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“From a Seattle perspective, Brendan Donovan has a certain Adam Frazier vibe … a lefthand-hitting second baseman who can play the outfield.”
“In my view Donovan is far and away the better baseball player than Adam Frazier in every area of the game, but yeah, they both stand in from the left side.”
The two players are similar superficially, but the numbers back you up, Andujar. Per 162 games (according to Baseball-Reference) Donovan has been worth 3.7 WAR for his career and Frazier just 2.1. Frazier was better than that in his 20’s, but basically what it boils down to is Brendan’s typical season is roughly equivalent to Frazier’s very best couple of campaigns.
Bloom is in a difficult situation because Donovan isn’t going to bring what the Cardinals base thinks he should. So does he get the best take he can and take the heat, or hide under the bed and do nothing? I’m not sure. I think the description above of Donovan as a ‘super sub’ is probably how other orgs see him. He’s a gold glove against other UTs, but likely not against regulars at any position. The 500 PAs suggested is likely only on a team as short of RH bats as the Cardinals, because Donovan has become a platoon hitter pretty useless vs LHP. (2025 vs LHP OPS .614, OPS+ 76). Bloom has to sell him as an everyday elitish 2B, and that would be a hard sell. His best use is as a super UT skillfully deployed to best advantage. That is not going to bring back what people are thinking.
1toughdominica and Bob Reed, thank you for the feedback.
A problem with citing WAR/162 stats for Brendan Donovan is that Donovan has averaged only 123 games per year over his first four MLB seasons. Since his 4.0 bWAR rookie season, Donovan has posted seasons of 1.9, 2.6 and 2.7 bWAR.
Frazier had averaged only 2.7 WAR per 162 games at the time of November 2021 trade coming off a 4.0 bWAR season. Donovan’s edge with his 3.7 WAR/162 stat is undercut by his inability to play a full complement of games.
Would anyone trade Brendan Donovan and Riley O’Brien to Seattle for two Top 100 prospects in Michael Arroyo (No. 63) and Jurrangelo Cijntje (No. 90), plus the Mariners’ Round B Comp Balance Pick?
Baseball Trade Values assigns each side of that trade a surplus value of $37 million.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/206275
O’Brien has a surplus value of $4.5 million and the comp pick a value of $2.5 million, according to Baseball Trade Values.
Bloom could take that. Think Donovan for Cijntje. O’Brien for Arroyo. Put the comp pick on whichever of those deals you think needs it. We like O’Brien, but he is likely a short term asset, just because relievers often are. They break down or lose their juju. Arroyo is a long term proposition. Donovan would help us for two seasons. Cinjntje is long term. Loading up on top 100 types for the new PD system to work with is what Bloom is trying to do, IMO.
Donovan’s a good baseball player, but I don’t think the Cardinals will receive anyone of any impact value at all for him in a trade. The days of shipping off guys named Bottenfield, Timlin, Looper or Kennedy and getting guys named Rolen, Edmonds, or Renteria in return are bygone days of lore. I don’t at all expect a guy named Chaim to have the ability to deal from a deck like a guy named Walt.
It would help the Mariners’ chances to win now by getting better at third base, second base, and, really, at first base, also. If they believe taht the prospects that they have can give them what they need, so be it. There’s a market for Donovan. There’s a team that doesn’t care if he’s going to be a free agent in a year because if they like him enough, they will extend him. If LaRussa could get any of Donovan, Romero, Arendao, or even Burleson for prospects, he would be all over it. Obviously, Bloom will eventually get the best deal he can.
Perhaps it is worth remembering that two years ago, the Mariners didn’t want O’Brien anymore. The Cardinals paid them cash for him. Maybe they are better at admitting mistakes than the Cardinals. Maybe not.
It seems obvious that Donovan was utility guy only because the Cardinals didn’t have a place to play him regularly. Gorman was at second base, Arenado was at third base, and they needed to get Burleson’s bat in lineup for his offense. But Donny is a gamer. He’ll play wherever they want him to.
Donovan is not a “super-sub.” He is an above average MLB regular whose defensive versatility also adds value beyond his simple WAR numbers, which are plenty good in and of themselves.
“Would anyone trade Brendan Donovan and Riley O’Brien to Seattle for two Top 100 prospects in Michael Arroyo (No. 63) and Jurrangelo Cijntje (No. 90), plus the Mariners’ Round B Comp Balance Pick?”
I absolutely would not make that trade. Because Donovan & O’Brien are in no way redundancies, and they cost almost no money. They are closer to necessities, if the Cardinals want to have a wildcard shot this year or next. And it is not clear at all, based on the StL front office behavior, what their intentions are in that regard.
I mean, I’ve heard it said again and again that they aren’t trying to win in 2026 — but then they spend twice as much on injury-riddled longshot Dustin May as they would have to pay Brendan Donovan in 2026. May is an overpaid, one-year, win-now acquisition. Hardly the mark of a “rebuild.”
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Just an aside: assuming the prospects have been ranked flawlessly, the 63rd-ranked minor leaguer will eventually put up a career WAR total of roughly 9 or 10, and the 90th prospect perhaps 6 career WAR. That’s simply not good enough, for a guy who’s halfway to a 20 WAR career and makes almost no money, plus a very good relief pitcher who makes nothing at all.
If I were dangling that Redbird pair as trade bait, I would insist on a top 25-35 type of prospect in return, kinda like when they traded for Tyler O’Neill.
This thread was rockin’ yesterday, very enjoyable reading, all.
55, I’ll pass on Arroyo and Cijnjte for Donny and O’Brien. The trade on BTV I would endorse is….
Arroyo 20.0 and Sloan 16.9 (36.9)
for
Donovan 32.5 and Romero 4.1 (36.6)
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Bill could take on Robles for Sea salary relief and a little compensation, but the base trade above targets Sloan, an untouchable.but then they spend twice as much on injury-riddled longshot Dustin May as they would have to pay Brendan Donovan in 2026. May is an overpaid, one-year, win-now acquisition.
I agree with the commentary, however, I don’t see May as a “win-now” move. He is a lottery ticket, where the Cardinals are hoping he will play well enough that he brings back a prospect haul at the deadline.
He somehow brought backs James Tibbs III and Zach Erhard at the deadline last year, who now rank as the Dodgers #8 & #27 prospects. Tibbs was drafted 13th overall in 2024, and Erhard was drafted in the 4th round.
If the Cardinals can con someone into giving up a similar prospect package at this year’s trade deadline, I am sure they will be ecstatic.
Bob – Love your post. I’ve never studied metrics and so don’t relate to them very well. I do understand that metrics are highly valued by many and are used as a tool to assess a players worth. I’m more of a common fan who goes by the eye test, and by intuition, and admittedly by pure emotions at times. I believe that my way of assessing is legitimate. Still, I do value the metrics and take them into consideration when someone offers them. So thanks again.
Ji-cf-stl – I’m pretty sure that the Mariners’ reluctance to trade Sloan or Anderson is not about winning. As they say ‘It’s the money, stupid. It’s always about the money’. If they have Sloan and Anderson, assuming that they both develop as anticipated, they won’t have to spend big bucks to extend one or two of their proven veteran pitchers. Without backups like Sloan and Anderson, the nearly destitute owner of the Mariners might have to borrow cash from, say, WDWJr.
Bob Reed
Donovan is not a “super-sub.” He is an above average MLB regular whose defensive versatility also adds value beyond his simple WAR numbers, which are plenty good in and of themselves.“Would anyone trade Brendan Donovan and Riley O’Brien to Seattle for two Top 100 prospects in Michael Arroyo (No. 63) and Jurrangelo Cijntje (No. 90), plus the Mariners’ Round B Comp Balance Pick?”
I absolutely would not make that trade. Because Donovan & O’Brien are in no way redundancies.
Donovan’s versatility is nice, but should be used more in the case of injury because he is, by far, most valuable playing 2B regularly, in which case he is redundant due to Wetherholt’s timeline.
There is no reason to hold out until the deadline to flip May. Based on the contracts that are being signed, if he’s healthy and effective, he’s a deal, and will bring a nice return. His arm is a ticking time bomb though, so no reason to tempt fate holding out for a little extra. Unless selling a few tickets in July is the priority.
Bling, I agree. If he has a solid April & May, flip him before the deadline. Don’t risk him breaking.
Donovan’s versatility is nice, but should be used more in the case of injury because he is, by far, most valuable playing 2B regularly, in which case he is redundant due to Wetherholt’s timeline.
Bob posted this summer that Donovan actually grades out best at 3B.
Gorman has been mentioned in a few trade rumors, and we know they are trying to ship out Arenado. So, what if they trade Arenado & Gorman instead of Arenado & Donovan?
I don’t think they will actually keep Donovan, but it could happen.
the 63rd-ranked minor leaguer will eventually put up a career WAR total of roughly 9 or 10, and the 90th prospect perhaps 6 career WAR. That’s simply not good enough, for a guy who’s halfway to a 20 WAR career
Thank you for the feedback.
The proposal includes only two years of Brendan Donovan, who has averaged 2.4 bWAR a year over the past three seasons. That projected aggregate return WAR of 15+ could favor the Cardinals even if Donovan averages his projected 3 WAR over his final two seasons of team control.
The proposal includes five years of reliever Riley O’Brien, who is projected with a 2026 WAR of 0.5. The deal also includes Seattle’s Round B Competitive Balance pick, currently at No. 70, which historically has averaged a modest career WAR of 1.7.
I didn’t see the defensive grades referenced, but they have to be based on a relatively small sample. The Cardinals only very rarely play Donovan at third (29 career starts) and none at all in 2025. Maybe some of it is because of the presence of Arenado, but you’d think they’d want to keep Donovan somewhat fresh at the position if it is considered a future potential need…
Bob, potential trade partners will look under the rug. They will find Donovan’s two years of control under there, and his inability to hit LHP.
Even if Stl helped Sea by taking back the salary of Robles, in Donovan / JoJo for Arroyo / Sloan, I think Stl owes service yrs back to Sea.
BTV includes yrs of control in their formula, but just looks at the balance difference of their values.
Three seasons control of Donny / Jojo should not bring 12+ plus of Sloan / Arroyo, leaving Sea uncompensated in control years from the depth it trades away. Maybe it’s a Gastelum type, but at least 6yrs control going back to Sea.
Is mlb using comp picks as a way of transferring control years? Pick your own guy? I saw stlcard25 using them in proposals. That would add a way to not trade talent a club has begun to develop, but I’m un-sure about comp picks overall. Lol, am I catching up, or getting off course?!?
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