TCN’s 2021 Top 50 Prospect List Countdown

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  • #150265
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    flood21, thank you for the assist. You are correct.

    The exclusions for this year are listed in the overview article for the Top 50 countdown.

    (Note: Andrew Knizner, Jake Woodford and Rangel Ravelo are considered graduated. We decided to be consistent with the national prospect raters.)

    50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2021

    #150310
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #150332
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Out of curiosity, is Matt able to get info on scouting from the alternate site, or is his scouting info based on 2019 video and scouting eyes?

    There seems to be quite the difference in his view and the Cards staffer who was ebullient in his praise. The Cards have had some tremendous pitching prospects in that time, such as Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Wacha, Rosenthal, Jaime Garcia, Reyes, Weaver, and Flaherty, who I believe were all top 100 prospects.

    #150340
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I haven’t asked if Matt has direct access to 2020 alternate camp video or if he is talking with other organizations’ scouts who have. My guess is the latter. My approach has always been to be a bit cautious about any reports by any organization about their own players, as the positives are accentuated and the negatives are often skipped over. That is why independent assessments are so important to get a balanced view.

    #150350
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #150367
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    That’s a very solid assessment of Gorman there. A Mike Moustakas type (low average, decent walks and above average power) might be the most likely resting spot for Gorman. I’m not a big fan of Moose, but he has produced well enough to be a 3 time All Star and has two 35+ HR seasons as well. That said, Gorman has the talent if he can work on his strikeouts to surpass that and be a 35 HR guy yearly with solid defense at 3B. That’s not quite Arenado, but it’s gonna put you in the yearly conversation for the All Star game and perhaps MVP votes in a career year that could push his OPS up close to .900 with 40 HRs.

    #150416
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #150447
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    Carlson has been challenged by the organization ever since he stepped on the field at Peoria in his second MiLB season. I would love to see him bat second in the order for ’21 to maybe take some pressure off of him. He is an on-base guy right now…. Matt: Power: Has improved physically. Gotten stronger and will drive the ball more consistently. Some of his homers at AutoZone Park and Hammons Field were absolute moonshots. More gap to gap though, but can get into one. 25-30 homers annually with heavy amount of doubles. Grade: 55. The power will come but for now he has that “60” rating for hitting. He will add some muscle as time goes by.

    Plus it will be a big advantage with Goldschmidt behind him. We all want him to succeed ASAP.

    #150448
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Getting a proven cleanup hitter from the outside would really help, but Santa didn’t bring one… Do they do gifts for Kwanzaa? 😉

    #150466
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Overall in 2019, Carlson slashed .292/.372/.542/.914 with 26 home runs, 68 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 126 games between Double-A and Triple-A.

    The above slash line and homers and steals number would be what I might think of as a “career year” for Carlson in the majors. If he accomplishes this with solid defense in a corner OF spot he would be a fringe MVP candidate. If he can accomplish this consistently, that makes him a half-full grade higher prospect, which is what the Cards could best hope for from Carlson and Gorman. If they somehow got two All Star/5-6 WAR guys from them, you’d think Mo would be more than thrilled and so would we.

    Like Gorman yesterday, I’d think Carlson will settle in as an .800+ OPS, 3+ WAR corner OF…which would be a very fine outcome. Think of Ozuna prior to his injury. Some 2-3 WAR seasons with one biggie.

    #151252
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #151254
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Hey Brian, how did you settle ties? In some cases, you each voted someone back to back and flipped the two. Some times the guy you voted higher got the nod, and sometimes Matt’s vote did.

    #151263
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Yes, as you noted, I took turns breaking ties.

    #151321
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    #151388
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    #151434
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    #151436
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Free

    Why did the Cards let Adolis Garcia go so cheaply, after bashing 32 home runs and driving in 96 in 132 games for Memphis in 2019?

    #151446
    Avatarflood21
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    Brian, Not a big deal but ypu have Gingery listed in the “departure by position” as a righthander instead of a southpaw.

    #151447
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Ha! I’ve never seen Gingery pitch! (Thanks for the correction.)

    #151448
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    bccran asked:

    Why did the Cards let Adolis Garcia go so cheaply, after bashing 32 home runs and driving in 96 in 132 games for Memphis in 2019?

    Because organizations don’t base their decisions on Triple-A baseball card stats.

    #151455
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Garcia was behind a ton of players in the pecking order at the time of his trade. Remember, the Jmart-Arozarena trade didn’t happen til a few weeks later. It may not even have been discussed at that point.

    #151461
    Avatarbccran
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    Well, I guess no one can predict these things. Not one of us can say for sure that a prospect is going to be successful or not successful. As Brian says, organizations don’t base their decisions on “AAA baseball card stats”. Of course on the other hand, Gary LaRocque will tell you that at the AA level and above is when players need to put up the best stats they can to show they’re getting major league ready. And sometimes Mo is just flat out wrong.

    Isn’t it interesting to look at the lineup of the Memphis team that won the AAA Championship in 2018.

    C – Carson Kelly
    1B – Luke Voit
    2B – Max Schrock
    SS – Wilfredo Tovar
    3B – Patrick Wisdom
    LF – Randy Arozarena
    CF – Oscar Mercado
    RF – Adolis Garcia

    Mo admitted that he made a mistake with Arozarena, and that they are analyzing the way they value talent. Maybe, just maybe, BW, they should pay a little more attention to those “AAA baseball card statistics”. And maybe they did indeed give Garcia away for too little. We won’t know until we see how he works out in the long run.

    #151475
    Avatarforsch31
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    Free

    bc, what is your opinion of Adolis Garcia?

    #151477
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

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    Garcia had an OBP that barely broke .300 at its best. He had some pop in the bat and a strong arm. 5th OFer seems like the best the Cards could hope for.

    #151483
    Avatarbccran
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    Sure Garcia had a very low OBP. But he did hit home runs and drive in runs. Arozarena, Mercado, Voit, etc. have done well. Why not Garcia? You never know. And we came in last in the major leagues in home runs last season. So maybe Garcia might have helped? Just a little?

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