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I would not make the trade of Carlson, Burleson and Liberatore for Reynolds. That guy strikes me as someone who is a big fish in a small pond and will struggle after he moves on from Pittsburgh. Very similar to Jason Bay.
In fact, I like Carlson to put up similar numbers to Reynolds by himself this year.
Carlson to Reynolds is a marginal upgrade (when you consider Reynolds D) that should not cost us Burleson, Liberatore and the additional Carlson service time.
Take Burleson, Liberatore and a prospect; and go get an arm ready to help now, and I’m all in.
I am skeptical that Carlson will put up the same numbers as Reynolds but I would be happy to be proven wrong. It just seems to me that the Cardinals are trending into win now mode and this would be a win now move.
GS, the trade package is an overpay imo, but PIT will want Walker, just like they wanted Julio Rodriguez when SEA inquired on Reynolds.
“Win Now” can be acquiring pitching too.
All the baseball writers and blogs and discussion sites endlessly talk about the same handful of guys for possible trade scenarios. Mo seems to be more inclined to beat the bushes and come up with something off the radar, so I’ve been trying to do some bush beating for possible directions. I am only looking at plausible under the radar trade targets that my be low hangers or otherwise appeal to Mo. I haven’t gotten as far as what/who we might have to send, only that it should not be prohibitively expensive.
The White Sox are known to be at least keeping an eye out for a second base type and a LF/bench bat type. The STL organization is a 2B/LF Are Us store. So I took a look at Chisox pitchers. Since I am talking about real life, not make believe, I am looking at what might possibly be pried loose that might work for us and be affordable both in terms of what we’d have to send back and what the result would mean for our payroll.
The guy I like is Reynaldo Lopez, almost 29 y.o. RHRP, former starter. 3rd yr arb eligible in 2023, so not any extended control to drive up the price. Before the pandemic season he was a not too successful starter who never missed a turn for the two years he was in the role. Lately a reliever who had very good results in middle relief/set up in 2022. Not a closer so no closer premium. Not a household name so no hype premium. Durable, experienced, effective pen guy.
As a package deal, we could also express interest in Lucas Giolito, also not a household name. 28 yr old RHSP who had a rather good 2021 and a less good 2022. He did answer the bell for 30 starts each of the last two years, but in 2022 he was limited to a twice through the lineup guy, similar to Quintana last year. Like Lopez he is also 3rd year arb eligible, so no control premium.
So both guys, a RP and a SP, are steady, durable and predictable veterans, who could come cheap due to only controllable for 2023 and the other factors I mentioned. This is the sort of thing Mo might have an eye out for. He has shown a willingness to go for one year pitching help. The Contreras signing suggests some urgency to win now, as does our rotation outlook in 2024 and Goldy and NA not getting any younger.
PDJ / O’Neill
19.0 trade value, 13.7mil salariesfor
Giolito / Lopez
20.5 trade value, 14.05mil salaryEveryone is a FA-to-be except O’Neill (2 seasons control). StL could buy down PDJ some, wouldn’t be uncalled for. Just a framework.
GS, the trade package is an overpay imo, but PIT will want Walker, just like they wanted Julio Rodriguez when SEA inquired on Reynolds.
“Win Now” can be acquiring pitching too.
They could ask for Walker, but as Oakland found out, sometimes you don’t get what you ask for. The Pirates don’t have to trade Reyonolds but when a player becomes somewhat disgruntled that is a sign that things are trending in the direction of a move. See Arenado, Nolan.
Not a bad trade idea, at least for 2023. I would consider Giolito to be a household name. He was a former first round draft pick by the Nats who ironically was trade with Lopez to the Sox in the Adam Eaton deal. He has a thrown a no hitter and finished top 10 in cy young voting a couple of times. That would be a solid pickup for the Cards but we would still have pitching vacancies for 2024.
Reynolds’s fits the PIT business model and Nutting could care less who is disgruntled.
COL was 50mil underwater on Arenado, huge difference.He fits the Pirate business model until he starts getting into his more expensive arbitration years, which is where he is now. They are at an interesting place. They were a 98 win team in 2015, tore it down, and have been rebuilding for the last few years. Some of their highly touted draft picks are starting to hit the big leagues. If I were a Pirate fan I would be very disappointed if they moved Reynolds right now but it would not surprise me if they do it.
If Reynolds expected 6.7mil salary were a problem for the bucs 2023 payroll, they wouldn’t have signed FA Carlos Santana to the same salary at the end of last month.
Nutting has to be concious of his budgets floor to avoid being called up on the carpet by mlb again.
I think there is at least a 50% chance Reynolds is not on the Pirate opening day roster and 75% chance he isn’t past the deadline. One team on the prowl for a CF is the Dodgers. They could probably tempt the Pirates with a plethora of prospects.
Ken Rosenthal had an article mentioning the Dodgers looking for a CF. He mentioned both Reynolds and Carlson as potential fits. The Dodgers also need a SS. I wonder if we could attach DeJong to Carlson and send them to LA for a decent return?
“The Dodgers’ interest in Dansby Swanson is real, says Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic, who also notes the path for the shortstop to land in Los Angeles is unlikely. But perhaps more notable in Rosenthal’s report was LA’s interest in trading for a center fielder, mentioning Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates, Alek Thomas of the D-backs, Dylan Carlson of St. Louis, and the Mariners’ Jarred Kelenic as potential fits.”
I don’t know much about their farm system so I would ask for one of their young starters, either Gonsolin or May.
PDJ / Carlson
42.8 trade value, 12mil salariesfor
Gonsolin / Daniel Hudson
33.6 trade value, 9.5mil salaries
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BTV thinks the LAD need to add but Carlson at 49.9 seems high to me. The framework is close enough for me if the LAD take on PDJ in full.PDJ and Hudson are FA-to-be with option yrs.
Gonsolin and Carlson each with 4 seasons club control.It really comes down to who you’d rather have going forward, Carlson or Gonsolin.
How it affects our roster has major trickle down effects. Who is our CF and backup? Who is the backup SS?
I can’t see Mo trading Carlson unless a better CFer is coming back. The org was sold enough on him to trade Bader and will not be put off because he got hurt and struggled. CF is not where we have a surplus.
Agree … Carlson will not be moving. I believe the club believes he will bounce back after resting over the winter (based on quotes from Mo).
I would be surprised if the White Sox would be willing to part with Giolito. I agree that he had a tough year, but everything I hear and read leaves me believing the Sox have confidence in him. I feel their story line is to compete by filling a few holes. The Benintedi signing fills the outfield hole and second base is next.
I would be surprised if PDJ is moved thru any deal other than a “Fowler-type” deal. Just cannot see anyone wanting to take that contract without offloading another really bad deal.
If anyone has watched the playoffs over the last 100 years, without at least one “ace” level pitcher, usually two, you aren’t putting up a banner. The lineup is fine, the focus needs to be on a Game 1 starter and maybe a game 2 starter.
Reynolds is not gonna be a Cardinal folks, >0.0000001%.
Gorman / O’Neill / Hudson
66.4 trade value, 7.05mil salariesfor
Singer / Barlow
68.2 trade value, 7.95 salaries
——So this framework may need Willis thrown in by StL to have 68.3 for 68.2 trade value. Mo takes on about 1mil.
Gorman as the Royals third baseman. He’s simply out of position for us, but we can use his developed value to acquire what we haven’t graduated lately, a plus SP like Singer.
O’Neill will follow Bader out as his salary climbs, paving the way for Burleson and Walker outfield time, so why not now.
Hudson helps backfill a KCR rotation short on vet IP.
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