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When you look at the Cardinals’ system, it’s not unrealistic to think that St. Louis may be only a few short years from possibly winning their 12th World Series.
Happy Holidays to all!
Harmony, so the Mariners will always be the bridesmaid and never the bride in October
?
They do need to give a little to get anything good back….
They would still stay under their made up number.Seattle’s current options at second base:
Cole Young, a 22-year-old former Top 60 prospect whom FanGraphs projects with a 2026 WAR of 1.6 in 91 games. Young started 68 regular-season games at second base this year.
Leo Rivas, a 28-year-old who started at second base in the final four postseason game after posting 0.8 fWAR in 48 games during the regular season. FanGraphs projects Rivas with a 2026 WAR of 0.6 in 42 games.
Ryan Bliss, this year’s now 26-year-old Opening Day starter (starting 11 of the first 12 games before being derailed by injuries). FanGraphs projects Bliss with a 2026 WAR of 0.3 in 26 games.
Brendan Donovan may be an upgrade over any of these three individuals but the Mariners may choose to spread their risk by betting on a breakout by any of these three players.
Seattle is interesting because if you look at their current team, there’s not an obvious route for them to win the pennant besides getting an all time great season from their catcher and having a few others punch above their weight. Their rotation has great potential and probably will be a little better in 2026 than it was in 2025. But they are looking a little rough at 2B (I laugh at the “Cole Young=Brendan Donovan” comparisons, even by Steamer), 3B, and corner OF. Which happens to be where Donovan helps you out with his versatility. It’s definitely not as simple for the Ms as saying they would be paying for a small upgrade from Young to Donovan. They would be upgrading three positions, and probably would be getting Donovan’s full value over what they have at the moment at 2B, 3B and RF plus some DH value.
I’ll ask this of our Mariners friend…would you personally make any trade involving Donovan for Sloan or Anderson, including if the Cards had to add another player (such as Romero or O’Brien), or is your break point the Cijntje/Arroyo tier? I’m curious how other fan bases think. The Mariners have a short open window with a unique talent in Raleigh being in his prime, and the chances that Sloan vs Cijntje really make or break the team in 3-5 years seems so low that it seems odd that the deal hasn’t been made already (of course we don’t know that it’s Sloan that the Cards are holding out for exactly).
I feel like many fans underestimate the value of having a talent like Donovan on board. There are 35 hitters Donovan’s age or younger who have a higher wRC+ since 2022 than Brendan. None of them have his versatility to play all over the field. That’s what you’re acquiring. Cards fans will happily keep him, while understanding that trading him for the best return is probably best for the team’s long term future.
Brendan Donovan is a solid everyday MLB who has averaged 2.4 or 2.5 WAR over the past three seasons. Donovan has averaged only 123 games per year over this first four MLB seasons, including only 118 games in 2025.
In his age 21 season, Dovovan played 57 college games at South Alabama and only four professional games in the short-season New York-Pennsylvania League. In his age 21 season, Cole Young played 77 games at the MLB level and 54 games at Triple A.
It’s a tough comparison.
Seattle has generally rushed Young and third baseman Ben Williamson, who made his MLB debut barely 21 months after being selected in the second-round of the 2023 draft. Williamson had played in only 188 minor league games.
The Mariners are indeed top heavy in position players. Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez have combined for 44.2 fWAR over the past four seasons, an average of 5.5 fWAR per player per year.
Two Top 100 prospects in Jurrangelo Cijntje and Michael Arroyo should be too much for Seattle to surrender for two years of a 2.5 WAR player (although FanGraphs projects Donovan with a 2026 WAR of 3.0 in a generous 133 games). Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson should remain off limits.
Wishing the Cardinals well in the rebuild (and the Mariners well coming off seasons of 90, 90, 88, 85 and 90 wins).
Very thoughtfully written, Stlcard25. That really sums it up. Thanks.
Now, do you know something that we don’t know about?
Okay, NyquisT, maybe I’m overvaluing the current rankings by TCN and the Community TCN. But I think I’m seeing several possible stars in the, say, top 25. I’m thinking Wetherholt, Doyle, Matthews*, Bernal, Clarke, Crooks, J. Baez, Hjerpe. Just to name a few that appear to be future MLB regulars. Plus, there is a lot of star potential scattered up and down the top 50, IMO. A lot of it. More so than in TCN 2025 ranking and TCN 2024 ranking, IMO. I just checked my Guides for those years.
*If Matthews doesn’t learn to grip the AAA baseball and get back the improved velo he had at AA, he might not be ranked so high going into 2027.
Donny – .373 OBP vs RHP’s in over 1500 career PA’s.
There might be a handful of teams looking at Donny as leadoff this winter.
While Carp was here he was a .366 obp, Donny is at .361
Two Top 100 prospects in Jurrangelo Cijntje and Michael Arroyo should be too much for Seattle to surrender for two years of a 2.5 WAR player (although FanGraphs projects Donovan with a 2026 WAR of 3.0 in a generous 133 games). Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson should remain off limits.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I believe we as fans are prone to the belief that we are getting a bad deal whenever we make a trade. Chances are that trading Cijntje and Arroyo for Donovan would be a big win in the Mariners’ favor. Mariners fans wouldn’t do it, and I personally would not like the return for Donovan if that’s what it came to. For whatever reason, the Mariners and Cards just seem to value guys differently, which makes trades more difficult. Seattle is on a nice little run, so hopefully they’ll get that pennant soon.
For whatever reason, the Mariners and Cards just seem to value guys differently,
This comes up every once in a while. Cardinal fans, especially here, over-value our players and prospects….. I think to a sizeable degree. That’s probably because they are the one’s that we read about…. check data on, check scouting reports etc etc. They are our guys our prizes….. and at times that blurs reality.
This comes up every once in a while. Cardinal fans, especially here, over-value our players and prospects….. I think to a sizeable degree. That’s probably because they are the one’s that we read about…. check data on, check scouting reports etc etc. They are our guys our prizes….. and at times that blurs reality.
Admittedly, I’m not high on Donovan and am happy that the Cards are attempting to trade him. I think by 2027, Wetherholt will be more valuable than Brendan easily and so cashing in now is a smart move. But I’m also not interested in trading him away for a poor return either, such as a gimmick pitcher or a redundant infielder. I understand that others feel differently. It would be nice if some other GM thought more highly of Donovan than myself, though.
Q. Has the price on Donovan come down?
Passan: Nope. And it’s not going to. The Cardinals don’t need to trade Brendan Donovan. They can move him at the deadline. They can move him next winter. His consistency is among his best attributes and his value is unlikely to crater between now and then. So Chaim Bloom is doing exactly what he should be doing: setting an extremely high price and know that teams valuing flexibility will continue wanting him.
(Shaking head back & forth) Maybe it’s just me, but it seems apparent to me that the Cardinals have no intention whatsoever of trading Donovan. They love this man and recognize his worth as both a player and a great guy to have in the clubhouse. His name is out there in the trade winds for one lone reason…….on the outside chance that some team may vastly overpay for his services. And that’s what it’s going to take for Donovan to be traded. It’s going to take a whale of package to send him packing…..and this is unlikely to occur.
And Seattle fans would wish Brendan Donovan well in the highly regarded Dodger franchise.
The Mariner front office likely knows when to walk away from trade negotiations.
The forum won’t let me submit a longer post.
I would doubt that Bloom or Dipoto have shut the door on negotiations for Donovan yet. Marte will be either trader or firmly in Arizona soon, which may open things up. I still think Seattle is Donny’s most likely landing spot, but it’s possible that the Cards hold him until the trade deadline. It’s unlikely that he’ll lose much, if any value by then. It’s possible that he’ll have a first half like last year and be more valuable at that point with a more limited market.
Just like last winter Bregman is holding things up and considering his agent is Boras he probably won’t be signing anytime soon. If Boston misses out on Bregman then Donnie might very well be their plan B. We already have two trades with them so you can’t rule out a third.
FanGraphs and ZiPS currently project Seattle with 2.5 and 2.2 WAR from second base (and 2.1 and 2.5 WAR from third base). FanGraphs projects Brendan Donovan with 3.0 WAR in 574 plate appearances.
Are the Mariners willing to part with a Top 100 prospect or two for that projected upgrade?
A fair trade is often painful for fans of both sides. No trade may be the less painful outcome.
The Just Baseball podcasters propose a trade of Brendan Donovan and Pedro Pages to Seattle for Jurrangelo Cijntje, catching prospect Luke Stevenson and infield prospect Nick Becker.
Cijntje was the No. 15 pick in the 2024 draft, Stevenson the No. 35 pick in the 2025 draft and Becker the No. 57 pick in the 2025 draft by a Seattle club that has drafted well over the past decade. MLB.com ranks Cijntje, Stevenson and Becker No. 7, No. 9 and No. 12 in the Mariner farm system.
Seattle would be reluctant to give up the high upsides of recent top draft picks.
If Boston misses out on Bregman then Donnie might very well be their plan B.
I think Paredes is the backup plan for Bregman. Donovan could be a complement to both.
The Just Baseball podcasters propose a trade of Brendan Donovan and Pedro Pages to Seattle for Jurrangelo Cijntje, catching prospect Luke Stevenson and infield prospect Nick Becker.
I don’t see any catchers involved in the trade.
Seattle just signed Knizner to be backup, and the Cardinals system is loaded in catchers. Cardinals need OF, 3B and pitching prospects.
Is there such a thing as team WAR? I don’t think so. But maybe there should be. It would seem that a player who brings this thing called ‘veteran presence’, or a player who brings Gold Glove caliber defense would merit Wins Above Replacement for a team. Obviously, this is very subjective and maybe impossible to verify. But there’s been talk for years about veteran presence, and I would think adding Gold Glove defense might have a similar sort of impact. Now I’m not advocating that the Mariners take on Arenado anymore. There is nothing to suggest that they have any interest in that for several reasons. Clearly, that ship has sailed. There’s been a lot of debate using WAR on this thread, and on many other threads as well. I’m only stating that, IMO, the metric of WAR is somewhat overvalued. It’s very objective, very logical, and people like working with it. But it’s often given an excessive amount of importance, IMHO. Just wanted to get that off my chest.
, the metric of WAR is somewhat overvalued.
The public models are very flawed. I would hope the models the teams use are better.
Is there such a thing as team WAR?
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=28
WAR can start a conversation but rarely provides the final answer. We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to established metric systems and to the subjective bald opinions of forum contributors.
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