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(Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Angels)
I thought it was the Mets, not the Yankees.
I think I would rather take on the Stroman contract.
I don’t want Stroman, and I think adding Stroman creates more problems. Rotation is probably Gray, Fedde, Pallante, Matz, Mikolas. And they have McGreevy deserving of a spot, then add Graceffo, Matthews, Hence, Robberse, Roby and lesser Munoz, Rom, Bedell all fighting for spots and in the AAA rotation or just out of it. At least with LeMahieu there could be a roster spot for him for the year and if NYY pay off part of his 2026 contract then the potential for trading him could go up. I don’t want LeMaheiu taking up a bench spot either, but at least he’s not blocking anyone really deserving. He would keep 2 of Helman, Scott, and Fermin in AAA, possibly Saggese if they opt for giving him regular AB’s early and use a bench of LeMahieu, Helman, Scott. But then is Helman able to be the back-up SS? But I also see the intent of NYY is offloading Stroman. Maybe they can find a 3rd team to get involved, because I don’t want him in STL.
This is why the Cards are in this position…. Calamity John Mozeliak He’s more to be pitied than laughed at. What a disaster he has created.
I didn’t say I WANTED Stroman. I said it would be a more preferable contract to absorb than Lemahieu. Lemahieu was absolutely terrible in 2024 putting up an OPS of .527.
Stroman would only be a short term issue. I wouldn’t worry about blocking the younger starters. There will be injuries and by August 1 Sonny Gray will most likely be the only starter remaining from opening day. The rest will be flipped.
Good job Mo. Excellent work this winter. Priority one, two, and three.
#STLCards POBO John Mozeliak on Nolan Arenado: “I think the mindset right now is he's likely going to be a part of our club. … I mean, I definitely feel like it's a better chance than not (he remains a Cardinal on Opening Day).”
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) February 13, 2025
As soon as Arenado vetoed the trade to Houston I knew he wasn’t going to get traded. No dropped the ball but Nado played a role in this wreck
Over 4 seasons, Nado has been worth 17.3 FWAR for the Cardinals at a cost of $115 million to the team after the Rockies’ rebates. He is still owed $64 million from the Cardinals. If we assume the Cardinals are going to have to eat $20 million of that, then their total cost for Arenado would be $135 million. That’s $7.8 million per WAR, which is a very reasonable return on investment, although not as much as you’d ideally want as a mid-market team. Since they essentially gave up nothing to get Arenado other than a very mediocre Gomber (everyone else combined for negative value), this deal ends up as an overall ok deal, but not really a win or loss for the team. They may also recoup a prospect or two, but the odds they are impactful is slim.
The other option is just to keep him and keep paying him. He’s going to have to be worth around 3.5 FWAR this season to make that an ok investment, then 2.5 next season and around 1.5 in 2027. Again, not really a good investment for a mid-market team that really needs to hit big on these kinds of deals, but certainly not bad either. At this point, Nolan is probably going to be worth around exactly what the Cardinals are set to pay him the next 3 years. They can keep him and hope he helps them compete or throw money at making sure he moves on and try to reinvest the remainder with an opportunity they think is better. I’d personally rather move on, but I don’t want to do so if we are just giving him away so if no one wants him at the Cardinals price point, then just keep him. I think that’s where the team is at.
The Rockies will be out $96 million over the course of this deal (less pro-ration from 2020 season). Their collective FWAR from Nolan is 6.7. They also got a combined 4.3 FWAR from 4 seasons of Gomber for about $12 million and negative value from a couple partial seasons of Montero and the other players never got to the majors.
So yes, the Rockies definitely got fleeced as the Nado deal looks horrific for them.
If he really tanks while wearing a Cardinal uniform in ’25, it might not be too pleasant an experience for both Arenado and the whiz kid Redbird bosses.
It is at the point where you just hope this falls into the “sometimes the best trades are the ones you do not make” category.
I truly feel bad for the guy
14NyquisT – Get a grip on yourself, man. Arenado is guaranteed to collect $74M over the next 3 years. And you feel sorry for him? If he retires at the end of those thee years, he’ll still be only 36 years old. If he still wants to work after that, and if he can find a craftsman that is willing to train him, he could learn a trade and go to work like all the other 36 year olds in the world. Or, he could even go to college and learn how to do something else that the world actually needs.
Winning is the only thing that would wash the stink off of this whole fiasco.
So just making the playoffs would be enough?
I seem to recall from several posters here and on the other site saying the team is only committed to getting into the postseason and don’t do what it takes to do anything else.
So just making the playoffs would be enough?
Where in my post did it say playoffs? Winning. An exiting young team that keeps me up at night instead of nodding out by the 7th.
The Stroman rumors didn’t bring enough immediate 2025 salary relief for stl, initially, but has that changed? If you are going to pay Nado in 2025, there is no immediate salary relief.
The scenario GS mentions does drop significant salary, it’s just not immediate, either.
Using LA’s age related decline value of 16mil aav, if you will, over 3 seasons brings us back to square one.
LA’s estimated 48mil field value of Nado’s next three seasons, plus 15mil cash by Bill, is 63 of the 64mil owed by StL.
The aging curve is that players lose about 0.5 WAR per year. So, if he is worth $16 million this year, he would be worth $12 million next year and $8 million in 2027, for a total of $36 million. Which, would require the Cardinals pony up about $28 million, which is a little more than half of what they got from the Rockies for an in-his-prime Arenado.
I don’t want Stroman, and I think adding Stroman creates more problems. Rotation is probably Gray, Fedde, Pallante, Matz, Mikolas. And they have McGreevy
Acquiring Stroman is easier to spin out of than Arenado’s contract.
Stroman is two years, $37 million max, Arenado is three years, $64 million. So, $27 million reduction off the top.
Second point is, Stroman’s contract only vests in the second year if he pitches more 140 innings or more. You have the unique proposition that it actually benefits you if he gets injured early in the year.
The third point is, Stroman had a 5.31 ERA and gave up 15 HR at Yankee stadium with is short porch, vs 3.09 ERA and 4 HR on the road. His road ERA would have made him the ace of the Cardinals staff.
The fourth point is, you can trade Fedde for prospects, reduce payroll another $7.5 million, and get assets that will help you in 2026 and beyond.
The fifth point is, you can send out $5 million in year one, and a conditional $5 million in year two, and try to trade Stroman to a team still searching for starting pitching. Instead of being out a minimum of $15 million to trade Arenado, the Cardinals might only be out $5 million to trade Stroman.
Of course, all of the above requires the Cardinals admitting they were the fools when they rejected the trade proposal early in the offseason, not the Yankees who proposed it.
Okay, I am putting this here as I don’t want to start another thread and it is the best fit thread-wise.
I am a Cardinal fan for almost 60 years. I don’t closely follow other teams, so serious question.
Has there ever been a team whose management more needs to SHUT UP than the present day Cardinals?
Bill DeWitt – 6-7 years ago, we can push the luxury tax if we need to for the right player. Sorry, they were fools to believe Stanton wanted to come here and Heyward WAS HERE and didn’t want to be here. I DO believe Price wanted to be here and would have had a much better career here. A lefty in Fenway for a few dollars more?
John Mozeliak – A, B & C are trading Nolan Arenado. (Amongst many others.)
Oli Marmol – Public shots at Wilsson, TO, Matthew Liberatore. Am I missing any others?
Seriously, did they miss the classes on saying a lot without really saying anything?
#STLCards POBO John Mozeliak said if Nolan Arenado wants a trade he must expand the list of teams he would be traded to beyond five. That list drops to four with the #RedSox out.
Mo: “I think it would have to open up a little bit more, yes. We’ve exhausted the others.”
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) February 13, 2025
We can try to justify Arenado’s worth all we want. The bottom line is that a rebuilding team doesn’t need a player like him on the roster. Not only is he a drag on the payroll he is blocking Gorman from playing 3B everyday and we need to find out once and for all if he is our future or not. We 100% know that Arenado is not our future.
Him selfishly blocking the trade to Houston was dumb. Apparently he thought other teams were clamoring for his services and they obviously aren’t. If Arenado’s contract isn’t vastly underwater then why aren’t other teams jumping at the opportunity to get him. We can spew all the WAR nonsense we want but the market says otherwise. Of course Mo didn’t help matters by publicly outlining our strategy in specific detail ruining any leverage we might have had.
Now we have a player coming to camp who knows that the organization obviously doesn’t want him around. That is not going to bode well for team chemistry and morale no matter how they desperately try to spin it. It is just a complete fiasco.
Don’t worry, Johnny and his whiz-kid manager are one step ahead of eveyone else…Gorman can man up as the everyday 3B’man and they can use Arenado as a RH bat off the bench…
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