TCN’s 2021 Top 50 Prospect List Countdown

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  • #151485
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Facts:
    2019 was Garcia’s third season at Triple-A.
    Garcia showed power in 2019 (.265 ISO), as did other players with the juiced Triple-A ball.
    Even so, Garcia’s 2019 wRC+ was just 88, 12% below the average PCL player.
    Garcia struck out over 30% of the time and walked under 5%, leading to a mediocre .301 OBP.
    All things considered, Garcia did not receive even one call up to St. Louis during the entire 2019 season.

    Garcia was designated for assignment in the fall, letting all teams know he was available.
    StL dealt him to Texas for cash, which one has to assume was the most they could get for him from any other team. (translating: His Triple-A stats apparently did not excite any other team, either.)
    Garcia made just seven plate appearances for Texas in 2020. He had no hits, four strikeouts and a walk.
    Garcia will play the 2021 season at age 28. He remains on Texas’ 40-man roster and will likely use his final minor league option.

    Commentary:
    The Cardinals made a decision to clear out some of the outfielders and try someone else, which they did when they acquired Austin Dean a few weeks later.

    Is this worth any second-guessing? IMO, no, unless/until Garcia shows he can be a productive major leaguer.

    #151486
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    In his return to Memphis in 2017, a slugger hit 31 homers and drove in 89 runs. He was named a Pacific Coast League All-Star for the second consecutive season.

    Why didn’t the Cardinals recognize his power potential?

    (P.S. Because Patrick Wisdom is a classic AAAA player.)

    #151487
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Agree that Garcia was extra depth that the Cards didn’t need. Could he have helped in 2020? Sure. Is it likely that he would have? Not at all. I liked him in the past as a 5th OFer type but the Cards already had Arozarena, Thomas, Jmart, O’Neill, Bader, Fowler and erstwhile infielder in the outfield Edman on the roster, with Williams and Carlson in the wings at the time of the trade.

    #151488
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    It would be great if teams could have a 50-ran roster instead of 40, but that is not the real world. Every team makes tradeoffs every year and they have much more information at their disposal to aid them than HR and RBI counts.

    The bigger picture is that since the Cards traded Randy, every move will be overly scrutinized by those looking to second-guess. The reality is that most of the time, the organization is right about players they let go. Two such examples are Wisdom and Garcia (at least so far).

    Mercado had initial success but quickly fizzled out. As soon as MLB pitchers figured out his weaknesses, he was sent down and hasn’t returned yet. As of now, I would certainly not cite him as a significant loss for the Cardinals by any stretch.

    #151496
    Avatarbccran
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    Yes, Garcia sure didn’t do well in all of those 6 major league at bats. Excellent sample. At least they thought enough of him to bring him up, though. And Mercado certainly fizzled in those 36 games in a shortened 2020 season compared to 115 games in 2019. Carson Kelly struggled in 2020 too. Guess they’re all AAAA like Wisdom. Who was also brought up for several at bats.

    #151505
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I can see your new slogan now – “Garcia is the new Arozarena – well, he could be some day.”

    What you don’t seem to get is that yes, Garcia’s chances of MLB success are not zero. But they probably are not very high, either, despite the Triple-A stats you love to trot out at every turn. So I expect several more pages of comment ahead on this item as it is pounded into the frozen ground.

    More facts to ignore:
    Adolis Garcia was not among MLB Pipeline’s top 30 Rangers prospects for 2020 and is not for 2021, either.
    He is also not among BA’s top 10 prospects for 2021 in the Rangers system. (I don’t have their 2020 list.)

    So, moving ahead, does anyone want to talk about the 2021 Top 50 Prospect List for the St. Louis Cardinals?

    #151507
    Avatarbccran
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    I didn’t bring up Garcia, Brian. You did. I simply made a comment about him. Which you turned into an unnecessary conflict and poster put down. Yes, it’s best to move on.

    #151518
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran, if you scroll back one page, you made the first post about Garcia, asking a question. I agree we should return to the high ground, but let’s keep the facts straight, please.

    #151522
    Avatarbccran
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    Here are the facts, Brian –

    1.) You mentioned him in your article on Cardinals coming off the Top 50 list this year.
    2.) I asked a straight forward question about why he was given away so cheaply after hitting 32 home runs and driving in 96 at Memphis in only 132 games.
    3.) You answered in a snarky and put down way “because organizations don’t make decisions on “Triple-A baseball card stats”.

    I might remind you, again, because you were in the room at Winter Warm Up that day, that Gary LaRocque said that the lower minors were for development, but at the AA and AAA levels it’s time to show production and put up some stats that show you’re at or approaching major league ready. Maybe you forgot about that. It’s diametrically opposed to your baseball card comment.

    Sure there are AAAA players. But then there are also some Arozarenas. Whose AAA stats were eye popping. And led to MO’s comment about re-examining the way they evaluate talent.

    Have to jump into a Board meeting. Enjoy your day of baseball/Cardinals talk.

    #151525
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    If only the world was as black and white as you try to make it. But it is not.

    Because Triple-A stats matter, they are all that matters, or are even the most important matter, is not necessarily a valid read. A way to think about it is being necessary but not sufficient. You seem resistant to broader views of how organizations assess their players, and as a result, you are going to have to expect that others may see things differently, looking beyond the basics of homers and RBI.

    Bottom line, Adolis Garcia is gone, and as of yet, he has done nothing to warrant second-guessing the decision. When all is said and done, that is really all that matters, isn’t it?

    #151530
    Avatarbccran
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    Lol. All I asked was why Garcia was let go with so little compensation when he excelled at HRs and RBI while at Memphis. Especially when we have such a severe power shortage on the big club. This was only after you brought him to light as being gone from the TOP 50 this year. Then our response was short and acute. I’ve never said AAA stats are the only important thing. Just that they should be looked at. No sense in making a federal case out of it, BW. It’s not worth your time or mine.

    #151532
    Avatarmudville
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    I thought Adolis Garcia was going to be an impact player at one time. I, also, was surprised that the Cardinals pretty much had to give him away. It makes me wonder if he had an attitude or maybe he was a problem child. Don’t know. The transaction was odd, in my opinion.

    #151539
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Yep, we all ranked him pretty aggressively at one time, but never in the top 10. By his third season in Triple-A, he was still whiffing at a 30+% rate and wasn’t selective enough to take walks. That lack of progress should tell the story right there. When he was not called up even once in 2019, his handwriting was on the wall.

    Another data point is that in our consolidated rankings here at TCN, Garcia dropped every year. Other prospects were passing him.

    The actual move taking him off the 40-man was made when Kim was signed. We don’t know how much cash they got from the Rangers, but it had to be more than the waiver price or the Cards would have just let him go though waivers. While I was also a bit surprised at the time, ultimately the market sets the value, not our opinions (which can often be inflated about Cardinals prospects because we know them best). It seemed clear Garcia didn’t elicit much interest.

    #151540
    Avatarbccran
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    Yes, strike out rate can be an issue. What was Tyler O’Neill’s strike out rate in the
    minors? At AAA? What’s it been after 450 plate appearances in the major leagues?

    #151542
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    As I said, Garcia was in Triple-A three years. His K rate got WORSE every year. His walk rate never reached 5% and his OBP cratered.

    Year 1: 21.1%, OBP .342
    Year 2: 23.1%, OBP .281
    Year 3: 30.1%, OBP .301

    Does that look like progress?

    Of course, there are other stats to consider, as well, but this is a bad trend.

    P.S. If you want to try to muddy the water by bringing up others, you can do your own research, but two wrongs won’t make a right. And O’Neill was always the higher-ranked prospect of the two, so parsing out individual stats won’t change the overall comparative picture.

    #151544
    Avatarbccran
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    Silly bickering. Garcia and O’Neill are both power hitters with a high K rate. It’s far from muddying the waters – it’s a direct comparison. O’Neill also spent time at AAA in 2017, 2018, and 2019. And be careful when you use those “baseball card” minor league stats to make a point.

    #151637
    Avatarbccran
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    Just an afterthought on strike outs and trends. If strikeout rate is noted for power hitters like O’Neill and Garcia, who are swinging for the fences, what should the strikeout rate be for a player with great speed who just needs to make contact, get on base, and make things happen. What was Bader’s strikeout rate in 2020? How did that compare to 2018 and 2019? And is there a trend with him too?

    #151639
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Pull the data and you can answer a number of your own questions… That level of detail isn’t something that anyone else is going to be able to recite off the top of their head.

    #151645
    Avatarbccran
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    I already did. Bader’s strike out rates as a Cardinal –

    2017 – 26%
    2018 – 29%
    2019 – 29%
    2020 – 32%

    #151646
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Everyone who has any sort of sense about how the game works knows that stats, in game and analystical, must be merged with scouting to make for an honest projection of a player’s future. None of them get to take absolute precedence over the others. The Cards felt that Garcia didn’t have the projection that the others did, no matter what the Memphis stats said. I agree with that. Some won’t. Chances are, there won’t need to be much second guessing as Garcia hasn’t been deemed a benefit to other teams yet either.

    #151654
    Avatarbccran
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    Well, 25, he didn’t just disappear. He was called up to the Rangers big club for several games in 2020. That says something, doesn’t it? Who knows how well he will do in 2021.

    #151658
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Adolis Garcia is well into the top 1% of baseball players on the planet. That’s to be commended. It’s not a put down to note that “who knows how well he will do in 2020” could be answered by 30 teams and thousands of scouts, coaches and fans with the direct answer of “not well enough to worry about” and leave it at that.

    #151662
    Avatarbccran
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    Maybe Arozarena was “not well enough to worry about” and leave it at that too. All I know is that we came in last in the majors in home runs last year and had said good bye to Ozuna, Arozarena, and Garcia.

    #151663
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    At least you’re finally willing to admit your limitations. Good for you.

    Arozarena has a better chance of being a below average player next year than Garcia has of being an above average one.

    #151664
    Avatarbccran
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    Admitting my limitations? Is that what a forum is all about? Talking about another poster’s “limitations”?

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