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Will it make you happy if I say asked for? And it took that long because of his ridiculous contract.
We all know he likely told him he wanted to be traded but both parties seemed in no rush to make it happen. Otherwise he would’ve sent his agent on a smear campaign if he demanded to be traded. Dude didn’t want to leave Colorado on bad terms. Likely this is a similar situation. He doesn’t want the fans to think he’s just stomping into Bowties office throwing the paperweights and family pictures off the desk. He has shown to be perfectly ok with waiting things out.
Oh and the only part this is a money thing to is the clubs that actually will take him on and the Redbirds. Demanding a club add on another year or money is an absolutely dumb take and even dumber by his representation if he wanted to be traded. Makes no sense at all for him to do this.
Or, it took 9 months to find an owner who would tack on an extra 15mil season to cancel out Nado’s NTC from COL.
“Evidence” has been mentioned twice. I submit the above.
Yea JJ everyone wants to speculate. Here’s my speculation about his current situation. He wants out, the Cardinals want him out. But nobody he wants to play for wants to pay his full salary because he’s a declining player and the Cardinals aren’t willing at this point to send enough money to get him moved. Stay tuned.
it took 9 months to find an owner who would tack on an extra 15mil season to cancel out Nado’s NTC from COL.
Why do you think he would want/need another million or two
Because a leopard doesn’t change its spots.
Appears Bling and I have another early bird in KCB, for our early morning epiphany’s, and he doesn’t have a NTC dragging behind him either!
I still think Arenado gets traded. Probably after Bregman signs. He probably declined the Astros because they traded Tucker and appear to be on the decline.
It is now public knowledge that the Cardinals were going to send $15M-$20M to the deal. That will peak the interest of other teams.
The fact that the Cardinals were willing to take the time to hammer out a deal with the Astros should signal to Arenado that THE CARDINALS DON’T WANT YOU HERE. Why would he want to play for a non-contending team who doesn’t want him? That seems like a strange way to finish out a career.
My money is on him eventually getting moved to a contender on his approved list.
From MLBTR
But the Cards were willing to include $15-20MM so that the Astros would only be on the hook for $40-45MM of that. The Athletic says the Cards were willing to eat $5MM per season for the rest of the deal, or exactly $15MM.
So, the Cardinals are willing to eat $5 million per year.
This brings Arenado’s cost to a new team in line with his recent performance. He will cost his new team:
– $22 million in 2025
– $17 million in 2026
– $10 million in 2027That’s about right. The Cardinals should be able to get some decent (not great) prospects, at least.
Did I ever tell you guys how much I hate WAR as a statistic? It violates just about every principle of statistical modeling.
Here is an example from 2024:
Luis Castillo – 1.8 WAR – 175.1 IP – 30 games – 3.64 ERA – 1.169 WHIP – 175K/47 BB
Erick Fedde – 5.6 WAR – 177.1 IP – 31 games – 3.30 ERA – 1.162 WHIP – 154K/18 BBWhy is Fedde worth 3.8 WAR more than Castillo?
Ask yourselves, why would the Cardinals tell Arenado’s agent to go out and try to find a deal – almost as if he was a free agent? If they already had several teams coming to them wanting Arenado, they would never do this. It would be unnecessary. To me, that means they are struggling to find a match and they either want help or they want Arenado’s agent to see that struggle directly. But then I go back to why? If the Cardinals hold the purse strings and they can choose how much money they are willing to offer the receiving team, then what help could Arenado’s agent possibly be? So I don’t think it’s to help. I think they want him to realize the lack of value other teams have for his client right now. But to what end? What does that gain them other than sympathy?
I’m just trying to ponder out loud to get a clearer picture into the murkiness. My only guess can be that interest is very low unless the Cardinals are willing to eat $20 million or more of his salary plus the deferred payments or something like that. Again, just stream of consciousness here. Other thoughts?
I do think the Cardinals planted the story about how much money they are willing to eat to drum up interest.
And other teams may use that public info to try to get them to increase that amount.
Increasing the first year by $5 million to get better prospects or extra prospects may be worth it.
For what it’s worth LACard – I far prefer FWAR for pitchers. In that case Fedde is like 3.4 vs Castillo at 2.3. That seems a lot more reasonable. BWAR isn’t good with certain pitchers.
BWAR isn’t good with certain pitchers.
WAR is a bad statistic because they make it whatever they want it to be. It’s a black box for a reason.
Minus 15mil from stl, Arenado is then owed 49mil by his acquiring club. Earlier in the thread Jnevel estimated 3/50mil, which now looks spot on.
jnevel said:
Ask yourselves, why would the Cardinals tell Arenado’s agent to go out and try to find a deal – almost as if he was a free agent?
My guess is that they did it to try to increase the number of teams in the hunt beyond the initial six specified by Arenado. The logic would be that if Arenado’s agent came to the Cardinals with interest from Seattle, for example, the implication is that Arenado would accept that team in trade. Otherwise, his agent would not come forward with it.
The alternative is that the Cardinals and the Mariners expend a lot of effort trying to work out the salary details, only for Arenado to nix the deal because Seattle is not among his acceptable destinations.
It feels like this is what may have happened with Houston, who have already lost Tucker and presumably Bregman this off-season. Shedding their best players likely isn’t the way to get onto Arenado’s list.
Obviously the Cardinals are going to have to eat money to move Arenado. We have known that all along. The Rockies had to eat money to move him to the Cardinals. Do we think his value is now higher? Of course not.
The Cardinals have publicly signaled they will eat 15M or 20M. That will be enough to do a deal. There will be a contender interested in doing that but most of these contenders are going for Bregman first. Once Bregman signs I think the Arenado deal gets done.
Yeah, I think that’s true for most teams.
But I think if the Yankees sign Christian Walker, they may trade for Arenado without waiting on Bregman. They had $80 million fall off the books this year, and have replaced that with about $47 million. Sign Walker, then see what you have to do to trade for Arenado.
I think you are right G. This declining prima donna has garnered enough attention. At this point I don’t care what the return is or what $ is sent as long as he is gone.
I will be glad to see him gone as well. It is time to move on.
Weren’t the Angels also on his approved list? So much for contenders only. They are one of the worst teams in the league. Yes I know he is from SoCal but still….
I wonder if a contender will shy away from a history of choking in post season.
No for a couple of reasons. First you play to get to the post season. The primary goal is to get to post season.
Second, small sample size. What a guy has done in past post seasons means nothing for the next post season.
I will be glad to see him gone as well. It is time to move on.
I agree on the second sentence as the Cardinals situation has changed over the last year, and we need to get younger and cheaper. We already moved on from Goldschmidt and need to do the same with Arenado.
However, I will miss him as I question whether we will be able to get around 4 WAR per year from the third base spot over the coming seasons. Nolan himself probably would not provide that given his recent trend, although I just get the sense he will come back some in 2025. But never-the-less, I enjoyed watching him here for four years. He was better out here in the Rocky Mountain West, where he was almost a nightly highlight reel on defense, but he has still been good. If he can tack on another 10-15 WAR over the remaining part of his career he should be Hall of Famer. Add a pennant winner and that would be icing on the cake.
Why Nolan Arenado Rejected Astros Trade
According to multiple team sources, Arenado did not want to rush into a decision and preferred to wait until more of the third-base market was established. This came as a surprise to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak,
Ooofff. Why is Mozeliak getting caught by surprise?
The uncertainty regarding Bregman, along with the Astros’ trade of outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, also gave Arenado pause regarding Houston’s direction, per a league source.
I can’t really find a good thread to put this in, so I’ll put it here. More from Katie’s article:
Mozeliak is facing pressure from ownership to reduce payroll, one source suggested, which would explain why he is relatively unwilling to take on a larger portion of Arenado’s remaining salary. The Cardinals will see a 25 percent reduction in their television rights fees after restructuring their regional sports network partnership with newly branded FanDuel Sports Midwest. The club is also preparing to see a drop in ticket sales next year.
There also remains a scenario where Arenado stays in St. Louis. Mozeliak would still need to lower payroll, which would suggest the possibility of other players not previously believed to be available suddenly becoming so.
Does anybody believe this is going to be a one year “reset”?
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