July 2, 2019 at 11:33 am #96556
I wouldn’t invest any more money in this group or trade prospects. Sure the NLC is starting to look like a joke. The division winner may only have 85 wins but then what? I wouldn’t want to lose our top prospects only to then get swept by the Dodgers or Braves in the playoffs.
I think this team needs to take a step back, be willing to eat some money to get rid of Carp and Fowler. We could deal Wacha for a lottery ticket, deal JMart for something, maybe deal Miller for something, then in the offseason take the draft pick after Ozuna declines the QO, let Gyroko walk, and yes let Waino walk. If Mo brings Waino back yet again I will be disappointed.
Let’s let the young guys play next year. Sure we may only be a 75-80 win team but at least we will have some energy, save some payroll, restock the farm, and be ready for a big push in 2021 and 2022. By then guys like Montero and Carlson may be here, Gorman will be knocking on the door, and Nunez and Torres will be getting closer. We will have freed up enough money to take on another expensive FA to bolster the kids.
For next year I would like to see what guys like Edman, Munoz, O’Neill, Thomas, Adolis-Garcia, Knizer, Woodford, and hopefully Reyes can do with a FULL year in St. Louis. I think this fan base can handle a one year reset despite what ownership thinks.
July 2, 2019 at 12:04 pm #96564
- This reply was modified 2 weeks ago by gscottar.
You proposed Reyes (injured, underperforming), Montero (injured, underperforming), Baker (#22 STL prospect) and Poncedeleon for Merrifield earlier. KC will never go for that. They have Nick Protto who is ranked in the top 10 1b prospects in the minors. Poncedeleon is a #4 or #5 starter at best. There is a belief that Montero may need to move from 3B. You used Reyes as a starter for the Cardinals in your last post.
We need 2 of Ponce, Woodford, Gomber and Reyes to step up and be starters next year. Wacha and Wainwright will be gone. We also need to have some depth in the rotation for injuries or poor performance.
You list Garcia, Montero, Mendoza, Capel and Williams and wonder where they fit. None of them are ready to step up to the majors. It looks like all of them will need at least some of next year to get ready, as well. So they are not blocked by the veterans. They are also not being pushed by anyone from below except for Carlson.
We have the following contracts expiring over the next several years:
2019: Ozuna, Wacha, Wainwright, Wieters and Gyorko*
2020: Molina, Wong*, Cecil and Miller*
2021: Carpenter, Fowler and CMart*
We can turn the roster over fairly quick. I would rather upgrade our prospects rather than keep acquiring aging players unless that aging player is an ace starting pitcher like Scherzer.July 2, 2019 at 12:13 pm #96568
With the way Wacha pitched in June, we may not have to trade him for a lottery ticket. We could probably trade him and a prospect for a higher rated prospect of need.July 2, 2019 at 12:21 pm #96571
This article from VEB is about whether to keep Wong or not but the writer does address the situation the team is in now and agrees with the notion is is time for a reset.
Here’s the thing: the Cardinals are, right now, heading for a rebuild/reset/retool, whether they like it or not. I’ve advocated in the past for the club to take that step back, regroup, and come back stronger after a fallow period, but the franchise has refused to do so. And honestly, as much as I may have believed they should take advantage of what they had and try to rebuild, I respect the fact the organisation never has. I admire the fact the Cardinals always try to win, always try to plan for both today and tomorrow, and never choose voluntarily to lose now in order to try and hopefully win later. Admittedly, there have been multiple occasions when I have felt as if they’ve handicapped themselves both by trying to win and not trying hard enough, if that makes sense, but it is an admirable thing, I think, to watch an organisation try to thread the needle year after year without ever missing a beat.
Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked. The half-measures didn’t work, leaving the club in limbo without stars around which to build and concentrate value. And then, the whole measures didn’t work either; the Cards’ willingness to enter the top of the market the past two offseasons has yielded a solid left fielder and a declining former stud at first base. Andrew Miller has been fairly remarkable since a rough first couple weeks, but those first couple weeks were doozies. None of the moves have been transformative as was hoped. The Cardinals have used up a lot of resources trying to keep this window propped open, and it is nonetheless creeping lower and lower all the time, it seems.
With all this in mind, it’s not so much that I think the Cardinals are going to be sellers this year; I believe they will likely ride this hand to the bitter end, hoping against hope that the design which seemed so wise both in the offseason and all the way through April will come back around to looking brilliant in the chill gold dusklight of October. Rather, I think this franchise will be forced, finally, to retool by simple failure, and exhaustion. The collapse of the rotation, with no real reinforcements in the immediate offing thanks to the fragility of arms in general and one arm in particular. An offense without an engine, made doubly sad by the expenditure to purchase one and the creeping age which has stolen the chance. And a failure to launch — or at least to blossom and break out — on the parts of multiple young players the franchise was counting on. These are the bells which toll doom for the Cardinals’ window.
July 2, 2019 at 12:43 pm #96575
- This reply was modified 2 weeks ago by gscottar.
It is style and make up of player, not necessarily raw stats.
Key is finding the RIGHT players that all fit together well. We are lacking MAJOR parts of the offense now that Fowler and CArp are no longer on base machines. They were supposed to hit leadoff and #2 and setup Ozuna and Goldy a 1-2 punch of guys on base. BUT neither of them can do either of those jobs, and we dont have anyone that can fill those roles in other positions (Wong, JMart, BAder, Yadi are all no gos)
We have no leadoff man, we have the worst leadoff AVG in all of baseball i believe (south of .200)
-Whit Merrifield fixes that, speed, a bit of power, high average and flex in the field and good defender, controlled for cheap for 4 more years. Even as a utility role if he ages in the 3rd or 4th year his contract would be fine and not an albatross
Another solid AVG hitter is needed too, to help prop up the offense and give our power hitters more men on base to stop them from shifting and singling them out. If they could be another LH bat with pop, all the better
-David Peralta fits nicely. Great average, good pop, solid defender…control for next year too, would help ease loss of OZuna if need be.
-Adam Eaton is another option, solid and unspectacular, but decent speed and pop, soldi defense, and good average, abit injury prone, but doesnt seem to effect his performance when he is out there. He is 30, but has a 2 team options around 10mil.
Yes it requires moving Fowler, and JMart…but the style of play we get from Fowler and JMart are not helpful to the woes of the team (FOwler no longer is an on base machine, nor great defender with great speed in CF, JMart may hit for average, but cant play defense well enough to utilize him daily, nor does he have the speed to be a pest on the bases as a leadoff man)
Yes, taking on 2 older players may clog the OF a bit more, but it injects guys who have solid to good defense combined with hitting the ball and having high AVGs with speed to make singles doubles and are not concerns about going 1 to 3 or 2 to home, and with pop. Also, the OFers we ahev “ready” haev their own set of concerns as well. Oneill is a strikeout or HR hitter, not useful with the team we have. Thomas seems destined for Grichuk comparisons at best. AdGarcia is athletic and aggressive, but lacking AVG. Arozarena is intriguing, but unproven. Bader is a defensive wiz but his stick is bad.
We have a LOT of 4th OFers, each unique in their 4th OF abilities. BIG power, BIF glove, Good speed, but none of them are the whole package. And 3 of our 4 OFers on the MLB clubs arent much different and OZuna is debatable, btu at least his ability to drive in runs is high level, and whiel his arm is bad he moves pretty well and runs the bases nicely.
Whit and Peralta as starters with OZuna would fix the offense IMO. They would only clog other problematic players from coming up, and neither would stop the better youngsters from coming.
Yes they would cost some prospects to get, but if you hold your best Carlson, Knizner, Gorman. And deal from the quantity of everyone else, we would be just fine with a so so farm propped up by a few high end prospects. It worked in the past for the MLB club.July 2, 2019 at 12:53 pm #96577
Forsch…i said I don’t know exactly about what it woudl take in the actual deals I am happy to be off, but that doesnt disprove the sentiment… I am not saying what i want to do is going to happen the way i say and if it doesnt there is no other way…i am just trying to put out potential ideas…THE POINT OF THIS thread
I dont see anyone else trying anything, all i see is people saying someone else is wrong and why none of it matters…attack all you want, but i dont see anyone else willing to try out their ideas publicly
If you have a better idea, post it….i’d be happy to chat about someone else’s ideas…
I propose these thoughts, because i only seem to hear people talking about selling or tanking in general terms without thinking of the consequence, or that the kids will make us better, or whatever…when the team is not built for a tear down …. the players and contracts we have in place are not suitable for trading we may be able to find a partner or two for a couple of parts…but we are built for adding not tearing down…..we just have guys signed to TOO much money without room for utilizing young talent,,,BECAUSE our yougn close to ready talent arent really all that much better or different, and if we have to eat so much money to watch them play elsewhere, then it is like we are paying young talent to fail as they may not be difference makers…our difference maker youngsters are a ways off
which is why i suggest buying some olde players that FIT better, who wont be a detriment with super long contracts
…also MOntero and Reyes are still big chips….in fact so much so that I dont think we’d have to offer both for Whit…we woudl still have to find some talent they wanted, but i think it is do-ableJuly 2, 2019 at 3:20 pm #96586
jager, if someone disagreeing with you is attacking, then you shouldn’t post ideas. I have never attacked you. I have given reasons why I believe the trades won’t work. I thought you were putting ideas out there for discussion. If that is not the case, let me know and you can have this thread completely to yourself as a sort of blog.
I do occasionally post ideas for trades although I don’t throw out 10 per month. You believe we should get older and, in your opinion, better. I think we should get rid of the “dead weight” and younger.July 3, 2019 at 12:14 pm #96687
SOrry for using the work “Attack” in response to you Forsch. that is my bad. I was responding to you, but i was actually thinking of others. That isn’t fair and I apologize.
Still, I dont want the Cardinals to get old forever, just briefly. because it matches up with the contracts and other players who will not be moving. We can’t really go young, because there is no room on the roster to make that happen, however we could exchange some of our old for better older that wouldnt hurt us long term, and in effect help us go younger in a way that better lines up with the contracts we have.
And the younger players we COULD bring up, dont seem like difference makers to me at all. There is no Nick Senzel or Tatis or whomever waiting for a veteran to get traded for a spot. There are good role players with some upside, but even the ones with more potential impact dont really fit what we are missing. ONEill is power for days, but he is probably a Grichuk v2 who has value, but not on a team that needs more guys that can make contact.
The young pitchers also are suspect, quality back end pitchers, but that really isnt what we need. We need top flight guys, dealing from the value of the 4-5 starters we have is smart if they cant use that value in our rotation. Reyes provides the best idea of an Ace from the farm, but the team doesn’t need a future Ace, they need an Ace right now. Dealing Reyes for help now whether in hitting or in finding an Ace seems prudent if we can maximize his value to a team that doesn’t need Reyes to be an Ace. (Washington?)
As I said, we have two players who are not doing what they were brought in or kept to do. Carp and Fowler were both supposed to be on base guys who set up the middle of the order. They cant do that anymore. They both seemingly have turned into either extreme pull power hitter like Carp who is at the mercy of the shift, or a slowing down Corner OF who cant really switch hit anymore and offers limited offensive abilities with his current skill set. neither Carp or Fowler were intended to bat 5-8, they were intended to be 1-2. Which is fine if you have players which can take their place, but we dont have them. Our 5-8 roles were filled with defensive minded players (Bader and Wong), with a slightly better offensive defender (Yadi), and an out of place DH playing OF (JMart). none of those guys really are a 1-2 on base guy. With all respect to JMart who I think COULD be a 2 man
We have the worst leadoff stats in baseball,…and our only internal options that have even the slightest chance to fill those roles, Edman and Munoz, are blocked by veterans who cant or will not be traded. Carp, Wong, DeJong.
If we can move Fowler and JMart (2 guys who dont really fit what we are lacking) (and if JMart played fine defense i would consider him for 2 spot), then i think we could make up for that loss with a couple of quality veterans….
Fowler and JMart are still under control, so we have to assume their roles are in place and commitment to other players to replace them of better quality for similar amounts of commitment is not too far out of line with what the FO is willing to do.
Yes, if we could acquire Peralta/Eaton and Whit (and maybe Max?) we would be getting a little older (but not much really as Fowler and Jmart arent young)…but it wouldnt be forever
Fowler for lottery ticket, eat enough money to make re-signing Ozuna work (combine with Gyorko leaving to make the money even out)
Eaton + Scherzer
Reyes + ONeill + Helsley + AdGarcia + JRodriguez + Oviedo
-WASH clears money for Rendon extension, Also, they bring back a young upside Reyes who doesnt have to be an Ace on a team with Stras and Corbin, Oneill provides a big bopper bat to the OF which already has contact and speed. Helsley is upside closer or starter. AdGarcia provides depth OF, ROdorigues is a pretty exciting young hitting catcher, and Oviedo is solid under the radar yougn pitcher
-Cardinals get their homegrown ACe and a solid hitting OFer who wont hurt you offense or defense, and whose contract is manageable and has team options
Montero + JMart + Poncedeleon + Thomas
-KC gets a real DH and good hitter in JMArt under contract for cheap, a very good young highly rated hitter in Montero a ready to go rotation piece with good results already and a young OFer with power ready to play
-Cardinals get their lead off man, 5 tool guy, super cheap control and contract makes sense even if he loses some of his ability as he gets older
These deals are not perfect, in fact probably not close. Several of the names could change, most of them even. We could even add more to the deals and not gut our system. Just hold onto Gorman, Carlson, Knizner
So, yes we get older a bit, but more so we just exchange older talent with other older talent that fits better with our needs and into the current makeup of the team. To do so means we have to give up some key pieces from the farm, a lot of them probably. But none of them are irreplaceable and they still have good value on the market, they just dont fit in with the current team makeup.
Of the players i suggested we deal: highlights
Reyes – Max
Helsley – Mayers, FA RP find (we dont seem to be wanting to use him as a starter)
Folwer JMart ONeill – Whit and Eaton, but also Carlson, Randy, Ravelo, Williams etc.
Montero – Gorman
Ponce – Woodford Gomber and we could find another FA 4/5 SP…we actually do well with that
We are built to compete now with the contracts in hand. Going younger is a nice idea, but to do so would not really work IMo with the makeup of the contracts and ages of the players.
We could go for it now, and keep our best prospects, and slowly feed them in so that we are a young team by 2022.July 3, 2019 at 4:00 pm #96691
Interesting concept Jager. It is probably something Mo is more likely to do instead of taking a more strip it down approach that I advocate.
Of the names you mention I am not a big fan of Eaton any longer and I don’t think the Nats have any designs of selling so that rules out Scherzer.
I do like Merrifield though (a lot) and I like Peralta.
The Cardinals have created this mess with all of their silly long term contracts to aging players. We have really limited our financial flexibility. I might be able to go along with your plan if I had guarantee that Mo wouldn’t sign Merrifield, Peralta, Eaton. etc… to 5 year extensions once they got here but I doubt he could contain himself, especially if one of them went on a five game hitting streak or something.July 5, 2019 at 12:31 pm #96947
I wonder if the emergence of Edman could make Wong expendable. Wong is a great defender but can’t consistently hit. We know Carp isn’t going anywhere because of his contract but Wong might have some value either this month or in the offseason.July 5, 2019 at 2:24 pm #96956
<I wonder if the emergence of Edman could make Wong expendable.>
More likely make Carpenter expendable. He can’t hit or defend. Plus Edman plays several positions and 3B is our weakness with Carpenter.July 5, 2019 at 3:36 pm #96965
I wish that were true MM3 but Carp is owed a lot more money than Wong. I doubt any other team would take Carp’s contract unless the Cards ate a lot of it which they won’t do.July 6, 2019 at 2:26 pm #97119
If there is one team in MLB that we know is going to make multiple trades between now and July 31 it is Seattle with Dipoto. Perhaps the Cardinals and Mariners could match up?
This proposal may sound crazy but how about we bring back Leake and also get Mallex Smith and Roenis Elias?
Leake has been pretty darn good this year. He would look much better in our rotation than Wacha would and we are already paying him anyway. Seattle would like to move his salary. Smith is a speedy LH OF. He isn’t a great hitter but is certainly no worse than Bader. Elias is a LH reliver who is having a very good year. Leake is under contract for 2020 plus an option for 2021. Smith and Elias are both cost controlled for the next few years.
In exchange we send Seattle something like JMart, Bader, Mayers, and Cabrera.
We have an OF mix of Ozuna, Smith, Fowler, and O’Neill.
Leake, while not elite, really solidifies the rotation. Look at his numbers this year.
Elias has been Seattle’s best reliever this year. He would just make our pen that much stronger.July 6, 2019 at 10:26 pm #97165
No comment about the rest of the deal, but my gut says bringing Leake back would be very, very low odds.July 6, 2019 at 10:32 pm #97169
I understand that Leake “didn’t fit in” with the Cardinals somehow although I have never heard the details. Regardless, we now have a different manager, he is pitching as well as any starter we have, and we are already paying some of his salary anyway.July 8, 2019 at 8:35 am #97297
A Giants writer offers a rumor. JMO, but it would seem to take a lot more to secure a proven starting pitcher.
Cardinals looking for a starter. Am told this pitcher, Daniel Ponce de Leon, could be dangled in trade. He is a 27-year-old rookie who will not be eligible for free agency until he turns 21 in 2025.
— Henry Schulman (@hankschulman) July 7, 2019July 8, 2019 at 8:48 am #97301
Personally I would hate to lose Ponce for a two month rental but Madbum would be hard to turn down.July 8, 2019 at 8:48 am #97302July 8, 2019 at 8:58 am #97307
I think a Leake reunion seem unlikely, but an interesting thought
Elias and Smith are also intriguing, Elias would be a nice somewhat under the radar move
i have always liked Smith, though i am not sold on his recent top play, even as i think he is trying to use his power too much when his speed is his best asset IMO
I wonder if we could buy “somewhat” lo on Haniger (who is recovering from a worse version of Yadi’s injury last year…ouch
He isnt having the greatest year before injury, but the guy is a good all around player. He is 28, and ARB eligible next year fr the first time, but controllable until 2023 (his age 31 year), we’d be buying his prime years and only paying ARB
I like Smith for the year he is having, but i like Haniger better if i am taking on a guy…even if my instincts are to go with an old school speed OF leadoff type
I like Elias as he is also cheap and ARB eligible next year, solid LH backend help…Webb seems to be fading
Haniger + Elias would be a nice look IMO, i doubt they want ONeill back…
It would take more than Ponce but the upgrade would be better short and long term IMO
Move Fowler for more than we thought to a contender like CLE in need of OF help (still have to et money)
Maybe we could package JMart + Wong + Oneill + Woodford to KC for Whit and Duffy
I like Whit at his contract and age even…ive talked a lot about it…
Duffy isnt a star Ace, but he is controllable solid on a poor club and LH which is i think what we need more than an ACE….
As a part of all this, we still control all of what we acquire so any losses in prospects are not shortsighted, an upside OFer like Haniger allows for Ozuna to go if we want room for other OFers (Carlson) or more defense in CF in Bader…though do keep in mind Whit plays 2b well and coudl move around from OF to to IF if we want to play Edman at 3b as well as 2b
Whit, Haniger, DeJong, Goldy, Ozuna, Carp, Yadi, Edman
Whit, Haniger, DeJong, Goldy, Carp, Yadi, Edman, Bader/Carlson/RandyJuly 8, 2019 at 9:13 am #97310
Cardinals27ParticipantPaid - Annual
No way do I want Leake back. We have enough 30 somethings in the rotation. I would rather try Woodford or PDL in the rotation. Not sure why PDL hasn’t surpassed Wacha in the pecking order. If we could get some insurance with say Gomber coming back from injury, I say deal Wacha for a prospect. And as far as acquiring Peralta goes, I would think Fowler would have to be dealt, and I don’t see that happening. While I like the move, the Cardinals wouldn’t eat enough of Dex’s remaining salary to make the deal.July 8, 2019 at 9:58 am #97314
According to this year’s numbers Leake would probably be our best starter right now. Just saying.July 9, 2019 at 10:05 am #97382
If the Cubs swoop in and get Peralta for nothing (they don’t have much to offer IMO, though i could see them trying to sell Ian Happ high even though he doesn’t seem to be anything like what he was last year), i will pretty upset…I dont care if it means sending a kid to AAA or putting another well paid guy on the bench, Peralta’s left hand AVG and good pop bat and solid defense would be an upgrade over what we have
They got Murphy last year for nothign when we could have used him and IMO that swung the the season last year for the Cubs.
Peralta is still under control for another year and could make losing Ozuna to FA much more palatable if the FO decides they cant afford Ozuna with all the other contracts they have in place
I wonder if we could target Archie Bradley too, they seem to have soured on him a bit but he has good stuff and control
Pair that with a move for a left handed starter (MadBum ugh, Duffy, Minor) and a LH Reliever (Smith,Watson,Diekman,Elias), and make sure Edman is starting every game somehow and i think that would be enough to push us over the edge…i think we need 2 good bats to get the offense going, and Edman seems to be working right now…and a replacement for Hicks and Webb i think is in order…and we coudl upgrade
Peralta + BRadley for Woodford + Montero + Schrock + Capel
JMart + Wong + Mendoza + Gomber for Duffy and Diekman
(i really would want to try to pry Whit ,but i would be fine with Peralta from AZ)
Fowler to CLE for lottery ticket
Gyorko to BOS for lottery ticket
Wacha + AdGarcia + Urias to MIN for Willians Astudillo (replace Wieters for 2020 and solid bench bat and util)
Edman, Peralta, DeJong, Goldy, Ozuna, Carp, Yadi, Bader
ONeill, Wieters, AStudillo, Munoz
Mik, Jack, Hudson, Duffy, Waino/Ponce
CMart, Bradley, Diekman, Miller, Gallegos, Brebbia, Gant, Waino/Mayers/Helsley
Edman, Peralta, DeJong, Goldy, Carp, Yadi, ONeill/Randy/Carlson, Bader
Carlson, Astudillo, Munoz, Arozarena, Ravelo (remember everyone adds a bench player next year)
Mik, Jack, Duffy, Hudson, CMart/Reyes/Ponce
Bradley, Miller, Diekman, Gallegos, Brebbia, Gant, Mayers, Genesis…and eventually Hicks
I think that 2019 would get a strong push, and 2020 would allow for Carlson to step forward while also having room for other movement in the OF, also Astudillo solves our backup catcher need and doesnt stand in the way of Knizner as Astudillo can serve very well on the bench even in a non-backup catcher role, he can play pretty much anywhere in the field and makes great contact as a pinch hitter. His ability to catch allows not only him to hit more as a pinch hitter but also Knizner to be used as pinch hitter as a 3 catcher team and 2 catcher bench allows for both to be utilized more.
I like Astudillo, and he seems to be stuck behind 2 guys already for MINJuly 9, 2019 at 11:13 am #97396
jager, keep in mind that sometimes who a team receives for a traded player depends on the depth of the organization. If the Diamondbacks think the Cardinals have better prospects and a deeper system, they may require a better return from the Cardinals than from the Cubs. It doesn’t seem logical but it is a negotiating ploy. Try to get more from the deeper pockets.July 9, 2019 at 12:05 pm #97400
They got Murphy last year for nothign when we could have used him and IMO that swung the the season last year for the Cubs.
Don’t remind me. I still get frustrated by that transaction falling into their lap.
When are teams going to stop giving players away to the Cubs? They don’t need welfare.July 9, 2019 at 12:11 pm #97401
This Murphy urban legend continues to grow. His bWAR with the Cubs last season was -0.2. That is a negative zero point two, meaning he COST them one-fifth of a win (compared to Joe Replacement-Level-Player). Maybe it is just me, but I prefer adding players that deliver a positive benefit.
Before he got hurt, Murphy’s bWAR with Colorado this season was -0.3. His replacement with the Cubs this season, Daniel Descalso, has a -1.0 bWAR.
P.S. To be fair to those concerned I pick on the Cubs too much without noting St. Louis’ similar issues, I will add that the player the Cards acquired instead of Murphy, Matt Adams, was slightly worse at -0.3 bWAR in his brief return to St. Louis late last season.
Bottom line: None of these guys moved the needle in a positive direction.
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