Nolan Arenado trade thread

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum Nolan Arenado trade thread

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 420 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #118717
    AvatarGameCard
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Edman will start somewhere almost every day. You always play your most productive offensive player.

    #118719
    AvatarGameCard
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Edman will start somewhere almost every day. You always play your most productive offensive player and until he isn’t productive he plays. There shouldn’t be any argument with this.

    #118730
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    No news, just Rosenthal’s speculation on how it would be a nice fit, harkening back to Rolen.

    #118731
    AvatarGameCard
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Per Rosenthal, the Cardinals are among the teams with interest in the 28-year-old. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Tuesday that Colorado is intrigued by St. Louis as a trade partner.

    The Cards have just three players signed beyond 2021, giving them the financial flexibility to take on most or all of the seven years and $234 million remaining on Arenado’s contract. They also have a combination of Major League-ready youngsters and prospects that could interest the Rockies.

    #118738
    AvatarPadsFS
    Participant

    Free

    Edman should have a good year as a super sub. I’m projecting around a .786 OPS. My point is that either Carpenter is good and Edman doesn’t play 3B much or Carpenter is bad/injured and Edman does play, which makes us worse at the positions that Edman would otherwise back up for. In an case, I don’t see 3B giving us anywhere near what Arenado provides.

    Also, I think WAR should be looked at more along an exponential curve than a linear curve. There are only 8 playing spots for us to get above-average production from. CA is tied up. 1B is tied up. 2B is tied up. SS is tied up. Etc.

    The Cardinals got about 23 WAR from the positional side this past year, meaning the starters need to average over 2.0 WAR each to have a successful season, assuming the backups can give about 0.5-1.0 WAR. The projections have us around 18-20 WAR total with DeJong and Goldschmidt at about 3.5 each.

    So a 2.0 WAR difference would be a large benefit to a team like the Cards that is in a win-now mode.

    #118739
    AvatarGameCard
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Edman is not a sub that is just wrong.

    #118741
    AvatarGameCard
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    If we do get Arenado don’t we have to trade Carpenter?

    #118743
    AvatarPadsFS
    Participant

    Free

    My package has Carpenter going to Colorado.

    GameCard

    Edman is not a sub that is just wrong.

    Edman doesn’t have a position as of now. He can still get 600 PAs as a super sub.

    We gave Munoz, O’Neill, and Martinez 705 PAs last year for instance.

    #118744
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Pads wrote:

    So a 2.0 WAR difference would be a large benefit to a team like the Cards that is in a win-now mode.

    That is only half of the picture I presented.

    At what cost?

    Just yesterday, Craig Edwards at Fangraphs showed that the cost of a win in free agency this winter is up to somewhere between $8.0 and $9.1 MM/WAR, depending on the calculation method.

    So, how could the Cards can land Arenado without overpaying – at that incremental cost of $16-18 MM or less? Like I said, I don’t see how the math works realistically – forgetting about the players they will have to give up in the trade, too.

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    #118745
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
    Participant

    Free

    Also, I think WAR should be looked at more along an exponential curve than a linear curve.

    This brings up a related point to me that I’ve often wondered about. It seems wrong on the surface, because WAR is accumulated linearly by each player. However, consider 8 position players who average 2.5 WAR each. Is it better to have all 8 players be 2.5 WAR each? Or would a mix of one 6-WAR player, one 4-WAR player, one 2.5 WAR player, two 2-WAR players, one 1.5-WAR player, and two 1-WAR players. That’s also an average of 2.5 WAR per player.

    I have believed the latter lineup is better because you have a couple of stars who can carry the team for important stretches and can instill fear in their opponents. In other words, it might make a team greater than the sum of its parts. Have nothing to back that up, it’s just my gut feel. Anybody else have an opinion?

    If true, it would be important to sign a guy or two like Arenado every decade.

    #118872
    Avatar1982 willie
    Participant

    Free

    all this stuff about war just makes my head spin. I don t care what numbers say, carpenter wasn’t worth a half a win last year, probably less, maybe a negative if everything was factored in. outside of his two month historic run, he wasn’t much better the year before. unless carpenter went and found the fountain of youth this offseason, its not likely he does a lot better this season. having Arenado at third base alone without any hitting, improves our chances alone. if he does just what he normally does, he will make us and definitely goldy better if they put goldy in front of him. so if they can make this deal they do two things. we instantly on paper are a better team than we have been in a while, no more just hoping the carpenters and fowlers of the world returned back to their glory days. secondly it would show the fans that the cardinals are definitely serious. goldy was a small step last year but the goldy right now isn’t like he was and definitely isn’t as good as Arenado. but placed in front of him, he could get some of the magic back. and it would also keep guys like me off ownerships back this year for a while.

    #118882
    Avatarmudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Who knows what they will do? It makes sense to trade Fowler and then sign Ozuna, and stay payroll neutral. It makes sense for the future. OTOH, acquiring Arenado would likely put this team over the top. But it’s hard to fathom the Cardinal organization taking on a player who’s getting paid $35M. Seein’ is believin’ for that.

    #118895
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Is anyone at all concerned about Arenado away from Coors? He’s been good but not great away from home in his career. Other than DJ LeMahieu, most everyone has a downturn in their career after leaving Colorado. That certainly gives me pause about giving up good prospects and taking on the huge money Nolan is owed down the road.

    #118911
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Not concerned about Arenado away from Coors because he doesn’t play for us! 🙂

    #118918
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual
    #118920
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Arenado really only makes sense if the Cards are in “win now” mode. 3B may not have been a great position for the Cards last year but you’ve got two solid options for 2020 in Carp and Edman, along with maybe the most stacked position on the farm with Montero, Gorman, Nunez and company spread out through the system. Unless you think none of those guys will pan out, I don’t see why you take on such a huge payroll spike and give up some good talent.

    #118921
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
    Participant

    Free

    Reason for concern on Arenado, I’m not going to list out each stat, but the cumulative one….

    Arenado at home: .995 OPS
    Arenado away: .799 OPS

    Matt Carpenter at home: .840 OPS
    Matt Carpenter away: .829 OPS

    I’m not saying Carpenter will be a better 3B in 2020, just that when Arenado is out of Coors, the salary and prospect/player cost likely wouldn’t be worth it. Going after Rendon (which I don’t recall once being linked to the Cards) or Donaldson would have made more sense if they were truly trying to upgrade 3B.

    #118926
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Acquiring Arenado is a move that Jocketty would have done, like he did with Scott Rolen. They are actually similar players in my opinion.

    Que the fWAR comparisons.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #118929
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual
    #118931
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    And Jocketty would have traded away the farm if necessary to make the deal. Times change. He didn’t.

    #118934
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Acquiring Arenado is a move that Jocketty would have done, like he did with Scott Rolen. They are actually similar players in my opinion.

    Que the fWAR comparisons.

    I think they are similar too, although like CFICT, I worry about the Coors effect. If I felt like his production would stay similar once he got to St Louis, I’d be happy to try to find a deal.

    #118937
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    And Jocketty would have traded away the farm if necessary to make the deal. Times change. He didn’t.

    To acquire an elite talent requires giving up elite talent. That hasn’t changed.

    I want Carlson, Gorman, Liberatore, etc… in St. Louis as much as the next guy but if there is really an opportunity to get one of the top 5 players in all of mlb you at least have to consider it in my opinion.

    #118954
    AvatarOnyxgem
    Participant

    Free

    And proven ML talent that is not old is always worth more than prospects who barely turn out like expected…

    #118957
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #118958
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    gscottar said:

    I want Carlson, Gorman, Liberatore, etc… in St. Louis as much as the next guy but if there is really an opportunity to get one of the top 5 players in all of mlb you at least have to consider it in my opinion.

    Agreed, but again you tweak the focus of the discussion. Of course, the Cards should consider Arenado. I did not suggest otherwise. As always, the devil is in the details. 😉

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 420 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and their minor league system for 20 years