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One logjam has been broken!
Bregman to Red Sox. $120M, 3 years. 2 optouts
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 13, 2025
Boras tricked the Red Sox into paying Bregman $40M/yr. Ha!
Bregman’s stats are really good, almost as impressive as the stats that Arenado brought with him to St. Louis. Bregman’s stats are not HOF stats.
$40 million a year??? Wow that is way over what Bregman by all estimations deserved annually. Arenado is a bargain in comparison.
That means Arenado stays in St. Louis. At least until the trade deadline. And if they are in the hunt he won’t be dealt.
It does not necessarily mean Arenado stays in St. Louis. How about a Nado-Goldy reunion with the Yankees?
Bregman agrees with the #RedSox — always Boston’s preference over trading for #STLCards third baseman Nolan Arenado as reported by MLB .com.
With the Red Sox out of the mix, the Cardinals expect to ramp up Arenado trade talks with the #Yankees , per a source. https://t.co/xu832pChv9
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) February 13, 2025
Yankees, who? Mo said he hoped one of the “underbidders” for Bregman would take Arenado.
Nolan Arrenado can now cross the Boston Red Sox off his list. The Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs were the other finalists for Alex Bregman.
The Blue Jays were never in and Bregman wasn’t going back to Houston.— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 13, 2025
The only way they get him dealt is if they eat a bunch of salary and take some low level prospects and it doesn’t appear they want to eat a bunch of cash. Otherwise the deadline appears likely. Better hope he has a bit of a rebound if you’re the brass.
I am concluding that Arenado is grossly overpaid. I didn’t think his salary was THAT far out of whack – but it must be.
He’s getting paid for the player he used to be not who he is now.
If a trash can banger can get a 40mil aav, Nado’s 16.3mil aav, after Bill pays down 15mil, is not out of line. Finding a suitable team is another story. I still like the Angels as a dark horse.
Arenado is not “grossly overpaid.” At his full salary, he’s slightly overpaid. He’s basically an even wash with his salary as the Cards are paying it. If the Cards are paying down some money, he’s easily a surplus player. He’ll put up 3ish WAR this year and that’ll be worth what he’ll make.
The issue is that the Cards telegraphed that they were desperate to save a few bucks and “rebuild” so teams know they can just wait it out until Mo/BDW get desperate and throw a few more bucks in, or accept nothing in return.
Arenado is not “grossly overpaid.”
Would you really be willing to pay $32 million for a 2.5 WAR player? A player with a .719 OPS?
Yes, Arenado is grossly overpaid at this point in his career. The average $/WAR is about 8 million. That would imply Arenado is worth about $20 million, assuming no further declines. But we have to assume further declines due to the aging curve, which put’s his value down in the $15-16 million range.
Bregman’s deal does not change Arenado’s value.
On the one hand, you can say is Bregman really worth nearly double Arenado?
But on the other hand, you have to look at how the rest of the league values players.
There is still one deal out there that removes one year and 42% of Arenado’s contract, and frees up third base for Gorman.
It would have been much better had the Cardinals taken it at the beginning of the offseason, as they could have focused on rebuilding for the future rather than merely trying to dump salary.
Using LA’s age related decline value of 16mil aav, if you will, over 3 seasons brings us back to square one.
LA’s estimated 48mil field value of Nado’s next three seasons, plus 15mil cash by Bill, is 63 of the 64mil owed by StL.
It’s a hard transaction, due to Nado’s KNOWN no-trade clause, but the numbers aren’t out-of-whack by Bill.
I don’t know if Detroit is actually in on Arenado, but I think they should be. They have a good young team in the rise and really need a 3B. I believe they are the best in the AL Central and Arenado would help push that gap a little further.
Yankees, who? Mo said he hoped one of the “underbidders” for Bregman would take Arenado.
Mo says a lot of things. He has tied himself up in a pretzel so many times this winter I can’t count. Heck send Arenado to the Cubs then. I don’t care as long as they get rid of him.
Why would we want to trade a player who may very well hit .285 with 30 homers and 110 rbi’s for us? And perhaps lead us to the NL Central crown?
That means Arenado stays in St. Louis. At least until the trade deadline. And if they are in the hunt he won’t be dealt.
Rat, for the last couple of years you have mentioned numerous times how Arenado was a choker in pressure situations (which he is). I am surprised to hear now that you are adamant that the Cardinals keep him.
I am also curious as to why you or anyone else thinks the Cardinals are going to compete for the division. The last two years they have won 71 and 83 games respectvely. They have done nothing this winter to get better yet we are now contenders? That doesn’t compute with me. I think we are closer to last place than first place.
We also, according to several on this board, have the worst manager in all of MLB. So we are now a contender? Hmmmmm…. I don’t think so.
Gscottar, we’ll put! We are not gonna be a contender for anything this year, period! I can see trading Nolan, IF, we can get some quality prospects! If not keep him and let him play! I don’t know what he will do but he will be better than Gorman! The only thing putting Gorman at 3rd assures is is a record breaking number of K’s in a season! He can’t hit, do we need to prove to can’t field either! I am very hopeful about our young pitchers! But we need hitters! Gorman ain’t gonna be one!
Nolan can’t be happy coming to the STL camp with all this over his head. I truly feel bad for the guy. His big mistake was signing with the Cards in the first place. His prime seasons were wasted playing at Busch.
Yankees are by far the most interesting team likely to have interest in Arenado, if he’ll waive to go there. I don’t think he was on the list of 6 reported. They also have a need for LH reliever. I still think selling high on Romero and including him with Arenado to sweeten the deal, probably cover around $15 million of Arenado’s 2025 contract, but not any future money. Return still wouldn’t be great but maybe could pull Ben Hess (high strikeout, iffy command 2024 first round pick out of Alabama and originally from Moline, IL), or Bryce Cunningham (2024 2nd round pick out of Vanderbilt) neither of which have thrown an inning in pro ball. Maybe Gage Ziehl (2024 4h round pick our of Miami) who also hasn’t pitched in pro ball. And maybe another 1-2 lower level lesser known guys to take a flyer on.
Do the Cardinals even entertain the idea of taking on LeMahieu and having the Yankees include money instead? He’s making $15 million in 2025 and 2026. Cardinals could pay him in 2025 essentially eating $15 million of Areanado for 2025. Then have the Yankees pay $5-10 million of LeMahieu in 2026. I don’t know that the Cardinals have room for him on the roster though is the hang up. Helman does have options and could be sent to AAA, or Helman serves as the primary backup CF with Scott in AAA if they were to do it.
His big mistake was signing with the Cards in the first place
His second big mistake was not accepting the trade to the Astros, assuming he wants to play for a winner.
Yankees are by far the most interesting team likely to have interest in Arenado, if he’ll waive to go there. I don’t think he was on the list of 6 reported.
According to John Denton the Yankees are on the Arenado approved list that Mo has to work with. (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Angels)
The #RedSox never wavered off their desire to sign Alex Bregman over trading for #STLCards third baseman Nolan Arenado, and they landed the free-agent late Wednesday.
Now, a frustrated Cardinals front office must find another trade partner for Arenado.https://t.co/v5Zp08PzRq
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) February 13, 2025
Do the Cardinals even entertain the idea of taking on LeMahieu and having the Yankees include money instead?
I think I would rather take on the Stroman contract. He is owed $18M for 2025. He has a vesting option for 2026 but the Cardinals could trade him before that vests. He could give us decent innings for four months then flipped at the deadline. The Cardinals would save $9M in 2025 then owe nothing on Arenado in 2026 and 2027.
gscottar said…..
Rat, for the last couple of years you have mentioned numerous times how Arenado was a choker in pressure situations (which he is). I am surprised to hear now that you are adamant that the Cardinals keep him.
Yes, he isn’t very good in clutch situations. With the game on the line I do not want him in the batters box. But I still think he is capable of putting up some pretty good numbers. Heck, I’d settle for .265 with 22 dingers and 83 rbi’s.
And let’s face it, the NL Central is still a weak division. Just about any one of the five teams could steal that division.
r/Esteemed Rat
Any interest the #Yankees have in trading for #STLCards 3B Nolan Arenado is tied to New York being able to offload Stroman, a connection reported by MLB .com since mid-December. That remains true today with the Yankees still evaluating the cost of a potential Arenado acquisition. https://t.co/PsiExBT1RQ
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) February 13, 2025
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