Nolan Arenado trade thread

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  • #118625
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Well, that is different. Had you said “more consistent” instead of “much, much better player”, I would not have called you on it.

    With both healthy, and especially with Arenado out of Coors, the difference would not be as great as was suggested. Bryant’s health has not been mentioned as trade inhibitor, but it could be.

    #118626
    Avatargscottar
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    If I am trading for a player I want to know how he is playing now instead of how he used to be.

    #118627
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Last season, the difference was 4.8 to 5.9. And how will their numbers change with new teams? One can argue how severe the Coors factor is, but it cannot be ignored completely.

    #118628
    thejagerthejager
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    I am all for going for Arenado…s Gscott said he is in his prime and comparison to Golfy isnt really accurate…he is worth giving up lots of value AND paying lots of money…

    if he came up through the Cards org and was awesome as he is we would have given him that big of a contract so i don’t see why we wouldnt be willing to pay it to someone else

    however, i think that offer is too light…even with the opt out in two years…his contract is already big, i am not so sure he woudl want to exercise it being 2 yrs older and already being paid so much…if this contract had him locked in around 25 i would see him bolt, but it doesnt…it’s 35mil and only goes down a little for the last two years….i dont think we will see salaries go up so much to make his deal seem like he can get more…

    to me deal has to be top tier, we wont be able to dump anything we dont want or that is hopes and dreams…maybe a sell low on Reyes but even that seems like a throw in for a deal like this

    id say we hold Carlson, Herrera, and maybe Thompson….but that’s about it

    Gorman, Woodford, Knizner, Bader/Randy/ONeill/Thomas, Montero/Nunez
    for
    Arenado

    I’d also consider Blackmon and Fowler swap as a part of it, the deal being based more around the Rox getting out from Blackmon earlier by taking on Fowler whose deal ends after next year…we have other outfielders to offer to throw in if they balk…though i think it is a gamble enough for both sides

    I’d also ask for Wolters, who coudl be a fine backup catcher for us and starter if need be whiel we wait for Herrera to mature as we will have dealt Knizner in the deal

    This is just a preliminary idea of players…but i think we have the quantity and just enough quality to make it happen…in a way that doesnt destroy our team or farm long term..we’d be a veteran team, and big payroll, but we have enough starting pitching depth to cover us and enough filler prospects to make up at the positions of need if things go poorly…outside maybe SS…where Sosa is really the only competent defender that we have…That Iglesias deal the O’s got for him looks pretty cheap and would have made us better for not much money

    #118630
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    An earlier exchange:

    Fowler isn’t waving his NTC

    How do we know that? Colorado is closer to his home in Las Vegas and he is a former Rockie.

    The question we should be asking: “Why would Colorado want Fowler?”

    #118631
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Jager, how many 5 or 6 for one deals ever happen? I just can’t see the Cards trading that many players or the Rockies asking for that many. Pick 3-4 of them and have the Cards get a little money in the deal and you’re probably close.

    #118632
    Avatargscottar
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    I don’t think they would want Fowler at all but the Cardinals might balk at taking on Arenado’s big contract without getting a little salary relief themselves. The Cardinals would have to sweeten the rest of the deal with top end talent.

    #118634
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Then if I was Colorado, I would look elsewhere for a deal. I wouldn’t take on bad contracts to trade away a superstar that doesn’t have to be traded. The Rockies hold all the cards.

    #118635
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    The way trades have worked for the Cards lately, Arenado would show up with a torn labrum or hit .250 with 20 HRs and decline from there.

    #118643
    AvatarPadsFS
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    BlackHillsCard

    How about Fowler, O’Neill, Knizer, Montero, and Reyes?

    Fowler isn’t waving his NTC and it’ll cost more than that for Arrenado. You would most definitely have to include Gorman in any trade package for him with Gorman being the centerpiece prospect.

    Fowler wouldn’t be include also since he left Colorado on bad terms with the mgmt and fans.

    Gorman and Carpenter seem like the obvious choices to go to Colorado. I mean, where would Carpenter even play if we had Arenado?

    Now, Arenado is very nearly being paid market-value playing for the Rockies. There isn’t a lot of value there in a way.

    I think a possible trade would be Arenado and McGee for some combo of Gorman, Carpenter, Bader, and Knizner. That’s a massive overpay for the Cardinals to be able to buy out Colorado for being the only ‘supplier’ of all-star 3Bmen on the market.

    By including McGee, Colorado saves about $26M in 2020. Then they save $16M in 2021 and then 5 yrs of $35M-ish. for a total of of over $200M.

    #118644
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    I dont think you can include Gorman as long as Arrendano has his player option after 2021

    #118648
    Avatargscottar
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    I dont think you can include Gorman as long as Arrendano has his player option after 2021

    I agree which is why I would offer them Montero instead. They still get a very good 3B prospect but we keep our best 3B prospect in case Arenado opts out.

    And for those worrying about Gorman being blocked:

    1. Arenado could opt out in two years.
    2. The NL could adopt the DH in two years.
    3. If the preceding two items don’t happen we would have a great trade chip.

    #118657
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    If I am the Cardinals, I look at how many incremental wins Arenado would give me over (ideally) a Carpenter-Edman RH-LH platoon at third base.

    As we saw on page 1 of this thread, Arenado is consistently worth slightly under 6 wins. Carpenter has been below 3.2 wins only once in the last seven years (in 2019). If Edman gives you even one win as a part timer at third, then Arenado might be worth 1-2 incremental wins (and that assumes zero negative Coors effect).

    Another simpler verification is that in 2019, Carpenter+Edman delivered 4.4 fWAR. Arenado was at 5.9.

    So what would be the cost of those incremental 1.5 wins?

    The Cards give up multiple players plus take on $35 million per year in salary. Even if they dump Carpenter, they still would have to eat some of his pay.

    Bottom line, I do not see a way the equation for the Cardinals would close. Sorry.

    • This reply was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    #118672
    thejagerthejager
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    I think if Fowler would agree they would take on Fowler IF we took on Blackmon…they are out from under the length of Blackmon’s deal and we get a player that may fit a bit better (we need a more leadoff type right) we get stuck with more money longer, but get a better player… Rox get a useful player back but more importantly save money long term

    As for Gorman…it is a risk…but Gorman is far from proven and we do have others (like Montero) who could potentially take on the future 3b role

    As for too many prospects…for 1 player…i agree it doesnt happen often…but this is for an MVP player in his prime…i dont think you can toss anything out the door

    amended:

    Blackmon + Wolters + Arenado
    for
    Gorman + Thompson + Bader + Fowler + Knizner + Seijas

    Blackmon’s contract is a risk but at least he is still producing at the moment, and IMO his ability to be a leadoff hitter won’t die so quickly
    Arenado is worthy risk for money (as i said in my earlier post) and prospects
    Wolters isn’t necessary but i think would fit in quite nicely behind Yadi as a bridge to Herrera

    Gorman and Thompson are tough losses as power on the offense and lefty in the rotation, but them and the others are all replaceable to some degree…the Cardinals are good at producing more starters through the draft…and behind Gorman for long term at 3b is Montero, Nunez, maybe even Edman if we had to…not to mention FA

    It would be a crazy thing to happen….but i see no reason why we couldnt entice the Rox

    a true MVP 3b all around player like Arenado is rare…and something we havent see since the likes of Rolen and he wasnt as good as Arenado IMO…and the group of Arenado, Goldy, Blackmon, Yadi, Wong feels a lot like the early 2000’s teams anchored by veterans with splashes of up and comers like DeJong, Carlson

    #118673
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    jager? If you did that what are you going to do with Carpenter?

    #118681
    Avatargscottar
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    I don’t think any of us here realistically think it could happen anyway. The only reason we are discussing it is because of a couple of paragraphs Jeff Passan threw together by citing some mystery source.

    The math you put together makes sense if Carp actually achieves over 3 fWAR and if Edman achieves all of his at 3B. Both assumptions seem rather optimistic to me. Looking at Carp’s history to predict his future seems a bit shaky considering his performance since August of 2018 and considering his age. I doubt many Cardinal fans expect to get much out of him but we would be pleasantly surprised if we did.

    #118684
    Avatargscottar
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    Jags, under your scenario the Cardinals would have a net payroll addition of $40M and that is assuming the Rockies take all of Fowler’s salary. That would put the Cardinals over $200M which doesn’t seem likely.

    If we are taking on excess baggage I would rather take the one year of Wade Davis than the four years of Blackmon. Charlie put up good numbers in 2019 but I wouldn’t want him for four more years considering he is 33.

    #118686
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #118692
    Avatargscottar
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    Brian, I agree that this trade is highly unlikely but you actually started the thread but now seem perplexed that posters are actually debating it. Why was thread started then? Just to claim that Passan is an idiot? That would be like the arsonist coming to put out the fire.

    #118694
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Way to be reasonable, Brian. That’s only like the exact opposite of the purpose of the internet, no? 😂

    #118701
    Avatargscottar
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    Cardinal fans are so unreasonable they buy 3 million tickets every year.

    #118703
    AvatarPadsFS
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    Another simpler verification is that in 2019, Carpenter+Edman delivered 4.4 fWAR. Arenado was at 5.9.

    So what would be the cost of those incremental 1.5 wins?

    The Cards give up multiple players plus take on $35 million per year in salary. Even if they dump Carpenter, they still would have to eat some of his pay.

    Bottom line, I do not see a way the equation for the Cardinals would close. Sorry.

    You aren’t factoring in that Edman would play regardless. He played just 57% of his innings at 3B, mostly with Carpenter out. If Carpenter is providing great 3B production, then Edman is playing elsewhere. If Arenado is playing 3B, Edman is playing elsewhere. Be it 2B, SS, or in the OF, Edman gives us above-average backup play.

    Beyond that, Edman had a career year ~ 3.2 fWAR and, without a doubt, can’t be expected to produce a similar OPS as he did in his half-year in 2019. I’d personally remove him from the equation altogether.

    Meanwhile, Carpenter has some real issues of consistency, age, and eroding defense that gives me great pause on using WAR figures from 3-5 years ago. I definitely wouldn’t expect him to maintain his 3.0+ WAR over the next two years, or expect Edman to pick up the slack. Then you are looking at a 5.9 to 1.2 WAR gap based on last year. The projections have Arenado at 5.0 and Carpenter at 2.0 ~ a 3.0 WAR gap, which could escalate if Carpenter’s erratic play takes a turn for the worse.

    • This reply was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by AvatarPadsFS.
    #118706
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    CariocaCardinal

    I dont think you can include Gorman as long as Arenado has his player option after 2021

    Gorman wasn’t even in the organization two years ago. Plenty of time to figure it out and you’d have Edman, DeJong, Montero, etc. to plug in. I wouldn’t be worried about that. If Arenado is good enough to turn down a 5yr/$164M deal for his age 31-35 years, then we got our money’s worth.

    #118710
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Cardinal fans are so unreasonable they buy 3 million tickets every year.

    It’s all about Dewallet.

    #118711
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    So, we should remove Edman from 3B consideration and assume that Carpenter will not go back up to anything close to what he was before 2019? That is a more pessimistic view than I am taking.

    But numbers aside, I believe the best way to handle third is for Carpenter to play against RHP only and Edman against LHP. That helps maximize what Carpenter is best at. Also, I do not expect Edman to play nearly as much OF in 2020, with so many other options, making 3B the primary place to get him into the lineup (with everyone healthy).

    I highly doubt those making projections are considering playing time this way. (Granted, I don’t know if the Cardinals are, either, but they are smarter than me!)

    P.S. I would agree that if Arenado joined the team, then Edman’s role would be diminished (and Carpenter’s eliminated).

    • This reply was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
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