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Arenado will be 34 at the start of the ’25 season so he’s running short on time if he’s at all interested in a piece of championship jewelry. The fact is that he’s played in only 8 post-season games in his 12 season career, all of which have held the relatively small time distinction of being either a WC or NLDS game. And 6 of those 8 games have been placed up on the board in the office in NY as losers. I’d say his career undoubtedly warrants induction into the baseball HOF, but at this juncture that career certainly won’t include merit for anything beyond a paltry or lackluster career experience in the post-season. I’d also say that if he indeed cares much at all about anything that resembles genuine post-season prestige, he needs to latch-on with a team like the Dodgers or Yankees.
So, 1td – this is a quote I saw last week:
Nolan Arenado has won more postseason games as a Colorado Rockie (1) than as a St. Louis Cardinal (0).
And yes, I agree. If he wants to win a WS, it most likely has to be with the Yankees, because he does not fit on the Dodgers.
We all know the big hang up in moving Arenado is how much money the Cardinals will have to eat.
There are some alternatives. Trades where the Cardinals take a contract back. I know it’s been mentioned taking Chis Taylor’s contract back from the Dodgers due to a reporter suggesting it, but the Dodgers just aren’t a fit for Arenado right now. There are three teams that are, though only one is on Arenado’s 6-team list.
I’ll start with the trade I would love to see happen, but won’t, because the Cardinals front office can’t walk and chew gum at the same time:
Seattle Mariners:
Cardinals trade Arenado, Burleson & Fedde for Castillo and prospects.Why it works:
Seattle reportedly has about $10-15 million of room to fill 1B & 3B. They are shopping Castillo to fill those two needs and lower payroll. They also want an MLB-ready pitcher back as part of the deal.Arenado is owed $27 million. Castillo $24.15 million. So far, not looking good for either team’s objective of shedding payroll.
But, Burleson is really best suited as a 1B/DH, and he is now blocked at 1B and should never be used in the OF. With Burleson, the Mariners fill their hole at 1B.
Fedde fills the void created by the Mariners trading Castillo and increases the prospect return coming back to the Cardinals. Also lowers the Cardinals payroll.
So, we’ve filled the two holes the Mariners currently have, plus the void created by the trade. Mariners have increased payroll by roughly $11 million, which is presumably within their budget.
On the Cardinals side, we get back a starting pitcher to replace Fedde. Castillo pitched to a 3.64 ERA last year.
Anyway, because he is signed multiple years, the Cardinals could keep him for when Matz & Mikolas fall off the books next year. Or they can flip him for prospects, presumably without eating any money due to the way the pitching market has been this year and the substantial interest the Mariners are receiving. The second option would probably be the direction the Cardinals would go.
Either way, the Cardinals boost the farm system and lower payroll, and the Mariners have a team ready to compete within their budget.
Yankees:
Originally, this was the same premise. Package Burleson and Arenado for prospects so the Yankees can fill two holes.But, they are probably not enamored with Burleson at 1B. They reportedly want Christian Walker.
Before they traded Cortes to the brewers, they were rumored to be shopping Marcus Stroman and his $18 million contract.
This deal is less good for the Cardinals, as Stroman pitched to a 4.31 ERA last year, and has a vesting option if he reaches 140 innings. Both of which make him harder to flip for prospects.
But the Cardinals could flip Fedde for prospects if they took back Stroman. And they could hope Stroman pitches well enough they can flip him at the deadline.
Finally, the Mets. The only team on Arenado’s wish list.
They have Starling Marte, who they are trying to unload. Cohen has already stated he will pay down Marte’s contract to move him.Cardinals could take Marte back as part of a trade, use him in LF to replace Donovan (assuming he moves to 2B), and use Nootbaar in CF, since Walker will likely be in RF. Or, the Cardinals can just use him as a 4th OF.
Marte’s defense has declined to Burleson levels, so this is less than ideal. But he only has one year on his contract which makes him less risky than Stroman in terms of financials.
This makes a couple assumptions that may or may not be true.
1. Arenado has only confirmed 6 teams he’s willing to play for but his agent suggests the list is much longer. So there could be lots of other options.
2. The Cardinals have said Contreras will be 1B/DH but haven’t said anything about Burleson. Burleson may still be the primary at 1B against right handed pitching. In this scenario, Contreras is the primary DH.
I do think the Seattle trade you proposed is interesting though.
I think the Yankees, Phillies, and Astros are the top 3 three landing spots for Arenado. The Mets could be in the picture depending on what they do with Alonso. I imagine this won’t get sorted out until Bregman signs because that could impact his potential suitors.
I can’t see Bill taking on the Castillo contract, or Castillo accepting a trade to StL.
Marte for Arenado straight up is a budget gift if the bank in NY obliges.
The Yankess have a bad contract in DJ LeMahieu but that would be over two years, which is not preferable.
Marte only has one year remaining which would be better and we need a RH OF bat. Our current OF options are:
Walker RH
Noot LH
Siani LH
Donovan LH
Burleson LH
Koperniak LHNot sure about bad contracts on the Astros. Lance McCullers Jr. is a bad contract but the Cardinals aren’t taking him. He has missed the last two years with injury. Maybe we could take their newly acquired 3B Isaac Paredes.
LAs proposed deal bundling Arenado to the Mariners and ending up with Castillo and his contract is interesting. It points up that what kind of a deal Bill OKs for NA will tell us what we need to know about how competitive they want to be this year. It would also tell us that the revenue stream is solidifying enough to take on that contract.
It also points up the issue with bundling off your ML roster instead of the farm. Between NA and Burleson, they had 1,230 PAs last year. That is a lot of ML PAs to cover somehow. They produced 141 runs and 149 RBIs. Covering that will be a tall order, and the team can’t afford to score even less this year, unless <70 wins is acceptable. There is also Burleson’s 550 innings in the outfield to cover somehow, remembering we are short of outfielders already, and if we are minus NA and Burleson, it is not realistic to pencil Donovan in as an everyday outfielder as he will surely be helping out on the infield quite a bit or all the time..
Interesting…
NEWS: Nolan Arenado blocks potential trade to Astros, sources tell me, @brianmctaggart & @JohnDenton555
FULL STORY: https://t.co/zPtreNywha
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) December 18, 2024
That is interesting. Maybe he still sees SoCal as an opportunity, and/or sees the Astros as trending downward.
Rockies fans wanted Arenado to stay, but management was too cheap to keep him even though they negotiated the deal.
I think Nolie ends up in pinstripes. The Yankees need to get something back after losing Soto and will be motivated. Former Cardinals seem to do well there, and Arenado is a prime comeback candidate so I think this will go well for him. Hopefully it does for us too.
Rockies fans wanted Arenado to stay, but management was too cheap to keep him even though they negotiated the deal.
Arenado demanded a trade in Denver. At least he didn’t put up a season like he did here in 2024.
He said he would waive the NTC to certain teams. He didn’t say he would do it for free. How big the list is depends upon how much cash slides across the table. Enough cash and the list is very big indeed. Not enough cash, it is very less big.
Why do you think he would want/need another million or two to join a team he has no interest in – when he has already made $183 million over his career? Why not accept what he says – that he wants to play for a contending team, but not any contending team? Seems pretty straight forward.
In other words, until I see any evidence to the contrary, I would guess the holdup is not about money to Arenado.
P.S. As a reminder, the original rumored list of teams acceptable to Arenado did not include the Astros. They were Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Phillies, Mets and Red Sox.
Arenado demanded a trade in Denver. At least he didn’t put up a season like he did here in 2024.
If he demanded a trade (snicker) then why did it take over 9 months to happen? Demand seems a little strong.
Best guess is that he saw the trade of Kyle Tucker for Peredes as a sign that Bregman wasn’t returning. As we all know he was willing to make a jump across the diamond to get a deal done. Best guess is he’d like playing for the Astros and his championship aspirations with Bregman than Peredes. I guess the Astros were on his list originally and they got pulled.
I don’t see why anyone is mad at him. He wants the right fit and maybe he feels if something doesn’t work out to his liking there’s always an in season trade. No rush from his end.
It’s getting more likely he stays. Most of the other contenders don’t need him – not unless the Cardinals really pay down that contract.
If it were really about Busch Stadium suppressing his power, the Crawford Boxes would have been a natural fit.
He said he would waive the NTC to certain teams. He didn’t say he would do it for free. How big the list is depends upon how much cash slides across the table. Enough cash and the list is very big indeed. Not enough cash, it is very less big.
I see a lot of conjecture here without any basis of evidence. The Cards are not going to pay him under the table to waive his no trade clause. Arenado negotiated that in no trade clause in his contract and rightfully deserves it per the deal. It may be an inconvenience to the club, but the Cards also knew he had a no trade clause (and would have gotten it by 10 and 5 rights anyway) when they acquired Arenado.
I still think there is a chance he sticks with the team at least until the deadline or next off-season. His most expensive contract year will be paid down/off.
I was really annoyed with Arenado’s results last year, but he is still a good defender. I also think the results make sense after seeing he worked on going oppo all off-season last year. He needs to go back to his strengths and focus on pulling the ball into the air. If he does that, he may have a decent surplus value even by the deadline
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