March 9, 2020 at 12:07 pm #12434814NyquisTParticipantPaid - Annual
I saw this in FanSided today.
Cards did right in passing on superstars
No wonder The Ringer in 2018 called him “a once-in-a-lifetime disappointment” and mlbtraderumors.com last month wrote that “Heyward has failed to live up to his contract on the field, and … he’s a large part of the payroll crunch that has kept the Cubs from improving the team the past two winters.”
Heyward’s decision to jilt St. Louis for Chicago has proved to be a blessing for the Redbirds.
Imagine if the FO had kept Heyward for RF AND signed Fowler for CF.March 9, 2020 at 4:23 pm #124368thejagerParticipantPaid - Annual
I think i’d rather be saddled with Heyward than Fowler. HEyward at least has his moments on offense still, and plays great in the field still. He also is still younger.
no way we have FOwler if Heyward signsMarch 10, 2020 at 12:16 pm #1244301964cardsParticipantPaid - Annual
I seem to recall the Redbirds pursued and offered large long-term contracts to both Heyward and Price before the 2016 season. Payroll would have really been constrained had the team landed both. Price is signed thru the 2022 season and Heyward thru 2023 season.
Think about the constraints the Cardinals would have had if they had won the bidding! It puts the signing of Fowler and extending Carpenter in perspective – lesser money and shorter duration. However, all four contracts point out the risks of signing older players to long-term contracts.March 10, 2020 at 5:01 pm #124448thejagerParticipantPaid - Annual
I don’t think we would have been in play for multiple guys, it is just that we kept swinging and missing on getting any of the big ones.
Price has been hurt but also effective and you never know what might have been different in the NL
Heyward hasnt been terrible just not what they paid for. He hasnt ever really bottomed out like Dex has done. I think the pain with Dexter is that what he has offered has been so lacking that his price tag is too hard to take. Overpaying for a guy underperforming a bit is one thing, bottoming out is another. Dex was also supposed to solve CF which he didnt do. Heyward still can hit and can still play stellar defense in RF. Even if he never turned into what everyone thought he’d become he still is apretty valuable asset. Fowler is hard to justify in RF, let alone CF, his speed is gone and doesnt steal bases anymore, AND his on base % is gone, plus he is super streaky. He was brought in to do a lot and he has done almost none of it. Had he came in a and bottomed out on hitting like he did, but he was steallar in CF and stole bases and while he hit for no power he could still take a walk and get on base as a leadoff man, he woudlnt be lambasted because he woudl have done at least SOME of what he was paid to do. He doesnt really switch hit for much value any more.
He is basically a mediocre defender and runner, that runs into HRs. That is not what we signed him for.
It’s a lot of why people are so upset about Cecil, he is paid a lot of money (though not a terrible amount) it’s just that he is brought NOTHING of what he was supposed to have been brought in to do. IT feels like total sunk cost.
Last year’s 19HRs and 60+ RBI’s is not what Fowler was supposed to provide. Sure some power is nice and all, but a switch hitting, CFer with speed on the bases, field and for SBs, and elite on base potential at the top of the lineup was his role. A second table setter with Carp to get guys on nad cause problems.March 10, 2020 at 10:01 pm #124458
IMO, the Cardinals absolutely need to trade some pitching. Gant and Ponce de Leon are ready now. They could step right into somebody’s rotation and stay there. Gomber, Reyes, and Helsley are not far behind, and I’m still not sure if Cabrera is a starter or a reliever, but I’m leaning toward starter. His delivery looks okay to me. Obviously, with teams like the Angels and the Yankees and Twins in serious need of pitching, there ought to be high return for any of the MLB ready, or close to MLB ready, arms that the Cardinals have. I don’t quite get why something hasn’t happened already. Mozeliak must be getting offers that he doesn’t like.March 10, 2020 at 10:45 pm #124460Cardinals27ParticipantPaid - Annual
Mud. I agree with you. Gant has no options, can start and relieve, and we may have better options. Perhaps clear a spot for Whitley. Gomber and PDL have 1 option left. If used, we’d have to make a decision on them by the end of next spring. Waino has not been good so far, but hopefully he pitches better.March 11, 2020 at 3:25 pm #124526
Mud and C27, I couldn’t agree with you guys more. If a pitching needy team see value in Gant as a SP and I’m sure all teams do in Ponce, they need to cash in while they can. Gant simply won’t start for the Cardinals and I’m sure he would welcome that opportunity.
I’ll stick with my previous idea with the Angels of Knizner, Gant and Woodford for Brandon Marsh and Jose Bonilla.
Could Ponce on his own bring back a top 100 prospect? I think it would be right around there, MLB proven and 6 years of control at a low price…..
JF, CMart, Kim, Hudson, Waino, Gomber, Cabrera with Mikolas coming back is still a lot of SP depth. It would also open up a BP spot for Whitley to make the team.March 11, 2020 at 3:56 pm #124528
I think Knizner, Gant, and Woodford for Marsh and Bonilla is an overpay. Gant has been pitching like a mid-rotation starter, and I don’t like gambling too much on Bonilla who is very young and who has shown very little power. I’ll admit that I might have a bias for our own prospects, but it still looks to me like Gant for Marsh even up is reasonable. Gant has shown more major league capability than Marsh has so far.March 11, 2020 at 4:07 pm #124530
I’d be on board with that, but Gant only has three years of control left, I see that being the hold up on their end.
Gant and Woodford for Marsh?March 11, 2020 at 4:46 pm #124535gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
Just when you think you have too much pitching something bad happens. I like having pitching depth. It might mean the difference between winning the division and not. We know the Cubs don’t have pitching depth so let’s not throw away that advantage we have over them.March 14, 2020 at 12:58 pm #124750
“Gant and Woodford for Marsh?”
CFICT, I see baseball prospectus has Liberatore as #50 and Marsh as #51.March 14, 2020 at 3:03 pm #124753
JJ, I had originally said Knizner and Gant for Marsh and Jose Bonilla (lottery ticket with big upside), which I think they would take, but was told that was to much.
They desperately need pitching and Gant would easily step into their rotation, secondly Knizner would immediately upgrade their catching corps.
Marsh’s (LHed) timeline is ideal for when Fowlers deal runs out, can be cut or fully benched. A 2022 OF of Carlson, Bader/Thomas/Oneill and Marsh would be exciting to dream on in these quarantined times.
Knizner is obviously a valuable piece, but there is no place for him in 2020, and Herrera should be ready to split time with Yadi by 2022. My thinking is to get as much out of Knizner as humanly possible and him teetering away in Memphis isn’t it.March 14, 2020 at 3:56 pm #124754
That’s how I’ve always felt about Bryan Anderson also. He never had an extended look and his prospect value diminished. He was once a 70’s and 80’s top 100 prospect that was eventually outrighted and elected to become a FA.
Hindsight says he was a fringe player, but there was a time his trade value seemed higher to me. Maybe I overestimated his value, because it just never happened, but I surely thought he was more than the organizational depth he turned out to be.March 14, 2020 at 6:23 pm #124758
JJ, Anderson is exactly who I was thinking about when thinking through my feelings that they need to get the max value while they still can.
On top of that, after watching Godoy in ST and taking a closer look at his numbers, as a fan I wouldn’t worry about him having to be called up as a backup to Weiters. Not to mention the 44% caught stealing rate in the minors!March 14, 2020 at 11:07 pm #124764
I thought I would post a refresher on the Giancarlo Stanton trade……..
The Yankees got Giancarlo Stanton, plus $30M in cash from the Marlins.
The Marlins got Starlin Castro, still owed $23M at the time, from the Yankees plus two low level prospects, Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers. In 2017, the year prior to the trade, Castro batted .300 with 16 HR and an OPS of .792. (In 2019 his OPS was.736.) In 2017 Jorge Guzman had an ERA of 2.30 and a WHIP of 1.035 at Low A. (In 2019 his ERA was 3.50 and his WHIP was 1.204.) In 2017 while playing in two rookie leagues, Devers batted .272 with an OPS of .644. (He has been better since.)
So in order to trade Stanton, the Marlins paid out $33M in cash to the Yankees, and also took on $23M of Castro’s contract for a total of $56M.
DeWitt said at the start of the offseason that the Cardinals would not take on any additional payroll. But at another time he said that they might take on some additional payroll for the right player.
There’s been a rumor hanging around that if the Rockies would take Carpenter’s or Fowler’s contract, the Cardinals could acquire Nolan Arenado. You have to wonder if that’s all there is to it. If the Rockies want to trade Arenado, then when taking into account the Stanton trade, you wouldn’t think Carpenter’s or Fowler’s contract would be holding it up. Maybe the Cardinals are demanding cash from the Rockies like what the Yankees got from the Marlins. That would seem to be a non-starter.
The Cardinals could certainly come up with an offer much better than what the Yankees had to give up. Fowler, Bader, Knizner, Ponce de Leon should easily satisfy the Rockies. Their main needs are outfielders who can go and get the ball, catching, and pitching. That actually is a big overpay based on what the Marlins got.March 15, 2020 at 10:02 am #124769
CFICT, Bryan Anderson had 517 PA’s at AA, Knizner had 515. After AA is where their career paths differ. Knizner has just 341 PA’s at AAA, Anderson had 1521. For me, this is why Weiters was brought back, to give Knizner more development time playing every day. Knizners D needs to start every day to see if it will continue to develop.
Molina and Weiters are both FA’s-to-be. We’re probably bringing Yadi back, but will there be a need for another Weiters type backup for 2021? Knizners development should answer this, but that’s another offseason away. As long as Knizner has development left to establish I don’t see him as MLB blocked, yet.March 23, 2020 at 2:48 pm #125226
The Cardinals are going to be in the same situation as they were offseason in 20-21 if they can’t figure out a way to create a little space. Looking at the roster and potential areas to create that space, there isn’t much.
Mikolas is a player who might have surplus value. He’s put up 6.1 bWAR in his two seasons with the Cards. If the valuation is 8.5M per WAR, he’s definitely worth his $17M per year. Gant is being used as a reliever with STL, but showed in ST and in 2018 that he is more than capable as a SP. He has a $1.3M 2020 salary so I’m assuming roughly $3M in 2021.
Rotation Options Next 3 Years
2020 (11) – JF, CMart, Hudson, Mikolas, Waino, Ponce, Kim, Gomber, Cabrera, Gant, Woodford
2021 (14) – JF, CMart, Hudson, Mikolas, Ponce, Kim, Gomber, Cabrera, Thompson, Gant, Reyes, Oviedo, Rondon, Woodford
2022 (14) – JF, CMart, Hudson, Mikolas, Ponce, Gomber, Cabrera, Thompson, Gant, Reyes, Oviedo, Rondon, Liberatore, Woodford
The Angels are $20,282,000 under the luxury tax number when everything is figured in for 2020. After signing Rendon, they clearly are pushing to compete for at least a WC spot. With their current rotation options, they don’t have a very high probability of doing so.
Angels get – Mikolas and Gant
Cardinals get – Brandon Marsh (LH OF) and Arol Vera (SH SS)
Why do the Angels do it: they have a top notch lineup, but if you look at their rotation options, Mikolas would likely become their ace and Gant slots in at 3/4. Making two solid rotation additions could be what puts them over the hump to being a in the playoff hunt.
Why the Cardinals do it: they free up roughly $20M for the 20-21 offseason which could be used to make a big splash for a middle of the order bat or make an addition at the trade deadline, if there ends up being one. They add Brandon Marsh who is a top 50 LHH prospect, who looks like a better long term bat than all Cards OFers with the exception of Carlson of course. Vera is a 17 Y/O SS with plenty of upside, but a long way from the MLB. With DeJong locked in at SS for the near future, they can be patient. After striking out with the Delvin Perez pick, they could get a redo with Vera.
They would still have a rotation of JF, CMart, Hudson, Waino and Ponce with Gomber, Kim, Cabrera and Woodford as potential backups. Gomber and Kim would be in almost all other rotations. More importantly for 2020, replacing Mikolas with Ponce or Kim isn’t a down grade in any way.March 23, 2020 at 4:53 pm #125230
Well this is bold, 250 IP from 2019 and we’re sending very little surplus value. Both our guys are already drawing market and near market value. I do like Marsh but haven’t looked up the SS.
If the LAA would take on those $, who would you be in the market for at the deadline / next offseason? Another Mikolas type SP? Betts? 🙂March 23, 2020 at 10:18 pm #125242
JJ, I’m not saying I’m 100% for it, but Arenado is always a possibility until he’s traded… Betts is highly unlikely.
One dream of mine is DeJong at 3rd and Lindor at SS. If my trade idea happened, that would free up enough $ for a pre 2021 trade, with Carp and Fowler off the books in 2022, resigning Lindor would be feasible.
Vera is a 17 year old 2M signing out of Venezuela. Young and raw but could be a future star, there is a chance he busts of course….. see Perez, Delvin.
- This reply was modified 2 weeks, 2 days ago by CardsFanInChiTown.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.