Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2022

[thejager]

looks better to me: (almost half the ABs)

https://www.lineupexperts.com/baseball/trade-analysis?trade=paul-dejong_for_nick-ahmed

We aren’t going to find someone throwing away a .300 hitting SS with 25HR power. And with his salary he may come cheaper than even my offer.

I am not saying he is the answer of all answers, but there may be some help here

[thejager]

Heard speculation for a trade of Bogaerts to Cardinals, it’s all speculation of course, but that is what this thread is for!

With Boston flailing in a stacked AL East, maybe there is a move to be made?

What would it take?

Could we get him without Gorman, Libertore, Walker, maybe Herrera?

Do we believe enough in Knizner to move Herrera while he is hot?

He’s no rental with a 6yr deal just signed through his 33 year season…but at 20million it isnt all that expensive either…especially once we jettison Molina, Wainwright, Pujols and DeJong’s contracts (yes i know DeJong’s has another year)

He probably requires a BIG get or the Sox…and he is probably worth it…just not sure how much to offer

[gscottar]

Bogaerts actually is a rental most likely. He can opt out of his contract after this season and there is reason to believe he will since he is off to a hot start. The good news is that should drive the asking price down a bit.

[gscottar]

Here you go jager.

"If the Red Sox make (Xander) Bogaerts available, it's hard to find a better fit right now in the Major Leagues than the St. Louis Cardinals." – @jonmorosi#MLBCentral pic.twitter.com/ijdlESWP0j

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) May 11, 2022

[Cards667]

I don’t watch a ton of the Red Sox, but the deal would have to be pretty sweet and I don’t know that happens. He’s an exceptional bat, but Boston is going go demand a lot for him and from what I’ve seen I don’t think he sticks at SS much longer. I’ve never been real high on his defensive abilities anyway and he’s a bigger body and a move to 3B I think is sooner rather than later. I don’t fully trust metrics that ever graded Jhonny Peralta as the best defensive SS, they can be a useful tool, but I’ll trust what I see when it comes to defense.
And I just looked up the metrics and they actually agree with me ranking him around 19th and -5 runs saved.

[Cards667]

If I’m trading with Boston I’m looking at the Craig and Kelly for Lackey and Littrell trade and thinking DeJong and ? for Eovaldi and Strahm.
I like Hudson, but his BB/9 hasn’t gotten better after leading the league in BB in 2019, short 2020 with slightly improved BB/9, TJ surgery and looked good in only 3 appearances last season. And there is obviously the concern of Hicks off TJ, basically missing 2 years, and now starting with a crazy high BB/9. Getting another SP may he higher priority than a SS.
And if I was Boston I’d have Story at SS, Bogarts at 3B, Devers at 1B and be an exceptionally better defensive team, but that doesn’t make up for many other of their issues though.

[thejager]

I forgot about the option…still…it’s worth a shot

He isn’t coming on a cheapo deal because he doesn’t grade top 10 in defense, or because he has an option.

I think he picks up that option as he will be 30 anyways…but i think the Cardinals can convince him either way seeing as they have no real internal challenge to him…and they arent spending big on Turner when he’s available …in fact Xander may fit perfectly as I think Wynn may be the future at S for the Cardinals but he is probably 3 yrs away…and that would match pretty well with Xander’s contract…especially with DH in play…

He is a very good hitter…he is a fine fielder…he seems to be available…

There has to be a headliner in the deal so…Herrera may fit best…but might not get the attention…perhaps Yepez with his success could slot in?
gotta be a solid pitcher or two…can we sell Oviedo or Thompson high enough? eh…both
another solid upside bat…Burleson

I think for this type of return you need to get a waive of the option…but as we have seen with Arenado it may not have to be “in writing” for it to seem a non-issue

so:
Yepez, Thompson, Oviedo, Burleson

that enough?

[Cards667]

I’m not trading Yepez or Burleson. I really like Burleson’s bat. And I especially don’t trade them for rental players.
I don’t have much interest in Bogarts. Defense is a 3B playing SS and the cost will be to high to trade for and an extension hampers the teams needs with other already guaranteed contracts.

[stlcard25]

I agree with you, Cards667. No interest in an expensive upgrade in Bogaerts unless he was guaranteed opting out. The only trades I’m making involving Yepez and Burleson are for starting pitching and it may need to be a #1/2 guy.

[thejager]

At some point they will need to solve SS

having said that…Montas is still sitting there in OAK wasting starts

what’s it take?

Burleson straight up? Maybe add a pitcher?

[stlcard25]

At some point they will need to solve SS

Edman to SS, Gorman to 2B until Winn is ready. Sosa and Donovan fill in as backups.

[1964cards]

The Front Office missed their chance at Correa … he was probably the best of the available free agents. The contract he signed with Minnesota was for less than people were predicting. Bogaerts is a rental … pretty sure I heard or read he wants to test the free agent market.

The real issue here is that the Cardinals continue to develop decent, but not great position players. The most consistent contributors to the offense last season were acquired via trade (e.g. Arenado, Goldschmidt and O’Neal). Still waiting for more consistency or break outs from Kizner, Edmund, Carlson, Bader and whoever plays short or second (assuming Edmund) moves to short.

Hoping Gorman and/or Walker break this pattern of player development.

[Thegreyghost]

ESPN has article on Nationals maybe entertaining Offers on Soto…assuming the Cardinals could afford/sign him and were interested (can’t see why they wouldn’t be) what kind of package do you all think the Cardinals could throw at them.

Wonder if one of O’Neill or Carlson (Carlson would be my preferred choice b/c of his low hitting exit velo) could do it along with say Gorman and a pitching prospect.

Anyway something to mull.

[stlcard25]

Soto is insanely good. Per the MLB trade simulator site, he’s at +$206.7M trade value. I read that article and thought what the author wrote, the Nats wouldn’t trade a future Hall of Famer, would they?

But I’ll bite on the potential (because I’ve always wanted Soto, way back to his early prospect days).

Here’s the surplus value on that site of several of our players:

Carlson 51.9M
Walker 50.4M
O’Neill 45.4M
Gorman 32.4M
Liberatore 23.7M
Herrera 14.9M
Winn 8M

All of them combined only add to 226.7M surplus value. I’d say that some of those guys’ values have gone up and down, but generally that’s probably around the value they’d be worth. Here’s what I would think the Cards would need to offer for Soto:

1. Jordan Walker (the only Cards prospect with even a semblance of a chance to be as good as Soto)
2. Dylan Carlson OR Tyler O’Neill for an immediate semi-replacement
3. Nolan Gorman OR Tommy Edman, whomever the Nats would prefer
4. Liberatore or whatever pitcher the Nats want most in the system
5. Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson, Nootbaar or one of the secondary tier OF prospects

That probably gets you in the ballpark of equal value. It would be painful but we’d get to keep some useful players, good prospects and have a middle of the order of Goldy-Soto-Arenado. So let’s say the lineup would look like:

2B Edman
1B Goldy
RF Soto
3B Arenado
LF O’Neill
DH Dickerson/Albert
SS Sosa/Donovan
CF Bader
C Yadi

But no Yepez, Gorman, Libby, Walker, Carlson for the future. I’m not sure that’s a better team in a couple years and certainly not when we let Soto walk after he wants $500M.

[thejager]

Tough call…but i think you are pretty close..i’d like to think we could come out of it with 2 of Gorman, Edman, Walker still here…i’d add a lower prospect and a better pitching one

Libertore, Walker, Yepez, ONeill, Burleson, Oviedo/Rondon/Thompson, Baez

I’d do that….and it would be tough (and it’s a crazy 7 for 1 deal)

and………. ONLY if i re-sign Soto long term with no opt outs….even if it is crazy expensive

but if so…then do it and don’t look back…he is almost a perfect ballplayer and target

It will set the farm back…but it won’t be entirely depleted
It will force us to utilize FA a bit more than we would need to

It would hurt….hurt bad…but watching Soto every day along with Arenado and Goldy…is worth it

[gscottar]

It would be tempting to go after Soto but in the end I would pass. Giving up most of our top end home grown talent for one player isn’t the Cardinal way and really isn’t a good long term strategy.

[jj-cf-stl]

What gscottar said

[thejager]

eh…team hasnt really been AS dominant since we had an in their prime generational all around talent…Pujols

Yadi leaves, Wainwright too…we have some good looking kids no doubt…and having Arenado and Godly in their twilight will be nice…but do we really have anything after that?

I WANT them to be here…but Soto is just as young or younger…and dominant…and seemingly available…

replacing “good” talent is hard but exactly what the Cardinals are good at…replacing or acquiring ELITE young talent isnt really what the Cardinals have done lately..

I want all the kids to be ELITE…maybe they can be…but Soto already IS elite

Cardinals dominated when they had a THIN farm…because they went out and got big time FAs (they have also shown they can keep that momentum with the right team too)

We have built a very nice farm…a farm that produces capable young talent…but have we produced any stars? truly ELITE players? I am not just talking THIS crop…

At times it feels we are just riding the Yadi and Albert HOF greatness when it comes to meaningful impact players from the system…

I accept Soto is a stretch…and it would hurt… but even so…the farm would have more than it did for several years during the early 2000’s, those teams didnt need the farm as much because they used it to produce a consistently successful MLB teams

I mean we had so many HOFers or close it was pretty ridiculous….those dominant teams that so many current fans have built their love of the Cardinals on weren’t home grown teams…Yadi and Albert are all-time great MLB players…that’s rare in and of itself…to expect we can do that again is not fair

Every prospect coming up has to be Pujols or we drag them…and expecting our farm to produce generational ELITE talent is jut not fair nor appropriate.

acquiring Goldy and Arenado was great…filled a void…but let’s not act like we acquired them in their primes….they are great players HOFers probably…but it’s like acquiring Albert for his 2nd 10 years and not his first…and expectations should be as such

Acquiring Soto at his young age is expensive on all fronts…but usually you dont even get a shot at elite talent let alone when they are younger…people are fawning over 27yr olds because they are safe long term bets…. Juan Soto is 23….a 10yr contract even puts him well within his prime at the end…a 12 year he’s still 35…

I don’t see Juan Soto anywhere in our system…I see guys who are promising…good bets for good production…. Gorman is 22…and is NOT Soto…

I’d be willing to pay and give up a lot for a guy who is already MLB top 5 or better at the age of 23

It may not seem like the Cardinals way o doing things….but maybe acquiring a 23yr old ELITE generational talent is more Cardinals than we think…

Albert was 21 his first season…Soto is 23 and been putting up MVP numbers for almost 5 years

I don’t think anyone would think buying Albert Pujols at 23 and riding his first 10 years…was not very Cardinals…in fact maybe it would be exactly what we are missing from our team…a young generational ELITE MVP talent

and i say all of this HATING his swagger and shenanigans at the plate

[gscottar]

Soto is a great player, despite his pedestrian stats so far this year, but he only has two years of control left. He is also a Boras client and will seek a contract between $400M and $500M when he hits free agency, which the Cardinals would never do.

So you are basically giving up four of your top young players for two years of Soto. If it leads to a WS title then it could be justified. Otherwise, it is not a good long term strategy.

[forsch31]

Being a Boras client, Soto WILL go to free agency unless you give him a ridiculous contract like the Cardinals have NEVER done before. So you would be giving up the future of the franchise for a lottery ticket for the next 2 years.

I would LOVE to have Soto but I wouldn’t give up the kind of packages that have been thrown around on here. Walker might actually produce as well as Soto in just a year or 2. If you trade away Walker, O’Neill/Carlson, Yepez and Burleson, who is left in the outfield to produce other than Soto. The team would basically be Goldschmidt, Arenado and Soto and pray for something from the rest of the lineup. Not to mention that we would be trading Liberatore and then need to come up with a starter next year if Wainwright retires.

If the answer about the roster is to sign some free agents, consider what the payroll will look like. Then answer whether you think the DeWitts will go that high in payroll.

[thejager]

I say give him the big contract, just give it to him on arrival with lower first couple years (until Goldy is out going into 2025)

Walker + ONeill + Yepez + Libertore + Burleson + Oviedo
for
Soto (and we re-sign him to MEGA 12yr deal immediately with first two years 23-24 being a bit lower but higher than his arb worth)

Edman-SS, Goldy-1, Soto-RF, Arenado-3, Gorman-2, Carlson-LF, Yadi-C, Bader-CF
-revolving DH (per handedness) of Pujols, Dickerson
bench: Knizner-C, Sosa-3b-2b-SS, Donovan-2b-3b-SS-LF/RF, Nootbaar-OF
-Dejong?

-prospects remaining: Herrera, Zach Thompson, Rondon, Reyes?, Woodford, Baez, Wynn, Nunez, Tink, McGreevy, Mejia, Gomez?, Torres, Capel, Julio R., Baker, etc etc

Yeah, prospects are thinned…big time…but there are still plenty of potential MLB players there and with Soto and others already in MLB we have time to replenish

Yes, you need to rely on FA for filler OFers and other players, but effectiveness is always mitigated by
those players as well as the talent of younger players because you have the horses carrying you

No one cared that we started Taguchi, or J-Rod in those big years…or how bad Kozma hit, or whatever other marginal or 1 dimensional talent surrounded the big guns of Pujols Renteria, Edmonds, Holliday, etc. etc.

After Waino, Yadi, Pujols are gone…then DeJong…that is a lot of money…then when Goldy is gone there is a lot more…yes Jack and Carlson will get extensions…probably Edman and Gorman too…Hudson…but I don’t think having 3 high paid stars is all that bad of a plan..we already kind of do it…if you give that long extension to Soto and have it a bit lower earlier (not even crazy low) it all evens out.

And, yeah you have to rely on the FA market for some players…but pitching wise Mo and co. seem to be able to find them pretty well…hitting talent…eh…not so much…but it wont matter with the big horses in there

As for contract…They were willing to go BIG for Pujols AFTER 10 years of dominance, I don’t see why they wouldnt go BIG for Soto who has dominated for 5years and is younger

Prospects are just that… Soto is a star…a crazy young and good one…big money makes sense for him…as does trading the farm for

I would guess most if not ALL clubs would happily had over their farm systems and a huge salary for Albert Pujols at 23 , I think Soto is just that…except he actually has more experience than Albert does by that age

Look…i know it isnt going to happen…but i just dont think it is as far-fetched an idea nor do i see it as inherently poor planning or poor value and asset management

[gscottar]

I say give him the big contract, just give it to him on arrival with lower first couple years

I just can’t envision Bill DeWitt authorizing $400M to $500M for one player while losing four of your top young players. Not to mention that Boras doesn’t want his players doing extensions. He wants them to go to free agency.

[thejager]

You may be right about the money….but i think it is do-able..and ONLY for a guy at an age and skill as Soto…my opinion

As for extensions and Boras

Holliday was a Boras client and did just that for Cardinals

A good deal is a good deal no matter when you get it…and it would have to be for the Cardinals to get out ahead

Still…I think it is the best chance we have at landing a generational talent for a while seeing as we don’t dive into the upper echelon of the International Market where stars live…nor do we pick high enough in the draft…

[stlcard25]

Still…I think it is the best chance we have at landing a generational talent for a while seeing as we don’t dive into the upper echelon of the International Market where stars live…nor do we pick high enough in the draft…

Sure, Soto is that guy but we currently have a 19 year old tearing up AA who very well could turn out to be a tremendous bat as well, who would have to be traded in the trade for Soto. If we trade away a 5 WAR guy, 3 2-3 WAR guys and a couple depth pieces, does that equal the 7 WAR Soto?. I don’t know…I’d love Soto but I’d rather take my chances on the prospects right now.

[jj-cf-stl]

Our position players are not the problem, and not the area to invest multi-millions on acquisition(s).

STL currently ranks: 4th in R/G (scored), just 0.03 behind the 3rd best in mlb.

As base runners (Rbaser) STL ranks 2nd in mlb.

Team D? Rfield STL ranks 3rd in mlb.

Yes the lineup will be inconsistent, always will be. Every club you ever played on was. Every club is.

We have to pitch better to break away from mediocre.

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