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OK, thanks. Just someone thinking through their keyboard.
The thought of not picking up the option because Wong makes more than Edman is really bad logic. The analysis should be focused on whether the option is more or less than Wong’s value on the open market. The answer to that is very clear. It would be totally stupid to decline his option at $12.5 MM and then make him a qualifying offer at $18 MM. So they couldn’t even get a draft pick for letting him walk. It would be wasting much of his value.
My guess would be if they felt like Edman had made Wong expendable, which is too early to tell if it will ever happen, they would exercise the option and then trade Wong. That is the way to maximize the return. At least in that case, whoever he is playing for could make a QO and at least get a draft pick in compensation.
What I am describing is exactly what the Cardinals did with Jaime Garcia. They had an option for $12 million for him for the 2017 season. They picked it up at the end of 2016 even though he no longer had a clear fit in the rotation. The guaranteed contract enhanced his trade value when they sent him to the Braves a month later. John Gant was the major return in that deal, with Chris Ellis still in the minors.
Other than Flaherty, Wong was arguably the best player on the team in 2019. To think that the Cardinals might not pick up his option for 2021 is really bizarre. Not only do I expect them to pick up his option for 2021 I think it is highly likely they offer him the QO for 2022 and wouldn’t be surprised to see a new long term deal. Wong would really have to tank for those things not to happen.
I hope that long-term deal is no more than 3-4 years. Wong will be 30 in October so he will become a free agent at basically 31 years old. That would not be the time to get into a long term deal for a lot of money for a second baseman. He can be real good but he has not been an offensive game changer very often. If Edman continues to play close to what he did in 2019, he is a better option after 2021 when you consider cost and risk. Wong is probably better suited to trade, like Jamie Garcia, after 2020.
Wong and Edman were our two best LH bats last season and could be going forward. Choosing just one seems like shooting your own foot.
Fowler, Carp, Weiters and Miller, who can all hit lefty, are all past their prime years with limited team control, and we know how the FO likes to shop / draft / trade for LH bats. Seems we always have that need. I vote we keep both Wong / Edman and let the vet LH bats hit free agency when that time comes.
The only problem with keeping Wong is that in 2-3 years after signing him, he becomes the next Carpenter, Fowler or Wieters.
Three years would be best for signing Wong. He would have to play hard for those three years so he could get another contract.
I am a fan of Wong’s but I still think the Cardinals should consider trading him after 2020. He had his best offensive season in 2019. According to Baseball Reference, his oWAR was 3.4. His best season prior to 2019 was 1.9 oWAR in 2017. Compare that to Dexter Fowler’s oWAR for his 3 years prior to signing with the Cardinals: 3.9, 3.7 and 4.0. The Cardinals signed him to play when he was 31. The Cardinals would be signing Wong to his next contract at age 31.
Fowler was a bad contract. No argument. Wong will be of comparable age for his next deal as Fowler was. No argument.
However, Fowler has missed time every year with injuries, especially his feet. Wong has been fairly injury-free. Fowler has zero Gold Gloves. Wong has the first of what could be multiples. Plenty of players have had very good seasons well into their 30’s. Not all are like Fowler.
At 2B, Ian Kinsler won Gold Gloves at age 34 (2016) and 36 (2018), for example.
I would wait to see how Wong performs in 2020 (stats and health) before deciding anything. If he puts together another good season, it may suggest that he bloomed later (with some very good possible explanations as to why) vs. just having one good year. If he struggles, then I might consider his long-term status differently.
Forsch31 does make a good point about Fowler and Carpenters offensive falling off badly. There is that risk with all contracts.
Fortunately Wong has his elite D value that neither Carp or Fowler possess. When Carp and Fowler don’t hit they are simply a burden.
How much did Covid cost Mookie Betts?
Before his trade, I’m sure Boston was trying to work something out, but he wanted to test the market, get his fair value, etc, etc, etc
I would not doubt that they offered him something along the lines of 10/300M, but I know it was mentioned in rumors that he was looking for $400M, regardless if that’s 100% accurate, I would not disbelieve it.
With 2020 tanking and owners not making anything close to what they are accustomed to or even losing money, the 2021 fan situation still an unknown and potential strike after 2021, I don’t see teams touching anything close to what they would have before.
As recent FA examples, he’s better than Harper in my opinion, and he got 13/$330. He’s better than Machado, and he got 10/300. Without the Covid outbreak and severe disruption to the industry, 10/350 would have likely been a starting point.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up signing for under $200M. Considering everything going on, something in the area of 6/180M would actually be a win for him in my opinion. Even being forced to sign a very short term deal until the dust settles from all of the chaos is not out of the question.
Final guesstimate on guaranteed money: 10/380M before, 6/180 now. OUCH!! It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Interesting topic. I think the severity of the free agent market collapse will depend on whether the season is played. I don’t think he will get even 6/180 this winter if there is no baseball in 2020. I would not be surprised to see the owners trying to avoid giving deals longer than one year this winter. Also, the market could be further diluted by dozens on non-tenders, offering cheaper alternatives to superstars at rock-bottom prices.
But even if they find a compromise and play in 2020, free agency is going to be a problem. With the next CBA on the horizon, the near-term future looks fairly grim to me.
If the Cardinals should decide to offer Flaherty a contract to buy out his free agency years, I think he should take it. Free agency might change dramatically with the next CBA, especially if the two sides eventually wind up declaring an impasse. One thing that is documented is that attendance is falling and interest in MLB is waning. Some big changes are in order. IMO, the most important thing necessary to reverse the downward trend is to improve the competitiveness of the way games are played. Solving the problem of ‘the games are too long’ by shortening the games is not going to save MLB. For the past hundred years fans have been wanting more and more baseball, not less and less. The powers that be need to address that and figure out ways to make every game seem like a playoff game, and every playoff game to seem like a worldwide event. Just my opinion.
mud said:
If the Cardinals should decide to offer Flaherty a contract to buy out his free agency years, I think he should take it.
I wouldn’t if I was him. This is not the time to “sell low”.
So much for all that Giants talk during the break. The Braves get immediate relief for the indefinite loss of Freeman.
Yasiel Puig is signing with the Braves, per source.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) July 14, 2020
That signing makes a lot of sense for the Braves. With Markakis definitely not playing and Freeman testing positive, that’s a good move.
Yates might be a trade target if the Padres fall out of contention. He’d be a free agent after this season. Maybe trade Oviedo for him, if he doesn’t make the 30. A key would be if Yates would sign an extension.
Puig tested positive so is not joining the Braves.
— Yasiel Puig (@YasielPuig) July 17, 2020
For those who were talking about not wasting money on veteran relievers on long term contracts…
Reliever Jake McGee also has been placed on waivers by the Rockies, sources tell ESPN.
Same as Shaw: Vesting option for $9 million that includes a $2 million buyout.
Only Wade Davis remains from the disasterpiece of a 2018 offseason for Colorado in which it spent $100M+ on RP
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 17, 2020
Mookie Betts is staying with the Dodgers long term.
Including 2020, the new deal is expected to keep Mookie Betts in a Dodger uniform for 13 years at more than $380 million.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 22, 2020
My guess is any market correction for free agents due to down revenues will affect the middle and lower tier far more than the few proven superstars who might be available.
If Dodgers indeed struck deal with Betts in spring, they could not have backed out without torching relationship. Fair to ask why news didn’t leak sooner – transaction freeze ended on June 26, nearly a month ago. Then again, perhaps parties wanted to make sure season would begin. https://t.co/Anhkvm3LVn
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 22, 2020
I’m shocked Mookie still got that contract after everything that’s happened and the pending issues after the 2021 season….. shocked isn’t a strong enough word actually.
I’m shocked Mookie still got that contract after everything that’s happened and the pending issues after the 2021 season….. shocked isn’t a strong enough word actually.
If the agreement was reached during Spring Training 1.0 then perhaps the Dodgers didn’t want to pull the offer and ruin the relationship, although I imagine many owners would.
If the agreement was reached during Spring Training 2.0 then the contract amount is a bit surprising but I guess the Dodgers feel that revenues will only be down for a year or two and it will be worth it in the long run.
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