- This topic has 1,131 replies, 47 voices, and was last updated 6 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
This topic began on 11/10 2024 and this is comment #1100. It might be interesting to go back through all the opinions but who has the time.
Rats, I think there’s a good chance of it. We were about a 73 win talent team last year, subtracting Gray, Contreras and Arenado probably puts us around 67 wins. If Donovan and Romero are traded, as expected, we should expect 62-64 wins unless the development team really pulls a rabbit out of the hat with some guys.
Will we lose 100 games next year?
No. Not likely anyway. That would be worse than the 10-15% outcome. Expect a mid 70’s win total as constructed today. Losing Donovan probably pushes that to lower 70’s. The division potentially getting tougher might impact that by a couple more games but we will have to see where those other 4 teams end up. I could see the projection getting down to something like 71 wins if those things happen.
Maybe the question posed should be “Will we win 100 games this year?” Only about a one in a million chance of this occurring, but as the wily Lloyd Christmas said in the hit movie “Dumb & Dumber”, “so you’re telling me there’s a chance….yeah!” Stranger things have certainly happened.
ESPN has the Cardinals win projection at 73.0 before the Arenado trade. So knock off 1ish there, maybe. So 72. I think that’s pretty rosy. Even with the higher projection, only the Angels, Nats, White Sox and Rockies have worse projections.
Alpert…I am NOT being sarcastic.
Can you elaborate on what is nonsense then? Do you a) think the Cardinals will have a better record this year than last and be a playoff contender, or b) The Diamondbacks who were in the WS a couple years back with a great core are not in a better state than the Cardinals at the moment?
I am generally seen as being too optimistic and I think the team will be worse in 26 but I think by 27 they can be much better which others think is hog wash but I can understand why they think that. This year will absolutely be a transition year with such a high team turnover prepping for the future.
I could actual see the rotation being better than the 2025 version.
Losing Gray stinks but it isn’t like his actual numbers were good overall. May could easily put up better numbers.
Leahy, Fitts and Dobbins will be better than Pallante and Mikolas….Prediction: 2026 SP ERA will be better than 2025’s
Any comparison between gray and may is far fetched and in the stratosphere of wishful thinking. May has talent but that doesnt mean that much. All who make the mlb have talent. Hes never been able to become a full time starter due to his inconsistentcies and injuries. Gray had a good year last season,not great but its far better than what may has ever been for any length of time. I hope he does great and avoids injuries but its doubtful.
I don’t mean to overthink it but, their surnames rhyme and while May is probably my favorite month, gray is far from being my favorite color. Hey, it’s something to mull over during the extended weariness of winter…
Willie, bet ya a wooden nickel May puts up an ERA south of 4.28?
Wouldn’t be tough for Fitts, Leahy and Dobbins to be better than Pallante, Mikolas and Fedde.
Surprised there’s no chat going down about Jack Pell Martinez. Yes, the ERA is lofty, but his 110 K’s in just 77 innings at ASU last year is an eyebrow raiser. And I just love that when he’s wild, he’s wild inside. JP hit 3 times as many batters as he issued wild pitches during his collegiate career. From an intimidation standpoint, sometimes when you’re wild with a pitch, you’re better served by just whacking the batter. Anyway this fellow is an intriguing sort and could be a big time surprise.
If you take ALL the money the Cardinals included to trade away Gray, Contreras and Arenado, add it to the amount they will pay to the existing team obligations, they will spend around $150 million this year. Next year, there would be no more responsibility to fund any players that are no longer on the team. They currently have no one signed to a 2027 contract unless they pick up options.
They could really restructure the team quickly, now.
Maybe there’s an industry standard, as COL has paid us. Cots shows 13mil due in 2027, by their accounting.
I don’t know how they handle it. I’m just looking at it that they COULD fund it all this year without an issue. That would allow them a complete clean slate going forward.
Well, at least due to our bad lottery luck this year we can end up in the top 6 next year. I’m looking forward to seeing the young guys play more this year than last years weird mash-up of veterans and kids. Looking for some of these young guys like Winn to start taking the lead in the clubhouse with the old guys gone. I still wouldn’t mind seeing a guy like Marte signed as rh OF bat/clubhouse mentor role.
For 2026 the Cardinals will spend $20M on Gray, $14.3M on Arenado, and $4M on Contreras.
For 2027 the Cardinals will spend $9M on Arenado and $4M on Contreras.The Mets just gave $126M to Bichette to play 3B. The only problem is that he has never played 3B before. Seems kind of risky to me.
forsch, here is my thought. It feels highly unlikely (but not impossible) that the Cardinals would pull future expense into 2026, adding to their already assumed loss for the year. Is there some accounting benefit to this?
The Cardinals are not paying all of the Nado and Contreras money in 2026.
Guys, I understand that they are not paying it all this year. I am saying that they COULD and start from a clean payroll slate. $150 million is still less than their total payroll from a couple of years ago.
Brian, the benefit would be that for strictly cash purposes, they would start 2027 with no obligations for players no longer on the team. They would not need to reduce the 2027 payroll because of dead payroll.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.