June 18, 2019 at 7:05 pm #94918
Haven’t both Bumgarner and Greinke Got no trade clauses that list St Louis as a team they will not accept a trade to?
I don’t know about Greinke, but I know MadBum has a list that he’d have to OK (meaning, they have to $weeten the pot for him to accept any trade$).June 26, 2019 at 11:24 am #95854June 30, 2019 at 1:14 pm #96340
I really think this team needs a purge. We need to become younger, more athletic, and focus on youth, pitching, and defense. We know this team is not going to win with offense anytime in the next year ot two so let’s try to emphasize what we can.
I said it a couple of weeks ago and I will say it again: we are the Giants of the NLC. We have too many highly paid, underperforming veterans that need to be gone. Yes, we will have to eat some money but let’s do it anyway.
Before the start of next season we need to be rid of: Carp, Fowler, Wainwright, Ozuna, Wieters, Leone, Wacha, Gyroko, and maybe Miller and a couple of others.
I wouldn’t mind seeing an infield of Edman, DeJong, Wong, Goldy, and Molina. Molina should then be gone after 2020. Munoz and Knizer should get playing time next year too. Montero might be a phone call away next year.
I wouldn’t mind seeing an outfield of some combination of O’Neill, Bader, Thomas, Williams, Adolis-Garcia, and Arozarena. Bader should ONLY bat against LH’s. Ravelo should be on the team and Carlson might be a phone call away next year.
Mikolas, Hudson, Flaherty, CMart, and Ponce should be the rotation. Maybe Reyes if he is ever healthy. The bullpen would be Gant, Miller (maybe), Gallegos, and Brebbia for sure. The other four spots would be up for grabs. Maybe Hicks returns before the end of next season. Maybe if we want to spend some money in the offseason we splurge on a high end starter and high end bullpen piece.
The management of this organization assumes that this fan base can’t handle a mini rebuild. I disagree. We are more sophisticated than that. Yes we want to win but we are pragmatic enough to know that if what you are doing isn’t working then try something else. I think it would be exciting to see the kids play. If nothing else there would be some energy pumped into the stadium instead of the tomb like environment we have now. Sure the standings say we are in the race but come on. We have a losing record and we all know we are light years from being a world series contender. Play the kids, continue to build the farm, and hopefully next time make smarter choices when it comes to FA signings and extension candidates.
June 30, 2019 at 1:28 pm #96344
- This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by gscottar.
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I’d quibble with a couple of the names you mention but in general I think you’ve got it right. I can take more pleasure in watching some exciting kids play hard and lose than suffer the current slow death.June 30, 2019 at 1:37 pm #96346
Absolutely CIF! Play the kids!
We are stuck on the 80 something win treadmill and we can’t get off of it. There are only two ways to get off. Either try to spend your way out of it or cut bait on some dead weight and do a mini rebuild. We should choose option two. It wouldn’t take five years either. We might take some lumps the next two years but by 2022 we should restocked and ready to reclaim the NLC. That year also coincides with the looming reckoning the Cubs are staring at when most of their core hits FA.
Come on Mr. Dewitt, we can handle it. We can handle the truth! What we can’t handle is “Baghdad Bob” Shildty coming on after each game telling us that everything is fine and going according to plan. We are smarter than that.June 30, 2019 at 8:23 pm #96426
If we are truly going to rebuild, there’s no reason at all to keep Gant or even Brebbia. May as well cash in the chips while they’re the most valuable.June 30, 2019 at 11:01 pm #96442
Maybe so if we can get much in return for them. But I am thinking more of a mini rebuild instead of complete tear down. Gant and Brebbia don’t make much money and aren’t that old. I would prefer to part with the over 30 crowd who are making the big bucks, plus if we keep our best pitchers we still have a shot at winning some games during the mini rebuild.July 1, 2019 at 6:42 am #96453
For the life of me, I will never understand why the Cards will not just concede defeat and rebuild, while their trade chips (Ozuna, Carp, Wacha, and Gyroko) have some value to a team that might actually contend in the post-season.July 1, 2019 at 8:24 am #96464
I hear you Beo. It defies logic why they continue to stay on the 85 win treadmill instead of jumping off.
From Ken Rosenthal on the Cardinals at the deadline:
Somewhere, Mike Matheny is smiling. It’s not that Matheny should still be the manager – if anything, the Cardinals waited too long before dismissing him at the All-Star break last season. It’s just that the team is sputtering again under Mike Shildt, to the bafflement of many in the sport.
After trading for first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, the Cardinals rank 21st in the majors in runs per game. Their bullpen, defense and baserunning rate well statistically, but virtually every hitter is under-performing. If the offense ever clicks, the Cardinals might actually be a force. But the team leader in OPS, left fielder Marcell Ozuna, just went on the injured list with a fractured finger in his right hand.
While a starting pitcher seems the obvious need, should the Cardinals even bother?
The recent trade record of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is spotty. The extensions for Goldschmidt at 31 and third baseman Matt Carpenter at 33 look problematic. A fourth consecutive failure to reach the postseason would mark the franchise’s longest since 1988 to ‘95.
Difficult questions are coming for the Cardinals, if they aren’t being asked already.July 1, 2019 at 8:55 am #96473
Even the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, have all rebuilt over the last couple of decades but the Cards seem to never be willing to be a seller at the trade deadline. I don’t get itJuly 1, 2019 at 8:59 am #96474
Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
gscottar, thanks for sharing. I hadn’t read that. (Next time will you also please include the link so we can read the rest of the article?)
From this clip, Rosenthal’s logic seems out of sync to me. He devotes a paragraph outlining the problem scoring runs while noting the additional loss of Ozuna, obviously making the bad problem worse. (Ozuna dwarfs his teammates in RBI.)
Yet his “obvious need” is a starting pitcher when the starters are sixth-best in the league in ERA and the offense is at or near the bottom of the NL no matter which stat you choose – even with Ozuna.
Did he mean a starting pitcher who is also a good hitter? Maybe Ohtani? 😉July 1, 2019 at 9:14 am #96477
We need hitting. period
I think the fans can deal without power, they can even stand no stolen bases, and they can even deal with losses, but they cant deal with not getting hits. It’s that simple
Maybe the StL fans are so old school that they give the greatest value in the old stats (sometimes to a fault)… AVG means something to the Cardinals fans…OPS. OBP, WAR, they are all fine and dandy, but unless ballplayers get hits then they arent playing baseball.
I tend to agree, a nicely drawn walk is great, but there is no replacing the single or double. The HR and triple are the rarities you jump out of your seat for because they ARE rare and should be. Singles and doubles should drive the game and they just arent.
I have said it before, but I would take a team of AVG hitters over the peaks and valleys of HR hitters and walk(takers/getters/giveners(not a word))
I can take the losses if i see competently pitched games with the guys hitting .275+ and not embarassing themselves in the field or on the bases.
Don’t tell me a team of Tony Gwynn’s wouldn’t be awesome to watch. Crap, with today’s game i’d take a team of Adam Eaton’s or Nick MArkakis’.
Consistent if lacking flash hitting is what the team lacks and what it needs desperately, it is what will make the peaks and valleys of Goldy or Carp at this point work. Carp wouldn’t be hitting into the shift all the time if he wasnt hitting leadoff and/or there were guys on base in front of him.July 1, 2019 at 9:15 am #96478
Here is the link to the full article. The phrase that caught my eye was:
While a starting pitcher seems the obvious need, should the Cardinals even bother?
I’m not sure what he meant by that. He either meant we shouldn’t bother because we aren’t good enough to justify being a buyer or we shouldn’t bother because of Mo’s spotty trade record. Personally, I think the former is more of a concern than the latter but the two kind of go hand in hand.
Good morning! Nine teams to watch leading to the July 31 trade deadline. https://t.co/0vRhdsJtZC $
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 1, 2019July 1, 2019 at 9:19 am #96481
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The recent trade record of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is spotty.
Rosenthal is a knowledgeable guy but I think he was being diplomatic and understating the recent Mozeliak legacy.
The Cards won’t be sellers this season because that would be throwing the towel in on what the FO called their “all in” season. Again the big acquisitions of the boys upstairs have disappointed. That is a very evident trend and if Dewitt was interested in the team he would do something about it.
Difficult questions are coming for the Cardinals, if they aren’t being asked already.
I’ve been saying this for some time now… three years. This is becoming an ugly season and DeWitt should have Mozeliak fire the inept Shildt and then the owner should try to save this franchise by axing Mozekiak. Girsch is optional, but still has no experience.
A revamp is necessary but don’t bet too much on our prospects being there to step in. Of position players, only DeJong has stuck in the last two seasons, and the rest are struggling. The options at Memphis are pretty much long-shots to being bonafide MLBers. I’d give AA Carlson the best shot at that for ’20.July 1, 2019 at 9:21 am #96482
Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
Thanks, gscottar. My interpretation of his comment to maybe not bother is that a starting pitcher may not be enough to get them into October. On that point, I agree, but not for the same reason as him. Anyone who watches this team knows they need to score more runs every single day, however they can accomplish it.
This is only an example, but adding another starter could translate into losing every fifth day by a 2-1 score instead of 4-1. The other four days would be the same as now. That would not be enough.July 1, 2019 at 10:29 am #96488
So…for me that is what you have to weed out and find. I have brought up the same names al ot but i do think they are attainable, if difficult.
The acquisition of Fowler made sense at the time, 2 great on base guys at the top with Carp…interesting, even if a mistake without a true 3 and 4 hitter present IMO, buti get it…
Now both are not good at getting on, Fowler is questionable at his hitting role, but seems just a lesser version of himself, while Carp has become a LH pull power hitter who is trying to not act like that is all he is in the world of the shift.
I think i can work with Carpenter, but Fowler has little to no worth if we are trying to fix the team
-Goldy stays…$$$ talks, but also even if he is reduced to power hitting RH he is still valuable
-Yadi stays…extension beyond next year? up to Yadi, and maybe he does 1 more Wainwright like
Wong is a wonderful defender, his improvement against LHP is noted, he also is under contract for more money than most people think. With the right lineup he is fine, and he is an infield Yadi.
Ozuna has been good, good enough to extend. IF you can move another contract. And i think you can pull it off.
JMart is built for DH, until the NL has it he is not worth the problems he presents
Bader is a 4th OF not a starter on a team without enough hitting. He just can’t hit. a 4th OFer like Bader is very valuable.
-Bader stays…for bench
ONEill…gone….all or nothign power hitters have a place, just not on a team with so many
Edman…bench super utility, replaces Wong when the contract is up
Munoz…super utility, perfect for today’s game
Wieters …gone….if anyone wants him…if not hold
-so…we need to move Fowler…Mike LEake taught us a flailing player still has value, even with a big contract, IF we eat some…done…eat a bunch and move on….someone will take him…get a lottery ticket if you can
-And…gyorko when healthy has at least a little value, eat whatever it takes to save a little money or get a lottery ticket
We need a leadoff man that hits for average, and maybe a #2 that does the same. We would have 2 OF spots to make this happen.
Problem is, these guys are either superstars or are young and no one will move them in general.
SO you need to find guys that have other issues (maybe they are getting OVERpaid), or are a bit too old, or they have a longer contract than is ideal.
My goal would be to acquire one player with only a small wart and then one with a bigger wart.
-Whit Merrifield is my prime target and should be. He has a small wart that he isnt the youngest player out there, but he hits and does everything we are lacking and need in a leadoff hitter. HE is worth the prospect fallout
-David Peralta…secondary prime target…not so much a leadoff man, but would fit the 2 or 3 in the lineup…..an old Card farmhand, enough power, LH, fine in the OF, not super expensive, but will cost more because he is controllable until after next year
This is more difficult, but still workable. All are hitting over .275 ..My targets are:
-Adam Eaton…consistent performance, paid too high, some injury concern. WAS may deal him to clear money to try to re-sign Rendon in the offseason
-Nick Markakis…old, but has been the king of consistency in his career
-Shin Soo Choo…paid a TON and is a bit old some injury concerns, but has pop, and is a hitter…perhaps TEX want to clear SOME of his money, i think we coudl work a deal where they ate a chunk of the money
Getting Peralta and MErrifield would be a very nice way to go…but i am not so sure we would want to deal with the prospect fallout,….well i would, but I dont think the management would
BUT you try i think
Whadda ya think it would take to get both of them? Or one of them individually?
MErrifield seems the toughest get, but i think is worth it.
Reyes, POncedeleon, Montero, Lukas Baker?
enough? selling low on Reyes perhaps, but injuries and age are starting to be a thing. KC could use a future ace, and Montero is no slouch of prospect
What about Peralta?
could we offer Woodford, or Gomber (when healthy) + Arozarena or Thomas? and Helsley and ONeill?
I think Eaton would be a nice target too, he isnt flashy, we liked him a while a go. I think WAS woudl love to clear him.
Maybe Helsley + ONeill??
Id like to stay away from losing Carlson or Gorman or Knizner or Hudson
but everyone else is in play IMO…and i like Carlson, but if we had Merrifield and Peralta and OZuna…why not max his value in a trade?
I am going on and on…
super long winded…
but basic premise…get 2 high average guys to leadoff in front of the power hitters, especially Carp so they ant abuse him with the shift, and make it harder for teams to pitch to our thumpJuly 1, 2019 at 11:02 am #96493
Whit Merrifield is my prime target and should be. He has a small wart that he isnt the youngest player out there, but he hits and does everything we are lacking and need in a leadoff hitter. HE is worth the prospect fallout
That is a huge wart in today’s game. He will be 31 before next season opens and that’s just an illogical chance for an organization like the Cards to take. It’s nice that he’s built value for the Royals but I want no part in emptying the farm for someone who will almost assuredly be in decline within a year or two.
Bottom line…he’s the kind of player you sign as a free agent flyer at 34 or 35 with the hopes he catches lightning in a bottle on a 1/2 year low $$ deal. If Mo trades three major league talents for him he should immediately be fired. He won’t do so because Dewitt won’t go for it.July 1, 2019 at 1:23 pm #96501
I agree age is a problem, but saying he will be 31 before next year is pretty disingenuous as he would playing THIS year for the team at 30w. Which isnt terrible.
Perhaps my idea was indeed overpaying, but his value is worth it. He is under control for 3 more years and has a team option after that. I trade good talent to get good production back especially when the price point is so low. 1 good prospect + two good ones woudl be fine. I think JMArt + Montero + GOmber would probably work
You can disagree, but he hasnt had a year where he hit below .283, he got MVP votes last year and is an AS this year. He steals bases too and can play anywhere. He is trending up every year. It’s like paying for the prime years of performance except at a cheap rate.
He is exactly what the Cardinals don’t have coming in their system and at his control and price you really cant go wrong. Even if he turns into supersub in the 2-3 years his price point is nothing.
You might not like his age, but his bat is what we would be buying, and it has only gotten better every year as he has aged.
Still, if we could get him cheaper id be all for it. He would be better than anyone on our team if he was on it. Then go for PEralta to if he comes so cheap. That’d be fine with meJuly 1, 2019 at 1:43 pm #96502
Goldy was also supposed to be good at 30+, as was Fowler. This team has enough aging talent it’s depending on. There’s no need to add another. It’s time to go young.
If the team is going to go for it, it would far better to double down on pitching and bet on Goldy and Marp OPSing .900 the rest of the year rather than hamstring the future by trading elite talent like Reyes and Montero at low prices for a 30+ player. That’s my objection. Do you think Merrifield is going to be a star still at 34?July 1, 2019 at 1:51 pm #96503
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Peralta is going to be 32 in August and is only 2 years younger than Fowler. He strikes out about as much as Fowler and walks less than Fowler. He has marginally better power numbers but he does hit for a higher average than Fowler. I would pass for what he probably will cost to acquire.July 1, 2019 at 3:39 pm #96506
i get the arguments against…i do
i just dont think it matters….we can’t really go young and actually compete for anything, and the FO will not allow us to tank.
Goldy, Carp, Yadi, Mik, Fowler, Wong, Miller….are all win now and for the next 3+years moves…and of those we might be able to move 2-3 of them without eating all of it
The way the team is structured…it CANT go young without spending as much to pay them all to play elsewhere to make tanking not really beneficial
-Peralta and Whit would be making us older, but it would be doing so in a limited way, Peralta is gone after next year and would provide a nice way to allow Ozuna to leave and us to get the QO compensation when he signs elsewhere
-Whit is so cheap it doesn’t really matter if he is star at 34, he would be a star for 30-31-32 at least…i will gladly take 3 years of prime play for the salary and prospects necessary
They both would line up nicely with our contracts ending.
If we can hold onto Gorman, Knizner and Carlson…at least Knizner and Carlson will be ready by 2021., Gorman maybe a year after at worse IMO. Those are impact regime changers IMO. Gorman takes over for Carp in 2022, Carlson for Peralta in 2021, Knizner for Yadi in 2021…Edman or Whit replaces Wong in 2021 as well. Merrifield can play all 3 OF positions or 2b so maybe he is a LF by then who knows. Depends on the other kids. Thomas, Arozarena, Capel, Williams…we have several more kids coming…and BAder coudl still be a starter if we had enough offense that didnt require him to be an offensive important factor…Edman or Whit for Wong woudl alleviate offensive concerns at 2b without sacrificing too much defense, and Knizner looks to be an offense catcher anyways so we should see uptick in C too for production, that would leave CF not needing to be a position of offensive importance
so let’s say Whit and PEralta…for giggles: (we lose Oneill, Montero, Jmart some pitchers, maybe Thomas too, and Fowler and Gyorko are traded, OZuna gets Qo and leaves)
(all guesses OBV, and benches are kind of ridiculous but we do have an extra starting next year)
Whit(CF),Peralta(RF),Goldy, OZuna, DeJong, Carp, Yadi, Wong
-pretty solid lineup…would get us back on track
Whit(LF),Peralta(RF),Goldy, DeJong, Carp, Yadi, BADER(CF), Wong
-pretty good lineup, how fast Carlson can contribute might be the decider, as Wong,Yadi,Bader isnt too strong offensively)
Whit (LF),CARLSON (RF), Goldy, DeJong, Carp, KNIZNER, Bader, EDMAN
-big change year, Carlson, Knizner, Edman all step into major roles, Gorman is close at this point and could take over for Carp during the year)
Whit, Carlson, Goldy, DeJong, GORMAN, Knizner, Bader, Edman
-Whit may be slowing, but hopefully can still hit at the top, but if not, maybe Edman steps into that role, Gorman is a starter now, Knizner starts to be more of a force, CArlson grows
We may get older for the rest of this year and the next, but it would align pretty well with the quality youngsters we have coming as well as trying to maximize the aged players we have already while we are paying them …. there are still holes no doubt…but i think we have the parts to do it…but we need the right players that work right now
It may not be the fanciest plan, but it isnt too bad IMO
you dont have to agree….and i like thinking through all of this
Rotation quick: (i wont do bullpens)
2019: Mik, Jack, Hudson, Wacha, Waino
2020: Mik, Jack, Hudson, CMart, Reyes
2021: Mik, JAck, Hudson, Cmart, Reyes
2022: Mik, Jack, Hudson, CMart, Reyes
– a lot of hope on Reyes and CMArt rejoin rotation next year and going forward…but if not, we can find a FA starter if need be for one of them, and we can always promote kids who move upJuly 1, 2019 at 3:51 pm #96509
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It seems like there are 2 types of players we have as trade chips:
1) Overpriced veterans with extended contracts who will be hard to trade without eating a lot of salary.
2) Prospects, or former prospects who have either been hurt this season, or not living up to potential. I’d hate to deal a Reyes, or O’Neill, etc. on sell low basis.
Barring turnarounds, I am not sure we have trade chips to make a major deal. Outside of Gorman or Carlson, with whom surely they will consider untouchable.
Maybe one of the lefty relievers from the Giants might be the best target. Unless they can find a hot free agent to be bat.July 1, 2019 at 6:57 pm #96520
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Merrifield is basically Jose Martinez who can field. If Martinez could be a good fielder in the infield and outfield, what would it take to trade him? That is what Royals would want to even think about trading Merrifield. With their history, it would take more than that.
I am not willing to trade the future to acquire a couple of players that probably won’t make too much of a difference. It’s time to get younger and try to catch lightening in a bottle for this year. Carpenter and Goldschmidt can both start to hit closer to their norm which will make a HUGE difference in the offense. However, if Carpenter could be traded, they should consider it. Between Edman and Munoz, 3B could be covered. I am more concerned with getting rid of Fowler, Gyorko and JMart. I would trade O’Neill but his value is way down.July 2, 2019 at 10:37 am #96551
Whit Merrifield definitely has better speed than Jose Martinez by far. 30+ SBs the last 2 years is definitely worth mentioning
Also, KC has the DH which is where Jose would thrive, and for cheap, plus Jose has more power.
What future are we really giving up? I dont see how the youth can help this team in the next 2 years, and i dont see how we can “go young” with the contracts on hand.
We have a significant amount of resources invested in this year and the following 2 years. MAYBE you see Carlson in there, MAYBE Knizner as a backup, and a BIG maybe Gorman on the bench…but you don’t deal from those guys anyways…unless it is a crazy get
Wong, Yadi, Carp, Goldy, Miller, Fowler, Mikolas are all on board for this year and next no matter what and many of them after that as well.
The team cant be fixed by going young and the talent that is close is being wasted by all the veterans who arent allowing for them to be played. And if the team is not willing to move those veterans then it seems pretty obvious that you HAVE to invest in the right now and use some or a lot of your talent to make it work right now.
Where does Ponce, Gomber, Woodford, ONeill, Thomas, AdGarcia, Montero, Mendoza, Capel, Williams, fit?
-We have 4/5 spots in the rotation filled going forward…(Mik,Jack,Hudson,Reyes)and I think most people want it filled with an Ace…which i dont see…unless we move CMart back…and “ace” may never be his identifier…Reyes will get every chance to start if he is around. IF he isn’t, then maybe one of the glut of competent pitchers has a shot….leaving about 2-3 with no job except long-relief. Seems like we should try to sell high on them. We seem to have better luck with finding competent cheap FA SPs anyways that can fill a spot if need be
-There is maybe one OF spot (but Bader, Fowler, JMart seem pretty locked in and if we re-sign Ozuna definitely no room)…so where does AdGarcia,Randy, ONeill,Thomas,Williams,Carlson, Capel fit in? Selling high on their value seems to make a lot of sense if we arent going to move veterans
-infield? i don’t see a spot anywhere. not for at least 2 years when Wong’s option comes up, and same for catcher. So where does Montero, Mendoza, Sosa, Schrock, Urias, Ravelo, or anyone halfway close play? the corners are full another year, SS even longer
So what is this future we are giving up by dealing from the farm? All those players have limited futures on the team with the veteran contracts in place.
Gorman, Knizner, Carlson…don’t move… but anything else shoudl be on the block. And if we can move a coupel of our contracts and positions and find a couple veterans who play well, and whose contracts match up nicely with the veterans and spots available then why not.
We will be wasting the talent anyways with how it is constructed anyways, might as well lean into the hear and now
Those successful early 2000’s teams were heavy on veterans and the farm had not much in it….the rotation was not really homegrown, and we needed FA bullpen help too…. I woudl love to have a farm that made the ballclub self sufficient but we have more of track record of winning not in that way than we do with that strategy….Sure you lean on your stalwart homegrowns (Waino, Pujols, Yadi)…but you fill out your good teams with outside veterans via trade or FA….Edmonds, Renteria, Rolen, holliday, Lohse, Williams, Smoltz, Berkman, Furcal, Eckstein, Encarnacion, Sanders,July 2, 2019 at 11:16 am #96552
Jager, I think the people are just not set on this team being a contender with the addition of one good player and a guy who may be no better than what we have. Hence why some say selling is the way to go, and others are thinking we’d be better off betting on what we have. Matt Carpenter has averaged 4.1 fWAR per year as a full time player. Goldy has averaged 5.1. For all it would cost to acquire Merrifield, he’s only had one season over 3 fWAR. He’s also likely to decline soon.
Is it worth the cost to upgrade? Maybe if the Cards were 15 games over .500 and in a heated pennant race. Right now, neither of those is really the case and we all know it.
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