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For all those that keep talking about the need for a lefty bat, please read this article
Which would you choose? Are the Cardinals really harmed by not adding a left-handed bat?
If the Cardinals could sign Donaldson + (Brantley or Markakis) and get rid of Fowler, they are better than last year.
As to the arguments Brantley is injured too often, he had two shoulder surgeries two years ago, he still out slugs Markakis. Neither are great defenders. And you have to groom O’Neill in case Ozuna leaves next year.
I’d be looking at Brantley or Markakis as the left-handed bat off the bench and 4th OF, with O’Neill starting in right.
If the Cardinals were to sign Donaldson and (Brantley or Markakis), I’d want the deals to be two years or less.
There is a lot of talk about the Cardinals needing to upgrade their bullpen, but the last two years, the Cardinals bullpen has improved one they started the Memphis shuttle and jettisoned under-performing seasoned veterans. So, do you invest in a Dallas Keuchel for the rotation or strengthen your bullpen?
If the Cardinals aren’t going to be players for top-end relievers, they should strengthen the rotation and let the Memphis shuttle be the bullpen.
If you want WAR to have any statistical validity whatsoever, start replacing “Replacement” with “Average”
Junk Science – rather than using accepted statistical norms, we’ll use our own that we make up. This way, when we publish numbers that are truly outlandish, nobody will be able to question them.
Junk Science – instead of using data from observations, we’ll use a fictitious reference point nobody understands, is not defined and nobody can reference. PLUS, we’ll make it a moving target.
Junk Science – we’ll make our “statistics” so complicated that nobody can possibly understand our statistics, nor replicate them. When anybody asks what a replacement level player is, we’ll call them stupid, as will all the people who have never studied statistics but know our statistical definitions inside and out.
Junk Science – Even though regression models of more than 7 independent variables lose predictive capability due to the multicollinearity, bias and multiple sources of error from the variables, we’ll throw 30+ variables into our model. We’ll hide how truly bad our model is by never publishing it and using statements like, “Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate,” even though we never publish the +/- and the vast majority of our audience has never studied statistics and thus does not say “Player X was worth 2.5 WAR +/- 2 WAR.”
Junk Science – Because our data with all of our shenanigans still isn’t meaningful, we’ll transform the data in ways only we understand, then regress it upon itself to make it meaningful. We’ll tell you that our regression of the data upon itself produces fantastic results, but then again, it always does. If you question these data transformations, we’ll call you stupid, as will all the statistically illiterate people for whom our statistics were created.
On your first day of your first statistics class, you are taught that to do statistical analysis, the data has to be:
– Objective
– Observable
– Measurable
– Repeatable
A “replacement” level player is not Objective – it is based on somebody’s recollection of what they think a replacement player is capable ofA “replacement” level player is not Observable – he is made up
A “replacement” level player is not measurable – he is not even in the data set
A “replacement” level player is not repeatable, because you can’t repeat what you cannot observe
Now, there are ways to correct for bias in statistical models, but when your analysis something that is made up, well…you get Theranos or Enron
So, when I was in college, my forecasting professor told a joke:
The owner of a company was facing a downsizing, so he had to let two employees go. He called three employees into his office, a statistician, an accountant and an economist. He told them he had to let two of them go. He didn’t know who to let go and who to keep, so he was going to ask them a question, and whoever gave the best answer would keep his job.
He sent them all out to the hallway, and then called the statistician into his office. He asked, “what is 2 + 2?”
The statistician said, “It’s somewhere in the range of 3 to 5.”
He told the statistician it was a good answer, sent him out to the hallway, then called the accountant into the office. Again, he asked, “what is 2 + 2?”
The accountant replied, “Four.”
He told the accountant that was a good answer, then sent him out into the hallway.
He then called in the economist. “I’m going to ask you the same question I asked the other two guys, what’s 2 + 2?”
The economist looked around, closed the door, went over to the windows and drew the blinds, then whispered in his ear, “What do you want it to be?”
I have also heard the joke where the accountant delivered the punch line.
If you think about it, “what do you want it to be” is:
– Enron for accountants
– Theranos for making up your own measurements
– WAR for baseball fansIf I know what I need the numbers to be, I can make them do anything to get there. See Enron and Theranos for examples of companies that said, “What do you want it to be.”
You understand that in statistics you compare things to the mean right? Do you know why? So one of your baselines isn’t 582 runs and the other isn’t 801 runs. Talk about a moving target.
You understand that only one MLB team allowed fewer than 582 runs this year, right? I’ll take a team of “replacement” players that only gives up 582 runs any day of the week.
From a statistical point, WAR is junk science.
Let’s come up with lame excuses why the absurdity of the data is valid.
I’ll ask you again, what is your knowledge of statistics?
Generally, major league players bring back multiple prospects. You are essentially giving up 2 major league players and two players on the cusp for two prospects.
Zero chance.
2016, you’ve already demonstrated you lack a basic understanding of sabre metrics.
Here’s the deal. I have a master’s degree in economics. I’ve studied linear regression and econometrics. I tutored statistics in college.
What’s your statistical background?
OK – let’s explain it this way:
The Arizona Diamondbacks saved 157 runs according to DRS. They gave up 644 on the season. So, their replacement level team they were measured against would have given up 801 runs.
The Cardinals saved 40 runs and gave up 691 on the season, so their replacement level team would have given up 731 runs.
The Red Sox gave up 31 Defensive Runs, gave up 641 runs on the season, so their replacement level team would have only given up 610 runs.
The Philadelphia Phillies gave up 146 Defensive Runs, and gave up 728 runs, so their replacement level team would have only allowed 582 runs.
So, the Phillies played a replacement level team that allowed 582 runs and the Diamondbacks played a replacement level team that gave up 801 runs. Got it.
The Cardinals have went big several times, just not big enough in FA.
The perception is they just don’t go big enough on purpose.
moving him IMO is just not the right call.
He is fine as a bench 4/5th OF
If you take away his salary part, then he seems like a perfectly capable backup veteran OFer.
It doesn’t mean I want him starting, nor taking ONeill’s time, nor does it mean we shouldnt look for a big upgrade in the OF.
He is taking a 40man spot, but he isnt really blocking anyone if he is not a starter and is only 5th OF.
The problem with all your rationale is that the Cardinals have proven over and over again that the size of a player’s contract determines playing time. Fowler was the full-time starter last year despite abysmal play. Once Schildt took over, he was once being trotted out there every day. The only thing that can save the Cardinals from themselves is if he gets injured.
And because the Cardinals have to cater to Fowler’s whims, he is blocking somebody – O’Neill.
Why did he wait?
The only team I can see taking Fowler’s contract in exchange for prospects is Philadelphia. I think the Cardinals would have to give more than one prospect.
And Fowler would have to approve the trade.
I will add, it was the refusal of the front office to give up multiple players in a trade that caused them to put the blinders on and sign Fowler to an oversized contract in the first place. They’d really be admitting a screw up to send prospects out to dump Fowler’s contract.
Yes, you guys are correct – its like 47-48 wins for a WAR team. I still don’t know who those replacement level players are.
Can anybody tell me:
1. What does a replacement level 3B look like – what is his BA/OBP/SLG? How many errors does he commit? How hard does he throw it across the diamond and what % of players can he throw out? What is his reaction time off the bat? What is his range? Can he make the throws off-balance and bare-hand ground balls? What %?
2. For SS & 2B, I’ll add in, how quickly can they get it out of their glove and pivot to turn a DP?
3. For a 1B – how good is he at stretching that extra inch or so while staying on the bag? How good is he at stopping errant throws?
4. For outfielders, how fast are they (hopefully faster than Fowler’s 4.4 second 18 yard dash)? How efficient do they run their routes? How many home runs do they rob? How many foul balls in the stands do they grab? How many outfield assists do they get?Now, for those that think DRS and WAR are more objective than errors and unearned runs:
– How does the +/- get awarded? Is it an objective measurement, that can be repeatedly measured over time, or is a human making a judgment call, just like with errors?If you want to whitewash the Cardinals having +40 DRS while the Red Sox had -31, how do you explain the Phillies having -146 DRS while only committing 123 errors and giving up 63 unearned runs on the season? Do they have an entire team of Jose Martinez’ playing in the field? How did they win 80 games? Do you think all the home and away official game scorers conspired to suppress the true futility of the Phillies defense? Or do you think whoever was assigning defensive runs saved may be biased against the Phillies?
Basically, I liken these advanced stats to how Enron kept their financials. Allegedly, Enron followed GAAP principles and had their books audited by independent consultants, yet they were exposed as a fraud years later and their house of cards came tumbling down.
This obviously isn’t that magnitude, but you get the point. Similar to Enron’s “off the books” transactions, baseball analytics have all these calculations that nobody can understand, but everybody recites their prowess with certainty, even in the overwhelming evidence that the statistics are flawed.
We all just shrug.
The trust of the avid fans in the FO seems to be waning.
Three years of missing the playoffs with no clear vision of how to return does that
Also note: DRS tells you they are a terrible team. WAR tells you they are a great team – even greater than they are. But people just whitewash these discrepancies.
Show me where the sum of Red Sox player’s bwar is significantly different than team wins!
Ok:
So, by batting they have 27.3 WAR Batting WAR
by pitching they have 29.4 WAR Pitching
27.3 + 29.4 = 56.7
Let’s say the “average” team wins 82 games. 82 + 56.7 = 139 wins
The Red Sox are at 118 Wins right now, correct? A 20 win difference from 118 is 17%. That is statistically significant (in Engineering, you will take less than 1% as statistically significant, in business, you generally take 10%).
Thanks for the links to the DRS definitions but I have read those. That doesn’t mean I understand it.
That is what they are counting on – people mindlessly regurgitating statistics that are spoon fed to them without having an understanding about the actual meaning or how they are calculated.
I am not saying you are mindless. I respect you and can observe your thought process in your writings. But the first person that taught me about WAR was a college dropout who had had never taken above a 200 level in college.
I have forgotten more about statistics than most people have ever learned.
The metrics are inherently flawed, but they are regurgitated as the gospel.
@stlcard25 – I think we are only suggesting these players because we know the Cardinals won’t sign Harper.
I’d much rather have David Peralta than Brantley, but we are going to give up a lot of prospects to get him, including Tyler O’Neill. Not sure that is a price Dewitt wants to pay.
In a vacuum, does going after Donaldson make sense? Yes.
But you can achieve the same upgrade with much more certainty and at lower cost by getting rid of your under-performing players.
I don’t care who we sign for RF as long as it is not Fowler.
I don’t get your disdain for Gyorko. He has been valuable while here. If the market price per WAR on free agency is $8 million, he has far exceeded that value, at least in terms of the portion of his contract the Cardinals are playing.
Our priorities should be:
1. Dump Fowler & Cecil. Replace them with literally just about anybody. Preferably on short term deals that the Cardinals are not afraid to walk away from.
2. Get replacements for them either via trade or free agency
3. Trade Jose Martinez to an AL, budget conscious team in need of a DH (Tampa, KC come to mind). Hopefully, we get a LH reliever in return.Whether Wisdom or Gyorko wins 3B does not matter. What does matter is the Cardinals end this practice of allowing size of contracts to determine playing time and end this nonsense of saying they are going to focus on defense while playing Fowler & JMart and playing other people out of position.
Finally, any player can get injured, so that’s why you need players like Gyorko even if not a starter.
Martinez for Scherzer?
Are you talking Carlos Martinez?
Amen to that. I have no idea why we would pay Gyorko $8M when Wisdom can do the exact same thing (minus 2B) for $7.5M less.
Because Wisdom only has 58 plate appearances at the major league level, which is an extremely small sample size.
I mean, if you want to think about it, by DRS the Red Sox only had 8 run saving plays the entire year with 5 Gold Glove nominees on the field. Bwahahahaha
Except we know that the key to all these fancy metrics is a mythical “average” or “replacement” player.
But carry on….
Well, true. But they are much more objective than comparing to a mythical “average” or “replacement” player.
But yes, I was attempting to rationalize how teams could have more negative Defensive Runs Saved than Unearned Runs, and I was thinking about all the extra base hits given up by Jose Martinez playing first and not stretching for the ball, all the balls that drop when Fowler flashes his 4.4 second 18 yard speed and players that reach because Carpenter does not have all that extra oomph on his throws from 3B.
Still doesn’t explain how the Red Sox have -31 DRS and only 39 Unearned Runs. With 5 Gold Glove nominees
Nate, my point is:
They can acquire Donaldson for, let’s say 3/60 million. That is $12 million more than Gyorko this year (since Cardinals are only paying $8 million), $7 million next year, and $20 million in year 3. That is $39 million increase in payroll over 3 years.
OR
They can release Fowler who is a detriment to this team. He gets picked up by another club, and they pay the minimum, so the Cardinals are on the hook for $16 million per year.
Now, let’s say they can sign Michael Brantley for 3/45.
Let’s add a risk factor to Donaldson due to his injury history, and the uncertainty over the upgrade in performance. Will make it a 20% risk factor, which seems low. Well, now Donaldson is the equivalent of $46.8 million.
So, at that point, they are better off signing Brantley.
Also, if they make the playoffs each of those 3 years, let’s say the Cardinals will get an increase in revenue of $3 million, or $1 million per season. Again, I think I am being very conservative here.
Now, let’s say they can pull off a trade for David Peralta. Peralta made $3.3 million this year, let’s say he makes $7 million next year, and $12 million in year 2. Well, that would save the Cardinals $26 million versus Brantley (but they’d have to give up a ton of prospects).
I will add: another benefit of using Unearned Runs is that they are objective data points, not subjective
Yeah, so I just had the same problem BikeMike did about a post disappearing:
I have little understanding of how DRS
Here you go:
Fangraphs
Fielding Biblebut if not valid then those teams with really high or low DRS values should stick out as the sum of the individual player WAR values would differ greatly from the team total.
Don’t the Red Sox stick out like a sore thumb?
One problem with non earned runs is that a single error (which is an element of of DRS) can result in zero non earned runs or ten non earned runs.
The benefit of using unearned runs is that they are known outcome that can be measured over time.
The dubiousness of DRS, UZR and WAR, is that they use this method:
The Plus/Minus System is the key technique that we use to study defense in baseball.
Now, even using the Plus/Minus system, how are the Red Sox rated so negatively, and how are the Cardinals rated so positively? The Red Sox and 5 Gold Glove nominees, the Cardinals have 2. The Cardinals have the worst defensive player I have ever seen in my lifetime. They have Fowler. They have players playing out of position. How does their total DRS add up to more than the Red Sox? It’s impossible.
Now, you will notice, the Plus/Minus system that is “the key technique” has no basis in actual reality. They are comparing to a mythical average player, for which there is no objective data.
Unearned runs are observable, documented, and recorded over time.
Which is more dubious to you? Unearned runs or DRS using a +/- system?
Except they are paying that money anyway. They can upgrade to Donaldson at 3B and pay $15+ million per year (probably $20+), hope Donaldson returns injury-free and hope he regains his prior form. If all goes well, they will get 3-4 WAR increase of Gyorko.
OR
They can dump Fowler, sign Michael Brantley (to get their left-handed bat the P-D is claiming they want) and almost assuredly get an increase of 3-4 wins per year.
Less risk in terms of performance, likely a lower cost.
And if the cost of Brantley is too high, trade for a player that is cost-controlled.
AND
Every playoff game generates at least $400k in ticket revenue, plus concessions, and I would assume increased TV revenue. So, better to make the playoffs than miss.
