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No, 25, what I’m saying is that there’s a big gap between the guys you like (Bader, O’Neill and Thomas), and other outfielders in the system who have a reasonably high ceiling. Guys like Torres and Fletcher.
So, since we’re deep in pitching let’s plug that gap with a trade. Although I thought Marco was a pretty good pitcher, I was happy with the trade that brought O’Neill here. Really liked his ceiling. Let’s go find another one or two like him who are within a year of being ready. Or are ready now. And can fit within the budget. Find a team with a good high level outfield prospect and trade a pitcher or two not named Liberatore or Thompson for him. That’s all.Bc, I don’t think we are as deep in pitching as you think we are. Here’s the 2022 rotation of guys we are certain of who have big league experience:
Flaherty
Mikolas hoping to bounce back in 2021
Hudson coming off Tommy JohnWaino is a free agent, Kim is a free agent, Cmart may be gone. The pitching depth in the minors is exciting, but they need it badly, IMO. We need the Oviedos or Rondons to develop into usable starting pitchers cause the 2021 free agent class is not heavy on young starting pitching. I’m 100% certain this is why the Cards traded for Liberatore; to fill a rotation spot in 2022.
2021-22 free agent pitchers:
Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Bundy, Lance McCullers Jr., Johnny Cueto (club option), Carlos Martínez (club option)
Not many young arms you can slot into the rotation long term there. The older guys are likely to be very pricey. We need our pitching depth more than you think.
You consider it plugging the system, 25. I consider it hedging our bets since O’Neill, Bader, Thomas, and Williams haven’t really come into their own. At least yet. If none (or only one) of the above 4 rise to the occasion, we have nothing coming up in the next several years who’s anywhere close to being the answer. I hesitate to revisit this, because you didn’t care for the logic before, but maybe our best hope is in eventually converting Montero or Gorman to an outfielder.
I do consider it plugging the system. I also don’t think that there is such a great need that you’d move an elite infield prospect to the outfield.
Carlson seems set to be a fixture in RF for the next 5-6 years. Bader can be your backup CF at worst or starter if your LF and RF are good hitters. So the two question marks are LF and a primary CFer.
If O’Neill balances his bat out this year, that’s a starting quality player. I don’t think Thomas is the answer, but he could be a good 4th OFer. There seems to be other answers than trading our critically necessary pitching for OF help now. The Cards could easily ride out 2021 with an OF that has a floor of around 5-6 WAR (that’s just below to average) and a ceiling of around 10 WAR (4 from O’Neill, 4 from Carlson and 2 from Bader/Fowler). They could then add a top OF free agent (Conforto if he’s on the market). They could add an infielder who allows someone like Edman to move to the OF. They could have a pitching prospect or two emerge to make that trade for a good OFer or OF prospect possible.
I just don’t see any of those as realistic for now. At best I could see them adding a mid tier FA OFer like Pederson or Rosario who will provide a platoon bat/DH for a year or two.
The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2021 reaches no. 14 with Malcom Nuñez, one of the organization’s top third base prospects, a soon-to-be 20-year old who should be ready in 2021 for his second shot at Class-A. ($) https://t.co/xhNdqeJXQu pic.twitter.com/Y9GLpQhjFJ
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 9, 2020
25 – A question for you. If Gorman is the real deal at 3B, and locks down the position at the major league level for 4-6 years. But Montero, Nunez, and Walker are also the real deal and prove to have above average bats, what do you do with them? Keep them at AAA? Trade them? Why aren’t you open to the option of moving them to a different position (especially OF) like the Cards did with Piscotty?
BC-Chances are good that two of those three won’t make a major big league impact (hard to say which). But if they do, that’s not a bad problem to have. My solution would be to move one of them to 1st base to take over when Goldy moves on and another to DH. While I wouldn’t be opposed to someone who has some foot speed playing some LF, I wouldn’t send one of them down the defensive spectrum until they absolutely had to.
So I guess if I had to peg it:
3B-Gorman
1B-Walker
3B/LF Montero
DH-NunezVery good thought, 25.
I know it’s said that you can never have enough pitching, but I look at the following list of starters and potential starters –
Flaherty
Kim
Mikolas
Hudson
Gomber
Ponce
Gant
Cabrera
Helsley
Oviedo
Reyes
Rondon
Woodford
Liberatore
Thompson
Locey
Pallante
Ralston
Roberts
WinnAnd then I see that we came in last (yes, LAST, as in 30th out of 30 teams) in MLB in doubles, home runs, and total bases (I know it’s a broken record) and feel we need to even things out a bit between offense and defense.
That’s a list of promising arms, but if I had to group them myself I’d go with:
Front of Rotation Starter: Flaherty, Liberatore, maybe Hudson, Reyes*
Back of Rotation Starter: Mikolas, Kim, Gomber, Oviedo, Rondon, Thompson, Pallante
Reliever: Ponce, Gant, Cabrera, Helsley, Reyes*, Locey, Ralston
Low chance of MLB contribution: Woodford, Roberts
Shortstop: Winn
*-If he’s not starting in 2021 he will remain in the pen for sure.
Could we really afford to lose one from each of the first two groups and field a top shelf rotation for a 2022/2023 run? I’m skeptical. Meanwhile, we can easily find some outfield help.
If Carlson can hold down one corner as a plus player (4 WAR or more), you can have O’Neill and Bader as some combo in CF (3 WAR), then you can look to upgrade via free agency like Conforto next year, Pederson, Rosario or look to trade for an arb eligible or controlled player like Haniger, Nimmo or Kepler. It’s not that difficult. Adding a middling “known” to thwart a potentially very good “unknown” is short sighted at best.
The discussion of pitchers could be a good one.
For instance, in 2018 Mikolas was 18-4 with an ERA of 2.83.
That’s a long way from a back of the rotation starter. Can he return to anywhere near that? Neither you or I know.Kim? He had a 1.62 ERA for the Cardinals in 2020. Again, I don’t think you can call that a back of the rotation performance. He’s signed through next season, and could be extended several years if necessary.
Ponce, Cabrera, Gant, and Helsley are probably fully capable of being back of the rotation starters.
That’s just to start the discussion. Maybe we need a dedicated thread for this? If you think so, would you start it 25? I have to jump into a meeting.
The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2021 reaches no. 14 with a high-potential power-hitter. Jhon Torres finished 2019 on a high note, but the OFer is a long way from the top and needs to pick up his pace to reach St. Louis. ($) https://t.co/lwXcEPzLcu pic.twitter.com/Q08EID3627
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 11, 2020
I had Torres ranked in my personal Top 10. I think his upside is tremendous. As Brian alluded to it was kind of shocking that he wasn’t included in the Springfield Summer Camp.
Hopefully he tears through A ball this year and gets a 40 man spot before next winter’s Rule 5 Draft. I know that prospects sometimes flame out but I would really like to see this guy be the starting RF in St. Louis in 2024.
Things may look a little gloomy right now but the future could potentially be very bright for this organization. In a few years we could have Gorman, DeJong, Edman, Goldy, Herrera, Carlson, and Torres in the starting lineup. Throw in guys like Montero, Nunez, Fletcher, Winn, and Walker and that could be explosive. A rotation of Flaherty, Liberatore, Thompson, Reyes, Oviedo, and Hince. Some of them won’t make it and some may be traded for bigger fish but I like the future once we get past our bad contract year of 2021.
The Torres omission from the 60 man was a surprise. I tend to fall a little more toward Brian’s caution that the team may think less of him. I suppose it’s possible that they wanted to hide him. Perhaps there were COVID or travel issues. We may never find out.
Still, he has potential. We have a number of potential stars among our prospects on the position side, which is nice as that hasn’t been the case for a while. Gscottar mentioned a bunch of them. If we can get a couple starting or platoon players, a couple 3-4 WAR guys and one true star from that group, this team will make the World Series in the next 3-4 years.
I can easily see the disparity between Brian and Matt. Matt= strong scouting reports and numbers especially power and arm. Brian= the status of Torres within the organization thus the “high” risk factor. Brian’s #16 seems more appropriate right now. Community= #12…. a good ranking between #9 and #16, right?
At no. 12 in The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2021 is the #stlcards' top hitting prospect from the 2019 draft, a prep outfielder who was challenged almost from the start. Is Trejyn Fletcher now ready for Class-A? ($) https://t.co/5VoBnxznrs pic.twitter.com/5GOVt8Ozgb
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 12, 2020
I was waiting to see what Matt thought of Tre. The huge K rate is a concern, but coming from Maine and classifying a year early makes his early scuffles not as surprising. The Cards took a gamble on drafting him, but I’d read elsewhere that if he had stayed in his draft class, there’s a chance he may have been a top 5 pick. Hopefully he made some strides in the instructional camp and at Springfield. If this gamble pays off (and eventually some do), he could be a an above average starting CFer with plus power and 20+ steals. Like a George Springer type, if you will.
I have really enjoyed reading these rankings by Brian and Matt, each with their own formula. Matt goes with tools, scouting, and video watching while Brian also uses those criteria and adds the factors of age, runway, options remaining, roster status, etc….
I don’t know if there is a right way or wrong way but I enjoy getting both sides of the story. I think tools are very important but then again the tools and potential aren’t helpful if your time in the organization is about up.
Thank you for the kind words. Even after 15 years of rankings, we can still always do things better. I am obviously biased, but I am very happy with how the evaluations by Matt and I complement each other. I also suspect it is a more organized, readable and consumable format for you all.
The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2021 continues with a high school-drafted pitcher who has the right raw material but needs to add strength to realize his potential as a big-league starter one day. Tink Hence is our no. 11. ($) https://t.co/A0gUITB2RQ pic.twitter.com/NdDwUaMfpi
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 14, 2020
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