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A source told Morosi the D-backs are confident they won’t need to include cash to move Greinke, who is owed more than $90 million over the next three years.
I’m all for this if it means we are getting rid of Fowler.
Trade Fowler as part of a Greinke package, or trade him for Carlos Santana.
Then sign Brantley for RF.
Though, I think I would rather see the Cardinals trade Adolis Garcia to Tampa for Joe McCarthy.
I saw they were looking to acquire Segura and Leake from the Mariners, which is ridiculous since Segura alone is worth a lot more than Myers
Agreed, I don’t understand the discussion from the Mariners perspective at all. DiPoto is saying they are aiming for 2021. How does Myers help them? Get young, controllable talent.
I have Fowler batting 2nd the first half, anyone else?
I am hoping the Cardinals make him earn his playing time and start him off as the 4th outfielder until he proves willing to play defense (if they can’t move him in a trade).
I still only see two possible ways to get rid of Fowler. Send him back to AZ as part of Greinke deal, or send him to Philadelphia for Carlos Santana.
As for getting a closer, before I trade for one, I would see what the market is like on Jeurys Familia, Kelvin Herrera and Zach Britton. Unless Seattle will trade Alex Colome (two years remaining – the magic number!!!) straight up for JMart.
I would not trade Wacha AND Weaver as part of a Greinke deal. One or the other…
I also don’t see why Arizona would take JMart as part of a deal. They are in the NL, and he is going to be as bad or worse in AZ as he is in STL.
Arizona eating $35 million on Greinke is $12 million per year.
Fowler makes $16.5 million per year. If they bet on Fowler being worth $4.5 million per year (a very low bar), it’s worth it to take on his contract.
They are going to have limited suitors for Greinke, probably less than 5 teams.
Part of the reason they are willing to trade Goldschmidt is they won’t be able to sign him next year if they still have Greinke, and there is no point if they can’t replace Greinke + Corbin in the rotation, as well as Pollock in the OF.
Most teams, especially financially challenged teams like the Diamondbacks, would prefer to stay competitive than go through a long tear-down, just due to the loss of revenues associated with a tear down. That’s why KC tried to keep it going as long as possible.
I agree – if they trade Goldschmidt, it’s too lessen the burden of Greinke’s contract.
But if the Cardinals take on Greinke + Goldschmidt, that is $50 million increase in payroll. The only other team that has the purse strings to do that is Philadelphia, but they have Rhys Hoskins who they are trying to move back to 1st.
I suppose the Yankees could do it, but they’ve stated they are no longer interested in exceeding the luxury tax threshold and having other teams use that money against them….
My logic for sending Fowler back is they’d be clearing $50 million. They lose Pollock, Pollock will actually be making more than Fowler…
Now, in order to send Fowler back, you have to add in some prospects.
Greinke = Fowler + Weaver (and saving $15 million per year) + Adolis Garcia (insurance for Fowler)
Goldshmidt = Carson Kelly + pitcher like Gant (he doesn’t net much because there is only one year on his contract). Probably need one more prospect to make it work…
I think the Cardinals are determined to add a middle-of-the-order bat, something they’ve been lacking for years.
Addition by subtraction: Get rid of Fowler & Cecil.
I think we can trade JMart to Seattle for Colome.
The Cardinals have done TWO trades of multiple prospects for a starting player during Mozeliak’s eleven year tenure. For Matt Holiday and Marcell Ozuna. They aren’t going to do it for a reliever.
Whether Taylor Rogers becomes available will depend on what else Minnesota does this offseason. If they get some decent free agents or make some trades, Rogers won’t be available.
I don’t know. A package of Greinke + Goldshmidt is actually quite attractive, other than the money to Greinke and the one year of Goldschmidt.
I’d still try to send Fowler back, since they are losing Pollock.
Maybe (Weaver or Hudson) + Carson Kelly + Fowler + Adolis Garcia + (one other pitcher)?
I suppose another way to dump Fowler’s contract would be to trade him to the Phillies for Carlos Santana.
Philadelphia has the 3rd smallest ballpark, so Fowler might be able to play defense there.
Phillies want to trade Santana and move Hoskins back to 1st.
Santana is owed $41 million over the next two seasons, with a $17.5 million club option for 2021.
Let’s make one final attempt:
We can all agree “replacement” DOES NOT EQUAL “average” or “mean”.
In the study of statistics, you use the mean, or average, in your computations. NOT “replacement level” or any other fictitious benchmark.
When the people who created WAR and DRS tell you they are using “replacement level” in their computations instead of the mean, they are telling you 2 + 2 = 5, and you are accepting it.
I say that you should replace “Replacement” with “Average” because the use of “Replacement” is invalid. All the sabremetrics fans out there and cry you can’t do that, because they are not the same. THAT IS EXACTLY THE POINT. They are telling you to your face they are not using accepted statistical methods, and nobody cares.
I went back to my earlier spreadsheet and inserted the total runs given up by each team, and calculated the implied runs given up by each replacement level team when you add in DRS. What does it show? If you were to pit the Replacement Level teams against the actual major league teams, five of the seven best teams would have been replacement level teams.
GARBAGE IN = GARBAGE OUT
Team DRS Total Runs Given up by Team Implied Runs of Replacement Team Unearned Runs Difference
Diamondbacks 157 644 801 39 118
Brewers 112 659 771 53 59
Braves 59 657 716 50 9
A’s 61 674 735 53 8
Rays 52 646 698 44 8
Cubs 42 645 687 47 -5
Astros 26 534 560 31 -5
Padres 48 767 815 54 -6
Marlins 39 809 848 47 -8
Dodgers 46 610 656 56 -10
Indians 27 648 675 37 -10
Angels 49 722 771 60 -11
Royals 24 833 857 47 -23
Giants 33 699 732 58 -25
Cardinals 40 691 731 69 -29
Yankees 26 669 695 58 -32
Twins 20 775 795 54 -34
Tigers 24 796 820 70 -46
Rockies -1 745 744 46 -47
Rangers 7 848 855 65 -58
Reds 8 819 827 78 -70
Mariners -23 711 688 47 -70
Red Sox -31 647 616 39 -70
Nationals -55 682 627 33 -88
Pirates -37 693 656 56 -93
Mets -76 707 631 46 -122
White Sox -56 848 792 76 -132
Blue Jays -99 832 733 60 -159
Orioles -94 892 798 72 -166
Phillies -146 728 582 63 -2092016. Wow! I am not a WAR guru but I was on the fence as to whether you new what you were talking about. Now I know that clearly you dont. Replacement does not equal average. In fact, the average major league positional starter is considered about 2 wins above replacement. I have no problem with reading a good debate about WAR, but you have to understand the basics!
Don’t the basics start with understanding statistics?
I’m saying using “replacement level” instead of “mean” (which is the average in case you weren’t aware) is junk science.
They offer obtuse explanations as to what they are doing, such that you even admit you don’t know what they are doing, yet you consider yourself a sabremetrics believer.
When the data is shown to be wonky, you blindly accept the data because you are told it is valid.
You willingly toss aside everything you learned in statistics, and you attack people who don’t believe in the junk science you subscribe to, because they are unwilling to accept a fictional “replacement” value that constantly moves, because, you know, they actually studied statistics and subscribe to an accepted science that has been around for centuries.
But this is how WAR became accepted.
So, carry on.
I totally agree I would like the Cardinals to go after elite level players in their primes, I just don’t believe they will.
Replacement does not equal average.
Show me one statistical calculation in any statistics text book based on replacement level rather than the mean.
Want to make a wager?
This is what happens when people are spoon fed statistics that are based on junk science
As for the Phillies, I think most baseball people readily acknowledge that less range results in fewer errors.
Do you believe all the Phillies have less range than all the replacement level players?
2016, doesn’t your analysis of run differentials fail to take in to account differences in pitching staffs? Fielders can’t save runs that aren’t saveable.
Ahhh…yes. But here’s the deal. Defensive players are graded on every play, right?
Now, is it better to grade them relative to the fictitional replacement level player or the mean?
Is it better to grade them relative to where the ball landed? Or how far away they were from where the ball landed, the hang time or speed with which the ball got there, and whether or not the average fielder could have thrown a particular player out?
Notice, WAR was created before the Statcast era. With statcast you can actually measure all these things, right?
OK – now that we’ve talked data standards, let’s talk statistical computations:
– What is the formula for standard deviation? Does it use the mean in the calculation, or the “replacement level”?
– What is the formula for variance? Does it use the mean or replacement level?
– What is the formula for covariance? Does it use the mean or replacement level?
– When you conduct a hypothesis test, do you compare the observation to the mean or the replacement level?
If all these statistics use the mean, why do sites like Fangraphs and Baseball Reference use replacement level? What universe is baseball in that accepted methods of statistical analysis don’t apply?
