What 40-man roster crunch?

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This topic contains 115 replies, has 17 voices, and was last updated by Brian Walton Brian Walton 6 months, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #71889
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    14NyquisT
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    The 40-man roster is presently full (40). Reyes-Wacha-Gregerson-Fowler will be added post-WS.(44) Free agents Wainwright-Norris-Ross-Pena-Adams (39). Wainwright’s spot is his choice (40)?

    Top prospects that need protection Helsley-Shrock-Cabrera-Fernandez-Urias-Ynfante (46 w/AW). Now what do you do?

    #71890
    Brian Walton
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    This is a relatively minor point, but why do you list Pena as a free agent?

    #71892
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    14NyquisT
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    This is from an MLB.com story:

    1. Who will be a free agent?
    Right-handers Bud Norris, Tyson Ross and Adam Wainwright, catcher Francisco Pena and first baseman Matt Adams.

    #71893
    Brian Walton
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    Ok, but did they say WHY they believe that Pena is a free agent? I do not understand. He does not have enough service time to even qualify for arbitration, let alone free agency. I believe that as long as he remains on the 40-man roster and has less than six years of service time, the Cardinals control his rights, but I am very interested in learning why if that is not the case.

    I highly doubt he got a special agreement to become a free agent early, like Oh and Mikolas. In his case, he is trying to hold onto a 40-man spot by his fingernails. Seems like the very last thing he would want is an early out after finally finding a home.

    #71894
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    14NyquisT
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    In case some didn’t see this grading of the Cards in 2018 by PD’s Gordo:

    https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/final-report-card-grading-the-cardinals-pitchers/collection_11228416-d26a-5172-b067-3368ce352c16.html#4

    This may help some who want to decide on the roster pile-up. I think that his grades are for the most part very fair.

    #71895
    stlcard25
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    Waino isn’t resigned. Shrock, Fernandez, Infante aren’t rostered. Urias probably isn’t either. Then you have trades.

    #71896
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    Cardinals27
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    Greg Garcia likely to be non tendered.

    #71897
    Brian Walton
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    … and Pena is a prime release/outright candidate …

    For those who care about the details:

    The difference between non-tender and release (or outright) here is in the timing. Teams do not have to make tender/non-tender decisions on contracts for next season until December. However, to help them for Rule 5, for which rosters are set before Thanksgiving, they would need to clear the roster spot sooner, hence the player could be released earlier instead.

    For example, last winter, the Cards released Rosenthal in early November so they could re-use his 40-man spot ahead of Rule 5 protection deadline.

    So, if they want to re-use Garcia’s spot for Rule 5, he will need to be released before December. Or if they wait and non-tender him in December, they can still use the spot for another purpose afterward (free agent, trade, etc.)

    #71898
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    Cardinals27
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    A Degrom trade could ease the roster crunch. I didn’t realize he is one of the rare birds with 4 arbitration years thru 2020. Any deal surely would have to have some sort of contract extending window. Or perhaps buy out the arbitration years. Maybe Hudson, Kelly and another prospect could be in the deal?

    #71901
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    If I was a GM with roster flexibility I would take at least 1 player available in the Rule 5 draft every year. It’s a pretty cheap lottery ticket. Especially in the minor league phase where you simply keep the player.

    #71902
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    CariocaCardinal
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    Or the Cards could do what they did with Seth Manness and leave him on the roster through the rule 5 draft and then non tender him. I never understood that. I can only figure that they still felt there was the possibility of a getting something for him in trade. How, I dont know how since I believe he was coming off TJ surgery. All in all it was a strange decision.

    #71904
    Brian Walton
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    On Rule 5, I have detailed records back to 2002. The only MLB addition to matter was Matt Bowman. The only minor leaguer to register is John Brebbia. Interestingly, they were both picked up in the 2015 Rule 5.

    In terms of Rule 5 losses, Luis Perdomo (the second one) has the best career to date. No one lost on the minor league side in that period had any real MLB accomplishments.

    #71907
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    Cardinals27
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    Best Rule 5 players picked include Roberto Clemente, Josh Hamilton Bobby Bonilla, and Johan Santana. Granted, the odds of getting one of those is like having the winning $100,000 ticket on the lottery.

    #71926
    Brian Walton
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    MLB Trade Rumors usually does a very thorough job of tracking free agents. Pena is not among their list of catchers to become free agents this fall.

    Here is the link.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html

    I found a list of all free agents across MLB at MLB’s own site. Again, no Pena among catchers.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274

    I still think whoever wrote the article you reference erred.

    #71930
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    Cardinals27
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    Spotrac says Pena is currently in year 1 arbitration. Like Brian said, non tender is very possible.

    #71948
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    gscottar
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    Jeff Gordon stated in one of his recent articles that he didn’t think Mo and Girsch were losing much sleep over the 40 man roster because, in his opinion, there were several players they could get rid of that they wouldn’t miss.

    #71965
    Brian Walton
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    gscottar, I am not sure how to interpret your wording. Whose opinion is the FO not losing sleep? Is that Gordo’s own assessment (not very interesting to me) or is he reporting Mo and Girsch’s view (very relevant)?

    FWIW, in the past when I asked Mo about 40-man issues, his response was similar. (However, I have not posed the question lately.)

    #71966
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    gscottar
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    It was from two Q&A’s from his October 5 chat. I would interpret them as Gordon’s opinions.

    With the cardinals facing yet another 40-man crunch this year, do you see the cardinals hitting the ground running as soon as the W.S. Is over?
    by Rob P October 5 at 1:53 PM
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    I don’t see a huge 40-man roster crunch. A bunch chunk of that current list is occupied by depth guys. Mozeliak made some in-season moves to alleviate some of the crunch. But, yes, there will be activity as the team tries to define its bullpen for next season, add some power and maybe, just maybe, reduce its army of utility infielders.
    by Jeff Gordon October 5 at 1:56 PM

    What do you think the Cardinals will do with the 40-man roster with six top prospects vulnerable to the Rule 5 draft?
    by Danimal October 5 at 2:04 PM
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    A quick look at the current 40-man roster (excluding 60-day DL guys) identified at least 10 guys that don’t need to be there. One interesting case: Outfielder Justin Williams, because he hits from the left side.I’d keep Sosa for his potential over Greg Garcia. I don’t imagine Mozeliak and Girsch are suffering sleepless nights over this.
    by Jeff Gordon October 5 at 2:07 PM

    • This reply was modified 9 months, 1 week ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #71968
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    Bw52
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    my two cents worth;
    Adams,Ross,Norris, gone Free agency.
    Wainwright FA who comes back on a team friendly deal.
    Greg Garcia-released or packaged on fringes of a bigger trade.( Schrock,Edman,Sosa,Munoz possible backup utilty player options)
    Tyler Webb LP-outrighted with the Cards wanting him to go to Memphis.Maybe NRI spring training?(Shreve,maybe Gomber LH options)
    Gregerson-released-Cards eat 5.5 million( Leone,Hudson,Weaver,Gallegos,Brebbia,Helsley all possibles-Helsley will likely be added to 40-man roster IMHO).

    trade bait-Gyorko,Cecil,Mayers,JMartinez-I think all 3 will be traded……Cecil for whatever Cards can get and hoping some team will eat some of his salary.
    Gyorko-some team will want a 3B with some pop and decent defense.
    Mayers-hard throwing RP might bring something .
    Jose Martinez-some team will want his bat /his defense makes him a liability IMO.

    Genesis Cabrera LHP,Lane Thomas OF,Ryan Helsley RHP added tp 40-man IMHO.

    #71980
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    CariocaCardinal
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    I dont see 10 excess guys on the 40 man roster. First I am sure Gordo is including Fowler, Cecil, and Gregerson in that total. But I dont see the team releasing Fowler and his contract. I dont see them releasing Gregerson based on 12 injury riddled innings. They may have seen enough of Cecil but given the lack of other LH reliever options and his $15 million still owed that would seem tough also. And 10 would only cover the 6 spots for guys they need to protect and guys coming off the 60 day DL. Any free agent adds would require additional removals unless Mo can figure out how to do some 2 for one trades.

    #71982
    Brian Walton
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    I agree, CC. 10 excess guys is an overstatement, unless he included the four impending free agents and three you mention. Being purposely vague means he cannot be pinned down. Not to be rude, but I wonder what the depth of his minors knowledge is.

    #72013
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    gscottar
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    I wasn’t suggesting that Gordo was a minor league guru (I suspect he isn’t) but just pointing out that this notion that he have momentous 40 man decisions looming is not universally accepted.

    My impression of him is someone who speaks in broad overviews and tends to be an optimistic homer but he seldom does a deep dive into the details.

    #72016
    Brian Walton
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    On that we agree, gscottar. The decisions this year are no tougher than past years, IMO. Unless the Cards do something stupid like leaving Helsley exposed, there seems no way there could be as much fan angst this year as when Allen Cordoba was lost to those cheating, no-good Padres.

    Though I have seen elsewhere a strong saber focus on Ramon Urias, a player I predict will not be protected. So maybe there will be another Cordoba-like outcry, after all. Who knows? Maybe this time, it will turn out to be justified. (Urias just came in at #30 on the community list for 2019. Cordoba was #20 when he left.)

    P.S. This season, at age 22, Cordoba was initially sidelined with a concussion. After he returned, he hit .206 in 45 games at high-A before going back on the DL in August.

    #72258
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    CariocaCardinal
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    40 man just got tighter with the Wainwright extension. What if adding Wainwright costs us a player?

    I dont see how you dont protect a talent like Fernandez no matter how bad his injury filled season was. I also dont see how they fit him on the 40 man to protect him.

    #72259
    Brian Walton
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    It does mean that one less player can be protected before Rule 5. However, like I said on the other thread, Wainwright will still use a 40-man spot either way. If they waited to sign him in December, it would still mean that someone has to lose their spot for him at that time. If not Fernandez, then it would have to be someone else.

    To me, this suggests their efforts to clean up the 40-man (likely via trade) must be accelerated.

    P.S. For example, last year, they traded Aledmys Diaz for a minor leaguer (since released) on 12/1 – a few weeks too late to help them for Rule 5 protection.

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