Yadier Molina Contract Extension??

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  • #152259
    Avatarblingboy
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    I wouldn’t have wanted to be a catcher drafted by the Cardinals in the last 10 years or so. The mother of all dead ends. It seems inevitable that we would end up where we are. Post pandemic, finding a catcher has to be high on the to-do list.

    #152269
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Expanded the discussion here into an article.

    #152284
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I guess in my thinking, Yadi is at least twice the catcher that Castro is at this point (FG and BRef seem to be split on this). McCann’s projection on FG is between 0.8-1.3 WAR as well, although he’s considered on the upswing. So a small bump for McCann and a small dock for Yadi puts him around $8M value. Perhaps that is a little premium on Yadi for legacy, which is ok if you’re ok with paying for a decent bridge to Herrera.

    I’ll also acknowledge that there’s a backfire risk…not so much that Yadi will be an albatross contract, but that Yadi becomes a malcontent if the Cards decide that they want to bring Knizner or Herrera into a time split. I don’t blame those who wish to be rid of Yadi and move on, but we all need to understand that 2022 becomes a non contending season in that case.

    #152285
    Avatargscottar
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    I don’t blame those who wish to be rid of Yadi and move on, but we all need to understand that 2022 becomes a non contending season in that case.

    How can that be when there have been actual projections showing Knizner’s WAR equal to Yadi’s?

    For 2021:

    Depth Charts: 1.0 Molina, .9 Knizner
    Steamer: 1.3 Molina, 1.0 Knizner
    Zips: 1.0 Molina, 1.0 Knizner

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #152289
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    How can that be when there have been actual projections showing Knizner’s WAR equal to Yadi’s?

    To be blunt, the projections are full of it. Knizner will probably be a solid hitter (for a catcher), but every scouting report I’ve ever seen on Knizner says his glove is below average. The early numbers we have on him show him as a -20 run defender, which jives with his scouting reports. If Yadi is a +5 or so, what kind of value with the bat will Knizner have to have to make up the difference?

    If the Cards really want to contend in 2022 they’d need to throw Herrera in the deep end and let him sink or swim in 2021 so he’s fully seasoned in 2022.

    #152291
    Avatargscottar
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    Well perhaps all of the evaluating services are wrong but I doubt it.

    #152292
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I don’t want to bccran this one to death so I’ll stop with it after this. I was high on Knizner before (I felt the Cards made the right call in trading Kelly rather than him) but while the Cards stink at evaluating some positions, catcher is a place they’ve always done well at so I trust that how they handled him in 2020 means something about him.

    If it’s Andrew starting in 2021, I will be rooting him on and won’t be harsh on him if he can’t make it because he has some limits. I think he’d be perfect to go with Herrera if Ivan can become the all around catcher we all hope for.

    #152294
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    BR 2019-2020:
    1.3war over 494 PA’s = 1.71/650 Kelly
    1.6war over 608 PA’s = 1.71/650 Molina

    That’s how hard it is to predict future field value. Doesn’t mean Carson is the better player or will have a HOF career. For 2019-2020 they had the same value by BR. Fangraphs likes Kelly better and Retrosheet likes Kelly better, for the two past seasons.

    Maybe Knizner will never be equal to Carson, and maybe Yadi won’t be equal to his past two seasons?
    Maybe the projections are close and it’s just easier to validate record book results vs expected future results. Who saw Carson being equal to Yadi for 2019 and 2020? I didn’t.

    #152300
    Avatarflood21
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    I would spend Wong’s $12 million declined option by offering Yadi a ridiculous one year contract at $7 million and Wainwright a not so ridiculous $5 million contract. No incentives based on number of games played. Tell Yadi he will be catching only 100 games and Kninzer the remaining. Have a Yadi/Waino appreciation day the last home series of the year, thank them and wish them both best wishes on their retirements.

    #152302
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    stlcard25 asserted:

    I don’t blame those who wish to be rid of Yadi and move on, but we all need to understand that 2022 becomes a non contending season in that case.

    I do not agree with your prediction. Why couldn’t 2021 be the year in which the in-house candidates are tried? And if they fail, use the increased 2022 financial resources to beef up the position from outside?

    By keeping Yadi, it just delays the inevitable need to try someone else.

    #152303
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I do not agree with your prediction. Why couldn’t 2021 be the year in which the in-house candidates are tried? And if they fail, use the increased 2022 financial resources to beef up the position from outside?

    I think the Cards will have enough holes to plug (OF, middle infield, potentially starter) with the money they have to spend after next year that adding catcher to the mix will be a big obstacle to overcome. As I see, Salvador Perez and Travis D’Arnaud are the prizes on the free agent catcher market next year (perhaps an old Buster Posey too). Maybe they could pull off a trade, but the best case is Knizner playing this year and Herrera as a rookie in 2022. It’s hard to imagine that position being above average with a rookie and Knizner back there.

    To be clear, I’m not talking about NL Central contention. The Cards are set up fine for that. I mean World Series contention, where above average at every position is going to be required for a team without superstars.

    #152304
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    You are on two separate points. One is whether the 2022 TEAM will be non-contending BECAUSE of the choice of catcher – specifically if Molina does not remain. This is what I disagree with.

    The catching position is below average now (see link to 2020 MLB team catching WAR ranking graph below) and likely will continue to be for the foreseeable future. Tying the team’s result to which below-average catcher is playing when there are so many other needs (as you pointed out) does not hold water for me.

    When all is said and done, I’d rather see the new guys tried, who at least have a chance to overachieve. It would be far better if the cost savings could be used elsewhere to help the offense – but that is probably asking too much.

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

    #152306
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    On Fangraphs rankings, I should note that an addition of 0.1 WAR could move the Cards all the way to 12th in the ranks. Banking on Yadi to be a little more valuable than projected is a better bet than some backup from Chicago.

    I think that Yadi gives you a much higher floor than going with the younger players. I know they “project” Knizner or Heinemann, or whomever to be close or better in value, but that’s because projections are terrible at accounting for defense. At another position, they have Tyler O’Neill as a below average defender this year, which isn’t happening.

    Suppose Knizner really is a -20 defender? What does that do for your defense and pitching staff? Even if he’s an average hitter, it still leaves you with a negative value catcher. So yes, the specific choice of catcher can make a large impact.

    We have been spoiled by having above average catching here in St Louis for at least 20 years, and perhaps longer. We are about to find out that you can’t “project” a catcher to be even close to that value and make it so. The results on the field will be the ultimate litmus, and we will see how things end up.

    #152309
    Avatargscottar
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    I think Knizner should be given the same opportunities given to O’Neill and Bader. Otherwise he should be traded. I understand that the OF’s aren’t being blocked by a legacy player but Knizner really shouldn’t be either IMO.

    #152332
    Avatarmudville
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    I think the intangibles that Yadi brings are being undervalued here. I think that this is a .500 team without Yadi. But I do not think the organization should spend money that it doesn’t have.(Comment: I know that ‘money that is doesn’t have’ is a controversial statement. But I’m taking the position that if a significant part of Yadi’s salary is going to be added to the organization’s projected loss for 2021, they should not spend the money.) Finally, I would love to see Yadi accept the team’s offer and play for the organization and the St. Louis fans and for the joy of playing baseball, rather than the money, money, money. He’s already got plenty of money. How refreshing and exciting that would be!

    #152333
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    I think Knizner should be given the same opportunities given to O’Neill and Bader.

    I would like to see this too rather than sign a short-term gap filler who isn’t likely to move the needle very much overall.

    #152334
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    If Yadi does not return, they will likely do both. The question will be how much time the veteran takes away from Knizner.

    #152367
    Avatargscottar
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    I think that this is a .500 team without Yadi.

    They are probably a .500 team with Yadi. The question is how much a drop off would there be going from Yadi to Knizner. The evaluating services say it would be negligible. Even if there was a drop off the Cardinals could turn around and use some of that Yadi money on an upgrade elsewhere. I am not saying they would but they could. Knizner is making the league minimum after all. That has value in and of itself.

    #152477
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    So. we are back to the same discussion as before. How much extra should the Cards give Yadi because he is Yadi?

    #152483
    Avatarblingboy
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    $6.2M plus legacy adder is sounding a lot like the $8M I floated earlier.

    #152485
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Seven catchers have signed and their AAV’s total 44.6mil for 2021, a 6.37mil avg AAV.
    The same seven catchers projected avg fWAR is 1.13, using the avg of their three projections.
    Yadi’s avg projection is 1.1 fWAR

    #152533
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Wilson Ramos signs with DET (1yr/2mil), bringing the eight FA catcher signees AAV down to 5.82mil for 2021 and 1.11 projected fWAR. Yadi projected at 1.10 fWAR.

    #152536
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Who is left for the Cards to sign if Yadi doesn’t? Gotta be close to the bottom of the catching barrel…

    #152537
    Avatargscottar
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    Wieters to pair with Knizner.

    #152539
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Certainly the catching market is thinned to nothing. Are there any teams who need a catcher now that are even a possibility for Yadi? Seems like it’s St Louis and Yadi for better or worse here.

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