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Hope you are right. I will wait to get excited about Gorman, having learned my lesson over and over the last 10 or so years when it comes to Cardinals 3B prospects. I do wish these two guys success.
cranny I agree about Edmon, at least as far as being better than bottom of lineup, if not leadoff. It makes more sense to me to work Gorman up at corner outfield.
Forsch says “Edman did have one great year out of the last 4.” You have to be kidding. It’s called development, Forsch.
He was drafted in 2016 out of Stanford and spent the summer at State College, where in 66 games he had an .827 OPS. That was a higher OPS than he had any of his 3 seasons at Stanford. In 2017, the Cards really pushed and challenged him. He had 38 games at Peoria, 18 games at Palm Beach, and 63 games in Springfield. I’ve denoted how he did in 2018 and 2019, batting over .300 both years. He’s developed beautifully, and a pleasure to have on the big club. Putting him down simply doesn’t work. That dog won’t hunt.bc, if you notice, I said 1 GREAT year. 2017 – .702 OPS. 2018 – .756 OPS. 2020 – .685. Those are hardly great years. One may be good but none of those 3 are great. Gorman could be great with the bat.
You might factor in living and playing in 3 different cities over 5 months – different teammates, different managers and coaches, etc. And at each new stop different and better pitchers. That just might have affected his numbers in 2017.
Maybe Edman can be great too, Forsch. You just never know.bb asked:
Do you have enough info for at least a guess about how Quezada might fare with that rating scheme?
Matt grades him a 35.
One factor in common with Carlson, Edman, and Gorman. They all bat left handed against right handed pitching (the majority of major league pitchers). And Carlson and Edman bat right handed against left handed pitching. In a general sense, the three of them would have an advantage over guys like Bader, O’Neill, and Thomas.
This has to be the most exciting development in camp so far, right? Delvin Perez 109 mph exit velocity today. There was another that was 105 a few days ago. This is a “measurable increase in skill/ability” as some would say.
Of course there are more skills that go into success than just max exit velo, but this is a very good sign. Other SS with max exit velocity of 109 last year include: Tim Anderson, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Willy Adames, Jorge Polanco, Dansby Swanson, and Jean Segura.
How fast and how high can he climb the in-season prospect rankings?
Moments ago …
109 mph off the bat.
270 feet around the bases.Delvin Perez triples in Grapefruit League game — continuing on the main field the revelation he's been on the back field.https://t.co/A1n2WHD1ce @stltoday #stlcards #MLB #Cardinals
— Derrick S. Goold (@dgoold) March 8, 2021
Perez has obvious talents on the defensive end to be a very good shortstop. If the physical gains are for real and he can begin to impact the ball with authority, the sky is the limit. I’d be cautious with the expectations, but if he can put up a solid year between Peoria and Springfield at age 22, the Cards would probably add him to the 40 man after the year.
Perez is a good example of how the new slimmed down minor leagues will affect player development. He is 22 but its his 6th pro season. After GCL he spent two full seasons in short season, at levels that no longer exist, before making it to the Midwest League in his 4th pro year. How does a Perez get from there to hear now?
S-25…. good call. Here’s how I see Perez right now. Most if not everyone soured on him early on in his pro career because of his antics and lack of offense. But he does have a few things going his way, he is a #1 pick, the organization sorely needs middle infield bodies and he’ll get every opportunity to show some more maturity.
His very high expectations had bottomed out after the organization sent him home, and there was reason to believe that that #1 pick was a complete bust. He was still very young and some of his potential seemingly or certainly had fizzled out. So here he was yesterday driving the ball for a bases clearing triple. A stroke of luck? a fluke? perhaps but to the naked eye we saw his speed and his ability to show some off-the-bat velocity.
Just being in an MLB camp has to help with him in gaining some more growing up and shows that the organization still sees him as a diamond in the rough. His potential is on the rise again and some more progress at the A-level will put him line to gain back the faith in him that had evaporated nearly every drop of it.
At one point Brian had commented if my memory serves me (and correct me if I’m wrong) something like Delvin will never make it. I took that as forget about Perez, and at the time I did. Now only the very faithful in his corner might be seeing what they believed he had in him all along. It was just ONE hit yesterday but it was impressive enough to put Perez back on nearly everyone’s radar screen.
When Perez finished up 2019 with a strong 1/3 of a season, he came back on my radar. He was still just a blip but I took notice. I am hoping he continues to progress. He would be very valuable if he can be a major league SS. Unfortunately, if he has a good year this year, the Cardinals will not give the free agent shortstops a glance. While DeJong is good, if he has another year like the last 2 with the bat, I wouldn’t mind upgrading although I’m not sure the Cardinals have the payroll room.
I’m not sure the Cardinals have the payroll room.
Why wouldn’t they? They’ve got about $85M committed for next year and even with generous raises for all the arb guys would be $20M or so less than this year’s payroll, which is significantly down from last year by $35M or so.
I have always been high on Perez. I hope his ascension continues. It seems like he is now fully engaged in making the necessary commitments. His runway may be short but if he continues to progress this year he could land a 40 man spot.
We have Flaherty, Hudson, Gant, Hicks, Reyes, Gallegos, Webb, Bader and O’Neill as arbitration guys. Those guys alone will earn close to $12 million this year. Flaherty will get a pretty good raise with a good year. According to Baseball Reference, they estimate $45 million to arbitration eligible players, although I think that is way too high. Kim is also unaccounted for in these figures.
The problem is after 2022, we will have almost the entire roster in arbitration in ’22 and some key pieces ready for free agency after ’23 (Flaherty, Hicks, Reyes, Bader). The contract to any of the free agent shortstops will be for great money and a decent number of years. We already have Goldschmidt through ’24 and Arenado through ’27. Just not seeing how we can fit that extra contract in and still afford our internal pieces very easily.
Baseball Reference already estimates a payroll of $173 million for 2022.
Baseball Reference already estimates a payroll of $173 million for 2022.
That would be quite dramatic. While the Cards will add Arenado’s $35M next year they will have around $78M coming off the books with Fowler, Carp, Miller, CMart, Yadi, Waino, and Kim. Even if you have $25M in arbitration salaries and another $5M in league minimum salaries their payroll would be $114M. That is a long way from $170.
My guess is that $173M includes inflated arb salaries plus the picking up of both Carp and Cmart’s options. While I could squint and see Carlos getting his option picked up if he’s very good this year, there’s just no way for Carp.
Looking at it another way, if the guys who earned $12M in arb this year are good enough to bump to $45M next year, a lot of our worries about needing to sign someone else will be solved.
I looked up the Baseball Reference numbers. Yes, they are assuming all options are picked up, $46M in arbitration salaries, and $6m in league minimum salaries.
I would be willing to bet my mortgage that doesn’t happen.
You are correct. I forgot that included the options. I know Carp won’t be picked up. I doubt CMart will be either unless he has a very good year. So 2022 shouldn’t be a problem. However, after that things could be tricky to fit all the pieces with a top shortstop addition after this year. Plus, we may potentially need to address the OF.
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