.November 3, 2019 at 7:21 pm #113609
Is there any break out published in the last decade on what a team makes by going to the playoffs?November 4, 2019 at 9:24 am #113647
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The money invested in Carpenter and Fowler cost this team the opportunity to trade for pricey veterans or shop the high end of the free-agent marketplace, such as it is.
This is the crux of the team’s opportunity to add an above average OF instead of the below average Fowler. He has also taken a place in the lineup of a better prospect and blocking others. In Carpenter’s case, using him instead of Edman starting at third is problematic.
Those fans hoping for a trade to add to the offense need to only look at this situation created by the FO as to why an elite player is nearly out of the question. Too much wasted money.November 5, 2019 at 8:41 pm #113780
P.S. Eating Carpenter’s and Fowler’s salaries would cost a lot more than $6-10 MM.
I don’t think there is any chance of them eating any of Carpenter’s salary. His contract was a “franchise icon” contract. Fowler’s was a panic move at a time the Cardinals had no outfield depth. My comment about eating $6-10 million was specifically about eating part of Fowler’s contract to make him appealing in a trade.
The Athletic’s Mark Saxon reports that Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. confirmed in Tuesday’s end-of-season news conference that the Redbirds’ 2020 payroll will remain at roughly the same amount (approximately $162 million) that it was in ’19.
Looks like even gscottar overestimated this front office.November 5, 2019 at 9:11 pm #113787
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BDW must be assuming no chance that Ozuna takes the QO as well. If he did that would really mess up the chance to stay near the same payroll unless they were able to trade some salary away.
As is…either he’s bluffing or we are in for a real snoozefest this offseason.November 5, 2019 at 9:18 pm #113789
At a minimum, DeWitt is keeping expectations low.
Ozuna is not going to accept the QO. Those who are holding out hope for that will soon be disappointed.
BDW certainly would not talk about trading away salary, even if that was his hope. That would just fan the flames.November 5, 2019 at 10:24 pm #113793
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I don’t think that Ozuna accepts it either but Richard Justice in an article on MLB.com said this:
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals (age 28 — turns 29 on Nov. 12)
He appears to have found a baseball home in St. Louis, and while his .800 OPS isn’t elite, the totality of his game makes him extremely valuable to a team that returned to the postseason this season. He has said he’d love to stay in St. Louis, and the qualifying offer gives him the chance to do that. He’s also young enough that he could have a robust market next offseason without a QO attached.
Should he accept? Yes
Will he accept? YesNovember 6, 2019 at 12:17 am #113801
The internet is full of opinions. I am not familiar with Justice other than when he was an Astros beat writer. He is not known as a rumors-focused writer like Ken Rosenthal to the best of my knowledge.
Giving Ozuna kudos for the “totality of his game” when we all know the reality that his defense is lacking makes me question this write-up.
On the other hand, I know Craig Mish personally and he is very well connected with the Marlins and a number of their current and former players and their agents. He is hearing the same thing I am.
From the people I’ve spoken with today they expect the Cardinals to issue OF Marcell Ozuna the qualifying offer. If indeed this is the case, he will decline it. Feels adamant about getting a good deal in the market.
— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) November 4, 2019November 6, 2019 at 12:41 am #113802
P.S. I went back and found Justice’s article. Here is the link.
If we are to take his word for it, three of the ten eligibles plus one “maybe” will take the qualifying offer. Maybe it is a new world, but that has never come close to happening before.
Since QOs were first allowed in 2012, 84 of the 90 were rejected. One was accepted last winter, Ryu, and none in 2017.
My conclusion: Justice is throwing darts and isn’t likely to be very accurate in doing so.November 6, 2019 at 9:14 am #113817
You are probably right Brian but the only thing that would give me pause is that the last two winters several players with draft pick compensation attached to them have not done well in FA. Those facing that this winter will at least have to give accepting the QO a second thought.November 6, 2019 at 9:34 am #113827November 6, 2019 at 11:02 am #113839
Well, at least we know that IF Ozuna were to accept the QO, the Cardinals would do everything possible to trade Fowler…November 6, 2019 at 11:48 am #113844
Well, at least we know that IF Ozuna were to accept the QO, the Cardinals would do everything possible to trade Fowler…
That is very true. If Ozuna stays then someone else has to go because the math wouldn’t work.
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