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flood21, thank you for the assist. You are correct.
The exclusions for this year are listed in the overview article for the Top 50 countdown.
(Note: Andrew Knizner, Jake Woodford and Rangel Ravelo are considered graduated. We decided to be consistent with the national prospect raters.)
50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2021
At no. 3 in TCN’s Top 50 prospects for 2021 is the #stlcards' top pitching prospect – or is he? How high is Matthew Liberatore’s ceiling and what does he need to accomplish before reaching it? 2500 words of scouting reports, photos and video follow. ($) https://t.co/go8dXg4gTu pic.twitter.com/fdWezBLJ3F
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 24, 2020
Out of curiosity, is Matt able to get info on scouting from the alternate site, or is his scouting info based on 2019 video and scouting eyes?
There seems to be quite the difference in his view and the Cards staffer who was ebullient in his praise. The Cards have had some tremendous pitching prospects in that time, such as Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Wacha, Rosenthal, Jaime Garcia, Reyes, Weaver, and Flaherty, who I believe were all top 100 prospects.
I haven’t asked if Matt has direct access to 2020 alternate camp video or if he is talking with other organizations’ scouts who have. My guess is the latter. My approach has always been to be a bit cautious about any reports by any organization about their own players, as the positives are accentuated and the negatives are often skipped over. That is why independent assessments are so important to get a balanced view.
I have to admit that of the 50 #stlcards prospects for 2021 profiled, I enjoyed writing Nolan Gorman’s most. Along with the insightful scouting report by @mdthompFWFB, I spilled 2500 words about the power-hitting 3rd baseman, again our no. 2 prospect. ($) https://t.co/YcJNI5iBEq pic.twitter.com/2Wu0gruPty
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 25, 2020
That’s a very solid assessment of Gorman there. A Mike Moustakas type (low average, decent walks and above average power) might be the most likely resting spot for Gorman. I’m not a big fan of Moose, but he has produced well enough to be a 3 time All Star and has two 35+ HR seasons as well. That said, Gorman has the talent if he can work on his strikeouts to surpass that and be a 35 HR guy yearly with solid defense at 3B. That’s not quite Arenado, but it’s gonna put you in the yearly conversation for the All Star game and perhaps MVP votes in a career year that could push his OPS up close to .900 with 40 HRs.
Instead of Christmas dinner leftovers, feast on The Cardinal Nation's FREE report on the #stlcards repeat no. 1 prospect. How should we set reasonable expectations for switch-hitting outfielder Dylan Carlson in his first full major league season ahead? https://t.co/x28OA2VZrg pic.twitter.com/2UAvVJwP1d
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 26, 2020
Carlson has been challenged by the organization ever since he stepped on the field at Peoria in his second MiLB season. I would love to see him bat second in the order for ’21 to maybe take some pressure off of him. He is an on-base guy right now…. Matt: Power: Has improved physically. Gotten stronger and will drive the ball more consistently. Some of his homers at AutoZone Park and Hammons Field were absolute moonshots. More gap to gap though, but can get into one. 25-30 homers annually with heavy amount of doubles. Grade: 55. The power will come but for now he has that “60” rating for hitting. He will add some muscle as time goes by.
Plus it will be a big advantage with Goldschmidt behind him. We all want him to succeed ASAP.
Getting a proven cleanup hitter from the outside would really help, but Santa didn’t bring one… Do they do gifts for Kwanzaa? 😉
Overall in 2019, Carlson slashed .292/.372/.542/.914 with 26 home runs, 68 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 126 games between Double-A and Triple-A.
The above slash line and homers and steals number would be what I might think of as a “career year” for Carlson in the majors. If he accomplishes this with solid defense in a corner OF spot he would be a fringe MVP candidate. If he can accomplish this consistently, that makes him a half-full grade higher prospect, which is what the Cards could best hope for from Carlson and Gorman. If they somehow got two All Star/5-6 WAR guys from them, you’d think Mo would be more than thrilled and so would we.
Like Gorman yesterday, I’d think Carlson will settle in as an .800+ OPS, 3+ WAR corner OF…which would be a very fine outcome. Think of Ozuna prior to his injury. Some 2-3 WAR seasons with one biggie.
Opening the multi-part analysis phase of The Cardinal Nation's #stlcards Top 50 Prospect List for 2021, I compare and contrast my votes with those of @mdthompFWFB. ($) https://t.co/wt5K87YH8g pic.twitter.com/uB5YwvPRWH
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 7, 2021
Hey Brian, how did you settle ties? In some cases, you each voted someone back to back and flipped the two. Some times the guy you voted higher got the nod, and sometimes Matt’s vote did.
Next in the analysis phase of The Cardinal Nation's #stlcards Top 50 Prospect List for 2021, I detail the fastest-rising and falling prospects from year to year. ($) https://t.co/6HQn8JEEIN pic.twitter.com/bgxPzkZnEW
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 8, 2021
Breaking down the new members of The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards Top Prospect List for 2021 – from the 2020 draft, trades, free agents, internals. ($) https://t.co/DdLLuMLjgO pic.twitter.com/I9JMXPTpTH
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 9, 2021
Promotions to the majors, injury and decline in performance all contributed to a number of #stlcards prospects coming off The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 from 2020 to 2021. ($) https://t.co/CoZ24knUMF pic.twitter.com/kf2EFBjU7z
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 10, 2021
Why did the Cards let Adolis Garcia go so cheaply, after bashing 32 home runs and driving in 96 in 132 games for Memphis in 2019?
Brian, Not a big deal but ypu have Gingery listed in the “departure by position” as a righthander instead of a southpaw.
bccran asked:
Why did the Cards let Adolis Garcia go so cheaply, after bashing 32 home runs and driving in 96 in 132 games for Memphis in 2019?
Because organizations don’t base their decisions on Triple-A baseball card stats.
Garcia was behind a ton of players in the pecking order at the time of his trade. Remember, the Jmart-Arozarena trade didn’t happen til a few weeks later. It may not even have been discussed at that point.
Well, I guess no one can predict these things. Not one of us can say for sure that a prospect is going to be successful or not successful. As Brian says, organizations don’t base their decisions on “AAA baseball card stats”. Of course on the other hand, Gary LaRocque will tell you that at the AA level and above is when players need to put up the best stats they can to show they’re getting major league ready. And sometimes Mo is just flat out wrong.
Isn’t it interesting to look at the lineup of the Memphis team that won the AAA Championship in 2018.
C – Carson Kelly
1B – Luke Voit
2B – Max Schrock
SS – Wilfredo Tovar
3B – Patrick Wisdom
LF – Randy Arozarena
CF – Oscar Mercado
RF – Adolis GarciaMo admitted that he made a mistake with Arozarena, and that they are analyzing the way they value talent. Maybe, just maybe, BW, they should pay a little more attention to those “AAA baseball card statistics”. And maybe they did indeed give Garcia away for too little. We won’t know until we see how he works out in the long run.
Garcia had an OBP that barely broke .300 at its best. He had some pop in the bat and a strong arm. 5th OFer seems like the best the Cards could hope for.
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