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December 18, 2025 at 5:13 pm #297834
TrickyBB, I’ll definitely jump in on that!
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-Pallante- opening day starter for the CubsDecember 19, 2025 at 10:10 am #297874
stlcard25ParticipantLONG POST ALERT
While I have some down time before Christmas, I’ve been thinking about trade returns and what sort of prospects the Cards could or should get back for the guys they have available. It’s rumored that the Cards want a pitcher and a hitter back for Donovan, and I think it’s safe to say that they expect those two to be solid, if not good prospects (FV 45-55 guys). I would hope the return would be one guy nearing MLB readiness and one guy who’s maybe an A ball guy with some potential helium. I think the Cards could get a 50 or two 45s for Contreras, and maybe could get a 45 or 50 for Nootbaar or Romero. So if we played our Cards just perfectly, we could get a FV 55 guy, a couple of 50s or upper end 45s (borderline top 100 guys) and a couple more 40-45s who could be primed to jump levels in the right system. You could potentially sub in a guy already at the MLB level for one of those guys, but unless they are more established pre arb types, it would be more replacing the lotto ticket as opposed to the headliner. For this exercise, I’m assuming prospect only returns (prospects could have debuted, briefly).
So I have been spending time on MLB and Fangraphs’ prospect lists (which are the most accessible) and trying to come up with a more comprehensive list of targets, rather than focusing in on one or two teams (such as the Mets and Mariners). Now, understanding that different teams do have different needs, there are some teams that I wouldn’t really expect the Cards to be trading with, for various reasons:
Division Rivals-Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Pirates
Fellow Bottom Feeders-White Sox, Twins, Angels, Nats, Marlins, Rockies
Probably Not Buying What We’re Selling-Rays, Rangers, Phillies, Braves, Padres
Given that it was reported that around half the teams have called about Donovan, I’m going to go with these teams as unlikely to be trade partners. That leaves the following potential buyers for one of the three guys that we are likely to trade:
Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Guardians, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, Astros, As, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Dbacks
Now, for the players. For our exercise, I’m going to make a few assumptions. First, we are not going to be getting any FV 60 or better prospects back (roughly top 20 guys). We’re not trading pre arb Pujols here. Second, I’m leaving out the DSL guys and a bunch of the rookie level guys unless they are recent draft picks. I’m looking for main pieces in a return for one of our starting players. Third, I’m going to omit a few positions that I just cannot imagine that we’d be in the market for a return: catcher, first base, and both middle infield positions. While it’s theoretically possible that we would accept one as a return (and I will include a couple of guys who are 2B/SS types that could be able to slide to 3B or corner OF), it doesn’t seem to jive with what we will need in the medium term, let alone short term. So we are basically looking at (in order of preference) starting pitching, outfield and third base. We’d also ideally look for right handed bats and starters, but it’s probably not a deal breaker to get some lefties. So I’ll continue team by team:
The Favorites
Seattle Mariners
55 Hitters-Lazaro Montes, OF; Johnny Farmelo, OF
55 Pitchers-Kade Anderson, LHP; Ryan Sloan, RHP
50 Hitters-Michael Arroyo, 2B
50 Pitchers-
45 Hitters-Tai Peete, OF; Korbyn Dickerson, OF
45 Pitchers-Teddy McGraw, RHP; Michael Morales, RHP
40+ Guys-Marcelo Perez, RHP; Griffin Hugus, RHP; Chia-Shia Shen, RHP
Comp Round B PickWe keep looking at the Mariners and sensible trade partners…because they are. They are a team in win now mode, need help at positions that we have available (more so before they traded for Jose Ferrer), but they probably wouldn’t turn down help at 2B/3B, relief, maybe even 1B, OF or relief). So who would be the targets? St Louis has talked about Sloan and Montes. The Mariners may be loathe to part with one or either. Would they let Anderson go? The Cards would probably have to package both Donovan and Romero to make it palatable. A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Kade Anderson, Comp Round B Pick
SEA Gets: Brendan Donovan, Jojo Romero, Brycen MautzOR
STL Gets: Korbyn Dickerson, OF, Comp Round B Pick
SEA Gets: Lars NootbaarSan Francisco Giants
55 Hitters-Bryce Eldridge, 1B
55 Pitchers-
50 Hitters-Gaven Kilen, 2B; Bo Davidson, OF; Dakota Jordan, OF
50 Pitchers-Carson Whisenhunt, LHP
45 Hitters-
45 Pitchers-Argenis Cayama, RHP; Keyner Martinez, RHP; Jacob Bresnahan, LHP; Blade Tidwell, RHP; Joe Whitman, LHP; Trent Harris, RHP
40+ Guys-Carlos Gutierrez, OF; Trevor Cohen, OF; Luis De La Torre, LHPThe Giants seem like an odd trade partner. They do need help at positions the Cards have, but they don’t have a lot that the Cards would seem to be after. You would think that Whisenhunt would have to be involved in a trade package. Eldridge is a 60 FV on MLB, but 55 on FG, so I went middle there. But the Giants probably wouldn’t trade him. I think they would offer a package weaker than some of the others here for Donnie. Since they lost Yaz, would they be interested in a Lars and Willson package? A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Bo Davidson, OF, Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, Carlos Guttierez, OF
SFG Gets: Brendan DonovanOR
STL Gets: Gavin Kilen, 2B, Keyner Martinez, RHP
SFG Gets: Lars Nootbaar, Willson Contreras, $5MThe Dream Systems
New York Mets
55 Hitters-Carson Benge, OF; Jett Williams, UTIL
55 Pitchers-Jonah Tong, RHP
50 Hitters-Jacob Reimer, 3B; AJ Ewing, 2B/OF; Ryan Clifford, 1B/OF
50 Pitchers-Brandon Sproat, RHP
45 Hitters-Emil Serrano, OF; Nick Morabito, OF
45 Pitchers-Will Watson, RHP; Jack Wenninger, RHP; Jonathan Santucci, LHP
40+ Guys-Jonathan Pintaro, RHP; Ryan Lambert, RHP; Zach Thornton, LHPThe Mets have pitching depth on top of their pitching depth. They also have a solid well of positional talent to make a trade from. Would they be after Donnie? We’ll include a proposal. Unfortunately, they may need their pitching depth as their staff spent a lot of the year in the infirmary. Tong is the big name here, but Sproat debuted as well and there is value even down into the FV40 range, IMO. A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Jacob Reimer, 3B, Brandon Sproat, RHP
NYM Gets: Brendan DonovanOR
STL Gets: Will Watson, RHP, Zach Thornton, LHP
NYM Gets: Willson Contreras, $8MLos Angeles Dodgers
55 Hitters-Eduardo Quintero, OF Alex Freeland, SS/SB; Mike Sirota, OF
55 Pitchers-Jackson Ferris, LHP
50 Hitters-James Tibbs III, OF; Ching-Hsien Ko, OF; Charles Davalan, OF
50 Pitchers-River Ryan, RHP; Adam Serwinowski, LHP; Zachary Root, LHP
45 Hitters-Chase Harlan, 3B
45 Pitchers-Christian Zazueta, RHP; Patrick Copen, RHP; Payton Martin, RHP; Hyun-Sok Jang, RHP
40+ Guys-Cam Leiter, RHP; Peter Heubeck, RHP; Kendall George, OFThis is the true behemoth of development. They flex their muscle on every front now, and the machine doesn’t seem to be slowing down. They generally get whatever they want, so why not add another of our swiss army type players to go with Tommy Edman? There’s both pitching and hitting in spades. A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Eduardo Quintero, OF, Christian Zazueta, RHP
LAD Gets: Brendan DonovanOR
STL Gets: River Ryan, RHP
LAD Gets: Lars NootbaarPitching Galore
New York Yankees
55 Hitters-Spencer Jones, OF
55 Pitchers-Carlos Lagrange, RHP; Elmer Rodriguez, RHP
50 Hitters-Dax Kilby, SS
50 Pitchers-Bryce Cunningham, RHP; Ben Hess, RHP
45 Hitters-
45 Pitchers-Chase Hampton, RHP; Henry Lalane, LHP; Brock Selvidge, LHP
40+ Guys-Kyle Carr, LHP; Cade Smith, RHPThere’s really very little hitting depth here, at least at positions that we have interest in. They probably wouldn’t give up Jones (and I’m not sure we want him). Kilby is an interesting prospect, but we will move on from him for now. Let’s add pitching to pitching. A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Elmer Rodriguez, RHP, Ben Hess, RHP
NYY Gets: Brendan Donovan, FlierOR
STL Gets: Chase Hampton, RHP, Kyle Carr, LHP
NYY Gets: Willson ContrerasDark Horse
Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas Athletics
55 Hitters-
55 Pitchers-Jamie Arnold, LHP; Gage Jump, LHP
50 Hitters-
50 Pitchers-Braden Nett, RHP
45 Hitters-Henry Bolte, OF; Devin Taylor, OF; Tommy White, 3B; Gavin Turley, OF
45 Pitchers-Henry Baez, RHP; Mason Barnett, RHP; Steven Echavarria, RHP; Gunnar Hogland, RHP
40+ Guys-Wei-En Lin, LHP
Comp Round B PickWhile they aren’t loaded up with position players, they have intriguing talent on the pitching side. A little unfortunately, they need their pitching depth. But would they be even more in need of some help in the field? I’ll guess so. A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Henry Baez, RHP, Comp B Pick
ATH Gets: Brendan Donovan, Riley O’BrienDark Horse Part Deux
Kansas City Royals
55 Hitters-
55 Pitchers-
50 Hitters-Sean Gamble, OF; Josh Hammond, 3B
50 Pitchers-David Shields, LHP; Ben Kudrna, RHP; Kendry Chourio, RHP
45 Hitters-Asbel Gonzalez, OF
45 Pitchers-Drew Beam, RHP; Steven Zobac, RHP; Felix Arronde, RHP; Luinder Avila, RHP; Michael Lombardi, RHP
40+ Guys-Blake Wolters, RHP; Hiro Wyatt, RHP
Comp Round A PickNo super high end guys, but they do have some good depth. Shields and Chourio could be 55 guys this coming year. A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Kendry Chourio, RHP, Josh Hammond, 3B, Comp A Pick
KCR Gets: Brendan Donovan, Jojo RomeroFamiliar Feels
Boston Red Sox
55 Hitters-
55 Pitchers-Payton Tolle, LHP; Kyson Witherspoon, RHP
50 Hitters-Justin Gonzales, OF
50 Pitchers-Connelly Early, LHP
45 Hitters-Miguel Bleis, OF
45 Pitchers-Jake Bennett, LHP; David Sandlin, RHP; Marcus Phillips, RHP; Anthony Eyanson, RHP; Juan Valera, RHP; Hayden Mullins, LHP
40+ Guys-John Holobetz, RHP; Yophery Rodriguez, OFThis one probably depends on what happens with Bregman. Heck, even Arenado could be a possibility, but in this exercise, we’ll trade them a couple of better players. A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Yophery Rodriguez, OF
BOS Gets: Brendan DonovanOR
STL Gets: Jake Bennett, LHP, Marcus Phillips, RHP
BOS Gets: Willson Contreras, $10MCleveland Guardians
55 Hitters-Chase DeLauter, OF
55 Pitchers-
50 Hitters-Jaison Chourio, OF; Jace LaViolette, OF; Ralphy Velasquez, 1B/OF
50 Pitchers-Khal Stephen, RHP; Braylon Doughty, RHP
45 Hitters-Alfonsin Rosario, OF; Juneiker Caceres, OF
45 Pitchers-Parker Messick, LHP; Joey Oakie, RHP
40+ Guys-Kahlil Watson, OF; Andrew Walters, RHP
Comp Round A PickThe Guardians don’t have a super impressive farm system, yet they continually turn out good arms. They have a bad OF, don’t really need pitching help (or want to pay for it), but we probably know their system fairly well. The comp A pick probably comes into play, and would they trade it? A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Khal Stephen, RHP, Kahlil Watson, OF, Comp A Pick
CLE Gets: Brendan DonovanOR
STL Gets: Java LaViolette, OF, Lotto ticket
CLE Gets: Lars NootbaarHouston Astros
55 Hitters-
55 Pitchers-
50 Hitters-Jacob Melton, OF
50 Pitchers-
45 Hitters-Joseph Sullivan, OF; Ethan Frey, OF
45 Pitchers-Miguel Ullola, RHP; Anderson Brito, RHP; Ryan Forcucci, RHP; Bryce Mayer, RHP; Ethan Pecko, RHP; Alimber Santa, RHP; Jackson Nezuh, RHP; AJ Blubaugh, RHP
40+ Guys-Jose Fleury, RHPHow the Turn…Tables
Arizona Diamondbacks
55 Hitters-Ryan Waldschmidt, OF
55 Pitchers-
50 Hitters-Slade Cawell, OF; Demetrio Crisantes, IF
50 Pitchers-Kohl Drake, LHP
45 Hitters-Druw Jones, OF
45 Pitchers-Patrick Forbes, RHP; Mitch Bratt, LHP; Christian Mena, RHP; Daniel Eagan, RHP; David Hagaman, RHP; Dean Livingston, RHP; Brian Curley, RHP; Ashton Izzi, RHP
40+ Guys-Brandyn Garcia, LHP; Hunter Cranton, RHP
Comp Round A PickPitching is a bit thin, but they have a guy who probably would slot into our OF as a regular before long. They do have a need, especially if they trade Marte. Would they want to trade for Donnie as a replacement? A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, David Hagaman, RHP, Comp A Pick
ARI Gets: Brendan DonovanFeels Like It Should Work…?
Detroit Tigers
55 Hitters-Bryce Rainer, SS
55 Pitchers-
50 Hitters-Hau-Yu Lee, 2B/3B; Cris Rodriguez, OF
50 Pitchers-
45 Hitters-Max Anderson, 2B/3B; John Peck, 3B
45 Pitchers-Malachi Witherspoon, RHP; Owen Hall, RHP; Andrew Sears, LHP; Ty Madden, RHP
40+ Guys-Dylan Smith, RHP
Comp Round B PickThe Tigers probably could use a third sacker, and probably wouldn’t hate a utility guy to bridge to their coming stars that I didn’t include (McGonigle, Clark). Rainer is possibly the odd man out, or would they just slot him at 3B in a couple years? A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Bryce Rainer, SS, Comp B Pick
DET Gets: Brendan DonovanHey, It Could Happen
Toronto Blue Jays
55 Hitters-JoJo Parker, SS
55 Pitchers-
50 Hitters-Ricky Tiedemann, LHP; Johnny King, LHP
50 Pitchers-Yohendrick Pinago, OF; Victor Arias, OF; RJ Schrek, OF
45 Hitters-
45 Pitchers-Gage Stanifer, RHP; Jake Bloss, RHP; Micah Bucknam, RHP
40+ Guys-The Jays are another “win now” team, but their system isn’t deep and they probably would have to include Parker to intrigue the Cards. Still, a trade proposal:
STL Gets: JoJo Parker, SS, Gage Stanifer, RHP
TOR Gets: Brendan DonovanBaltimore Orioles
55 Hitters-Dylan Beavers, OF
55 Pitchers-
50 Hitters-Enrique Bradfield, Jr, OF; Slater de Brun, OF
50 Pitchers-
45 Hitters-Nate George, OF
45 Pitchers-Esteban Mejia, RHP; Boston Bateman, LHP; Michael Forret, RHP; Trey Gibson, RHP; Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP; Nestor German, RHP; Braxton Bragg, RHP; Joseph Dzierwa, LHP
40+ Guys-Levi Wells, RHP; Patrick Reilly, RHP
Comp Round A PickAnother team that could use a guy like Donnie. They could probably use Lars or Contreras as well. Do they have the prospects to interest the Cards? It might have to be a quantity over quality situation. A trade proposal:
STL Gets: Esteban Mejia, RHP, Michael Forret, RHP, Nestor German, Comp A Pick
BAL Gets: Brendon Donovan, Ryan FernandezOR
STL Gets: Juaron Watts-Brown, Comp A Pick
BAL Gets: Willson Contreras, $8MDecember 19, 2025 at 11:23 am #297875Thank you for the extensive research.
The list of Seattle trade targets omits pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, a 55 prospect at MLB.com and a 50 prospect at FanGraphs.
December 19, 2025 at 11:36 am #297878
stlcard25ParticipantGood catch. Not sure how I missed him. Well, I can’t add him to the post now, but he is in my spreadsheet now. I think he’s probably a little overvalued because of his switch handedness (which I would imagine he would drop the lefty pitching before long as he’s been hammered from that side by both LH and RH hitters). Anyway, he’s a possibility for sure (not my first choice, but Bloom’s choice is all that matters).
December 19, 2025 at 1:45 pm #297882Well done C25, I love the detail and breakdown ideas.
If it is close to the same package, I’m still a big proponent of a RHSPer vs a lefty, like Sloan and any bat that is not a MIer.December 19, 2025 at 2:22 pm #297885Kim at $20M and Polanco at 2/40, we might all have severely underrated the value of Contreras and Donnie. As well as planning to eat most of Nado’s contract.
December 19, 2025 at 2:29 pm #297887
stlcard25ParticipantI don’t think we severely underestimated it. But Donovan is more valuable than most opposing fans think. He will get traded, and the return will probably be at least one top 100 prospect and a guy who is in range of it, if not two top 100s. He’s not at Marte level, so we may need to wait until the Dbacks trade him. But who knows…maybe Chaim has a trick up his sleeve before Christmas.
December 19, 2025 at 2:42 pm #297889I listened to a Mariners podcast very recently just because it had Donovan in the title and i literally closed it, after a few minutes because it was so ridiculous.
December 19, 2025 at 3:08 pm #297893Thanks for all of you work 25. The name on your list that jumps out the most to me is Cade Anderson. I desperately wanted the Cards to draft him last year but he got picked two spots in front of us. We got a very nice consolation prize though in Liam Doyle. If you paired Anderson and Doyle together you would have two potential aces in your rotation for years to come. I saw both of those guys pitch in person when they went against the U of A. Both are really top notch pitchers.
December 19, 2025 at 5:35 pm #297901Jurrangelo Cijntje might be undervalued because of skeptcism surrounding his switch-handedness.
Cijntje could be close to his MLB debut after posting an ERA of 2.67 in seven starts with the Double A Arkansas Travelers this year in his first professional season.
Top Seattle pitching prospects often go directly from Double A Arkansas to the parent club. In their third and second professional seasons, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo made the nonstop jump after only 14 starts and nine starts, respectively, at Arkansas. Logan Gilbert made nine starts at Double A and one at Triple A before his MLB debut. George Kirby made 11 starts at Double A and one at Triple A before his call-up.
Cijntje in currenting the No. 90 prospect at MLB.com. Miller peaked at No. 98 and No. 100 at MLB.com and Baseball America while Woo was never ranked on a preseason Top 100 prospect list.
Seattle prospects Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan may have higher ceilings, but Cijntje has value.
December 19, 2025 at 10:52 pm #297910
jj-cf-stlParticipantWell there’s my vote for reply of the year, 25’s spreadsheet and commentary!
👏👏👏👏
December 20, 2025 at 1:53 am #297913Just throwing this out there…. If Philly doesn’t resign Realmuto Crooks would be a great fit for them.
Very Equal WAR if averaged out projections, and 6 years of control. Gage Wood would be an ideal.
Under $800k for the same results then 5 more years of control of a catcher that has made top 100 listsDecember 20, 2025 at 8:19 am #297916FYI, I was curious about any rules for 2027 and thought others might be as well.
MILB seasons generally proceed as scheduled during an MLB lockout because most minor league players aren’t union members covered by the MLB (CBA). The main exception is players on a Major League Baseball team’s 40-man roster, who are MLBPA members and must honor the lockout, meaning they can’t play in the minors until it ends, but other prospects and non-40-man players continue to play, often gaining more attention.
Key Points:
Union Status Matters: The distinction is between players
Non-40-Man Roster Players: Free to play, develop, and generate revenue for their teams.
40-Man Roster Players: Stuck in limbo; they can’t play in MLB or affiliated minor league games until the lockout ends.
Increased Exposure: When MLB is shut down, minor league games (especially Triple-A) often get more media coverage and fan attention, as seen in the 2022 lockout.
Development Continues: For non-40-man prospects, it’s a chance to get valuable playing time and development that might otherwise be missed.December 20, 2025 at 9:45 am #297918That sure sounds right to me. I want to say something related although not really on topic. And that is, as proven by decades of recurrent negotiations, the owners always lose. They can’t stand the pain of having to eat their overhead, which for the Cardinals is approximately 401 support staff, according to mudville’s last count.. So the owners always, ultimately, give in. The players, on the other hand, have zero overhead. Plus many of them are wealthy in their own right, and if not wealthy, their parents will gladly put them up for as long as necessary. When you think about it, that might be the very reason that it costs so much to go to a baseball game.
December 20, 2025 at 10:25 am #297920That reminds me. Mudville, the other day, you mentioned you had difficulty finding information about the Cardinals increased investment in player development. Just yesterday, I posted a subscriber article going into this in great detail, updating work I did a year ago at this time. If you haven’t seen it, it is here.
I am very proud to say this is analysis you won’t find anywhere else.
Insight on Cardinals’ 2026 Player Development and Performance Assignments
December 20, 2025 at 11:35 am #297928That is an amazing assembly of information Brian. A lot of smoke, lets hope there is a lot of fire.
December 20, 2025 at 11:59 am #297930Thank you, bling. The proof will be in the players who come out the other end.
Last year at this time, I was a bit skeptical, especially when several local media folks, who have little to no history with the minor leagues, were lauding the Cardinals for “creating” new positions. Many of them had actually existed previously, but had been cut over the prior five or six years under Mo and Gary LaRocque. But they didn’t know that.
The best way to get past the smoke is to dig into the details. That is what I did. I am more comfortable that the people investments are being made.
December 20, 2025 at 11:59 am #297931Thanks for the thorough information Brian. I am pleased to see the Cardinals finally make these kinds of investments.
My only wish is that Elvis Rodriguez make it to Memphis. I mean with that name come on.
December 20, 2025 at 12:02 pm #297932Elvis did leave one building for another and is working his way up. Seems like a hard worker and is knowledgable. Baez’ improvement started on his watch in Peoria, so that is something tangible.
Some of our posters have been critical of the Peoria coaching, but he must be an exception. Maybe having some good hitters there like Rodriguez and Ortiz and Jesus Baez, helped a bit. 😉
December 21, 2025 at 5:48 pm #297994We never really saw the details of Pozo’s deal. And I can’t find a thing but he’s obviously on the 40 man.
So this question is related to a 137 IP/3.21 ERA guy in AAA last year. Could he be signed to a minor league deal with some sort of guarantee that he gets added to the 40 man and/or 26 man when the first player goes to the 60 day DL?
The Cards are going to need innings in 2026, and they are far from even close right now.
December 21, 2025 at 6:57 pm #297996Wilson going to red sox.
December 21, 2025 at 7:19 pm #298001When the red red Dobbins comes bob bob bobbin along.
Plus two A ball pitchers.December 23, 2025 at 4:45 am #298115
jj-cf-stlParticipantThe A’s trade for NYM McNeill and assume 10mil of his rental contracts total cost, and send long shot suspects in return.
Fangraphs had McNeills 2025 value at 16.9mil so the Mets ate alot. Deep pockets I guess.
Fangraphs had Arenado’s value at 6.8mil last season. These McNeill type trades are what Bloom is competing with, to move Arenado’s contract.
December 25, 2025 at 3:47 am #298219I wonder if the Cards have any interest in JoshStaumont? He might be had on a minor league deal, with an NRI to spring training. Also, Curtis Taylor is still a free agent.
December 25, 2025 at 11:22 am #298231Also, Curtis Taylor is still a free agent.
The Cardinals might bring him in as their “veteran innings eater”!!!!
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