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Great work on that article Brian. Do you have enough info for at least a guess about how Quezada might fare with that rating scheme?
25 – Thanks for the revised top prospect list. Since I’m concerned about our OF right now, of Carlson, Bader, O’Neill, Williams, and Thomas, I decided to see if some of those outfield prospects on your list had above average performances in 2019. So we could maybe be excited about several coming on strong. And soon. Here were the stats at the highest level they attained in 2019.
#11. Fletcher (JC) – .228/.271/.325/.596
#13. Torres (Peo.) – .167/.240/.212/.452
#26. Burleson – yet to play a professional game
#29. Romeri (GCL) – .246/.346/.464/.809
#36. Toerner (Spr.) – .211/.338/.367/.705
#41. Jones IV – yet to play a professional game
#51. Nootbaar (Spr.) – .269/.373/.312/.685
#53. Moquete (DSL) – hasn’t played in U.S. yetNothing too exciting. We’re a bit light to say the least right now in the OF – all the way up and down the system. Now, if we convert Gorman and Walker to the OF, that may be something to get excited about.
Gorman fits the corner OF mold more than 2B. Edman will have to work his butt off to hold down 2B. Remember
Gorman is still no guarantee for MLB play but if he measures up either 2B or OF will probably depend on the team’s need. If he hits he plays, period. His defense becomes secondary.An interesting question might be –
would Gorman, with his natural skills, be more of a defensive liability? – in LF or at 2B. Where do you normally find a MLB team’s worst defensive player?Here’s a good article from VEB where some folks in the know gave their thoughts on Gorman at 2B. Those who think of 2B as the place where you need a Kolten Wong type are probably living too far in the past. Especially with great defense almost everywhere else the next few years, there’s no reason to force Gorman to the OF yet. In fact, they generally think he could be passable to average at 2B.
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2021/2/20/22292009/nolan-gorman-and-second-base
Gorman may be passable at 2B. But Edman is the incumbent, and if he performs well, Gorman probably isn’t going to supplant him there.
Edman – under control through 2025
Goldy – signed through 2024
Dejong – signed through 2023
RA – signed through 2027That’s probably your IF for the next 3 years at least.
Gorman at 2B is only a backup if Edman fails. And I don’t think that’s going to happen. He’s too talented, smart, and driven.Agreed bccran about Edman. I think he was always an upgrade over Wong, even as Wong improved to a passable hitter. Edman has a better swing and approach (admitting Wong’s development there, too.)
Gorman’s path should allow for two years of development. Much will happen in the near term that makes Gorman’s path hard to predict, but I hope he is at Springfield this summer. He will put on a show.I think Rondon is going to have a very good camp. He got his first camp jitters out of the way last year. His pitches have a lot of movement with good velocity. Hope he can pass Oviedo and be the 6th starter.
Gorman may be passable at 2B. But Edman is the incumbent, and if he performs well, Gorman probably isn’t going to supplant him there.
Edman is a decent player, but he’s not a potential All Star. If Gorman proves he can play decent 2B defense and continues to improve with the bat, he will get the starts. Edman can then fill in at 2B, SS, 3B perhaps or CF to spell Bader there. There’s still plenty of value in that.
25 – We might be surprised at how good Edman can be. Here was his MLB line in 2019 – .304/.350/.500/.850.
He is now able to concentrate on playing one position. In 2019 and 2020 he played SS, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF. Zeroing in on one position may lead to being a candidate for a GG some day.
And if he settles in with that, and puts up the same kind of line he did in 2019, he will be an All Star for sure.I like Edman, but he had never OPSed .850 at any level until the rabbit ball year in Memphis prior to his callup in St Louis (.869 which was 8% better than league average). It’s very unlikely he will settle in at new career best OPS for the rest of his time in St Louis. If we get slightly above average offense and good to very good defense, that’s fine. Gorman has much more potential than that, though.
Edman at the major league level in 2019 –
92 games
349 plate appearances
17 doubles
7 triples
11 home runs
15 stolen bases (15 out of 16)
.304/.350/.500/.850He was amazing breaking into the league.
We have no idea if Gorman can hit above A ball, much less MLB. Lot of hype but not especially robust MiLB hitting stats. If his handlers are smart they will not worry him with learning a new position this spring so he can focus on adjusting to a more advanced level of play. The speed of the game and better pitching are going to be enough of a shock.
25 – The line I posted for 2019 was his major league line after being called up in 2019.
I understand that. I’m saying that hot start was a fluke in line with what happened with Grichuk, Piscotty, etc. Average bat, good glove is all you can realistically expect for Edman. We can hope for better but it’s not very likely.
You will always be ‘right’, if you are allowed to cull the data that doesn’t agree with your hypothesis.
We have no idea if Gorman can hit above A ball, much less MLB.
Well, we do have some idea. He had a SSS .857 OPS in Spring Training last year, plus excellent reviews at the Alternate Site (both from the Cards and sources of folks at places like Prospects Live). He also played pretty well at both A ball stops, 128 and 117 wRC+. At age 19, that’s a harbinger of solid things to come. It doesn’t mean he’s a gimme to perform well in St Louis, but he’s approaching Dylan Carlson in the “likely to succeed” category.
25 – if we think it was a fluke in 2019 for Edman after he was called up from AAA, maybe we should look at his performance at Memphis in 2019 before he was called up –
Plate Appearances – 218
Doubles – 12
Triples – 4
Home Runs – 7
Stolen Bases – 9 (9 out of 9)
.305/.356/.513/.869Looks like he had a pretty great year all around, doesn’t it?
305/.356/.513/.869
Looks like he had a pretty great year all around, doesn’t it?
That was 8% above league average in the rabbit ball PCL that year. I’ve acknowledged that was the only year he’s come even close to having the .850 OPS he had at the big league level. I would love for Tommy to be an .850 OPS player, but it’s not likely. You are welcome to hope on it though.
Edman did have 1 great year out of the last 4. The jury is still out on him.
The thing about Edman is that 2019 is probably his ceiling. For Gorman, his ceiling is much higher. As long as Gorman can play MLB average defense at 2B, he is worth a lot more than Edman. Maybe Edman CAN push Gorman to the OF but that is still to be determined. Just like Gorman’s ability to play 2B is still to be determined.
stlcard25, we have no idea if Gorman or Carlson can hit in MLB. Carlson can shed some light on the issue this year. Gorman can show us if he can hit AAA pitching this year, then we will know if his bat is worth finding a defensive position for him. As of now, it really doesn’t matter if he can play 2B.
Here’s Edman’s combined performance in 2019 between AAA and MLB –
Plate Appearances – 567
Doubles – 29
Triples – 11
Home runs – 18
Stolen bases – 24
.304/.352/.505/.858The year before, in 2018, he hit .301 with an OBP of
.354 in 126 games between Springfield and Memphis. 574 plate appearances. Stole 30 bases. Seems like he’s been pretty good the last two full seasons. He may truly be the answer at lead off.stlcard25, we have no idea if Gorman or Carlson can hit in MLB. Carlson can shed some light on the issue this year. Gorman can show us if he can hit AAA pitching this year, then we will know if his bat is worth finding a defensive position for him. As of now, it really doesn’t matter if he can play 2B.
I can say for sure that the Cardinals are very interested in finding a position for his bat to slot in at, so why wouldn’t we talk about it too? If the bar is Tommy Edman with the bat, I’d say there’s an 80% or better chance that Gorman clears it. He may be so bad at 2b that it doesn’t matter and he’s a corner OF/DH. But basically everyone sees Gorman as having a very good shot to make it to MLB (hit AAA pitching, as you say. More on this later).
Here’s the bit from Prospects Live (Matt, who also took part with Brian in our rankings) regarding Gorman at the Alternate site:
Drew rave reviews at the alternate site and could set himself up to make his big league debut in 2021.
This wasn’t just from Mo, as Matt indicated that the info he got from someone on Liberatore was key in him downgrading Libby after the fact in his own rankings. So it was scouting based from people who had access in some way. Gorman faced these guys on an at least part time basis in Springfield (when they weren’t in St Louis):
Crismatt, Rondon, Seijas, Oviedo, Liberatore, Thompson, Elledge, Ramirez, Kaminsky, Fernandez, Whitley, Woodford, Sanchez
That’s AAA quality (or better) pitching and he got to experience it. Piece together “rave reviews” with that and I’ll rest my case. We will see how he fares in games this year but there’s a good shot he’s ready by the beginning of 2022.
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