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OK, now we are getting somewhere. So, NJ, you would offer a long-term contract of three years, $90 million. Is that your top?
As far as “Harper or bust”, NJ, I suggest you accept that comments disagreeing with others’ positions on Harper are not being directed at you personally. You have made it clear that you want them to sign Harper but do not see the 2019 season as “Harper or bust”. Obviously, not all posters agree.
Yes 3/90 would be my top if I had to make an offer. I see 2019 for what it is a chance to see a great player on this team. We haven’t had that since Pujols left. I was happy that we dodged the bullet with Pujols. Not a fan of Yadi’s extension but 3 yrs I can live with.
I’m not in the Harper or bust camp it’s just that we seem to be employing the same strategy that we’ve used the last few years to get the one big player and hope that he fixes everything…if not…Goldschmidt should be the first step, not the only one…
I think what you have to do is take contracts for players over a certain age and have them decline throughout the contract.
So (hypothetical example),
Year 1 = $25 million
Year 2 = $20 million
Year 3 = $15 million
Year 4 = $10 million
Year 5 = $5 millionThat’s how you are able to move them as performance declines.
Of course, for luxury tax purposes, they’d be saying that is $15 million per year…
See my point now, NJ? You assumed three years is not long and I did. You assumed the definition of long-term is five years or more. So rather than the blanket statement that you are against an extension for him, you are actually against an extension longer than three years and more than $30 million per year.
One view leaves no discussion. The other provides a point for further dialogue.
I don’t know what will be really important to Goldy. But that’s a important factor that we won’t know until the negotiations begin. He was severely underpaid during his prime will that dictate his expectations of getting the big contract now that he deserved in his prime?
Logan, you are aware the Cardinals are looking for more players, right? No one said that Goldy is the “only step”, just like no one said that the Cards are “all in on 2019” (yesterdays misunderstanding – not with you).
When expectations are out of whack, disappointment is bound to follow.
I see your point but my preference is still that they let him walk. But 3 yrs is as much as I could stomach.
NJ315
Participant
Because the odds are he won’t. Tell me all the long term contracts at age 32 that have worked out?Well there have been several players here that have been great well into their 30’s.
Here are the ages of when they arrived in St. Louis:
Mark McGwire- 33 Played here for 5 years
Jim Edmonds- 30 Played here for 8 years
Scott Rolen- 27 Played here for 6 years
Matt Holliday- 29 Played here for 8 years
Chris Carpenter- 29 Played here for 9 years
Yadi Molina- Is currently 35 and still going strongI think Paul Goldschmidt is as good and durable as anyone on that list. I would not hesitate to give him a 5 year deal after next season.
If you only want Goldy through age 34 (3/90), do you only want Harper through age 34?
Are you assuming he will take an 8 yr deal? Will he get a better / longer offer?
Well Goldy will be 32-34. Harper could have 10 years and be 26-35. Goldy 5 yrs 32-36 I doubt he takes 5.
Brian, I know that Goldy isn’t the only player that we’re going to get I just meant that he’s the big ticket item and the rest of the guys that we’ll get are more pieces of the puzzle rather than really impact players like he is, acquired to play much smaller roles…
Based on what you think 5 or 6 will get it done? Is this a hunch or is it wishful thinking? I think he will looking to maximize what is most likely his last contract with the added caveat that he already gave a discount in his prior contract. What is your thinking behind the 5 or 6 years? More money and less years?
NJ, why are you ok with Molina’s contract covering his age 35-36-37 seasons (which are at a team-record high salary), but not those same ages for Goldy? Seems to me a catcher would be far more at risk than a first baseman.
I am not ok with it I said I can live with it. The reason being that at least we got Molina’s prime so maybe there was a little extra for prior services rendered. Goldy will be looking for payment for all the years he was severely underpaid why would we be pay for those?
Logan, I am sure you are aware they are looking closely at Britton. MLBTR estimates he will get three years, $33 million. That would be a pretty significant move as far as I am concerned.
I think 5 or 6 years will get it done because I think that is what the market will bear. The days of signing players until age 40 are probably over based on what I’ve seen teams do the last couple of off seasons. If there is some maverick owner next year who decides to give Goldy a 8 or 9 year deal then I guess the Cards will have to take the draft pick and savings and go sign Arenado or whomever. The point is that the Cardinals will have many many good options on what to do next winter.
With all due respect, trying to draw a difference between being “OK with” and “I can live with” is nothing more than a word game.
And again you are making assumptions that are not real, but perceived. No one has said he is looking to make up for lost salary with Arizona. But even it if was true, it would affect the ANNUAL VALUE, not the TERM. The term is what we are discussing here.
You can live with paying Molina at the same ages you cannot live with paying Goldschmidt. That does not compute.
I agree he may only be able to get as many as 6. After that it becomes a bidding war for how much money. It will depend how many other teams will like to bid and I think probably the Yankees will be interested. But if they sign him then you will be very happy and will be very disappointed.
No reason to want to keep this guy around any longer than absolutely necessary.
From BenFred:
Goldschmidt has slashed .337/.433/.578 in nearly 100 plate appearances at Wrigley Field. He has an absurd batting line of .353/.471/.699 in more than 150 career at-bats against Cubs pitching. No player with more than 150 at-bats against the Cubs since 2012 — not Joey Votto, not Matt Holliday, not Ryan Braun — has compiled a higher on-base plus slugging percentage than Goldschmidt’s 1.170.
Brewers manager Craig Counsell is cringing along with Maddon.
If Goldschmidt is a Cubs killer, what is the right word for what he does to the Brewers?
He has slashed .366/.478/.652 in more than 200 plate appearances against the Brewers. He has spent his trips to Milwaukee making hitter-friendly Miller Park look like a Little League lot, slashing .420/.500/.807 in his 23 games there. No player with more than 200-plus plate appearances against the Brewers since 2012 has a higher OPS against them than Goldschmidt’s 1.130.
Brian:
Logan is right. The Cardinals make one”big” move and stop. After 15 it was Leake, after 16 it was Fowler and after 17 it was Ozuna. They stopped after those moves. Mikolas was the lone exception. I don’t know when the “All iI” thing got started but they never said that and they would NEVER do that. They were supposed to be “players.” Maybe they will be but if Fowler is the right fielder then there ism’t much to be done. All the positions are set. They’ll add relief pitchers and then go to Florida. They needed to release Fowler or trade him and sign McCutcheon or someone else of significant ability. Fowler is just another dead spot in the line up to join Bader and Wong. My opinion of things based on previous years and I don’t see it changing appreciably. Goldschmidt will not get the Cardinals to the WS or even in the playoffs unless other “real” moves are made but as you said they are not done yet. I just hope it’s not another slug parade.
Nate, the Cards improved from 18-1 to 12-1 solely because of Goldschmidt, and have pulled even with the Cubs and Brewers, according to the oddsmakers. One of those teams is going to win the division.
I bet that dropping Fowler and adding Cutch would not have moved the odds needle one iota. McCutchen’s fWAR last season was 2.6. Fowler’s fWAR two years ago was 2.5. I get that folks are focused on last year instead, but I don’t get why they assume Fowler would drag the team down all year in 2019. They also are selling short Tyler O’Neill.
But, lets talk Fowler on the Fowler thread.
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