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Jon Morosi said this AM on Hot Stove that the Cardinals could trade with the Padres for Juan Soto. Trading O’Neill, Carlson & Liberatore.
Did he say that before or after the Gray signing because if you add Gray and Soto while subtracting O’Neill, Carlson, and Liberatore you have a pre-tax payroll of around $207M. I don’t think the Cardinals will go that high.
* By pre-tax payroll I mean it wouldn’t include all of the 40 man salaries, benefits, and other items that make up the CBT number. You can usually add at least $20M so that would get the Cardinals CBT number around $227. The CBT threshold is $237. The Cardinals have never gotten anywhere that close to going over.
If the Cardinals are going to be that aggressive with payroll I wholeheartedly approve but I will believe it when I see it.
I’d still like to see the Cardinals and White Sox make a blockbuster trade , with Hence excluded. Both teams could help themselves, especially the White Sox because, as it stands now, they have virtually no hope of fielding a winning team for the rest of the decade.
The Cardinals don’t acquire one-year star players, unless they think they can sign them long-term. Putting aside the financial commitment the Cards would have to make over 8-10 years, what odds would one realistically assign to Soto committing to a huge contract that quickly?
This is over and above the fact Soto is expected to earn a $33 million salary in 2024, per MLB TR estimate.
I have been looking for the article in print from Morosi with this scoop. He hasn’t even tweeted about it. Neither has anyone else, as far as I can find.
I surely wouldn’t attach a lot of hope to it…
I am not quibbling with many of your comments, but I strongly disagree with this one. Your ongoing bias against Walker is not how the Cardinals (or most likely other teams) view him.
Usually, fans overvalue their team’s prospects and players, but you seem to dislike them all (though some more than others).
Of course, you are entitled to your opinions, even when they are off-base.
Now, here, I am going to disagree with you. We all saw how bad Walker was in the outfield last year. In September, he had a two game stretch where he committed four errors on three plays (was only charged with three, but the one he wasn’t charged with cost two bases). We can go to Baseball Reference and see that he was equally disastrous at 3B as Juan Yepez was.
Yes, he is probably the most valuable trade chip right now. But unless his defense significantly improves, his trade value will quickly normalize to that of a DH.
That is not a bias against someone. That is taking off the rose-colored glasses and stating the obvious.
If Walker does better than zero WAR next year I will adjust my thinking. But he did zero WAR this year, so I am up on the Walker-worship crowd 1-0.
LACF said:
1) Yes, he is probably the most valuable trade chip right now.
2) But unless his defense significantly improves, his trade value will quickly normalize to that of a DH.
1) On that, we agree. The rest doesn’t matter because the original assertion was that it is doubtful that Walker could be the centerpiece of the trade suggested THIS winter. You are in fact agreeing with me, not bling.
2) Going forward after this winter, there is no reason to believe he cannot improve. He’s 21 years old with less than a year and a half as an outfielder. Considering that to be a reasonable possibility is not wearing rose colored glasses.
Here’s a case for you to consider.
According to the 2023 SABR Defensive Index, veteran Nick Castellanos of the Phillies was a poorer right fielder than Walker (last vs. second to last). Castellanos was also last the year before, third to last the year before that, second to last the year prior, etc.
So, why did the Reds keep playing him in RF and then the Phillies, a playoff contending club annually, give him five years, $100 million to play RF, not be the DH?
Because of his bat, of course.
BW, there is reason to believe he won’t improve in the OF: if he is only a DH. I don’t think it will happen while a Cardinal but if he only plays DH, he won’t improve. I still believe he winds up being a better than average defender in the OF. He just needs repetition, effort and coaching. I think McGee is a good coach and Walker seems willing to put in the work. That just leaves repetition.
Agreed, forsch. We all know the Cards:
1) Will not trade Walker despite his high value.
2) Will keep working him in right field and not make him a full time DH.All the talk to the contrary won’t change anything but it will upset the commenters when it doesn’t play out the way they want.
For what it’s worth, I think Walker will hit enough and play defense well enough to provide a lot of value to the team, especially with his rookie salary. Soto would be great, but unless the deal really is a Arenado type heist, I can’t imagine BDW ponying up money or Mo ponying up prospects.
Brian
Excellent point. I’ve always said that some on here confuse what they want to happen with reality and they think the two are the same thing.
Any chance of a Glasnow for MaTz and O’Neill trade? Perhaps include a third team? Maybe add a prospect like Baker or Gomez?
Acquiring Glasgow would be asking for problems since it’s almost guaranteed that he will be on and off of the IL for much of the season in 2024. The rotation we have right now looks pretty stable, and adding a wild card like Glasnow to it would destabilize it.
Walker can’t be traded. If they trade Walker, Goldschmidt and his $26M salary has to stay at first base in 2025, and the outfielder that they would gain by trading Walker would probably be a player in the $25-$25M range himself. They’re not trading Walker.
I mentioned this in a different thread but I would still target Cease in a trade then consider signing Hader. I normally don’t like spending big on bullpen guys but he would be the exception. We need to keep him away from the Cubs.
According to Goold:
Outfielders Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Alec Burleson have drawn interest from teams,
Cease, Santos & Nicky Lopez
for
Donovan, Matz & LiberatoreMatz to the CWS instead of the pen. Matz owed a guaranteed 2/25mil. Cease is expected to draw 2/22mil in arb salaries (est. BTV).
SS Lopez is expected to draw 4mil in 2024 (Cots) and could draw 2/9.8mil (BTV), if tendered next winter for 2025. I view Lopez as a 4mil rental. A slick fielding SS / utilty infielder to pair with Winn.
Total salaries traded for 2024 within a half-mil.
Cardinals27 said:
I would like to see us sign Woodruff. Maybe a 2 year deal while he rehabs.
I totally agree. The biggest problem if we sign him soon is the 40-man spot he will require until the season starts and he can be put on the IL. Need to hold off at least until after the winter meetings and see if any spots open up with players being traded.
Winn and Nicky Lopez both have conventional handedness splits. Natural SS platoon. Edman in CF, Noot in RF and O’Neill/ Carlson in LF. A CF friendly OF, four deep.
Value the D!
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