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Still seeing all the reporting and speculation about Sonny Gray being traded. I just can’t wrap my head around how that helps the Cardinals in the long run. It looks like it costs the owners a lot of money to be able to get a quality prospect. Then, they suffer at the gate with a non-competitive team.
I don’t really see a trade of Gray sitting well with DeWitt. He’s going to have to eat at least $10 million just to facilitate a trade, and spend at least $15 million to backfill. That leaves $10 million to “negotiate.”
As for suffering at the gate, in typical years, the Cardinals get 70% of their ticket sales before the season starts. I imagine the last two years, it has been much higher.
The only thing I see significantly influencing the turnstiles this year is if Bloom is able to pull off some deals that make the Cardinals legitimately better both in the short-term and long-term, and the Cardinals become much more FUN to watch.
“It looks like it costs a lot of money to be able to get a quality prospect”
His FA value is not the 1/40mil remaining on his contract that has been heavily backloaded and included a significant buyout, at his signing.
He’s worth his 25mil AAV, but the remaining 15mil is STL’s decision on the structuring of the contract. Of course it will cost a lot of money. The backloaded “Bill” has come due.
jj, that is exactly why it makes no sense to trade him. Financially, the team pays a lot of money to move him. Baseball sense, the team gets nothing to help it this year and has a starting pitching staff that could be the worst in the major leagues.
I agree with forsch. The only way it makes sense to trade Gray is if you’re attempting to have the worst possible team next year. The savings would have to be used on a pitcher making $20M plus next year, thus canceling out what you may save on the trade. They won’t get a useful prospect back. Hard pass on trading Gray for me.
It’s the risk involved in keeping Gray. We could pay him and play him, but how does that help the rebuild?
If he goes down w/injury before the deadline? If his slg% allowed, and 2nd half whip reappear, but earlier in 2026? He could become paid in full, w/lesser to no value, compared to this winter.
If the acquiring club pays half, we should like the trade return and the half reclaimed has to go back on the roster. Who thinks Bill is shaving another 40mil off the player budget? Then buy 20mil of rentals and flip them too.
That may be where CB’ operating cash comes from.
To me, there is less risk in keeping Gray. I don’t see the Cardinals signing 2 starting pitchers for a total of $20 mil that could provide the results that Gray and Pallante/Mathews/Leahy will. If the acquiring team is paying Gray $20 mil, I don’t see any better than a lottery ticket return. That doesn’t help the future. By the trade deadline, the Cardinals could possibly trade Gray. At that time, they probably pay $10 mil of what remains and get a better return.
I hope we are building for 2028. Every trade matters. We are going to feed mlb some “short-term sacrifices”. Hope it works.
Yes, Gray is one I see as much more valuable at the trade deadline. By that point, he will be down to about $12 million remaining, plus the $5 million buyout.
DeWitt can eat $5-9 million this year, plus they buyout and likely get two decent to good prospects back, plus he gets two-thirds of the season’s worth of results.
Gray is more likely to approve the trade destination, because he knows he is going to a contender.
If you trade him now, DeWitt is eating $10-20 million, and likely getting a lottery ticket back. Plus, the Cardinals are in worse shape heading into the season.
Maybe DeWitt will learn not to backload contracts, like he has learned not to hand out NTC’s.
Gray could get 20mil easily, which is why we should like the trade return of eating 20mil.
Fangraphs has him at 28.5mil in 2025. Downgrade him a season, eat more than Bill has to, and get more than a lottery ticket. It’s already guaranteed salary. Paying a larger % instead of reducing the budget, could help the rebuilds acquisitions. TBD
By the deadline Gray could be on the IL or getting blistered every outing. Should Bill roll the dice? Will he?
Still seeing all the reporting and speculation about Sonny Gray being traded. I just can’t wrap my head around how that helps the Cardinals in the long run
Forsch, the reason it doesn’t seem to make sense is because it doesn’t make sense. Yet they are going to do it anyway.
The “reason” is the player budget.
When any club is unwilling to buy top end talent to compete, trading BACK becomes an overwhelming necessity. We are there.
Another new coach for the Cards!
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The “reason” is the player budget.
Bloom has stated the budget will be about what it was in 2025. Whether he meant opening day payroll or end-of-year payroll remains to be seen.
But if it costs as much to shed a player as to find a backfill, there is no value in trading that player.
If the Cardinals can find a club to assume all of Gray’s contract, fantastic! They’ve just found $35 million to spend on the club.
But if they have to eat $15 million to trade Gray, and spend $20 million to replace him, they have gained nothing.
As I remember, there were quite a few games where Gray barely made it by the 4th inning.
Here’s a comparison of Gray to Mikolas:
Gray GS 32 – IP 180 IP per start – 5.6 ERA – 4.28
Mikolas GS 31 – IP 156 IP per start – 5.0 ERA – 4.84I don’t see why there so much concern about trading Gray. Personally, I find it annoying to see a pitcher take the mound who I know is going to get taken out after 5 and a half innings, but is till getting paid like a Cy Young contender. Gray does have a much higher winning percentage than Mikolas, though. But, as with all stats, that can get skewed by the kind of offense and defense that is playing behind him.
LACardFan said:
But if they have to eat $15 million to trade Gray, and spend $20 million to replace him, they have gained nothing.
I see your point, but you are not considering the player or players you get back from that trade. I think Gray will be a value to a contending club and will offer decent prospects in trade, especially if the Cardinals kick in 10 or more million.
So they could flip Gray now for prospects, backfill w/rentals and deadline flip them also. Far from nothing when the goal is to acquire players.
If Pallante is in the opening week rotation, or ever again for that matter, they have beyond pathetically given up.
I’ve been thinking of this and some might disagree, but you can only win certain picks in the lottery, I wonder if they get a top 5 this year or not could play a part between half or fully tanking for 2026….
2nd, Some in here preach and try and say that the Cardinals won’t manipulate service time, but my opinion is that if they call JJ up before end of April/early May they are beyond foolish.
6.8 years > 6 the last time I did mathThere is no reason to bring JJ up until Arenado is gone. They are not going to play him on the right side unless and until it is decided he cannot play left side at the MLB level. Assuming the new regime has and is guided by baseball intelligence at least, as opposed to a propensity to be driven by ticket selling stunts like beaming Walker up, pretending The Texas League is not so different from MLB and he magically morphed into an outfielder.
bling, I am not so sure JJ’s defensive placement is as cut and dried as you represent it. There are other players to consider. I suspect that if Arenado and Donovan are gone, then we will see Gorman at third and JJ at second. Do you disagree?
There is a big difference between JJ and Walker. The latter was a high schooler who had NO Triple-A experience and was rushed to the bigs at age 20. Wetherholt is 23 with 275 very good Triple-A PAs under his belt.
Not the same at all.
Not to mention that JJ isn’t likely to be moved to MLB and suddenly become an outfielder. The Walker thing was just so messed up.
I could 100% see him as the starting second baseman in many scenarios. I think the only way he goes to 3B is if Arenado and Gorman are both traded or injured. He could be moved over there down the road if Saggese hits and whomever is playing 3B doesn’t but my guess is he starts his career at 2B.
see your point, but you are not considering the player or players you get back from that trade. I think Gray will be a value to a contending club and will offer decent prospects in trade, especially if the Cardinals kick in 10 or more million.
I think the Cardinals will get the same or better prospects at the trade deadline, and DeWitt will be out less money, and Gray will be more likely to accept a trade because he knows the team he is being traded to is “contending.”
I also know the Cardinals were only willing to eat $10 million per year of Arenado’s contract last year, and found no takers (besides the Yankees who wanted the Cardinals to take Stroman and the Astros who quickly pivoted). But if the Cardinals are all of a sudden willing to eat a lot of money for prospects, Why don’t they eat $18 million of the $19 million owed to Arenado? Are you telling me a team with an absence at 3B and tight fiscal constraints (like the Mariners), wouldn’t trade a decent prospect if they only had to pay $1 million for Arenado’s services?
So they could flip Gray now for prospects, backfill w/rentals and deadline flip them also. Far from nothing when the goal is to acquire players.
Let’s see how much they are willing to eat on Arenado’s contract to acquire prospects first.
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