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Right after I posted that I saw Luke Weaver got 2/22 from the Mets…. Good lord Jojo’s value just went up!
Sloan and Montes for Donnie and Jojo actual seems fair now, especially for a very “win now” team with a strict budget.
Seattle podcasters used the Randy Arozarena trade at the 2024 deadline as a baseine for a Brendan Donovan trade to the Mariners this offseason.
Arozarena, who was 29 years old at the time of the trade, had posted 13.7 fWAR (12.0 bWAR) in 587 games at that point in his career. Donovan, who turns 29 next month, has posted 10.1 fWAR (11.1 bWAR) in 492 career games.
At the time of the trade, Arozarena came with two years and two months of team control and about $2.8 million left on his 2024 salary of $8.1 million. This year Arozarena earned $11.1 million in the third of four arbitration seasons. MLB Trade Rumors projects a 2026 salary of $18.2 million in his final arbitration year.
Donovan has two years of team control with a projected 2026 salary of $5.4 million in the second of three arbitration seasons.
Arozarena’s higher salaries tend of offset the value of his additional two months of team control.
Seattle acquired Arozarena for outfielder Aidan Smith and right-hander Brody Hopkins, who were then the No. 12 and No. 22 prospects in the Mariner farm system.
https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-trade-randy-arozarena-for-two-prospects
Should Brendan Donovan command a greater return in a trade to Seattle this offseason?
Harmony, short answer is yes. Position(s), consistency, supply and demand, much lower salary for a team that says they are headed to bankruptcy (see:De-lost-his-wallet). That not good at all SS for the Braves just got $20M!
Sloan and Montes will cost the Cards Donnie and Jojo and maybe another piece to SEA, but it’s a win win for both sides.
Two years of Brendan Donovan and one year of JoJo Romero is unlikely to bring back two MLB.com Top 50 prospects in Lazaro Montes (No. 29) and Ryan Sloan (No. 44).
Steamer600 projects Donovan with a 2026 WAR of 3.1 and returning Seattle second baseman Cole Young with a 2026 WAR of 2.4. Steamer600 is generous to Donovan, who has averaged only 123 games per year over his first four MLB seasons.
The Mariners are not desperate in a second base trade market that includes Ketel Marte, Brandon Lowe, Jeff McNeil, Jake Cronenworth and, perhaps, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Nico Hoerner. This year all but one posted a higher fWAR than Donovan.
The Seattle Mariners franchise is not headed to bankruptcy, landing ahead of the Cardinals in revenue and operating income in 2024:
https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#header:valueList
Was the cheap shot at Jerry Dipoto necessary after Baseball America recently named Seattle’s PBO the 2025 Executive of the Year?
https://www.mlb.com/news/mariners-jerry-dipoto-named-baseball-america-2025-executive-of-the-year
55, is it fair to assume SEA has about 16mil to spend this winter without getting creative?
How many of those 2B names fit the budget while meeting the remaining offseasons needs?
Harmony55, since I presume that you are a Mariners fan, I’ll answer your question as to whether Donovan deserves a better return than Arozarena got. The answer is yes. The Cardinals have no reason to accept a poor offer (which a 45 and a 40 prospect would be) because there’s no reason they absolutely have to trade Donovan. Fans here will happily keep him if all the team gets is lowball offers.
FWIW, I don’t want Montes. We have two of him already (Gorman and Walker) and neither has provided much of any value. Cardinals fans can tell you that prospect clutching really does have a downside. Sloan is a really nice pitcher and I understand why the Mariners would not want to let him go. We will see if one team or the other backs down from their asking price as the postseason goes along. I do think that Donovan would be a big help in getting them a ring, which is really all that means anything long term in this game.
Tampa was dumping Arozarena and SEA knew the arbs they were signing up for. Tampa took what return they could get.
Stl can cherry pick a trade, from a handful of offers. The trade comp doesn’t matchup well with the costs being sizably different. And yes, I expect better than Hopkins plus.
I still think Arenado should be part of the package. The Cardinals could eat $15M and the Mariners could eat $5M this year and defer payment of the remaining $10M or so to the Cardinals over the next year or two. Arenado thrives on winning and fan adulation. That’s why he forced the Rockies to trade him to St. Louis. I remember reading at the time that Matt Holliday told him that playing in St. Louis was like playing in no other place. Holliday’s comment at the time was something like ‘A week night in the middle of August, and playing before a packed stadium of fans reacting to every pitch and every play.’ Hopefully, it will be that way again in St. Louis. I’m sure the smoldering passion for baseball will turn back into that raging fire again.
Mud, with all due respect…adding Arenado to a Donovan deal would only nerf the return. I am pretty sure that would defeat the purpose of trading away our best realistic trade chip.
I’m sure the smoldering passion for baseball will turn back into that raging fire
Sure hope it happens soon Mud. I like winning as much as the next guy, but that passion for the game is what I miss most.
Indeed, in a crowded second base trade market, Brendan Donovan’s value derives more from his modest projected salary than from his on-field production.
Yes, a trade of Brendan Donovan should command a greater return than the July 2024 trade of Randy Arozarena from Tampa Bay to Seattle. However, Cardinal fans should temper their expectations.
If Donovan plays 2B everyday, is he a GG candidate going up against regular 2Bmen rather than up against UTs?
stlcard25 – I’m thinking that the Cardinals need to open up 3B for Wetherholt, although I understand that many posters want to Wetherholt at 2B. I get that. But, I think that Arenado’s defense alone could give the Mariners 2 or 3 more wins than anybody else they could put on 3B. Add to that his veteran presence which would mean something, maybe a lot. Finally, Arenado has been my favorite player since he came to St. Louis. I want to see him get a ring. There’s some kind of deal possible that could send Arenado along with Donovan and, possibly, Romero to Seattle without diminishing the return for St. Louis. The two sides just need to get off being afraid to make a mistake and find a deal that’s fair to both sides.
I think that Arenado’s defense alone could give the Mariners 2 or 3 more wins than anybody else they could put on 3B.
It’s funny that we need to trade him because he is bad and blocking younger players, but other teams need to trade for him to block younger players because he is good.
I think that Arenado’s defense alone could give the Mariners 2 or 3 more wins than anybody else they could put on 3B.
FWIW Steamer600 projects Nolan Arenado with a 2026 WAR of 2.2 and returning Seattle third baseman Ben Williamson with a 2026 WAR of 1.9:
55, I have tempered my expectations for the 26man, especially concerning the W/L.
For Cardinal Nation to temper their expectations while trading back our talent for prospects, is eliminating the hope that every rebuild buys into.
While hope is a very weak strategy, it can also be offset by producing numerous jewels from the farm, as is our Cardinal history.
Now Cardinal ownership demands of themselves that they becoming even better at developing. Make a strength stronger, and this winter is starting to demonstrate an urgency to improve quickly, after recent complacency and dwindling player budget funds.
The stl FO hasn’t tampered expectations since free agency started, and I see no reason to either.
I enjoy your replies 55. Are you a fan of both teams?
Thank you for the compliment.
I am a Seattle fan who escapes the Mariner blogosphere to access outside perspectives.
DO NOT TRADE DONOVAN
Don’t worry GameCard. This chat about him being traded is ridiculous……he’s not going anywhere.
55, somewhere upthread I have a proposal of Donovan and Burleson for Robles and an untouchable prospect, plus. It uses about 3mil of SEA budget to acquire both for 2026, who combined for 5fwar in 2025.
Do you think SEA would make a “win now” trade this winter, at the cost of Anderson OR Sloan? Or hold Anderson / Sloan, and hope youth and low budget backfills can fill the lineup voids in 2026 until the deadline?
For me, it’s justifiable that SEA has the roster to “go for it”.
jj-cf-stl, Seattle’s “untouchables” are probably just that … untouchable.
Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson are attractive to a Seattle club that hopes to reduce its strikeout rate among position players. Donovan and Burleson are good, everyday MLB players but neither is elite. The Mariners would likely trade Kade Anderson or Ryan Sloan only in a deal for an elite player. Donovan and Burleson are a grade above “low budget backfills.”
Last season the Mariners finished second in the American League with a team OPS+ of 113 but 11th in the league with a team ERA+ of 98. A FanGraphs caption to the preliminary ZiPS projections released this week read: “There’s a high probability the Mariners enter 2026 with the most projected wins in the American League …”
FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski noted “I’m not sure an acquisition like Brendan Donovan, who is said to be available in trade, is necessary, though Donovan specifically could have a lot of value as a 500 plate appearance supersub if that’s the way the Mariners wanted to roll.”
The Mariners look to improve this offseason despite the optimistic projections.
Despite the optimistic projections the Mariners will be kicking themselves if they fall short when they had the chance to win big by winning now. As far as the Mariners acquiring a demonstrably elite player, why even bother to bring it up? The Mariners can’t afford it. BTW, I’m okay with letting Burleson go in the right deal because I like the idea of Ivan Herrera playing first base for the Cardinals. I also believe that Arenado would help them at third base for reasons previously stated. For the Mariners to not make some sort of big move move would be kind of weak, kind of small time, IMO.
From a Seattle perspective, Brendan Donovan has a certain Adam Frazier vibe … a lefthand-hitting second baseman who can play the outfield.
In November 2021 the Mariners traded Corey Rosier and Ray Kerr to San Diego for one year of Frazier, who was coming off a 3.3 fWAR (4.0 bWAR) season and his only All Star appearance. Donovan is coming off a 2.9 fWAR (2.7 bWAR) season and his only All Star appearance.
Frazier earned $8 million in his only season with the Mariners; Donovan is projected to earn $5.4 million in his penultimate season before free agency.
Frazier and Donovan exceeded expectations after being drafted in the sixth and seventh rounds out of Deep South universities. Donovan is one year younger today than Frazier was at the time of his trade in the 2021-22 offseason.
In his lone season with the Mariners, Frazier posted 1.3 fWAR (0.9 bWAR) in 156 games as Seattle secured its first postseason berth in 21 years.
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