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Billy-Mo will try to disguise the rebuild by keeping Arenado and Goldy, while selling tickets, while we wait.
jj:
You’re exactly right and that’s the problem. They never go far enough no matter what the situation is and that’s why the Cardinals will always be what a poster said once…a middling team.
We all know the Cards need a couple top half of rotation level starters for next year’s rotation. Unless Mo is willing to trade the good stuff, he is going to have to buy FAs this winter. If he puts a Not for Sale sign on Arenado, Walker, Gorman, and whoever else, then he is not going to be able to trade for top shelf controllable starters, and he is going to have to pay cash to hire top shelf FAs.
He is probably not going to do either of those things, so we are not going to have a couple top end starters for the rotation. We will have a couple lesser guys that he can get for lesser trade goods or buy for less money. We might be good enough to sqweak into post season again. Come spring maybe we can hope for that. But we all know that without a couple studs heading up our rotation, we are just going to be shown the door yet again.
The top shelf starters are an indispensable element. None of the untouchables are indispensable. That is the bottom line.
That’s about it, Bling. Unless any team is willing to offer up a lot of money towards a high risk proposition such as a pitcher, they aren’t going to obtain a top tier SP’er unless he’s realized in return for a high impact position player. The Billy Jr. Cardinals have never obtained any established top of the rotation pitcher through either a trade or the aquisition of a FA. They got lucky with both Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright who were both relatively unknowns and came to the Cardinals in transactions orchestrated by Walt Jocketty. Carpenter was signed for $300K and Wainwright was still more than 2 years shy of making his Big League debut…Haha!
1TD, do not forget Darryl Kile. Jocketty picked him up after two miserable seasons in Colorado. He was a very solid starter for the Redbirds.
It would seem to me that the Cardinal Analytics people need to get to work. They will need to find one or two veterans that have fallen on tough times, but are capable of turning things around. The franchise has done that in the past (e.g. Carpenter and Mikolas).
Not to depress Cards fans any further, but imagine if Gallen and Alcantara were in the rotation this year….
Certainly, having Sandy for the long-haul would be great, but he is not having an exceptional 2023. Specifically, he would have just the fifth-best ERA in the Cardinals rotation (pre deadline). Here are the starters with lower ERAs this year.
Monty
Matz
Mikolas
FlahertyOn the other hand, though he has slipped a bit lately, Gallen is among the candidates to unseat Sandy as the Cy Young winner. And like the Cardinals, the Marlins traded him away!
My point was basically pre and long term thinking. 2024 at the least would sure look more promising.
Billy-Mo will try to disguise the rebuild by keeping Arenado and Goldy, while selling tickets, while we wait.
I’m not sure it’s fair to characterize these moves as part of a rebuild. Was it short sighted by Mo and Dewitt to try to sneak one more year of contention by running it back again after we won 94 games last year? Sure…but it’s not like they actively set out to be bad. And the guys they just traded were not going to be around for next year anyway. Not to mention, there’s always the ability to resign some of them if they want.
I look at the trades as a way to restock the system to posture for off season trades to find those core guys for 2024 and beyond. The roster is jammed with guys who provide average to above value, and the obvious need is pitching. I think you’ll see one of Noot or Carlson, one of Donovan or Edman, and possibly a guy like O’Neill shopped this offseason. You add in filler like the guys we just acquired (or similar value already within the system) and you’ve probably got three useful pitchers without a massive hit to the lineup. For example, Noot plus a prospect probably gets you a controllable #2-3 guy. Edman plus a prospect gets you a #4 guy. O’Neill and a prospect gets you a solid bullpen arm with some runway, or maybe you keep him and hope for the free agency bump. Then the $$ goes to upgrading via free agency.
I’ll ask this…is there really a huge downturn in the team if the lineup is Donovan-Goldy-Gorman-Arenado-Contreras-Walker-O’Neill-Carlson-Winn and a rotation of FA-Gilbert-Mikolas-E Cabrera-Matz? In think that team can win the Central. That’s not really a rebuild to me.
That said, if we’re having the same conversation in February, then I’ll agree that we’re in a rebuild.
Hope is not a strategy. If / when we have a mlb caliber pitching staff that can contend, I will give them credit for it.
We currently had a bottom 5 pitching staff and are restocking the minors. That’s a rebuild.
The lineup you posted couldn’t save us this season and wont until we can pitch. SHO-ME, anyone can make promises.
I don’t think hope is a strategy either. Yet even well laid plans can be foiled. Look at our co-sellers, the Mets. No one can mistake them for not trying to put a winning team out there. But sometimes it just doesn’t happen.
You can shed dead weight and add back properly and be right back in it. I believe (not hope) it’s possible. You don’t, and it’s ok to differ there. I think if Dewitt sits on $60-70M this winter then I’ll be right there with you on a rebuild vs retool. That remains to be seen.
The Phillies and Guardians are in dire need of outfield upgrades. The Mariners still need offense, especially power. That’s just three teams that the Cardinals might still be able to deal with during the offseason. The Cardinals clearly have ‘dry powder’ in the form of major league talent and prospects, and probably cash. I say ‘probably cash’ because with Waino and Yadi gone, they no longer have a ‘face of the franchise’ player. Hitting that 3 million-plus attendance mark might be hard to obtain going forward.
“Yet even well laid plans can be foiled”
The only plan last offseason was don’t buy FA pitching, it cost too much. Bill / Mo wanted our guys. That’s from Mo.
I didn’t want Wainwright, Flaherty, Hudson, Hicks or Cabrera and they offered them contracts. So I can’t agree on “well laid plans”. I didn’t want Contreras either. What a huge misappropriation of funds that was.
How many times last winter did I type “significant pitching acquisitions needed”? It was enough that BW started calling it a tired topic, or something like that. This isn’t hindsight. I’ve earned the right to call their planning dysfunctional, and they proved me right.
Now I now the bootlickers will hinge on every golden word Bill / Mo speak going forward, but I need them to SHO-ME.
Build a MLB pitching staff that can contend, and don’t tear down the lineup doing it. You can take a top5 lineup and break it down to 15th because you won’t buy FA pitching, but we don’t get better.
We have to add without significant subtracting, but that requires our payroll ranking to get back to top 10. We will see if Bill has the stomach for it. “Hope” didn’t work this season and won’t make us better next.
I know it isn’t Bill and Mo’s way to eat a lot of money, but if you could get a good prospect or #2 starter, would you pay down big $ like the Mets did with Scherzer/Verlander to trade Contreras to a team that is a better fit.
I didn’t want Wainwright, Flaherty, Hudson, Hicks or Cabrera and they offered them contracts. So I can’t agree on “well laid plans”. I didn’t want Contreras either. What a huge misappropriation of funds that was.
How many times last winter did I type “significant pitching acquisitions needed”? It was enough that BW started calling it a tired topic, or something like that. This isn’t hindsight. I’ve earned the right to call their planning dysfunctional, and they proved me right
I wanted the same. Of course it would be difficult to say that anyone could have fully predicted just how bad it could be this year.
I think the decision making is flawed as well…and would prefer new decision makers. I’m not sure I can fully trust Mo to make the right moves, or Dewitt to open up the wallet. The team has shifted from spending in the top third to the bottom half and is trending downward. It may be good for BDW’s bottom line to turn a greater profit by skimping on the spending, but it causes pain for us fans.
I guess my point is…either I try to enjoy the team as I can and look into the future, or I throw up my hands and walk away. To posture and moan seems to be the least helpful stance. Hopefully the the FO Cards will prove our fears wrong in the next year.
Or find a pitcher w/similar production and salary and avoid the pay down.
Would Robbie Ray be a fair target? He had the TJ but the stats were solid last year and he’s owed a chunk of money still, I think around $70M over 3 years.
I think the Yankees might have interest in Contreras if we paid enough money down and we know they have interest in Carlson.
Carlson + Contreras + $25M for Schmidt + Beeter.
Robbie Ray has 3/74mil remaining.
Contreras has 4/77.5mil reamaining.Its a good starting point. A good example of not eating salary and converting salary from the lineup, to pitching.
On the field value, one club or the other may need to add for equal value.
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