September 30, 2020 at 7:19 am #142610
25, your Gomber solid SP5 evaluation surprises me very much. I prefer solid SP3 ceiling. He has the pitches.
If I squint I can see it. His minors numbers were always solid, although his FIP numbers were always quite a bit higher (not that I’m in love with FIP as I think it’s overused). I tend to see a guy who has average velocity who tries to squeeze a little more out of it at times, but then can get a bit wild. I’d see him as an upper 3s/low 4s ERA guy who pitches 150-160 innings/yr long term which is what I’d think of as a #5.
It’s not a bad pitcher to have for emergencies if you’ve got 5 better ones-and I think in Jack, Carlos, Reyes, Hudson (due to stuff), Waino, Mikolas and Kim (due to innings) the Cards have some better, with Liberatore, Oviedo and Thompson guys I would peg higher than that in the upper minors. Likewise, he could be a good trade chip.September 30, 2020 at 9:14 am #142620
“If I squint I can see it.” That’s good humor 🙂
I see two versions of Gomber, the pre-surgery and post. He’s had the 93mph 4seamer pre and post, and his glove side slider still has short hard bite. But, the biggest difference I’m seeing now is his pre-surgery wiffle ball curve doesn’t bite now, post surgery, as it did. He’s actually adapting his repertoire this season, throwing less curves in favor of the changeup, and I’m impressed with the changeup.
The fastball and slider have both increased in value since his 18′ and now the changeup is becoming a dominant pitch with a high whiff rate. If he gets his bite back on the curve in 21′, farther from surgery, he’ll have four legit pitches, with the all important changeup. Even without the dominant curve currently; his fastball, change, slider was a good mix this season getting very good results.
His 29 IP is 6th most this season on our staff. He faced 72% RHB’s. Allowed one HR, and had the lowest ops allowed on the staff (.563) of our twelve qualifiers. I’d like to see him 100 IP next season and a half season of starts. And most importantly, not get traded this winter.September 30, 2020 at 9:24 am #142621
That’s a good defense of Gomber, jj. I’ll agree with it and admit that he may have more potential than I thought. I might be coloring my view more with his 2018 than is fair considering that he’s been better in 2020.
That said, if another team viewed him as you did and he was sweetener in a deal that could clear salary and net us a good bat I wouldn’t be terribly sad.September 30, 2020 at 9:43 am #142624
Gomber and Ponce are both number 4 or 5 starters at best and that is ok. You need guys like that but expectations shouldn’t get out of control.
Gomber could make an excellent trade candidate but I don’t think this winter will be a good time for the Cardinals to be trading pitching considering all of the question marks we have for next year. Yes, we have a lot of depth but each person has some kind of question mark. Stl25 did a good job of outlining that in a different post yesterday.September 30, 2020 at 10:12 am #142634
This was from the Q and A done by Ben Frederickson of the STL Post Dispatch. It seems like a reasonable response.
Q: Will the injuries to Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas make the Cardinals less likely to trade Daniel Ponce de Leon and Austin Gomber this offseason in a quest to add more offense?
A: I would be hesitant, especially, to let Gomber go. I love the idea of having potentially two lefties in this rotation between Kwang Hyun Kim and Gomber. The Cardinals have right-handed pitching falling out of trees on the farm. Ponce could be packaged, has pitched well enough to be desirable in a deal. I know Matt Liberatore and Zack Thompson are on the southpaw fast track, but they have pitched all of zero innings at the MLB level. Excitement, sure. But penciling them into the starting rotation already? Not yet. They can come to spring to compete for a spot, but let’s see it first. Shop Ponce. Keep Gomber. That would be my plan.September 30, 2020 at 10:27 am #142638
As trades candidates, Ponce has been the healthiest and has a better IP totals in 2019 and 2020 for clubs to consider. He posted 133 IP total in 2019 and third on our staff with 32.2 this season.
Gomber threw 49.2 minors IP in 19′ before surgery and 29 IP this season.
Reyes threw 40.1 IP total in 19′ (3 IP at MLB) and then 19.2 this regular season.
If it’s immediate extended usage in 21′ a trading club is looking for, PDL better fits the bill. If they are looking for stuff on a lengthier timeframe, Reyes, then Gomber, better fit the bill.
Ponce is under club control through 25′, as is Gomber and Reyes through 2023.September 30, 2020 at 2:07 pm #142676mudvilleParticipantPaid - Annual
Ponce de Leon (the ‘Traveler from Leon’)greatly improved over the last offseason. If he continues to improve like that, he will make a whole lot of money pitching. If we trade him, we ought to get something really good in return (i.e Kiriloff, Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez). Both the Twins and the Mariners need bullpen help, not just starters. Gant, Whitley, Fernandez, Helsley could each be part of a package. The only problem I see is a trade with the Mariners or the Twins makes too much sense for it to happen. Somebody will get overly greedy, or overprotective, or unrealistic for a trade to actually be done.
forsch31 – The Stanton trade is a precedent, but I agree with you that it might be a precedent that doesn’t mean much. I guess it mostly depends on how badly the Rockies want to move his outrageous contract. I also agree that the Marlins looked at Stanton’s albatross of a contract and wanted to get out from under it any way they could. Where I would differ some would be in assuming the Rockies are fine with handing over $35M to Arenado for each of the next 4 years, then another $32M plus $29M for years 5 and 6 if they can’t get the trade that they want. I think that the only reason they got into that megacontract with Arenado is so that they could trade him and get back something more than a draft pick. Now, primarily because of the pandemic, they’re stuck with the contract they signed even though it’s a burden on their payroll. It’s possible that the Rockies are highly motivated to trade Arenado, maybe just as motivated as the Mariners were to trade Stanton. I’m guessing that it would not be too difficult for the Cardinals to come up with a package of players that the Rockies would accept. A deal killer could be if the Cardinals insist on $30M back from the Rockies like the Yankees did with Stanton. It depends on how bad the Rockies’ owners want out. Also, the Cardinals might not be willing to add an additional year onto Arenado’s contract at $25M-$29M in order to get him to waive his no trade clause. If the Cardinals moved Martinez’ contract and Wong’s contract, they could probably afford to pay Arenado, especially with Carpenter and Fowler coming off the books in 2022.October 9, 2020 at 7:11 am #144060Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
Reminder to please use this thread for any trade or free agent ideas of yours that have of yet not been reported in the media.October 12, 2020 at 12:53 pm #144273Cardinals27ParticipantPaid - Annual
I think the Cards hAve enough pieces to make a trade for an outfielder. Perhaps a trade of pitching and depth for a quality OF. Also getting someone like Miller, but can actually play defense, and put Carpenter on the bench.October 13, 2020 at 4:11 pm #144386
Well after returning from a 7 day hospital stay with two shiny 6 inch stents in my right heart artery I feel the need to acquire (reacquire) one that Mo let ‘getaway.’ I been away folks so if anybody doesn’t think that Randy Arrozarena’s trade turned into a mistake then we should discuss BUT those things happen every season in baseball. Now my most aggravating events during the past week were not the stents or the position from which they had to be inserted (near the junk pile). It was all the hospital traffic doing those minor checks on this and that and standing in front of the darn TV during the game. One of Randy’s home runs came with some Nurse Fiddlesticks plunging a needle into my arm with some body healing potion. And she told me to hold still as that dinger was airborne. Tonight’s games will be on home TV thankfully.October 13, 2020 at 4:49 pm #144393Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
Glad you are doing better now, MM3.October 13, 2020 at 5:28 pm #144401
Thanks BW.October 13, 2020 at 10:08 pm #144434mudvilleParticipantPaid - Annual
I am, too…… very glad.October 14, 2020 at 9:59 am #144474
Stay strong MM…. we need you here. I for one appreciate your comments and take them with all due respect of your knowledge of what is sometimes called “the Cardinal nation”.October 14, 2020 at 10:15 am #144477
Glad you are doing better and back in the saddle MM3.October 14, 2020 at 1:14 pm #144483
Maybe today the games here at home will not be interrupted. But there is always the monkey of the drugs they pop in you at 3am and 4am. After 7 days in and being released on Monday I am having trouble walking upright without neck, spine and upper leg pain. I guess I will be on 45 day IL.October 14, 2020 at 11:07 pm #144551CardsFanInChiTownParticipantFree
MM3, that doesn’t sound like an easy procedure. Glad you’re ok and back with the feisty attitude! Maybe Mo and DeWitt should get a little feisty and find 2 or 3 bats for 2021…..October 16, 2020 at 10:21 am #144667
MM3, we thought of having Brad Thompson send you a voice message of well wishes, but we want to keep you around a while longer…
Glad you are on the mend!!October 16, 2020 at 10:51 am #144669
Okay so we traded Arozarena and now he is on the verge of becoming a big name in this year’s WS…. a potential All-Star. We did get Liberatore who, by reports from the Springfield camp, had a impressive 2020.
He is on schedule to be in St. Louis sometime in 2021, right?
But what about the other guy we got in that trade? He is a 19 y.o. catcher by the name of Edgardo Rodriguez. There isn’t a lot data on him except that he is 6’0″ and 200ish lbs. with an ETA of 2023. The Venezuelan is still growing and that he can hit and hit for power. One report foresees him moving to 1B or a corner outfielder. Did I say he can hit? We just might have something really good here. The thing is that he signed at age 17 and becomes R-5 eligible after the ’21 season. I already said he can hit and hit for power, right?
Presently on the GCL-Cards roster, he is certainly a candidate for us to keep an eye on.October 16, 2020 at 10:52 am #144670
MM3…. can we get an update today?October 16, 2020 at 11:38 am #144672
We did get Liberatore who, by reports from the Springfield camp, had a impressive 2020.
He is on schedule to be in St. Louis sometime in 2021, right?
Maybe. He has never pitched above Class A. I would think 2022 would be more likely although the Cardinals do like to rush all of their top prospects except catcher.October 16, 2020 at 3:55 pm #144690thejagerParticipantPaid - Annual
Thinking of some different types of moves i was thinking about Seattle once again.
This is an imperfect solution so don’t expect these ideas to be absolute winners.
I was thinking from SEA
Haniger + Seager
Thomas + Seijas + Mendoza
Salary dump. I am thinking SEA would be happy to offload Seager if possible, Haniger’s a guy i think they’d like to keep but his unknown status and their depth at young OFer might make them more willing to let him go. I think we could also up our offer to snag a better prospect to add on as well.
Now Seager makes a ton of money, and being traded guarantees he is here in 2022 as well, not the perfect solution, but his 240’s hitting with power is better than what Carp gives us. And between them we might have one decent player when together.
Haniger is the more interesting prize, multiple injuries later he is going into ARB 1 and 2 at 30 then 31. Then UFA. He was at 3mil in 2020. He was a legit solid 5 tool performer before his injuries and we might be able to squeeze some decent value from him before he hits FA at an age where we probably wouldnt want him anyways.
Hopefully Seager would limit Carp’s ABs to be under 550 or whatever to keep his 2022 from vesting. As he was so bad last couple years him being treated as a bench or platoon player would be hard to argue at mistreatment to keep him under the AB limit.
Seager would be a nice DH or handcuff for Gorman in 2022 as well.
These are stopgap guys (unless we could snag a better prospect too), and neither are slam dunks, but they could provide us an opportunity to acquire a couple of players who could add some punch to the offense, and neither are only on the hook for at most 2 more years.
Add in a deal for Waino and Yadi
Look at the FA starters for a handcuff for the rotation (maybe look to Asia again)
Wong, Haniger, Carlson, Goldy, Seager, DeJong, Fowler, Yadi, Edman (DH) (DH we have Edman to rotate, as well as Oneill, Bader, Carp etc.)
Edman (2), Haniger, Carlson, Goldy, DeJong, Seager (DH/3b), Gorman (DH/3b), Yadi, Bader/Oneill
Edman, Carlson, DeJong, Goldy, Gorman, Oneill, Montero, Hererra, Bader
that’s a lot to look ahead, wouldnt work out that way…but the idea of using a couple of guys for a couple years to bridge the last days of Carp and Fowler to the kids of 2022 and the future isnt terrible
At best, Haniger is 5 tool but at worst he is a shell of his former self
At best Seager is a 30-40HR guy hitting mid .250’s, at worst he is low .200 with 20ish HR
Not the best solutions but far from the worst options in comparison to our offense potential
Seager’s contract is horrifying as we try to get out from Fowler and Carp…but he has at least produced some…so i get not wanting to take on another even for another year…but as i said perhaps it woudl help keep Carp under his AB limit. Right now without any real competition he is goign to play and hit alot or at least get a chance to hit a lot….bring in another legit 3b option and that potential starts going down… worst case Seager ish ere, and Carp still vests…ugh… probably why it cant happen…
maybe we can snag Haniger without Seager…i think we can buy low on him…even if SEA woudl know we are tryign to buy low…but i think we coudl still snag a deal that benefits us as there is no doubt his value IS lowerOctober 16, 2020 at 4:37 pm #144695
Adding Seager and Haniger and resigning Waino and Yadi puts us around $185M salary for 2021, by my estimation. It also means that going into the 2021 free agent season, rather than having a $100M payroll (sans Wong, Carlos and Waino), we have a $121M payroll. The question becomes…can the team do more with that $21M in 2022 than Seager and Haniger?October 17, 2020 at 10:34 am #144780
2023 FA’s, Haniger for Gant, would be worth a call just to gauge SEA interest in dealing Haniger. Similar salaries (3.0mil Haniger vs 1.9mil Gant) and team control. The risk is much greater for STL, but the reward could be also.
Normally teams wait to see how a player re-establishes his health and effectiveness. With Hanigers major injury history that’s probably advisable.October 17, 2020 at 10:53 am #144782forsch31ParticipantFree
Jj, is the risk really greater for the Cardinals? If Haniger’s numbers are bad, could they be much worse than what the Cardinals had in the OF in 2020? Also, I think Gant can be replaced internally.
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