TCN’s 2021 Top 50 Prospect List Countdown

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  • #148888
    Avatarbccran
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    The problem is exemplified by Williams being rated the #18 prospect. In most top tier organizations he wouldn’t be rated that high. Plus the outfielders that are going to be rated above him in this TCN countdown are years away.

    #148894
    Avatarforsch31
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    bccran, please name who is rated #18 on some top tier organizations that you would rate better. I would like to read up on them. Or, just name who you think are the top tier organizations that I could compare him to.

    #148897
    Avatarbccran
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    Tampa –
    Kevin Padlo – .995 OPS in AAA, .888 in AA in 2019

    Dodgers –
    Zach McKinstry – 1.174 in AAA, .807 in AA in 2019

    Twins –
    Travis Blankenhorn – 18 HRs, 51 RBI in 93 games at AA in 2019

    #148898
    Avatarforsch31
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    Cards-
    Justin Williams-1.045 OPS in AAA in 2019

    #148899
    Avatarforsch31
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    Blankenhorn had a .786 OPS in AA in 2019 which was his highest level. He had almost 4 times the number of ABs in AA as Williams did in AAA in 2019. If you prorate Williams to the same number of ABs as Blankenhorn, he would have had 26 HRs and 99 RBI. If you prorate Williams’ whole 2019 season to 388 ABs, he would have had 19 HRs and 70 RBI.

    Overall Scouting/Grading Reports per MLB.com:
    Williams-45
    Padlo-45
    McKinstry-45
    Blankenhorn-45

    I guess I am not seeing your point. They all look pretty even to me. And as you have stated on numerous occasions, scouts know better than you or me.

    #148901
    AvatarUncleDenny
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    Williams won’t be in the organization long and shouldn’t be rated here.

    #148903
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I get the sentiment, UncleD, but we don’t make judgment calls to exclude eligible players, trying to anticipate what may happen in the future – because it also may not.

    Some folks prefer to do their rankings at the last minute to try to avoid this kind of thing, but my take has always been that rankings are better when they are organic, rather than fixed for a year. An example is our in-season monthly ranking updates.

    If/when Williams leaves the organization or graduates, he will also leave the rankings and another will be added.

    #148904
    Avatarforsch31
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    UncleDenny, I respect your baseball knowledge a lot. However, being ranked #17 is about right for him. He may not be in the organization long but as a 25 year old who hasn’t had but a cup of coffee in the majors, he should be ranked based on his potential. He would have to show something this spring to earn a spot but he has the ability.

    #148905
    Avatarbccran
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    Williams ahead of guys like Sosa, Baker,
    Pallante, Locey, etc? Don’t think so.

    #148906
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I’m not really high on Williams. I could see how the tools could come together and become a useful outfielder, but I’m not sure he will get the chance here. Perhaps if the Cards can get him on the swing path to hit more HRs, he could flourish. Still, he’s behind a lot of guys on the OF PT chart.

    #148909
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    As an important reminder, those of you who have taken the time to participate in the community voting going on right now on this very board, have already placed Williams at no. 23. Those who disagree should make your votes count and let them do your talking… 😉

    #148917
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    I used the name Mozeliak because we have a G.M. that is rarely heard from. Mo’s reputation among fans is waning not rising. If pointing that out makes one uncomfortable just skip over my comments regarding the FO.

    Many of the posters here have soapbox issues… this is one of mine… and its the most crucial.

    #148921
    Avatarbccran
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    In big moves, he brought in Heyward,
    Fowler, Ozuna, and Goldschmidt. Plus Liberatore (although he gave up the wrong outfielder). And don’t forget Kim, Mikolas, and Gallegos. Maybe give Mo just a little credit, 14?

    #148925
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Moving ahead with our prospect rankings…

    #148939
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    OK bcc…. I’ll keep your comment in mind in the future.

    #148989
    Avatarbccran
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    Here are the slash lines of the top outfield prospects that we have coming. The lines are from the highest level achieved in 2019. These guys are on our top 50 list.

    Torres – .167/.240/.212/.452 Peoria
    Fletcher – .228/.271/.325/.596 Johnson City
    Toerner – .211/.338/.367/.705 Springfield
    Capel – .232/.283/.352/.635 Springfield
    Yepez – .208/.257/.288/.545 Palm Beach

    I know, I know, BW says stats don’t mean much. But still, folks……….

    #148990
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

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    I wonder how much time it takes you to go through and find the most negative possible stats for each player to portray your purposely warped views, bccran. You could have just as easily said:

    -19 year old Jhon Torres had a .918 OPS at Johnson City (where he actually spent most of his time)
    -Rookie Trejyn Fletcher was challenged at Johnson City after a solid cup of Joe in the GCL (149 wRC+). He looked like a cold weather talented rookie would with lots of strikeouts, some power, steals, etc
    -Justin Toerner made it to Springfield in his first full season, putting up a respectable 103 wRC+ after a hot first half at Palm Beach (142 wRC+)
    -You lied about Capel. His highest level was Memphis where he put up a line of .433/.452/.800/1.252. This didn’t fit your narrative though.
    -Juan Yepez advanced two levels in 2019, spending most of his time at Peoria (147 wRC+) and Palm Beach (136) before finishing at Springfield.

    #148999
    Avatarbccran
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    Warped, 25? And I lied? Wow, that’s pretty harsh. I said it was the highest level they played, right? That’s exactly what it was.

    But Capel? I was was indeed wrong about Capel, though. I missed those 8 games at AAA that he put up those great numbers. You did point out it was just 8 games, didn’t you? Kinda like when you posted Sosa’s poor “career” MLB numbers to fit your agenda when he had a grand total of 13 MLB PAs. When a poster called you out on that one (I think it was BW), you went into hiding.

    #149003
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

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    Warped, 25? And I lied? Wow, that’s pretty harsh. I said it was the highest level they played, right? That’s exactly what it was.

    100% warped. Purposefully deceptive. Call it what you will, it’s your way to of making our players look as bad as possible, for some reason. In every case save for Fletcher, you picked the smallest sample place they played and pretended like it meant they were some bum destined for nowhere.

    Kinda like when you posted Sosa’s poor “career” MLB numbers to fit your agenda when he had a grand total of 13 MLB PAs. When a poster called you out on that one (I think it was BW), you went into hiding.

    What agenda would that be? Pointing out the absurdity of using small samples to make definitive judgments?

    #149009
    Avatarbccran
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    Nothing like telling another poster they have warped views, and lie. That’s the old spirit, 25.

    And yes, you did use 13 plate appearances at MLB to help make your point that Sosa wasn’t a particularly viable prospect. Brian did call you out on that.

    #149012
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    And yes, you did use 13 plate appearances at MLB to help make your point that Sosa wasn’t a particularly viable prospect. Brian did call you out on that.

    Since I voted for him one spot behind you in the community voting, it seems like that’s an odd point to make. It’s clear that you missed the satire in that post, but it’s ok. You can read my comments on Sosa in the voting thread to see what I think of him.

    #149014
    Avatarbccran
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    How about the OPS numbers at each level, along with their plate appearances. Will that be better, 25? Less “warped”?
    By the way, in the below if I “lie”, it’s only because I mistyped something.

    Yepez (6’1′, 200 lbs, 22 years old)-

    Rookie – .803 (238 PAs)
    A – .762 (787 PAs)
    A+ – .620 (357 PAs)
    AA – .673 (59 PAs)

    Fletcher (6′ 2″, 200 lbs., 19 year old) –

    GCL – .898 (42 PAs)
    Rookie (JC) – .596 (133 PAs)

    Torres (6′ 199 lbs., 20 years old) –

    FRk – .770 (226 PAs)
    Rookie – .927 (319 PAs)
    A – .452 (75 PAs)

    Toerner (5′ 10″, 165 lbs., 24 years old) –

    A minus – .741 (202 PAs)
    A – 1.200 (25 PAs)
    A+ – .796 (281 PAs)
    AA – .706 (199 PAs)

    Capel (6′ 1″, 185 lbs., 23 years old) –

    Rookie – .560 (153 PAs)
    A – .795 (492 PAs)
    A+ – .716 (509 PAs)
    AA – .635 368 PAs)
    AAA – 1.252 (31 PAs)

    In my humble opinion, only Fletcher and Torres make the needle jump a little. At the other end of the spectrum – if you want to make Justin Toerner, a small, slightly built 24 year old with a .706 OPS at the AA level, a valid prospect, have at it.

    #149016
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    In my humble opinion, only Fletcher and Torres make the needle jump a little. At the other end of the spectrum – if you want to make Justin Toerner, a small, slightly built 24 year old with a .706 OPS at the AA level, a valid prospect, have at it.

    I agree with you on these points, although I’m higher on Toerner than you are and think he may surprise. It’s fair to note that 2019 was Toerner’s age 22 season and that he looks a bit bigger than 165 lbs. At his best I could see a starting quality CFer. That’s a lot of projection though.

    Torres and Fletcher are high upside bets that are very far away. They have big potential but at least Torres is going to have to show it soon. Fletcher spent the summer at Springfield, which hopefully will help his development.

    The others are probably AAA filler, and that’s ok. The nice thing for the Cards now is that they have Carlson, who looks to be at least a solid starting corner OFer. They have O’Neill, Bader and Thomas, who have the capability to provide passable play as a base with more possible in O’Neills case. They also have money coming off the books after this year to go sign an OFer who can make an impact, or make a trade if they want to.

    #149021
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    This is from a story in VEB yesterday.

    Then there are the guys who… maybe show enough to be ready fairly quickly? Lars Nootbar rose quickly to AA and could be targeted for a mid-season call-up if the stars aligned for him and he performed well. Justin Toerner is the same story. Are they likely to be ready in 2021? I wouldn’t say so. But you just add the pure amount of bodies the Cardinals can throw at this potential problem and well, I think they can craft three decent starters out of this group, or better.

    There was basically a blackout of MiLB prospects in 2020 so going back to the peripheral players takes some time. I rarely see NootBaar’s name included in top-50 but he did finish at #52 in last year’s Community list. Irving Lopez’ name also came up in the article…. a bit more forgotten at #62 on the same list.

    I always consider the lists of professional selections, ala Brian and Matt right here who offer in-depth analyses which have been very helpful and also some other credible sources. Plus some Community voters because they offer some additional insightful information. Keep it up guys.

    So with that in mind here is the final 2020 Community results: as refreshers

    #1. DYLAN CARLSON
    #2. NOLAN GORMAN
    #3. ANDREW KNIZNER
    #4. RANDY AROZARENA
    #5. ELEHURIS MONTERO
    #6. IVAN HERRERA
    #7. ZACK THOMPSON
    #8. JAKE WOODFORD
    #9. ANGEL RONDON
    #10. MALCOLM NUNEZ
    #11. JHON TORRES
    #12. JUNIOR FERNANDEZ
    #13. GENESIS CABRERA
    #14. JUSTIN WILLIAMS
    #15. JOHAN OVIEDO
    #16. ADOLIS GARCIA
    #17. EDMUNDO SOSA
    #18. TREJYN FLETCHER
    #19. LUKEN BAKER
    #20. KODI WHITLEY
    #21. JULIO RODRIGUEZ
    #22. DELVIN PEREZ
    #23. TONY LOCEY
    #24. ALVARO SEIJAS
    #25. MATEO GIL
    #26. RAMON URIAS
    #27. ANDRE PALLANTE
    #28. JACK RALSTON
    #29. GRIFFIN ROBERTS
    #30. ALEX FAGALDE
    #31. JUAN YEPEZ
    #32. JUSTIN TOERNER
    #33. EVAN MENDOZA
    #34. RANGEL RAVELO
    #35. SETH ELLEDGE
    #36. TOMMY PARSONS
    #37. EDGAR ESCOBAR
    #38. BRENDAN DONOVAN
    #39. STEVEN GINGERY
    #40. CONNOR CAPEL
    #41. EVAN KRUCZYNSKI
    #42. PEDRO PAGES
    #43. YARIEL GONZALEZ
    #44. MAX SCHROCK
    #45. LUDWIN JIMENEZ
    #46. KRAMER ROBERTSON
    #47. BRADY WHALEN
    #48. JOHN NOGOWSKI
    #49. FRANCISCO JUSTO
    #50. JONATAN MACHADO
    #51. PATRICK ROMERI
    #52. LARS NOOTBAAR
    #53. LEANDRO CEDENO
    #54. DIOWILL BURGOS
    #55. MICHAEL YASENKA
    #56. LOGAN GRAGG
    #57. CHANDLER REDMOND
    #58. RAMON MENDOZA
    #59. BRYAN DOBZANSKI
    #60. HECTOR SOTO
    #61. ANGEL CUENCA
    #62. IRVING LOPEZ
    #63. DARLIN MOQUETE
    #64. ANTHONY SHEW
    #65. TERRY FULLER
    #66. CARLOS SOTO
    #67. AUSTIN WARNER
    #68. CARLOS SOLER
    #69. SCOTT HURST
    #70. ROEL RAMIREZ
    #71. NICK DUNN
    #72. DIEGO CORDERO
    #73. CONNOR THOMAS
    #74. MICHAEL BAIRD
    #75. NATHANAEL HEREDIA

    The Cardinal Nation Top 50 Prospects – 2020

    50. Bryan Dobzanski (free)
    49. Brady Whalen
    48. Patrick Romeri
    47. Ludwin Jimenez
    46. Kramer Robertson
    45. Max Schrock (free)
    44. Francisco Justo
    43. Pedro Pages
    42. John Nogowski
    41. Evan Kruczynski
    40. Juan Yepez (free)
    39. Brendan Donovan
    38. Tommy Parsons
    37. Conner Capel
    36. Edgar Escobar
    35. Steven Gingery (free)
    34. Rangel Ravelo
    33. Delvin Perez
    32. Evan Mendoza
    31. Seth Elledge
    30. Justin Toerner (free)
    29. Alex FaGalde
    28. Jack Ralston
    27. Andre Pallante
    26. Ramon Urias
    25. Mateo Gil (free)
    24. Tony Locey
    23. Griffin Roberts
    22. Alvaro Seijas
    21. Julio Rodriguez
    20. Kodi Whitley (free)
    19. Luken Baker
    18. Adolis Garcia (traded)
    17. Edmundo Sosa
    16. Trejyn Fletcher
    15. Justin Williams (free)
    14. Johan Oviedo
    13. Malcom Nuñez
    12. Jhon Torres
    11. Genesis Cabrera
    10. Junior Fernandez (free)
    9. Angel Rondon
    8. Jake Woodford
    7. Randy Arozarena (traded)
    7. Zack Thompson
    6. Ivan Herrera (free)
    5. Andrew Knizner
    4. Elehuris Montero
    3. Matthew Liberatore (free)
    2. Nolan Gorman
    1. Dylan Carlson (free)

    I hope that they will be helpful. Additionally bccran is providing an up-to-date list of this year’s voting on page 1 of this topic.

    #149022
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    As a reminder, the 2020 community list and voting thread remains pinned to the top of this board for easy reference.

    All of the site’s top prospect lists (annual and monthly in-season rankings) back to 2006 can be accessed from the left menu bar via “PROSPECT RANKINGS”.

    FWIW, the above post might be more valuable on the 2021 Community voting thread than here…

    While 2020 was a challenging and truncated year, there were still opportunities for the best prospects. It started with January instructional camp (where I believe I was the only media member in attendance), non-roster invitations to MLB camp, and the alternate camp, where scouts had full access to video that we did not. The simple fact of which players were invited to these camps and which were not are strong indicators.

    On the specific examples of Toerner and Nootbaar, they are backed up behind Capel and a slew of outfielders already on the 40-man roster. Neither has more than two months in Double-A, no Triple-A experience and did not play in 2020. For them to reach St. Louis in 2021 would require an avalanche of injuries, releases or trades. Very low odds, IMO, but no, not impossible.

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