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Just keep in mind as we discuss all of these ideas that I don’t see the Cardinals bumping their payroll beyond the 170-175M range for 2020. We are currently around 163 and will enter 2020 around 147 and that is with Ozuna, Wacha, and Waino off the books.
Personally I think guys like Cole and Rendon are out of the question unless ownership is ready to sanction a significant bump in payroll, which is highly unlikely considering they like to be incremental.
I agree the Cardinals aren’t really in the Cole sweepstakes. But that’s really the only way the Cardinals would have a top-of-the-line rotation.
Atlanta fans were raving mad they started Keuchel in playoff games…And he seems to be one of the most practical upgrades over Wacha.
As for your assertion the Cardinals won’t raise payroll – they can go all the way to the luxury tax and not worry about it. They are a small market team with big market revenue. I don’t see them actually going all the way to the luxury tax, but they can add $20-30 million for a year or two and still be immensely profitable, given their new TV contract and the fact they draw 3+ million fans per year. That would only happen if they were seriously chasing rings, and we know that is not their goal. Their goal is strictly to make the playoffs.
As for your assertion the Cardinals won’t raise payroll – they can go all the way to the luxury tax and not worry about it.
Yes they could but there has never been any indication they would ever do that so I don’t see why 2020 would be an exception. I like to talk about trades and free agents as much as anyone. I could do it all day, however, I prefer to talk about transactions that could be plausible instead of just wishful thinking.
In thinking about other options for the rotation in 2020, I started debating in my little brain if Mikolas would be in which category. Please help.
A) Negative trade value – Cards would have to include money
B) A team would take him with no money attached with nothing to very little in return
C) A team would love to have him and might send back a decent prospect in returnI’d like to hears others thoughts before I state mine….
I know the history doesn’t show the Cardinals will increase payroll a lot in 1 year. However, I think this off season could be different, if they choose to do so. With the amounts coming off the books in the next 2 years, they could bump payroll for 1 year and it could drop back down over the next 2 years.
With the amounts coming off the books in the next 2 years, they could bump payroll for 1 year and it could drop back down over the next 2 years.
They could do that but the problem is once you bump payroll up to a certain level it is hard to bring it back down again because fans expect payroll to go up each year. I am afraid that most of our fans would forget about the temporary increase and would rage against the ensuing austerity. I think this is why the Cardinals usually have small incremental increases each year.
As we have talked about before we have really handcuffed ourselves with Carp extension, Mikolas extension, and Fowler contract, not to mention the dead money of Cecil and Leake. We are just going to have to suck it up for a couple of more years until those contracts are gone.
gscottar:
You are right about the front office and payroll. Sadly, incremental will not win the World Series.
I would not have a problem at all with them raising payroll quite a bit in 2020 and letting it drop over the following 2 years. If that is what it takes to make sure they stay financially comfortable, so be it. I just want them to take advantage of the opportunity to upgrade. I understand it will take time to get past the contracts to Carpenter, Fowler and Cecil.
And, yes, Nate, they can win the World Series by being incremental. It just makes it tougher.
I agree with the fact that the $175M mark is all they would go to, and $147 is what it’s at now, but Cards fans seem to forget that it’s possible to shed some payroll then add it back. Mo just doesn’t “shake things up” so we Cards fans forget that win win trades happen. They won’t do a Dombrowski or Dipoto level shake up, but it severely needs to be done more than they have done in Mo’s tenure. Wong in the .280’s and all the other regulars in the .260 or below range, or WELL below that doesn’t work.
The “creativity” of the front office is the biggest problem with them, the payroll and profit for the owner isn’t on them, that’s all Dewallet and his $150M plus profit and valuation gain each year.
Is it possible the Rockies would trade Wade Davis for Fowler and cash , or a prospect?
I’m sure the Rockies would love to move Davis. He was terrible in 2019 after being a fearsome closer in years past. He and Fowler have similar money left on their contracts. If I were the Cardinals I might consider a one for one trade but I wouldn’t see the need to add cash and a prospect. Fowler was better than Davis in 2019.
Fowler used to play for the Rockies and I’m not sure they would want him roaming the most expansive outfield in MLB along with another subpar OF in Blackmon, but if they were interested in a one for one bad contract swap I would consider that.
I don’t see Fowler waiving his no-trade clause. Even shedding Waino, Wacha, and Ozuna salaries, the payroll goes up because Wong, Mikolas, MCarp (ouch) are all gonna make more than what’s lost. The only guys you can realistically trade to shed salary are Wong, CMart, and MCarp, and I don’t know why you’d trade the first two guys because then you have to replace them for roughly the same $ amount or have a worse performer step into those two positions, and I don’t think you can move MCarp unless you eat half of what he’s supposed to make the next two years (which I would still do…hello Texas?).
You can probably afford to sign a second tier rotation guy like Keuchel, or a “closer” like Will Smith if CMart goes back in the rotation (even though you need both), and then maybe they’ll trade some of their pitching and outfield depth for a legit MLB left fielder. I still think they want one more minor league year for Gorman and Carlson. I don’t see them going after any of the big names though or approaching the luxury threshold. They’re making a tidy little profit and they can point to an NL Central championship doing it “The Cardinal Way.”
That Cecil contract really was bad. They overpaid for a poor man’s Andrew Miller, and then they still had to go out and sign the real Andrew Miller 3 years later after he peaked.
I think it is quite possible they will add payroll this year, and shed some next year. Because what you have to look at is who they are replacing.
This year:
– They are likely replacing Wieters with Knizner, which will save them $1 million (Yadi has to agree to let Knizner play at least once per week though)
– They are likely replacing Ozuna with Arozorena, unless Ozuna accepts the QO. In that case, they will likely try to move Fowler, though one can easily argue it is Fowler that should go anyway. The least amount they will save is $10 million if Fowler is traded, $11.7 million if Ozuna walks
– Wainwright reached all his incentives this year, and made $10 million. It will likely take at least $15 million to secure a replacement, so half the savings from the outfield are used up.
– Wacha is definitely gone, and he only made $6 million this year. We’ll again assume at least $15 million for a replacement, which leaves the Cardinals in a $3 million deficit at this point.
– Tony Cingriani is coming off the books, so that saves $2.6 million. Let’s call Cardinals spending even at this point.
– Luke Gregorson, Jedd Gyorko and Mike Leake will save the Cardinals another $12 million this year…In arbitration, you have Dominic Leone, John Gant and Alex Reyes. Reyes and Leone are not getting raises. Let’s say Gant gets a $1 million raise. That leaves an $11 million surplus, which should probably be used on Will Smith…
Next year:
– Yadier Molina and his $20 million come off the books. Yadi may decide he wants to play some more, but it won’t be at $20 million. Let’s say $10 million safely comes off the books
– Andrew Miller – $11.5 million. If we sign Will Smith this year, don’t need to replace Miller next year. Saves $11.5 million
– Brett Cecil – $7.25 million – he is actually at his best for the Cardinals when he is not playing. So, use AAA taxi squad and save $7.25 million
– Mike Leake – $4 million – Finally comes off the books altogther.Now, next year, the Cardinals will have a lot of people become arbitration eligible, so let’s call that $10 million in raises. They should still lower their payroll by $20 million next year…Assuming several of the outfielders actually prove themselves…
So, could the Cardinals tack on $20 million in extra payroll this year and get an ace like Cole, still get somebody like Will Smith and still replace Wainwright? And have their payroll fall back to what it was this past year? Yes.
I think the team we have at the end of this year will be similar to next year minus the FA Ozuna…we won’t pay top dollar for anything…Mo will throw some CRAP against the wall and hope something sticks…
MPWR2, What you posted earlier today is similar to what you posted back on September 7, which is to list all of the upcoming savings but forgetting to mention all of the upcoming salary increases. This is what I wrote back then:
MPWR2,
What you didn’t mention is the money that the Cardinals are adding to the payroll.
Goldy: $15.5 to $26= $10.5 add
Carp: $14.75 to $18= $3.25 add
Miller: $11.0 to $11.5= $.5 add
Mikolas: $8.0 to $17= $9 add
Wong: $6.5 to $10.25= $3.75 add
JMart: $1.125 to $2.125 = $1 addSo we have $28M in salary increases plus an arb increase for Gant and possibly Leone plus all of the players who will be making the minimum, and we will still owe Mike Leake $4M. Even without Ozuna, Waino, Wacha, and Cingrani on the books we are looking at a payroll of over $150M. Our payroll this year was a little over $160M, so unless DeWitt authorizes a nice payroll increase I don’t see the room to do much unless we trade some existing payroll.
In arbitration, you have Dominic Leone, John Gant and Alex Reyes.
One minor point to note…Reyes is not arb eligible. As his injury this year came while he was in the minors, he didn’t accumulate the service time to lose his minimum salary status, so they will have him there for another year before arb. One lucky break, I guess. No pun intended.
gscottar – the salary increases they did last year (Carpenter, Goldy, DeJong) are part of a multi-year planning process (just like strategic planning in any corporation). Those numbers are already figured into their budget for the upcoming year.
The Cardinals made $65 million in profits on $365 million in sales in 2018, according to Forbes. Their payroll represented roughly 45% of revenues versus industry average of 54%. If the Cardinals’ revenues remained the same, and they increased their payroll as % of revenue to MLB average, that would imply an expected payroll of roughly $197 million.
Your argument is the Cardinals should make their team worse than it was this year, because they made foolish contract extensions last year.
I wouldn’t put too much faith in Forbes. It’s nothing but a ‘best guess’. A couple of years ago Boras made a best guess of their revenue at $270M.
MPWR2, you are 100% correct on the $65M, but you did leave out the increase of valuation of the team (likely $75-100M) and revenue “The Cardinals” make from BPV. Neither of those are included in your number.
When anyone on here says they “can’t” go above $175M, the word should always be replaced with “won’t”. The Cardinals execs have done an outstanding job of keeping the casual fans thinking they are a poor mid market team.
gscottar – the salary increases they did last year (Carpenter, Goldy, DeJong) are part of a multi-year planning process (just like strategic planning in any corporation). Those numbers are already figured into their budget for the upcoming year.
The Cardinals made $65 million in profits on $365 million in sales in 2018, according to Forbes. Their payroll represented roughly 45% of revenues versus industry average of 54%. If the Cardinals’ revenues remained the same, and they increased their payroll as % of revenue to MLB average, that would imply an expected payroll of roughly $197 million.
Your argument is the Cardinals should make their team worse than it was this year, because they made foolish contract extensions last year.
No, my argument is to look at the history of what the Cardinals have done to determine what they will do in the future. I know they are a profitable company but that doesn’t mean they will move payroll to the luxury tax line. What historical precedent gives you reason to believe that will happen?
I have never said the Cardinals should incrementally bump payroll to 170-175. I said I think that is what they will do. Big difference. Therefore, I don’t see much need in talking about Cole, Rendon, Betts, Lindor, or any other mega star because I don’t think it will happen.
Just because we don’t like some of their bad contracts doesn’t mean they aren’t actually there. They are there and we have to live with that.
As of this morning their 2020 projected payroll is about $154M plus two potential arbitration cases. Assuming they bump payroll to the 170-175 range they don’t have a lot of room to maneuver. Thinking other wise is being oblivious to reality and living in fantasy land.
Here is my attempt at looking at the Cardinal payroll chart for the next five years. I have included 26 players worth of salary based on who is availalbe to day (doesn’t include Ozuna, Waino, Wacha, Wieters). I also used $600k as the league minimum for 2020. That number hasn’t been determined yet but it will be close to that. The names at the bottom of the list don’t have a salary attached because they are beyond the 26 limit. That doesn’t mean they won’t make the team. I just didn’t want to inflate the estimate because we don’t know who will actually head north out of spring training.
Paul Goldschmidt: $26.000, $26.000, $26.000, $26.000, $26.000
Yadier Molina: $20.000
Matt Carpenter: $18.500, $18.500, Opt
Miles Mikolas: $17.000, $17.000, $17.000, $17.000
Dexter Fowler: $16.500, $16.500,
Carlos Martinez: $11.700, $11.700, Opt Opt
Andrew Miller: $11.500, Opt
Kolten Wong: $10.250, Opt
Brett Cecil: $7.250
Jose Martinez: $2.125, Arb 2, Arb 3
Paul DeJong: $1.667, $4.167, $6.167, $9.167, Opt, Opt
Dominic Leone: Arb 3, Arb 4
John Gant: Arb 1, Arb 2, Arb 3
Jordan Hicks: $0.600, Arb 1, Arb 2, Arb 3
Jack Flaherty: $0.600, Arb 1, Arb 2, Arb 3
John Brebbia: $0.600, Arb 1, Arb 2, Arb 3
Harrison Bader: $0.600, Arb 1, Arb 2, Arb 3
Dakota Hudson: $0.600
Yairo Munoz: $0.600
Giovanny Gallegos:$0.600
Tommy Edman: $0.600
Tyler O’Neill: $0.600
Tyler Webb: $0.600
Lane Thomas: $0.600
Ryan Helsley: $0.600
Genesis Cabrera: $0.600
Danie Ponce de Leon:
Andrew Knizer:
Junior Fernandez:
Rangel Ravelo:
Randy Arozarena:
Edmundo Sosa:
Totals : $154.29, $93.867, $49.167, $52.167, $26.000, $-Mike Leake $4.000
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