Worst Defense in 50 years

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  • #73840
    CariocaCardinal
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    2016. Wow! I am not a WAR guru but I was on the fence as to whether you new what you were talking about. Now I know that clearly you dont. Replacement does not equal average. In fact, the average major league positional starter is considered about 2 wins above replacement. I have no problem with reading a good debate about WAR, but you have to understand the basics!

    #74109
    Cardinals2016
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    OK – now that we’ve talked data standards, let’s talk statistical computations:
    – What is the formula for standard deviation? Does it use the mean in the calculation, or the “replacement level”?
    – What is the formula for variance? Does it use the mean or replacement level?
    – What is the formula for covariance? Does it use the mean or replacement level?
    – When you conduct a hypothesis test, do you compare the observation to the mean or the replacement level?
    If all these statistics use the mean, why do sites like Fangraphs and Baseball Reference use replacement level? What universe is baseball in that accepted methods of statistical analysis don’t apply?

    #74111
    Cardinals2016
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    2016, doesn’t your analysis of run differentials fail to take in to account differences in pitching staffs? Fielders can’t save runs that aren’t saveable.

    Ahhh…yes. But here’s the deal. Defensive players are graded on every play, right?

    Now, is it better to grade them relative to the fictitional replacement level player or the mean?

    Is it better to grade them relative to where the ball landed? Or how far away they were from where the ball landed, the hang time or speed with which the ball got there, and whether or not the average fielder could have thrown a particular player out?

    Notice, WAR was created before the Statcast era. With statcast you can actually measure all these things, right?

    #74112
    Cardinals2016
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    As for the Phillies, I think most baseball people readily acknowledge that less range results in fewer errors.

    Do you believe all the Phillies have less range than all the replacement level players?

    #74113
    Cardinals2016
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    This is what happens when people are spoon fed statistics that are based on junk science

    10 million to one

    Trusted Experts

    #74114
    Cardinals2016
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    Replacement does not equal average.

    Show me one statistical calculation in any statistics text book based on replacement level rather than the mean.

    Want to make a wager?

    #74116
    Cardinals2016
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    2016. Wow! I am not a WAR guru but I was on the fence as to whether you new what you were talking about. Now I know that clearly you dont. Replacement does not equal average. In fact, the average major league positional starter is considered about 2 wins above replacement. I have no problem with reading a good debate about WAR, but you have to understand the basics!

    Don’t the basics start with understanding statistics?

    I’m saying using “replacement level” instead of “mean” (which is the average in case you weren’t aware) is junk science.

    They offer obtuse explanations as to what they are doing, such that you even admit you don’t know what they are doing, yet you consider yourself a sabremetrics believer.

    When the data is shown to be wonky, you blindly accept the data because you are told it is valid.

    You willingly toss aside everything you learned in statistics, and you attack people who don’t believe in the junk science you subscribe to, because they are unwilling to accept a fictional “replacement” value that constantly moves, because, you know, they actually studied statistics and subscribe to an accepted science that has been around for centuries.

    But this is how WAR became accepted.

    So, carry on.

    #74117
    CariocaCardinal
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    2016, I have not attacked you. When I do, you will know it.

    #74183
    Cardinals2016
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    Let’s make one final attempt:

    We can all agree “replacement” DOES NOT EQUAL “average” or “mean”.

    In the study of statistics, you use the mean, or average, in your computations. NOT “replacement level” or any other fictitious benchmark.

    When the people who created WAR and DRS tell you they are using “replacement level” in their computations instead of the mean, they are telling you 2 + 2 = 5, and you are accepting it.

    I say that you should replace “Replacement” with “Average” because the use of “Replacement” is invalid. All the sabremetrics fans out there and cry you can’t do that, because they are not the same. THAT IS EXACTLY THE POINT. They are telling you to your face they are not using accepted statistical methods, and nobody cares.

    I went back to my earlier spreadsheet and inserted the total runs given up by each team, and calculated the implied runs given up by each replacement level team when you add in DRS. What does it show? If you were to pit the Replacement Level teams against the actual major league teams, five of the seven best teams would have been replacement level teams.

    GARBAGE IN = GARBAGE OUT

    Team DRS Total Runs Given up by Team Implied Runs of Replacement Team Unearned Runs Difference
    Diamondbacks 157 644 801 39 118
    Brewers 112 659 771 53 59
    Braves 59 657 716 50 9
    A’s 61 674 735 53 8
    Rays 52 646 698 44 8
    Cubs 42 645 687 47 -5
    Astros 26 534 560 31 -5
    Padres 48 767 815 54 -6
    Marlins 39 809 848 47 -8
    Dodgers 46 610 656 56 -10
    Indians 27 648 675 37 -10
    Angels 49 722 771 60 -11
    Royals 24 833 857 47 -23
    Giants 33 699 732 58 -25
    Cardinals 40 691 731 69 -29
    Yankees 26 669 695 58 -32
    Twins 20 775 795 54 -34
    Tigers 24 796 820 70 -46
    Rockies -1 745 744 46 -47
    Rangers 7 848 855 65 -58
    Reds 8 819 827 78 -70
    Mariners -23 711 688 47 -70
    Red Sox -31 647 616 39 -70
    Nationals -55 682 627 33 -88
    Pirates -37 693 656 56 -93
    Mets -76 707 631 46 -122
    White Sox -56 848 792 76 -132
    Blue Jays -99 832 733 60 -159
    Orioles -94 892 798 72 -166
    Phillies -146 728 582 63 -209

Viewing 9 posts - 51 through 59 (of 59 total)
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