September 24, 2020 at 12:02 pm #141565
Trade for Arenado (get the opt out out of the contract)…Thompson + Knizner + Rondon +
trade for Merrifield … Gomber + Edman + Thomas + Montero
trade for Pujols (Carp and 10mil)
re-sign Waino and Yadi to 1yr deals (if Yadi needs a 2nd fine). 10mil per?
Trade Carlos for Benintendi (if we have to add in another piece fine).
Trade Fowler to someone off the 40 and eat half the salary, his decent year might get this done
These are all super guesses…on trade…point is…try to keep Libertore, Oviedo, Hererra, Carlson, and Gorman (but with Gorman being available if need be as my hopes for him would be as DH in a DH world or 1b/3b if need be and Goldy to DH later)
ONeill, Sosa, Wieters, Bader, Schrock
Jack, Kim, Waino, Mikolas, Hudson (if healthy) Ponce/Oviedo/Reyes
Hicks, Miller, Gallegos, Helsley, Genesis, Brebbia, Junior, Whitley
Yeah, it would be expensive…yeah it is probably too video game like…but i think it could be done
But really the point is…go and DO something…something impactful…even if these trades didnt work out… NO ONE would fault the FO of NOT trying to do something, add in the going away parties for Waino Yadi and Pujols and people may not care if they win ANY games at all. The defense is better, the speed is up, we have lead off man or two, the starting pitching is a little thinned out but still solidly good and deep enough, the relief corps iis young and high upside and cheap outside of Millers one more year. Bench isnt as fancy, but has all the parts. Farm still has premiere prospects in it to still be excited about.September 24, 2020 at 12:39 pm #141580
One thing I appreciate about you, Jager…you always swing for the fences with your proposals.
I’ll still maintain that the Royals and Rockies will ask for one of Gorman or Carlson in either deal. We would be lucky to keep one of them. Of course, with Arenado, Gorman becomes redundant. It would be a good team, but an old one that would likely be in a severe decline in 2-3 years. 2021 would be solid though. Also, payroll would have to be approaching $200-210 million to support that group.September 24, 2020 at 2:23 pm #141595gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
Well this thread is all about dreaming instead of reality but there is nothing wrong with that. It is fun to talk about.
I highly doubt that the owner who declared that MLB isn’t that profitable is going to take on Arenado’s massive contract in a pandemic and frankly I don’t want him to. I am against any acquisition that blocks Gorman.
Due to our well documented payroll logjam I don’t foresee us getting a big bat this winter but I do think we could get a moderate bat upgrade and Joc Pederson falls in that category. Platoon him in LF with O’Neill and we should expect a moderate uptick in the offense next year. Combine that with a more healthy pitching staff and not having to play two doubleheaders every week and we could be good enough in 2021 to be a playoff contender, then have LOTS of payroll room for 2022. That is assuming we have a 2022 season due to the acrimony between MLB and the MLBPA.September 24, 2020 at 5:11 pm #141608
It does look pretty expensive, but i wonder if some other cash considerations could come into play in the Pujols deal…i wonder if they’d be happy to save 5mil on Pujols instead of 9.25, or 4 instead of 8.25 on Fowler…that would save about 8.5m?
Here is the quick dirty version:
jack-500 (extensions coming?
if we pay half of carp and fowler in the deals:
like i said, maybe but the savings on the Carp and Fowler deals by half saves another 8.5
down to TOTAL: 192.6
then MAYBE you trade off Wong, with the kind of lineup thee perhaps you move him to save salary, that forces you to go out and get a cheap veteran for 2b, or hand it to Sosa or Schrock…or if you can pull of he deal without moving Edman…boom.nevertheless add back 500k…..and at -12.5m and +.5 … that brings us down to a TOTAL of: 180.1mil
180 million for:
Merrifield, Benintendi, Arenado, Goldy, DeJong, Pujols, Yadi, Carlson, Edman
looks fine to me…
Then in the offseason,
Extend Hudson and Jack and Benintendi if you want with the savings from Pujols, Waino, Miller, Wieters and maybe Yadi being gone (65mil with Yadi)
Jack-4 years 10 per?
Hudson-3 years 7 per?
Benintendi- 4 at 15?
and find replacements
Replacements can be:
Pujols – Montero, Thorres, ONeill, or obviously a FA
Yadi- Hererra or FA catcher (though i think he will probably not retire and we will go another year)
Miller -Genesis…and Junior Reyes or whomever is up next in the pen
Wieters-could maybe come back even…but we can find a backup catcher
Waino- Oviedo, Libertore, POnce, Reyes…or even a FA veteran if need be
let’s say Yadi at 10, a FA hitter for DH at 6
that’s another 16mil +.5 +.5 +.5 =17.5
That’d be grand total of: +49.5 of the 65mil going out… or -15.5mil subtracted from 180
= 164.5mil for the new team
and even if was super light on the Jack and Hud extensions we could much higher and still stay close
I am sure i missed some things…probably a hike for DeJong…i dont know how long we signed Kim for…
the specifics arent really the point…
not only could we have a changed team next year…filled with all the nostalgia we could ever dream of, we could also move into 2022 primed for a new look team of: (which would possibly be cheaper)
Jack Hud Kim Mik Libertore
Hicks, Gallegos, Reyes, Helsley, Genesis, Webb, Whitley, Junior/Woodford et al
Merrifield, Benintendi, Arenado, Goldy, DeJong, FA hitter, Carlson, Yadi, Edman
Herrera, Bader, ONeill, 2 of Schrock/Sosa/Montero
that team still looks good to me, i love the high contact and speed of the team with the middle order thump of Arenado Goldy DeJong in the middle provides ample concern to other teams
Also the defense might be the best ever
Losing Gorman would be tough as i’d love to slot him in at DH or 1b for 2022, but if it brings me Arenado I am fine with it….Gorman hasnt looked like a world beater to me he looks to be good for what we normally produce…but he dosnt look like a triple crown threat like Arenado, nor the Platinum level defense
Farm would be thinned…BUT we have the folks from this years draft moving…and 21 too…also whatever we could get in the Wong and Fowler deals
Anyways…babbling…as alwaysSeptember 24, 2020 at 6:34 pm #141624
Jager, Flaherty will be in arbitration this year, so he will probably be making around $5 million next year. As much as I’d love him to sign a team friendly extension, I cannot see that happening at all based on the comments he has made before.September 25, 2020 at 11:02 am #141808
5million is still workable to keep the basic idea in place
also…I do think Jack will extend as long as we are respectful to him, he knows the game the owners try to play to keep the young players salaries down
To me if I were him I wouldnt want to extend right now, because he didnt have last year’s Jack type of a performance THIS year…and the owners will all cry how poor they all are after this year…
Let him go to arb this year, and get what he deserves per arb rules, go out and dominate next year, then work on a true extension after that which is not just an incremental uptick in pay but one that is in line with other premiere pitchers…not just good pitchers at his age….
I think if the FO come with an offer that shows their respect to his worries and concerns he will listen…but Jack is definitely about change…and if the Cards won’t change…they better be looking for a way to offload him at peak valueSeptember 25, 2020 at 2:40 pm #141848
Until the terms of the new CBA are known, I don’t see 5% odds of a Flaherty extension happening. Under six-year player salaries is a particular focus area for Jack.September 26, 2020 at 12:57 pm #142024CariocaCardinalParticipantPaid - Monthly
My guess is Jack’s $5 million arb estimate for next year has taken a serious hit.September 28, 2020 at 4:07 pm #142405mspaidParticipantFree
Where would Pujols play?September 28, 2020 at 4:56 pm #142408
If the Cardinals make a reasonable offer to Flaherty, he would be nuts not to take it. He would become a multimillionaire overnight and he would be set up with more than enough money to last him for the rest of his life. He would be foolish, if not arrogant, for not taking the money.September 28, 2020 at 8:48 pm #142429
mud, different people have different value systems. That doesn’t make them bad – maybe not doing what we might do.September 28, 2020 at 10:48 pm #142441
I’m not saying he’s bad. What I’m trying to say is that he could give up his arbitration years in exchange for somewhere between $10M and $30M, and be financially set for life literally overnight. If he holds out for the maximum that is possible, he could get injured somehow thereby scuttling his chance for financial security.September 28, 2020 at 11:21 pm #142444
It may just be me, but I consider terms like “foolish” and “arrogant” to carry a bad connotation.
Some people have a higher risk tolerance than others. He certainly understands the variables. He will get advice from those he trusts and will make what he believes is the best decision for him. My money would be heavily on no early deal.September 29, 2020 at 6:52 am #142447
I would think the only way the Cards could sign Flaherty early would be to pony up free agent type money for his arb years and go from there. Remember, this guy hasn’t signed his last two rookie deals either, so I doubt he’ll be interested in giving a discount. Garrett Cole’s deal would seem to be the starting point, and yes, that would include $30M a year for the arb years too. As the team would likely be paying somewhere in the range of $30M total in arb for those three years, I can’t see them being anxious to pay free agent price when they don’t have to.
You can see where this one is going. Unless the new CBA changes things, the Cards will make him an offer after 2023 and then watch as he signs with the Angels or Yankees or Red Sox. But they’ll get that tasty sandwich pick.September 29, 2020 at 9:49 am #142490
Then, they should trade him. If he has that kind of attitude, trade him. He’s kind of a problem child anyway with the way he throws around his political views. The fans want to watch baseball, not some protestor who thinks you owe him your time and attention.September 29, 2020 at 9:58 am #142492gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
His political views should have nothing to do with him getting an extension or not. What is going to probably prevent him from getting an extension is the fact that he doesn’t like the MLB compensation system and seems determined to go to free agency. I don’t have a problem with going year to year then offering him the QO and taking the draft pick. (or whatever the system is after the next CBA).September 29, 2020 at 11:14 am #142517
I am little more of the mindset that if you REALLY believe he will leave in free agency, trade him when his value is greatest. That point would have been this offseason if he had a little better 2020. He only has 3 more years before he can be a free agent. That is a perfect time to get maximum return for him. I could see the Cardinals getting healthy on offense if they traded Flaherty. They have the pitching depth to withstand his leaving although losing Hudson hurts.September 29, 2020 at 11:41 am #142522
Forsch, what if the greatest value you get is from him pitching you into and through October the next three years?
I don’t agree with you that the Cards have the pitching depth to cover for losing a guy of his caliber. Next year you have:
Waino: Going to be 40, with an injury history every few years. I love him but he can’t beat father time forever.
Hudson: Out with TJ
Mikolas: Coming back from missing the year with elbow surgery
Kim: Remember Seung Hwan Oh? Year two can definitely be a shock to your system.
Carlos: His stuff looked better this year but he was all over and got smoked. Could be a #2, could be not MLB quality.
Reyes: Huge arm but injury prone and who knows whether he can make the move to the rotation?
Gomber: A solid #5 type but there’s not a lot more there. You’d probably rather have him as a luxury than a necessity.
Ponce: The control just can’t be trusted, IMO. He’s a good bet to go to the bullpen.
Woodford: His ceiling is #5. Gives up a lot of homers. Like Gomber, a nice guy to have in case of emergency but probably more a long reliever.
Oviedo: Badly needed Memphis to hone his command. He’ll be good in the future but not 2021 unless something happens fast.
Liberatore, Thompson, Rondon: Probably slated for Springfield or Memphis.
*If* Oviedo is tearing up Memphis, Reyes or Carlos looks like a legit FOR pitcher again, and Libby, Thompson or Rondon look ready then maybe you could think about trading Jack after 2021. I just don’t see enough certainty to give up on a top 10 pitcher out of fear of losing him to free agency.September 29, 2020 at 11:48 am #142524
Trading Flaherty would be a radical departure from how the Cardinals have done business.September 29, 2020 at 12:29 pm #142535mspaidParticipantFree
Where would Pujols play in 2021?September 29, 2020 at 1:00 pm #142542
A trade of Flaherty would be totally off script for the Cardinals. However, for a Soto, Tatis or some other huge talent, I would be willing to take a chance with the cast of remaining pitchers for 2021. Not a 1 year rental but at a minimum of 2 years control.September 29, 2020 at 4:17 pm #142558
Flaherty has only been good for 4 months. But we should offer him Gerritt Cole money so he doesn’t walk out on us? If we trade him, we should ask for a Soto or Tatis comp? Are you serious? I don’t mind his politics, but I would insist on him not sticking it in my face if I’m there to see him pitch. BTW, he’s only 24 years old, soon to be 25. Kids don’t grow up until they’re 30 nowadays, so what we’re dealing with is a child in a man’s body. We should treat him like a child in a man’s body.
Gomber has done nothing but impress every time out this year. He’s only going to get better.
Here’s something else for the babies that think Arenado should cost half our outfield and our top 5 prospects…..
When Stanton was traded to the Yankees, the Yankees gave up Starlin Castro, Jorge Guzman, and Jose Devers. The Marlins gave up Stanton and $30M. Starlin Castro’s OPS – 2017 .729 2018 .736 2019 .756. Jorge Guzman’s WHIP – 2017 1.035 (at Low A) 2018 1.54 2019 1.204 Jose Devers – #13 prospect for the Marlins.
So a comparable package if we were going to trade for Arenado would be something like Fowler, Sosa, and Rondon to the Rockies for Arenado and $30M. Forget about trading any of our top prospects. The precedent has been set by the Yankees/Marlins. If we traded CMart and Wong, then added in that $30M from the Rox,
we could have Arenado on third base and and still have a lower payroll.September 29, 2020 at 5:04 pm #142564jj-cf-stlParticipantPaid - Annual
25, your Gomber solid SP5 evaluation surprises me very much. I prefer solid SP3 ceiling. He has the pitches.September 29, 2020 at 5:47 pm #142569
mud, I think the Yankees/Marlins trade is not setting a precedent. I think that was the Marlins panicking and having their hand forced by Stanton. I don’t think the Rockies are in the same position as the Marlins were. They will only trade Arenado if they get the package they want.
As far as Flaherty goes, I am serious when I say he should only be traded if we get someone like a Soto, Bellinger or Tatis. Someone who will make a difference for many years for the Cardinals. I think it would take more than just Flaherty to acquire them, however.September 29, 2020 at 6:39 pm #142581jj-cf-stlParticipantPaid - Annual
The Phillies were tied for 8th with 25 save opportunities. They blew 14 saves, their bullpen ERA was 30th. If you like anyone in the Phillies org, they surely are looking for arms.
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