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Assuming he can produce 2.5 WAR in 2026-2027 @ 9M/WAR that would be $22.5
He produced 1.3 WAR in 2025, and once the aging curve hits, you subtract 0.5 WAR per year from the estimates.
If Nado were a FA, what would you expect him to sign for?
With his offense and years of decline, probably about $3 million.
His name is worth more than his production right now.
Replacement value (playing time) is propping up Nolans war value. The bat and D cancelled out last season (BR). A ballpark 400 PA’s next season? To the league that’s 6mil, if there is a buyer with a black hole at 3B. Fangraphs had his value at 6.5mil this season so, best case above.
Ok. So let’s say he’s worth $6.5 million. That means the Cardinals have to pay down roughly $13 million this year, and at least $10 million next year (because he will continue declining).
As a FA Nado wouldn’t land a 2yr deal, imo. I’d expect mlb to view him the same. All the other existing contract baggage is on STL. Amount owed minus 6mil is my viewpoint.
If Nado was a FA I think he could get at least a 1 year $7M deal. Goldy got 1 year $12.5M last year.
Like I said the Cards will have to eat at least $20M and maybe $25M.
Mariners have $15.5 million in budget left to acquire a 2B, 3B and high-leverage reliever.
Here’s how I would try to swing a trade:
– Arenado + $15 million in cash in 2026 + $5 million in cash in 2027 (still averaging $10 million per year)
– Brendan Donovan
– JoJo RomeroIn exchange, I’d ask for:
– Ryan Sloan
– Jurrangelo Cjintje
– Korbyn DickersonCardinals free up $15 million, and now have $33 million (they also have $18 million from Mikolas) to spend on a FA pitcher and RF.
My guess is they would reject Arenado, but accept Saggese or Fermin, in which case I’d make the swap, but demand a greater prospect return and try paying down Arenado’s salary in a move to his hometown Angels.
I don’t understand why the media and some fans are so quick to propose a Donovan trade. If he were on another team they might be looking to trade for him. Guys like him are tough to find. I guess the advanced statheads are looking at a slew of numbers and not watching the games.
14Ny, for me, I look at it more along the lines:
1. He is almost 29 (in January).
2. He is a free agent after 2027.
3. He has a very high trade value.
4. He should only be traded for a great return.
5. The Cardinals have some players ready to back fill his position.
6. He may be gone before the Cardinals are competitive again so they should use his value, now, to acquire talent.I am happy to have him on the team but he is not Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani etc.
I would love to o see a trade for Gavin Williams. How much beyond Donovan would it take to trade for him?
I don’t understand why the media and some fans are so quick to propose a Donovan trade.
I was originally against the idea of trading Donovan, because a rebuilding team needs players to build with, and you can’t continually trade your top players away.
But the Cardinals don’t really seem willing to compete this year. And it has been reported the Cardinals are shopping Donovan for pitching. I would prefer the Cardinals are open to trading him for the best player or package available, and not limiting the return to pitchers.
C27, I’d thought about Gavin Williams several times as being a perfect target. With 4 years of control Donnie alone wouldn’t get it done.
Maybe something like this:
Nats get: Donnie, Pages, Pallante, Chase Davis, Hanson
Cards get: Williams and Jake Bennett LHP likely a RP which lefty relievers are always needed.That covers several of their “team needs” that I found. Not enough?
With so many of the top teams “going for it” and needing LH BP help. I’m sure JoJo Romero has been asked about a lot and after the Fedde and Helsley drop offs before the trade deadline last year, I sure hope they are listening to all of the offers.
Maybe a Noot and JoJo package could bring back a heck of return! Sign me up for quality over quantity(unlike Mo) hopefully CB can make that happen.
CFICT I don’t think that would be enough of a return for Williams. Pallante and Davis aren’t worth much now. And it would likely take Crooks or Bernal to get it done.
C27, I’d thought about Gavin Williams several times as being a perfect target. With 4 years of control Donnie alone wouldn’t get it done.
Maybe something like this:
Nats get: Donnie, Pages, Pallante, Chase Davis, HansonTake Pallante, Davis and Hanson out of the package, you have a better package than with them in. Try including one of the Cardinals Top 10 prospects.
So, Donovan plus a catcher who can’t hit, a pitcher who gets killed and a couple second tier AA guys. Somebody else would surely beat that. We won’t get something good for a basket of second rate trade goods, however big the basket. One of the guys just added to the 40 man would make it an interesting deal.
Donnie and Crooks? Depending what they are seeing with Herrera of course.
I’d want another/better prospect coming back to the Cards if they get 6 years of a top 100 in MLB catcher on some lists.
The catcher position needs to be thinned out no matter what, at least one and maybe two.
Donny / Gorman, or Donny / Saggese?
2B is the original redundancy to go along with the current catcher depth.JJ, They would likely prefer Saggese based on control yrs, projections, defense (not Winn level but passable). Perfect addition, because I’m unfortunately thinking the 2027 season won’t fully happen or just not happen. Therefore, trading any value for someone that is a FA after 2027 is a waste.
On the Cards side, Torres and Prieto can cover 2B until “100 ABs in Memphis” around the end of April/early May.
I’m assuming Walker has 0 innings waiting for him at 3B?
Doesn’t Gavin Williams pitch for Cleveland instead of Washington or are we talking about a different person?
Yes GScott, I had been looking at M. Gore when I posted that and had Nat’s in my brain, my mistake. In 2027 or 28, a RHSP is maybe best for the Birds due to Doyle, Mathews, Ixan, hopefully Hjerpe, Mautz, etc.
Sorry, I made that mistake
Donovan makes a lot of sense for Cleveland and Cerfolio knows their organization well. I could see something happening between the two teams.
I’m unfortunately thinking the 2027 season won’t fully happen or just not happen.
CardsFanInChiTown – I’ve been thinking that the absurd financials of MLB would be rectified at every negotiation for decades. But it has never happened because the owners decide that they can’t stand the pain and eventually give in. Meanwhile, the fans are forced to choose between paying exorbitant ticket prices and staying home.
I have commented on the possibility of Torres making the Opening Day roster. But I hadn’t thought about him actually winning the second base job. I don’t think anyone knows if he could play 2B and hit better there than the other candidates.
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