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Arenado’s true cost to STL is $58M for the next 3 years
2025 $32M = COL $5M + STL $27M (present value $24M)
2026 $27M = COL $5M + STL $22M (present value $19M)
2027 $15MWhat do I mean by present value? Arenado has $6M deferred in both 2025 and 2026. This money is deferred without interest about 14 years. The Cards must fund that in 2025 and 2026 at 5% and the simple rule of 72 says money doubles in value at 5% in 14 years. So the Cards will fund the $6M deferred in 2025 with $3M and the $6M deferred in 2026 with another $3M. So in each year the present value of the future $6M is $3M.
Based on Woo’s reporting, it seems likely to me that Arenado will play out his contract with STL. I’m okay with that. Contreras and Gray are both owed more money than Arenado over the next 3 years.
By the time Bloom takes over, Arenado will be owed only $34M more. That’s hardly going to handicap the new POBO.
Arenado declined the HOU deal. The FO declined the NYY deal (Stroman). No difference. Waiting for 2 sellers to agree with an unknown buyer. What’s the problem Mo?
Disagree BikeMike. Post season performance means something.
It only means something for that particular series. And when a guy’s career is finished it can be part of his overall value in assessing his career. But it has no meaning at all on possible future outcomes, and it seems you are assuming Arenado would never be good in post season if he gets there in the future.
His thousands of regular season appearances carry much more weight than 35 post season appearances. Making his post season an indicator of the future is like taking one week of games out of an entire career and using that to assess a player’s value.
Had he had say, 200 post season plate appearances his numbers would likely be better. If he had 500, his numbers would probably be about where his average regular season numbers are, possibly a bit lower due to the probability of better average pitching for post season teams.
There are a plethora of things to blame Mo for. It is a long list. But it is becoming apparent to me the lack of Arenado trade is not one of them. Sure he could have taken Stroman back and I probably would have done it but I can understand why the Cardinals didn’t. The Houston thing just plain stinks. You bust your gut to find a team willing to take Arenado with the Cardinals only paying $15M over three years, which is surprising, then have the player back out even though he had previously agreed to be traded to that team.
I get that Arenado may have been spooked by the Tucker trade but so what? Houston wasn’t going to re-sign Tucker long term anyway. That is why traded they traded him. The AL West is about as big of a joke as the NL Central. The Angels and A’s are disasters, the Mariners are very average, and the Rangers are up and down. Houston will win that division two out of the next three years if not all three and have a chance to make a playoff run. He isn’t getting that in STL.
Arenado: “Back out”
You need a “yes” I will allow that trade, followed by a no, for that scenario to be true.
From your link yesterday is that what was said? A yes, and then a no, just to be accurate.
I don’t think he specifically said he would accept that specific trade. He said he wanted to think about it. But he did have Houston on the approved list. Why make a list at all if it is irrelevant? What else is the PBO supposed to do? If the guy makes a list and then says only kidding what else can you do?
Providing a list for the owner, is NOT accepting a trade, its never worked that way. You know better. There are more front office apologists here than I realized.
Nope. I am not on Team Mo or Team Nolan.
In fact I very much look forward to the day when neither are in this organization. Hopefully one exits by August 1 and the other by November 1. This whole fiasco of an offseason has been dominated by the two of them and their nonsense.
Gscottar -Why do you always pat the Friday Curtis Bishop articles? These are some of the worst written articles in the history of VEB and they continuously get crucified in the VEB comments by all their regular posters as AI generated nonsense.
Gscottar -Why do you always pat the Friday Curtis Bishop articles? These are some of the worst written articles in the history of VEB and they continuously get crucified in the VEB comments by all their regular posters as AI generated nonsense.
Because I agreed with this one.
Is this an early April Fool’s joke?
BREAKING: The #STLCards have reengaged the #Astros about a potential trade involving star third baseman Nolan Arenado, multiple sources tell MLB .com. Arenado, 33, used his no-trade power to kill a deal between St. Louis and Houston back in mid-December.https://t.co/qbpzmQ6Yjx
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) February 22, 2025
Ah nothing like floating something when you have a game going on. Like when we’d get the phantom moves or trades in the middle of the night they always seem to do. The Cardinal Way.
“The Astros had no top 100 prospects until they traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, adding Chicago’s 2024 first-rounder, Cam Smith, who of course is now Houston’s new No. 1 prospect. It’s just not a very good system, with nobody I would comfortably project as more than a fourth starter or a utility infielder/extra outfielder after Smith.”
Keith Law in his rankings of the Astros farm system in The Athletic a few weeks ago.
Don’t see any reason to be excited about him going to the Astros.
Katie Woo threw cold water on it.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6153242/2025/02/22/nolan-arenado-trade-cardinals-astros/
I saw that Brian. I feel like there is a competition between the beat writers to get the scoop. Based on history I would say Woo has the better information.
Greyghost, the strength of the Astro farm system is not a big deal. The primary objective of a potential Arenado trade is salary relief, not getting a big haul of prospects.
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