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Sign two of: Ryu, Lugo, Clevinger
Then start working on trades. Negotiate from a position of strength, not need.
If the CWS want to shed Cease salary, BillyMo needs the flexibility to absorb more salary. A tapped out budget limits itself in trade opportunities.
SEA traded their 3Bman, adding on to their need at 2B. Walker, Gorman and Donovan all line up well for their young controllable pitching.
If we continue with vet IP, Maeda (2/36mil est.) is a FA they could prop up as the SP1 and still have 9mil for a Matsui type pen arm.
There is enough needs that dropping the remain funds on Gray or Monty becomes debatable.
Donovan, Libby, Roby for Cease, Santos uses 8mil, leaving 20mil in the war chest.
Cease, Gibson, Mikolas, Lynn, Matz
Helsley, Romero, Gallegos, Santos, Thompson, King, ?, ?
20mil gets Mo his swingman and a closer type. Rambling….
Hot stove time is for rambling, jj.
Mo said something about innings depth and he said two starters, and that is just what he did. Anything about top shelf starters has come from somewhere besides the FO.
I think the most we can hope for is one pitcher to slot in above what we have. That would make 4, with Matz and some laundry list guys squabbling over the 5th slot. I also think he remains gun shy about trading anything that could pan out. That limits what he can get via trade.
There is no reason to think they will get another starter. Mo said he wanted two and I think he added two. Let me check…Lynn is one…Gibson is two…yes, that’s two. He could surprise me but don’t be shocked if he’s done with starters. After all, he said two, starters but he didn’t say they’d be any good.
Jim Bowden on Acquiring Dylan Cease
“At the very least, the White Sox would get two top-10 prospects and one top-15 to top-25 prospect too. It would take a strong package from a good farm system.”
Now, the Cardinals aren’t a good farm system. So, the asking price would probably be more – like Hence, Graceffo & Roby.
If the CWS want to shed Cease salary, BillyMo needs the flexibility to absorb more salary.
They are not trading to shed salary. They are trading because they finished 40 games under .500 in the weakest division in baseball and they have no illusions they should have been in first.
They are trading to maximize the prospects going back.
The Sox would obviously know that the Cardinals would consider Cease the Ace of their staff. He is young and cost contained for two years. I am pretty sure they would insist the deal start with Walker or Gorman, so it would start with Gorman. If Mo balks, the Sox will get a similar talent from somebody else. The trade market for top of rotation types will be red hot, FA or trade.
The CWS particular roster plan is a lesser concern. It’s their concern.
Limiting our clubs trade opportunities with any team, by having zero financial flexibility, is a weak trading position.
Gorman, plus
for
CeasePass.
I agree. And Mo won’t trade anyone who could pan out as a star. So we can cross Cease off the list. The Sox will get something similar elsewhere.
There is some cause for caution with Keller. There was speculation around Pirates nation about his health when he was scratched before his last scheduled start of the season.
One example: “The question is whether or not he is okay. . . . Keller was seen in his last start shaking his arm and looking in some discomfort, shutting him down is the right thing to do.”
https://rumbunter.com/posts/pittsburgh-pirates-mitch-keller-done-for-the-2023-season-01hbgkdtx205I note that his first half ERA was 3.31, second half 5.59. First half OPS+ 73, second half OPS+ 123.
There was speculation that he may have just worn down due to unaccustomed work load. (194 IP in 2023). I notice that his previous high, 159 IP in 2022 is 35 innings less. That year his 1st half ERA was 4.55 and second half 3.09. 35 innings is significant, but his performance turn in 2023 happened around the AS break, before he approached unfamiliar IP territory, so it does not seem obviously work load related to me.
For Cease I would offer the Sox O’Neill, Burleson, Graceffo, and Hence. I am not sure that would get it done but it would be a strong opening offer.
Why is everyone so high on Dylan Cease? He’s only had one – ONE – really good year and that was in 2022.
GS, hard to know whether the CWS would prefer a plug and play return (Donovan/Libby), or a prospect package plus O’Neill.
GS, hard to know whether the CWS would prefer a plug and play return (Donovan/Libby), or a prospect package plus O’Neill.
They seem to be in rebuild mode so they would probably prefer prospects but I would try my best to offload O’Neill’s salary.
A few days ago I proposed a trade of:
Gorman, Walker, Donovan, Hence, Robberse, Honeyman
for
Cease, Robert, Kopech
In a later post, I took Kopech out and added Gregory Santos.
At first glance this trade looks unrealistic because the
knee-jerk response is ‘There is no way the White Sox are trading their superstar centerfielder, Luis Robert.’ But when you look at it further, it would seem to make sense for the White Sox. The White Sox were 40 games under .500 for 2023, and there’s not much help in sight for them going forward. They could very well finish behind Kansas City in last place in 2024. All they have coming for position players is their No. 1 top prospect, shortstop, Colson Montgomery. If they would trade Robert to the Cardinals, they could get almost an entire starting lineup that would make them competitive for the foreseeable future.I would want to change the trade somewhat. It might not be fair to the Cardinals to have to include Gorman in a package with so many other talented players already in it. Gorman is still only 22 years old…turns 23 in May. He improved greatly over the 2022-2023 offseason, and we can anticipate that he will continue to improve. He might even approach Robert’s 38 HR season of 2023 fairly soon. So, I’m taking Gorman out of the proposal and adding Saggese and Davis. I’m adding Saggese, and adding Davis, because our current system is so stacked that we can afford it, and because Robert could not just fill a need, but could fill a need with a budding superstar.
There is risk for the Cardinals because Robert has really only had one standout season in his short, major league career. No one knows if he’s going to have a problem staying healthy. And with this trade the Cardinals would be trading away, virtually, their whole system for three White Sox players.
I guess the risk for the White Sox is that of fan backlash for trading Robert. But, if they don’t make this trade, it will cost them millions in lost revenue because they will be suffering losing season after losing season for the next decade, or more. And if Robert would suffer an injury in 2024, a trade like this would be off the table for 2025.
The upside for the Cardinals is that with this trade, if Cease and Robert and Santos work out as anticipated, the Cardinals, with one more high end pitching addition, clearly, would have the best team in their Division and one of the top teams in all of MLB.
So the trade is this:
Donovan, Walker, Saggese, Hence, Robberse, Honeyman, Davis
for
Cease, Robert, SantosThis is a ‘win now’ trade. It makes sense to mudville. Hopefully, Mozeliak and White Sox GM, Getz, will see the light.
This GM/POBO job is easy. I don’t understand why Mo always looks like he just stuck his finger into a wall socket at this time of the year.
I’m not excited about Cease, I’d much rather have Glasnow.
Santos is good, but Detroit has three better relievers, the Red Sox have one and the Nationals have one.
If we could work a trade for Robert that doesn’t include Donovan or Gorman, I’d be for it.
In terms of a backup SS, I think the Cardinals should sign Jose Iglesias. He played last year at $5 million, the year before at $3.5 million.
I hate to see Donovan get traded. He’s a gamer that bring a lot of energy to the field when he plays. But, I think Donovan has earned a chance to be an everyday player, and that’s not going to happen if Gorman is our second baseman. Also, if we can hang onto Edman, we can afford to lose Donovan.
I get the apprehension about Cease. He may not really be a top of rotation guy, but he should at least be a NO.2. They still really need that true No. 1. Yamamoto would be ideal if his success in Japan would translate to MLB. The obvious problem is that every organization that thinks they have a chance at signing him, is all in on doing just that.
I’ve been trying to talk myself into thinking the Sox would want O’Neill coming back, but I just can’t. There is no scenario where he makes sense for them. I also can’t see them wanting Burleson. A one dimensional player is what you want to plug a weakness for that particular thing in an otherwise solid roster. Not what you want when you are rebuilding from ground floor. A left handed bat off the bench is the last thing they are worried about. Guys we don’t want to see in our everyday lineup are not going to be material to any meaningful trade.
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