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We know the Cardinals are shopping Nolan Arenado. Here are the questions:
1. How much money do you think the Cardinals should eat to trade Arenado? Cots shows him making:
– $32 million in 2025, with $5 million paid by Colorado
– $27 million in 2026, with $5 million paid by Colorado
– $15 million in 20272. How much do you think the Cardinals will actually pay down to trade Arenado?
3. Where do you see him landing?
4. What kind of prospect return are you expecting?
5. What should the Cardinals do with the savings (keep it, invest in players for 2025, invest in minor leagues, invest in stadium, etc)? I should probably add that you should give a rationale and budget for your choice.
1) 2027 is on STL. It’s our extension, doesn’t involve COL, etc., and it would be easier to pay in 27′.
The FO could prioritize trading the next two seasons of his contract, where Nolans value should be highest, and “eat” the 2027 season on our future budget (if that’s legal).
2) unknown amount
3) the unknown amount could increase or decrease the trade pool of trade destinations. We may need one of the banks?4) again, unknown amount. Are they willing to take a lesser contract back to help the trade return?
5) the budget is a black hole until Bill says otherwise. My only major concern is the player budget. I expect ownership to spend elsewhere, for their reasons.
I doubt Arenado will be moved this winter unless a high level young player/prospect goes with him, and I kind of doubt that will happen. BDW is not going to write the size of a check it would take to see NA paying somewhere else. Especially with no hot prospect 3B kicking down the door. Maybe find a deal at the deadline if NA is producing. Maybe try again next winter when the numbers are different. Meanwhile try to identify or acquire his eventual replacement.
If Nolan Gorman could keep from striking out almost half the time then I could see Arenado moved. But that’s unlikely to happen.
I don’t think he’s going anywhere this winter, except maybe a two week vacation on an exotic tropical island. I’d guess it’ll probably shake out more like a send-off to a contender at the end of next July. Or, he may return with a vengeance in ’25 and help the Cardinals return to significance. Hey, hope springs eternal, right?
I think Arenado will be here next year, with a fairly high probability he will be moved at the trade deadline if we are wandering in the desert as far as the standings.
I also think he is a good candidate for a resurgence next year. It seemed his back bothered him more than he let on and sapped some of his power.
Don’t see him traded this winter as we are not going to pay what it would take to get another team to take him.
I think if you look at how Arenado’s deal is structured, it is clear the Cardinals were always going to be likely to trade him the last few years of the contract – Colorado is paying $5 million in each of the last two years of their contract, Arenado is seeing his salary reduced by $5 million in 2026 & 2027…
So…
1) I think at a minimum, the Cardinals have to match the contributions from Colorado & Arenado and contribute $5 million per year to him playing for another team.
Arenado played like a $10-15 million per year guy last year. That means the Cardinals would likely have to get his salary for the acquiring team into the $15-20 million range to make a trade happen, and the $10 million range to get good prospects.
2) I agree with gscottar, they will likely have to contribute $10 million in 2025, bringing the total outlay to $20 million over three years.
3) I do not think the Dodgers are going to be interested. That will leave the Yankees as Arenado’s preferred landing spot, based on chance of winning.
4. I think the Cardinals will wind up with 3 prospects. Nobody in the Top 100, perhaps two prospects in a team Top 20, and one unranked.
5. I think they should reinvest in players on one year deals. The formula the Cardinals had outside of the MV3 seasons was they had a good floor of talent. They haven’t had that the last few years.
Best case is, you have a more competitive team and stay in the hunt for the division crown, keep the fan base.
Worst case is you can trade some of those veterans for prospects at the deadline.
If we are going to act like a small market club from now on, we’d still be willing to trade players on expiring deals at the deadline even if we were competing for the division.
Of course, what I think the Cardinals will actually do is just pocket the savings.
2. I think they will pay down $10M in 2025, $5M in 2026, and $0 in 2027. There is no need to bundle our prospects to move him.
3. I could see him landing with the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, or Astros. Just a guess.
4. Probably not a huge return. Maybe one top 15 pick and one top 30 pick from the other team’s system.
5. Well if they invest it in 2025 players it should be on cheap one year deals. This is not the time to be signing expensive free agents to long term deals. It wouldn’t bother me if they invested the majority of the money in minor league player development. That is going to be a good long term investment for us.
Anyone know why he skipped Winter Warm Up this year? That seemed strange. Cardinal Care’s big fundraising event for charities.
Probably because winter warm up is held at the end of Jan. in the barren, bitter and frigid winter of St. Louis, Mo. Arenado’s from the coastal paradise known as Newport Beach, California…Haha!
It’s imperative that the Cardinals find out if Gorman can rebound from last season. And it has to be at 3rd base. Our system has three other guys who are or will be better at second. It’s a whole other discussion what the possibilities are if somehow Gorman, Saggesse, Winn, Wetherholt, and Donovan are good to go in 2026. But Gorman is the biggest unknown at the present time. In my mind, Gorman has a much better chance at providing power at 3rd than Arenado. I don’t deny Arenado’s defensive value. But he just isn’t a fit with the 2025 team or beyond. There will be a market for him. Take what you can get. I know it’s a longshot for us to be competitive in 2026. But it’s impossible if we don’t use 2025 properly, and having Arenado around is a bad start.
1. I think if the Cards want a real return, they should eat as much as possible to make the prospect haul palatable. Maybe $10M per year? That would make the contract for the acquiring team 3 years and $42M. Very reasonable for a guy who will likely bounce back a bit in 2025. That could net us a couple of decent prospects.
2. I think the Cards will take on a contract to make that work. Someone with a shorter deal than Arenado who’s overpaid. Like a Matz.
3. The Dodgers just make too much sense.
4. I think we get one guy in the #6-10 of a team’s prospect list and another guy in the late teens.
5. I would like to see it reinvested in pitching. Give me a Bieber, Buehler, etc. Take on Bobby Miller if they’re willing to give him up. I want a rotation that has a shadow of ability to contend and hold things together to the next core. Worst case, they could be trade bait.
I can’t believe people really believe BDW is going to eat significant money to ship anyone out. He did not suddenly become someone else. Some, yes. A lot, no. If Arenado goes, it will take something more creative than writing a fat check. Folks will be howling because some favorite(s) went along with him.
I don’t think they have any high hopes for Gorman any more. He’s a min wage guy with an option year left, so he is useful. If they can move Arenado, they will likely stick Gorman there to run out the lame duck year, and then let Boom figure it out going forward. At this point, I don’t think Gorman’s trade value would be any more diminished by letting the rest of the league find out he is not a ML third baseman.
Bling, there are two reasons I think the Cardinals will pay down Arenado’s contract to make him go away:
1) They structured the trade with Colorado such that Colorado was paying $5 million in each of the last two years of the original deal
2) Arenado’s contract declines by $5 million per year in each of the last two years of his current dealIt would make the organization look incredibly bad if they were not willing to match the $5 million each from Colorado and Arenado.
In years past the Cardinals wouldn’t eat money because they were trying to contend and they knew they would have to spend it on someone else. They don’t have to worry about that now. They can spend $10M on Arenado in 2025 instead of $27M, replace him with a league minimum guy (Gorman), and pocket the $17M in savings. Why would BDW not want to do that?
I think Gorman is a 1B/DH type who can play 2B and 3B if needed to give others a rest. His defense hasn’t been progressing. His bat can absolutely play at 1B/DH when he has confidence, but that is a big if. I think you do have to give him a good chance to see what we have. He is one of our few players with middle of the order type bat potential. The Cards aren’t making the playoffs next year likely anyway, so it doesn’t hurt to see what Gorman has and if he can put it together.
Veb’s take on an Arenado trade.
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/11/14/24296170/what-is-nolan-arenados-trade-value
I see three teams that will be playoff contenders to which we can trade Arenado.
1). The Yankees – they need a 1B & either 2B or 3B. They can move Chissolm back to 2B. That opens up 3B for Arrenado. To avoid sending cash, the Cardinals could package with Burleson.
2). The Mariners – they want a more contact/less strikeout approach. Looking for both a 1B & 3B. Again, I would try to package with Burleson to avoid sending cash and increase prospect return.
3). The Royals – this is the least likely for Arenado to accept. This one would almost assuredly include the Cardinals sending cash.
As for the Dodgers – they have Max Muncy for $14.5 million in 2025, and have a $10 million club option in 2026. They are reportedly moving Mookie Betts to the infield, which is most likely 2B. They are reportedly pursuing Willy Adames for SS. I just don’t see how Arenado fits in Los Angeles.
Skip Schumaker played every game in the outfield up until 2008. Then, LaRussa moved him to 2B for 133 games in 2009 and
123 games in 2010, 95 games in 2011, 61 games in 2012. And he continued to play 2B, off and on, until he retiredI would expect a very smooth transition for Gorman at 1B. He adapted to 2B rather well and he’s a natural infielder. I would expect Gorman to be better at 1B than Willson or Burly.
Where’s their track record fielding hot corner batted balls? I’d easily give him the fielding range at 1B over either. It isn’t like we’re asking Walker to play 1B.
Edit-my biggest issue with Willson has always been his glove hand. It’s slow and he aint that great at picking balls in the dirt. TBD.
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