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Seattle’s current options at second base:
Cole Young, a 22-year-old former Top 60 prospect whom FanGraphs projects with a 2026 WAR of 1.6 in 91 games. Young started 68 regular-season games at second base this year.
Leo Rivas, a 28-year-old who started at second base in the final four postseason game after posting 0.8 fWAR in 48 games during the regular season. FanGraphs projects Rivas with a 2026 WAR of 0.6 in 42 games.
Ryan Bliss, this year’s now 26-year-old Opening Day starter (starting 11 of the first 12 games before being derailed by injuries). FanGraphs projects Bliss with a 2026 WAR of 0.3 in 26 games.
Brendan Donovan may be an upgrade over any of these three individuals but the Mariners may choose to spread their risk by betting on a breakout by any of these three players.
Happy Holidays, CardsFanInChiT!
The Mariners would likely prefer to roll out the following lineup instead of trading the high ceiling of Ryan Sloan: CRaleigh, 1B JNaylor, 2B CYoung, SS JCrawford, 3B BWilliamson, RF VRobles/LRaley, CF JRodriguez, LF RArozarena, DH DCanzone.
In other words, a trade of Sloan is unlikely.
Arroyo is also good but he’s not likely a 3B and isn’t better than Wetherholt at 2B.
FWIW Michael Arroyo, Seattle’s 63rd-ranked prospect at MLB.com, has been playing the outfield in the Colombian Winter League.
Would any team be interested in a barely 21-year-old righthand-hitting outfielder who has posted wRC+ of 146 amd 139 the past two seasons as an underaged hitter over Single A and Double A?
Just Baseball podcasters discuss a hypothetical trade of Brendan Donovan to the Dodgers for prospects Eduardo Quintero and Zachary Root:
I like the Mariners and was rooting for them this year. Wanted to see them get their first pennant – came so close. Good luck in ‘26!
bicyclemike, thanks for the positive thoughts.
I have fond memories of Wyoming having lived for five years in Laramie in the 1980s.
It may all be moot anyway. Bloom apparently has a strong propensity to do business with orgs and people where he has past relationships. East rather than west if nothing else.
Good point.
A Seattle trade for Brendan Donovan is unlikely to happen although with Boston in November 2023 Chaim Bloom traded Luis Urias to the Mariners for Isaiah Campbell. With the Red Sox, Bloom also engineered separate cash deals that sent Easton McGee to Seattle and Yaksel Rios to Boston.
In the end Seattle is unlikely to trade a Top 100 prospect or two for a potential two-year upgrade from returning second baseman Cole Young to Brendan Donovan.
Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each position player, projects Donovan with a 2026 WAR of 3.1 and Young with a 2026 WAR of 2.4. Of course, Donovan have averaged only 501 plate appearances annually over his first four seasons so a reasonable expectation might by closer to 2.7 WAR. Likewise, 600 plate appearances are not guaranteed for Young, who faded badly down the stretch this year in his age 21 season.
A Seattle trade for Donovan is unlikely to happen but the meaningful discussion has been interesting.
I wonder how skewed the #402 pick in baseball is WAR-wise across all of baseball over the last 30 years, just from one player.
On the 402nd picks of the MLB draft:
60 matching player(s). 12 played in the majors (20%). Total of 112.8 WAR, or 9.4 per major leaguer.
… led, of course, by the 101.2 WAR posted by Albert Pujols.
FWIW in its 2025 report, FanGraphs had Jurrangelo Cijntje rated as a FV 50 arm:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jean-michael-cijntje/sa3028930/stats/pitching
However, Cijnyje is overshadowed by Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan in the Seattle farm system. FanGraphs rated Anderson FV 50 and Sloan FV 45+.
Sorry, no deal.;-)
Why isn’t Jurrangelo Cijntje adequate? Cijntje was an overall No. 15 draft pick whereas Seattle’s young starting pitching corps of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo went with the No. 14, No. 20, No. 113 and No. 174 picks, respectively, all out of college programs. The Mariners have experienced good luck scouting college pitchers.
I am a Seattle Mariner fan in Portland, Oregon, but grew up a Minnesota Twin fan in a small Iowa town where the local radio station carried Harry Caray broadcasts of St. Louis Cardinal games.
Seattle right-hander Bryan Woo, a 2025 All Star, was selected out of college with the 174th pick of the 2021 draft while teammate Bryce Miller was taken with the 113th pick of the same draft.
Scouting counts.
Seattle’s Round B Competitive Balance pick is currently No. 70 and fewer than half of No. 70 draft picks have ever appeared in an MLB game:
It’s worth noting that the Cardinals selected Alec Burleson with the 70th pick of the 2020 draft.
Of the 60 players selected with the 70th pick, 22 played in the majors (36%) and accumulated a total of 84.9 WAR, or 3.9 per major leaguer. However, Andrelton Simmons’ career WAR of 36.5 skewed the average.
the 63rd-ranked minor leaguer will eventually put up a career WAR total of roughly 9 or 10, and the 90th prospect perhaps 6 career WAR. That’s simply not good enough, for a guy who’s halfway to a 20 WAR career
Thank you for the feedback.
The proposal includes only two years of Brendan Donovan, who has averaged 2.4 bWAR a year over the past three seasons. That projected aggregate return WAR of 15+ could favor the Cardinals even if Donovan averages his projected 3 WAR over his final two seasons of team control.
The proposal includes five years of reliever Riley O’Brien, who is projected with a 2026 WAR of 0.5. The deal also includes Seattle’s Round B Competitive Balance pick, currently at No. 70, which historically has averaged a modest career WAR of 1.7.
Would anyone trade Brendan Donovan and Riley O’Brien to Seattle for two Top 100 prospects in Michael Arroyo (No. 63) and Jurrangelo Cijntje (No. 90), plus the Mariners’ Round B Comp Balance Pick?
Baseball Trade Values assigns each side of that trade a surplus value of $37 million.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/206275
O’Brien has a surplus value of $4.5 million and the comp pick a value of $2.5 million, according to Baseball Trade Values.
1toughdominica and Bob Reed, thank you for the feedback.
A problem with citing WAR/162 stats for Brendan Donovan is that Donovan has averaged only 123 games per year over his first four MLB seasons. Since his 4.0 bWAR rookie season, Donovan has posted seasons of 1.9, 2.6 and 2.7 bWAR.
Frazier had averaged only 2.7 WAR per 162 games at the time of November 2021 trade coming off a 4.0 bWAR season. Donovan’s edge with his 3.7 WAR/162 stat is undercut by his inability to play a full complement of games.
From a Seattle perspective, Brendan Donovan has a certain Adam Frazier vibe … a lefthand-hitting second baseman who can play the outfield.
In November 2021 the Mariners traded Corey Rosier and Ray Kerr to San Diego for one year of Frazier, who was coming off a 3.3 fWAR (4.0 bWAR) season and his only All Star appearance. Donovan is coming off a 2.9 fWAR (2.7 bWAR) season and his only All Star appearance.
Frazier earned $8 million in his only season with the Mariners; Donovan is projected to earn $5.4 million in his penultimate season before free agency.
Frazier and Donovan exceeded expectations after being drafted in the sixth and seventh rounds out of Deep South universities. Donovan is one year younger today than Frazier was at the time of his trade in the 2021-22 offseason.
In his lone season with the Mariners, Frazier posted 1.3 fWAR (0.9 bWAR) in 156 games as Seattle secured its first postseason berth in 21 years.
jj-cf-stl, Seattle’s “untouchables” are probably just that … untouchable.
Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson are attractive to a Seattle club that hopes to reduce its strikeout rate among position players. Donovan and Burleson are good, everyday MLB players but neither is elite. The Mariners would likely trade Kade Anderson or Ryan Sloan only in a deal for an elite player. Donovan and Burleson are a grade above “low budget backfills.”
Last season the Mariners finished second in the American League with a team OPS+ of 113 but 11th in the league with a team ERA+ of 98. A FanGraphs caption to the preliminary ZiPS projections released this week read: “There’s a high probability the Mariners enter 2026 with the most projected wins in the American League …”
FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski noted “I’m not sure an acquisition like Brendan Donovan, who is said to be available in trade, is necessary, though Donovan specifically could have a lot of value as a 500 plate appearance supersub if that’s the way the Mariners wanted to roll.”
The Mariners look to improve this offseason despite the optimistic projections.
Thank you for the compliment.
I am a Seattle fan who escapes the Mariner blogosphere to access outside perspectives.
I think that Arenado’s defense alone could give the Mariners 2 or 3 more wins than anybody else they could put on 3B.
FWIW Steamer600 projects Nolan Arenado with a 2026 WAR of 2.2 and returning Seattle third baseman Ben Williamson with a 2026 WAR of 1.9:
Jurrangelo Cijntje might be undervalued because of skeptcism surrounding his switch-handedness.
Cijntje could be close to his MLB debut after posting an ERA of 2.67 in seven starts with the Double A Arkansas Travelers this year in his first professional season.
Top Seattle pitching prospects often go directly from Double A Arkansas to the parent club. In their third and second professional seasons, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo made the nonstop jump after only 14 starts and nine starts, respectively, at Arkansas. Logan Gilbert made nine starts at Double A and one at Triple A before his MLB debut. George Kirby made 11 starts at Double A and one at Triple A before his call-up.
Cijntje in currenting the No. 90 prospect at MLB.com. Miller peaked at No. 98 and No. 100 at MLB.com and Baseball America while Woo was never ranked on a preseason Top 100 prospect list.
Seattle prospects Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan may have higher ceilings, but Cijntje has value.
Thank you for the extensive research.
The list of Seattle trade targets omits pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, a 55 prospect at MLB.com and a 50 prospect at FanGraphs.
Indeed, in a crowded second base trade market, Brendan Donovan’s value derives more from his modest projected salary than from his on-field production.
Yes, a trade of Brendan Donovan should command a greater return than the July 2024 trade of Randy Arozarena from Tampa Bay to Seattle. However, Cardinal fans should temper their expectations.
Two years of Brendan Donovan and one year of JoJo Romero is unlikely to bring back two MLB.com Top 50 prospects in Lazaro Montes (No. 29) and Ryan Sloan (No. 44).
Steamer600 projects Donovan with a 2026 WAR of 3.1 and returning Seattle second baseman Cole Young with a 2026 WAR of 2.4. Steamer600 is generous to Donovan, who has averaged only 123 games per year over his first four MLB seasons.
The Mariners are not desperate in a second base trade market that includes Ketel Marte, Brandon Lowe, Jeff McNeil, Jake Cronenworth and, perhaps, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Nico Hoerner. This year all but one posted a higher fWAR than Donovan.
The Seattle Mariners franchise is not headed to bankruptcy, landing ahead of the Cardinals in revenue and operating income in 2024:
https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#header:valueList
Was the cheap shot at Jerry Dipoto necessary after Baseball America recently named Seattle’s PBO the 2025 Executive of the Year?
https://www.mlb.com/news/mariners-jerry-dipoto-named-baseball-america-2025-executive-of-the-year
Seattle podcasters used the Randy Arozarena trade at the 2024 deadline as a baseine for a Brendan Donovan trade to the Mariners this offseason.
Arozarena, who was 29 years old at the time of the trade, had posted 13.7 fWAR (12.0 bWAR) in 587 games at that point in his career. Donovan, who turns 29 next month, has posted 10.1 fWAR (11.1 bWAR) in 492 career games.
At the time of the trade, Arozarena came with two years and two months of team control and about $2.8 million left on his 2024 salary of $8.1 million. This year Arozarena earned $11.1 million in the third of four arbitration seasons. MLB Trade Rumors projects a 2026 salary of $18.2 million in his final arbitration year.
Donovan has two years of team control with a projected 2026 salary of $5.4 million in the second of three arbitration seasons.
Arozarena’s higher salaries tend of offset the value of his additional two months of team control.
Seattle acquired Arozarena for outfielder Aidan Smith and right-hander Brody Hopkins, who were then the No. 12 and No. 22 prospects in the Mariner farm system.
https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-trade-randy-arozarena-for-two-prospects
Should Brendan Donovan command a greater return in a trade to Seattle this offseason?
FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns Brendan Donovan a surplus value of $32.1 million and Riley O’Brien a surplus value of $4.5 million.
BTV assigns Michael Arroyo a surplus value of $20 million and Jurrangelo Cijntje a surplus value of $15.9 million. So far this year BTV has not assigned a value to Comp Round B draft picks but last year the picks had a surplus value in the $2 million range.
