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Regarding the Phillies, they might not be a big market ballclub,
They most certainly are a large market team. They reside in the sixth largest US city and 8th largest MSA and have a huge fan base.
blingboy said:
(Snark Warning) I wonder if Mrs. Yadi will be insulted if he gets a Suzuki-like offer.
She can stay quiet, as Bengie plays that role just fine…
So that is another reason why, IMO, Mo deflated when Arte did not throw a pile of cash at Yadi. But that kind of magic is once in a lifetime.
This Buster Olney article has a blurb on Yadi at the bottom:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30723285/the-mlb-teams-most-serious-work-do-offseason
Part of the snippet:
Sometimes you will hear player pronouncements in the middle of a contract negotiation that feel like a bluff, but when Yadier Molina declared the other day that he’ll retire if he doesn’t get the kind of offer he wants, well, that seems different. Even within an industry that is about competition, Molina’s competitive stubbornness and spirit are outliers.
I dunno. I am not nearly as convinced as Buster that Molina would actually retire. He cares about his HOF credentials, too. Winning another ring with mystery team would be a feather in his cap. His “competitive stubbornness and spirit” cannot be fueled while sitting in his den.
One more catcher off the market and one fewer potential landing place for Molina…
Free-agent catcher Jason Castro in agreement with Astros on one-year contract, pending physical, sources tell me and @jakemkaplan.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 21, 2021
Both my picks, Castro and Casali, are off the board. Count me as disinterested enough to now vote for Knizner.
I think it could well be down to Yadi or bust for the Cards. I’d rather see Herrera given a chance to sink or swim, as we can have great confidence that Knizner is a bat first backup.
If Mo’s offseason theme is “make sure what we have”, that should apply to Knizner also, if his highness signs elsewhere.
Castro got $7 million – over two years… Would you pay Yadi twice as much? Three times as much?
I’d easily pay Yadi twice as much. Prob not thrice as much. 2 years, $16M would be about right for me.
Thanks for the reply, stlcard25. What portion of that do you see as being market value-based and how much is his specific Cardinals-only legacy premium?
The reason I ask is that Fangraphs has three different 2021 projection models up. Castro averages about 0.8 WAR. Molina averages 1.1 WAR.
That puts Molina’s comparable value for 2021 at $4.8 MM. That would require a legacy adder of $3.2 MM just to get to $8 MM for this season alone. In other words, 60% of his salary would be value based and a whopping 40% is the overpay because he is a Cardinal legend.
And that is the most conservative case, assuming the offer is $8 MM each year. In reality, I would not offer the same amount this season as next in a two-year deal for a player approaching 40. If the offer is $10 MM and $6 MM, for example, then over half his 2021 salary would be the Molina legacy tax.
I think that McCann got $10M and Yadi has a little less value due to age. So I pegged it around $8M. Perhaps the metrics have Yadi as being a 1 WAR player and he may end up there in 2020. I’m not sure I would see his value being that to the Cards. Hence why I think the Cards would bid higher than other teams to begin with.
I also think that what the other options are has to be taken into account. Knizner couldn’t beat out Matt Wieters for a backup gig last year, and Herrera is probably a year and a half to two years away from being ready to catch full time, at best. Having Yadi there for two years makes for a good, solid bridge.
I guess it gets down to who we think is a better comp for Molina, the 30-year-old McCann (for whom the Mets committed to four years and may have overpaid due to potential upside) or the 33-year-old Castro, who as Molina is likely post-peak, with a two-year deal the most he could probably hope for.
McCanns 10mil AAV for four seasons increases on a 2yr deal, as most all contracts do. The 4/40 could be easily be 2/22mil, or more.
Zunino has a 1/3mil or 2/6mil in place with GS escalators on the option year. He comes in at 0.9 war by the projections.
Castro could have made a Herrera bridge also, but if the FO doesn’t spend the difference between a Castro type and Molina, on another player, the legacy amount simply doesn’t matter to me.
Now if they still have DH bat plans, the “difference” always matters when constructing a total roster. The question for me is, does “Go External for Offense” still apply? Or has the FO swept it under the rug this winter?
Jj, could you explain to me why Castro? His BRef stats don’t exactly wow me. Two negative WAR years and 0.4 total in three years with DRS in the negative for two years as well. Is it the bat? Or are you seeing something that I’m not? I feel like whatever projections are saying that he and Yadi are similar value players are really overstating Castro.
Castro / Casali = the salary “difference” between them and Yadi could be used elsewhere on the lineup.
Re-signing Yadi, Castro or Casali doesn’t improve the lineup. And if Sosa fills the Edmans role, it’s really the lineup “difference” between Wong and Sosa that also needs reclaimed. So for me it wasn’t comparing the catchers production, but was about compartmentalizing the funds to afford an impact bat for the lineup.
Thanks, that makes sense. It’s definitely been the dullest off-season for the Cards ever and doesn’t look like it’ll get much better. At this point, they may compete in the Central but not for anything beyond that. As far as I’m concerned, offer Yadi and Waino one year (and only one year) and let they and Carp ride off into the sunset after 2021, starting over with a clean slate.
Knizner couldn’t beat out Matt Wieters for a backup gig last year
Wieters got more AB’s last year but I’m not sure I would phrase it that way. Wieters signed a $2M deal on 1-22-20, prior to covid wrecking the season. The Cardinals stated reason for signing Wieters as Yadi’s backup was because they would rather have Knizner getting regular playing time in Memphis, not that they thought Wieters was the better player. Of course covid then happened, rosters were expanded, milb’s season was cancelled, and both Knizner and Wieters got to sit around and watch Yadi play.
Put it this way, if Knizner and Wieters were the two catchers on the roster in 2021 who do you think would get more playing time?
and both Knizner and Wieters got to sit around and watch Yadi play.
There were a ton of double-headers, so Wieters got plenty of starts (at least 8 after Yadi came back). Those starts could have gone to Knizner, very easily. To me, it’s telling that the team didn’t do that. So I would phrase it that Knizner was not considered the better player.
Put it this way, if Knizner and Wieters were the two catchers on the roster in 2021 who do you think would get more playing time?
In 2021, probably Knizner. In 2020, it would have been Wieters.
In 2021, probably Knizner. In 2020, it would have been Wieters.
Why do you think that is? Has Knizner had a better offseason than Wieters?
As for 2020 it is hard to tell what the Cardinals were thinking. Maybe they thought Wieters was better last year. Maybe they wanted to justify the $2M. Maybe they liked that he could hit LH.
Wieters was really bad in 2020, both at the plate and with the glove. I’m sure being a year older, he doesn’t strike the brass as a starting caliber catcher.
Once Wieters was signed in the spring, it was clear that Knizner would not be front and center in the plans for 2020. He ended up spending about a month of last season in the alternate camp (or technically on the taxi squad, from where he could not play, which was actually worse for his development, IMO).
Wieters is not the inhibitor to Knizner. Yadi is.
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