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I have thought from the get go that this was going to be a two or three year rebuild. Thinking otherwise is delusional.
Katie Woo goes on to say that she still thinks Arenado gets moved eventually, however, if the Cardinals end up stuck with him then others like Matz and Fedde will get moved because payroll must come down further. I would imagine Helsley comes back into play at that point since he doesn’t have a NTC.
This really needs to get worked out. At this point the thought of Arenado coming back is awkward and will not be good for anyone. Imagine showing up to work everyday knowing that your bosses don’t want you there.
Around five teams have spoken with the Cardinals about a trade, per the report.
We know one of them was Houston…
but he added the wrinkle that Arenado is still holding out hope for a potential match with the Dodgers.
Now this is delusional…
And more on the Cardinals financial situation from MLBTR:
ESPN’s Jeff Passan hears differently, reporting that the Astros were willing to cover a heftier $59MM of the $74MM remaining on the contract. That’s on top of the $10MM the Rockies are covering under the terms of their prior deal. In essence, it seems the Cardinals would’ve only been on the hook for anywhere from $5-19MM in total — as compared to the $64MM they currently owe Arenado ($12MM of which is deferred). Woo and Rome write that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is “facing pressure from ownership” to further reduce payroll.
And the perception of Arenado’s value:
Passan writes that the Houston veto could push the Cards to show willingness to eat more of the contract, thus bringing in additional suitors.
Arenado needs to accept he is not going to the Dodgers…
I think the Cardinals have overshared about their financial condition…that’s going to hurt them in trade negotiations.
Even though the Cardinals have given other teams the impression Helsley is not available, I am sure he is going to be traded this offseason, as will Fedde. It’s just that the Cardinals cannot do two things at once, and their priority is trading Arenado’s salary.
Based on the difference between announced attendance figures and the amount of people showing up to games in 2024, I would be forecasting the Cardinals for at least 500,000 fewer ticket sales in 2025, probably closer to 800,000. This is going to be a classic rebuild.
The handful of teams, including the Dodgers, aren’t interested is my guess. Bill is going to have to slide a stack of cash across the table in Nolan’s direction to get a deal done. He probably cheaped out which is why Nolan killed the Houston deal.
I think Houston was more about them trading away Kyle Tucker.
But man, how could Arenado or his representatives even suggest he is holding out hope for the Dodgers? Ridiculous.
The losers of the Bregman sweepstakes will be interested in Arenado. I have no doubt abut that. The Yankees need a 3B, the Red Sox will need a 3B if they move to Devers to 1B, the Phillies will need a 3B since they want to move Bohm, the Astros obviously need a 3B, the Mets probably need a 3B upgrade but they seem to be focused on Alonso right now, the Angels will need a 3B since they are ready to give up on Rendon, and who knows else? Heck, even the Cubs need a 3B although intra-division trades are supposedly taboo.
The Cardinals have let it be known that they are willing to pay some down so I still think this gets done. I think Arenado wants to leave too but he is just using every bit of his leverage to get what he can. He wouldn’t be the first player to do that.
I have no problem with him vetoing the Astros trade after the Tucker trade.
I do have a problem with him or his representatives suggesting he is holding out hope of going to the Dodgers.
I don’t know which is worse, the Cardinals oversharing financial information or Arenado expressing a desire to go to a team which has better production at a lower cost.
If he really wanted to go to the Dodgers, he should have put up a 6 WAR season…
This isn’t Dodgers or bust. I’m sure he does want to play there. Who wouldn’t? Apparently the Dodgers do not have much interest at this time but they are never out on any player really.
Regardless, I doubt if Mo is so obsessed with the Dodgers. He knows that he has other teams he can do a deal with under the right parameters.
Any player with a genuine desire to win a piece of championship jewelry could well look upon going over to those Dodgers as a risky proposition simply because of the risk of another long and arduous 36 year drought between WS Championshps…(I don’t count 2020)…But Arenado may look past that risk simply for being afforded the opportunity and honor of once again playing on a Big League IF with Little Eddie manned up immediately to his left…Who wouldn’t?
John Denton of MLB.com feels the Dodgers aren’t entirely out of the question and that Arenado isn’t likely to approve a deal anywhere “until the Dodgers tell him no to his face.”
Latest On Nolan Arenado https://t.co/tSmfK2cuuf pic.twitter.com/em9wra6WUx
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) December 19, 2024
There remains the possibility that the Cardinals don’t trade Arenado. If the Cardinals were to eat $15-20M of his remaining contract, it would cost the Cardinals $5-7M/yr, that is, 1/3rd of the $15-20M that they would have to pay to unload him, plus add to that cost whatever they would have to pay their new third baseman. Keeping Arenado would cost the Cardinals the entire $74M that he is due over the next three years, which amounts to $24.6M/yr. Arenado’s presence on he field for the Cardinals might be worth at least half that in ticket revenue because of his reputation and prior success. In addition to that, Arenado could contribute to the Cardinals getting into the playoffs in the weak NL Central which would further increase revenue and, thereby, decrease the cost of keeping him even more. I guess what I’m saying is that, even though the Cardinals want to trade Arenado, they are not ‘over a barrel’ with this. They could just hang onto him, and it wouldn’t really cost them that much.
I don’t know if everyone saw, but Katie Woo started a podcast this week. Evidently, Trevor Rosenthal will be her partner once per week, and she will have a guest for the second episode.
I watched her first two episodes last night. She managed to get some digs in at the Cardinals front office in each one, in sort of an under-the-breath kind of way.
Yesterday’s episode was primarily about Arenado, but last night’s guest actually offered some legitimate reasons for not shopping Helsley right now.
If Arenado wants out and if he really wants to play for the Dodgers then he will have to consider a salary reduction.
He can’t expect the Cardinals to eat a big chunk of his money and get very little back just to accommodate his wishes.
If I were the Cardinals I’d play hardball with him. Ok Nolan – you want to play for the Dodgers? Here’s how that will work – we’ll eat a little, you eat a little, and they will write you a (relatively) little check. If that doesn’t work then you can just stay here and take Carpenter’s place on our bench.
He may have a no trade clause but the Cardinals don’t have to make a horrible deal just to move his ass.
Arenado knows he’s plan B this offseason and once Bergman gets his multi-year, Plan B has better leverage. With a handful of teams looking to upgrade there, Nado will have a market.
The recent press time helps Nolan, and keeps him on one of the front burners for those interested. The decline to go to HOU was fitting patience, of market timing, even if it was due to Tucker and Bergman gone from their roster.
It appears he wants to be the “final piece” on a stacked roster.
There remains the possibility that the Cardinals don’t trade Arenado. If the Cardinals were to eat $15-20M of his remaining contract, it would cost the Cardinals $5-7M/yr, that is, 1/3rd of the $15-20M that they would have to pay to unload him, plus add to that cost whatever they would have to pay their new third baseman. Keeping Arenado would cost the Cardinals the entire $74M that he is due over the next three years, which amounts to $24.6M/yr. Arenado’s presence on he field for the Cardinals might be worth at least half that in ticket revenue because of his reputation and prior success. In addition to that, Arenado could contribute to the Cardinals getting into the playoffs in the weak NL Central which would further increase revenue and, thereby, decrease the cost of keeping him even more. I guess what I’m saying is that, even though the Cardinals want to trade Arenado, they are not ‘over a barrel’ with this. They could just hang onto him, and it wouldn’t really cost them that much.
I pretty much disagree with all of this. The Cardinals are apparently over a barrell because BDW is wanting Mo to cut more payroll. Paying Arenado $20M over the next three years instead of $64M is a big deal if you are desperate to save some bucks.
Have to spend on a new 3B? I don’t think so. Gorman, Saggesse, or Donovan will be cheap.
I think too much has been said publicly for the Cardinals to retreat now. Arenado is going to be traded come ____ or high water.
Arenado knows he’s plan B this offseason and once Bergman gets his multi-year, Plan B has better leverage. With a handful of teams looking to upgrade there, Nado will have a market.
This is correct. We know that there is interest out there for Arenado. The Astros literally agreed to trade for him and I doubt they are the only team to have interest. The others have Bregman as Plan A and Arenado as Plan B. They aren’t going to pull the trigger on Arenado until Bregman is off of the board.
I’m tired of the Arenado saga. G and the Blingster are right. Arenado isn’t the only thing I’m tired of. Im ready to move on to whatever the future holds. And Arenado and Mo aren’t the future. I really do like talking baseball. This is finances and politics.
Would almost certainly mean Bregman is gone from Houston – and that Arenado won’t end up there. Astros would go with Walker at 1B and Isaac Paredes at 3B. https://t.co/imB3uo7epR
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 20, 2024
Arenado may not be our next transaction. Reports are Mo needs to get busy shedding payroll. Here comes the scary part!
This is Houston basically telling Arenado to stuff it. Good for them.
He still could get traded though. Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and others are still in the Bregman sweepstakes. The loser will need a Plan B.
Arenado may not be our next transaction. Reports are Mo needs to get busy shedding payroll. Here comes the scary part!
I think Mo is going to wait this Arenado saga out awhile longer before he kicks Matz, Fedde, and Helsley to the curb. He still has almost two months until spring training.
HOU fell in Mo’s lap, so he bit on it. He had to right?
Now back to Bills decision (shed), and Mo is being reminded publicly. Buckle up!
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