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But how close to the 100 loss team are we going to be on opening day, factoring in the subtractions that have/will occur? Lets say we are down Lynn, Gibson, Goldschmidt and Aredado? Does what is left look like a 100 loss team? What if a couple more guys are gone?
Even adding the loss of Helsley, the team has a decent floor. I don’t see them as a 100 loss team, although anything can happen if things get out of hand. On talent, I’d probably put the Cards at 75ish wins if those guys are gone. A lot depends on the arms in the upper minors.
Losing Lynn, Gibson, and Goldschmidt makes almost no difference. In fact, the team is probably slightly better due to the progress of Pallante and McGreevey and the addition of Fedde.
Adding Arenado as a loss hurts some as the Cardinals don’t have an equal substitute. Call that a loss of 3 wins.
Adding Helsley to the list really hurts. That’s 3-5 more wins at least if he pitches again like last season.
So call it 7 wins. That puts the team at 76 wins +/- 5.
For me, 2025 could go in almost any direction.
If guys like Walker and Gorman break out, if Burleson, Winn and Donovan continue on and don’t regress, if a couple of young starters blossom – this could actually be a wild card team.
On the other hand if the struggles continue for Walker and Gorman, if a couple of others regress, if the injury bug hits hard, if the young starters are still a year away – then yeah it could be a real long season in StL.
I am as unsure about this team for next year as I ever recall being.
I am with ZTR on this one. Gorman and Walker are the keys to this team. If the Cardinals are going to be a draft and develop team then you can’t have first round flops. You just can’t. The team is not going to spend enough to overcome their drafting mistakes.
If Gorman and Walker produce last year, along with Goldy and Arendao, then this team is a playoff team even with the makeshift rotation.
I view 2025 as a 75 win team in all likelihood. It is too early to talk about 2026 but that will probably be a rebuilding year as well.
I also have the same view as ZTR and gscottar – who knows where our club will finish in 2025. There are many examples of teams projected to be average or worse and they win big. We have two 100 wins teams in our history that were not looked at as being contenders heading into the season.
You just never know. We seem to be a .500ish or slightly worse team next year, especially if we jettison Helsley and Arenado. But stranger things have happened.
I’m sadly expecting poor D overall, which could be compounded by trading Arenado.
This is Offseason2 of fix the pitching, by attrition mostly in 25′, while much overdue developmental players take a foothold. If they flip Helsley & Fedde, the wins could plummet.
The 3 dynamic duos need to produce or be replaced, for the positional group to get better over time. Sink or swim time.
Anyone interested in a reality check could compare a likely opening day roster with the 2023 team that lost 91.
If Skip was managing this team instead of Oily I could probably convince myself that if the cards fell right they could be good.
It certainly appears that NA has not requested a trade. Clearly he knows the team would like to find a match for he and the teams liking. So he’s going to sit back and see what Bowtie can send him and if he doesn’t like it then he’ll just stick around. Makes it a tad awkward though.
It’s not all doom and gloom. What if they had extended Goldy last Spring for three seasons, at $20 million per season? That is a lot of do ray mi collecting interest.
They declined Lance Lynn’s option, saving $10 or $11 million.
They have a bunch of young players under control, and with relatively low salaries.
Matz and Mikolas (combined 2025 $30.5 million) both go off the books after 2025.
If they can somehow avoid any big financial blunders they will be sitting pretty, ……….
Red Sox a possible landing spot for Arenado?
If the #RedSox decide to move Rafael Devers off third base, could a deal with the #STLCards for Nolan Arenado make sense?https://t.co/asAK3b29O6 pic.twitter.com/sk7UoUIULh
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) November 24, 2024
He isn’t going to take on the OF’s contract but a deal could get done without him having to do that.
I have to admit I didn’t read the phone book length article. The only trade scenario articles I am apt read are Helsley related at this point.
They were just exploring multiple different scenarios with Boston.
There are also scenarios out there with with the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Phillies. It would not surprise me to see Arenado get moved.
Even diminished from his prime, I understand it would probably be an upgrade defensively at 3B for Boston.
1. How much money do you think the Cardinals should eat to trade Arenado? Cots shows him making:
– $32 million in 2025, with $5 million paid by Colorado
– $27 million in 2026, with $5 million paid by Colorado
– $15 million in 20272. How much do you think the Cardinals will actually pay down to trade Arenado?
3. Where do you see him landing?
4. What kind of prospect return are you expecting?
5. What should the Cardinals do with the savings (keep it, invest in players for 2025, invest in minor leagues, invest in stadium, etc)? I should probably add that you should give a rationale and budget for your choice.
1. Nothing. I’d eat an expiring 2025 contract, but that’s it. I’d rather them take on someone like Chris Taylor, Mitch Garver than just pay money out to someone else.
2. Matters the return they want. 3yr $64 million probably isn’t too far off what he’d get in free agency. But that is the Cardinals trading him for nothing basically. The more they pay the more prospects will be added in.
3. Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners. But I think he’s much more likely to waive the NTC for Dodgers and Yankees. Bregman free agency will play into it.
4. They are cutting payroll. The money will be saved or for minor league development.
I still say to the Dodgers for Taylor, Braiser, LHP Maddux Bruns(AA), and
RHP Patrick Copen (A+-AA). 2 hard throwers who have really good stuff. Maybe not the control to stick as SP but floor looks like at least back end RP. Taylor works as a RH UT for them Braiser replaces Kittredge as set-up. They are $17 million expiring in after 2025. If Bregman signs elsewhere, could turn into a 3 team trade with Houston getting Max Muncy.3yr $64 million probably isn’t too far off what he’d get in free agency
Thinking more about this. Jeimer Candelario got 3 years $45 million last off season. 4th year option that could make it 4 year $60 million. So Arenado getting 3 years and $60 million in free agency isn’t too far off I’d think.
At first blush, this seems a bit odd, since the most consistent part of Arenado’s value is his defense. But though Woo does not mention it, there appear to be few third base jobs open on contending teams. So offering to change positions seems a move by the Arenado camp to make him more appealing in trade.
In other words, my interpretation is that he wants out if possible. Actions speak louder than words.
Here's where the #STLCards stand on their preliminary trade talks with Nolan Arenado, who is open to playing first base if it will help create roster flexibility for a potential new team.
More here: https://t.co/RVy9Ktlt6c
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) November 26, 2024
Busch Stadium robs his power, and I can play 1B, sounds like advertising for a trade. I hope it works.
Holy Jeepers Batman!
If the Cardinals are seriously considering trading Arenado and Helsley and Graceffo to Boston for those two players from the Red Sox they have lost their minds. They better get a lot more – AND I MEAN ALOT MORE – than what I read. And if they do trade those three they better get a WHOLE LOT in return!
Surely since it’s from Newsweek that it can’t be right.
https://www.newsweek.com/sports/mlb/red-sox-add-260-million-gold-glover-all-star-closer-five-player-trade-pitch-1991881Here is another proposal I saw the other day.
Arenado + Helsley + Cash to the Yankees for Jasson Dominguez who is their number one prospect. I doubt the Yankees would do that but I guess it depends on how much cash was involved.
Time for my annual hot stove reminder to understand your rumor source and take it into account. I didn’t even know that Newsweek covered sports. Upon taking the clickbait, I found the Red Sox article is a regurgitation of an idea created by a blogger at FanSided. Likely not someone who is credentialed media or with agent contacts.
Anyone with a keyboard or a phone can and does cook up crazy trade scenarios that likely have zero foundation. And then others “report” on them like they are legitimate. They are fun for some to discuss, but if you are one of them, always remember to check from where the rumors originated before taking them seriously.
(As an aside, just this morning, I read a Jim Bowden column that was entirely focused on replying to fan trade ideas. Most answers were him explaining why one side or the other would probably not do the deals. For the inevitable Arenado question, his answer was different. He acknowledged that the contract will make it very difficult to work out a trade and pretty much left it at that.)
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