- This topic has 560 replies, 44 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Wetherholt is listed 5’10” 190 lbs, which means he is what really?
Tommy Edman with more contact ability.
The Cardinals haven’t picked this high in a while. It will be interesting to see how they deploy their pool money. I have a note to myself that the Cardinals pool money is $10,213,000, and slot for the 7th pick is $6,823,700. I don’t remember where I got that info from or when, so I don’t really know if it is correct.
From what I’ve derived at regarding the upcoming MLB draft. Not much separates Tier 1 and 2
Tier 1 top prospects.
Condon, Bazzana, Burns, Caglianone.
Tier 2 top prospects.
Smith, Wetherholt, Kurtz
Tier 3 top prospects.
Montgomery, GriffinTier 1 is Condon and Bazzana. They are the best 2 players in the draft. Some teams may have Burns in there as well, but I know there is some concern about the lack of a 3rd pitch and his mechanics consistency. I expect both Caglianone and Kurtz to go lower than draft experts think. Both are limited to 1B and the history of unathletic 1B in the draft is not good.
ATM, with the Goldy situation, the Cards could value Caglianone and Kurtz as a future replacement at 1B. Personally, I feel Burleson would be fine there as Goldy’s future replacement. Then the Cards could lean towards Smith or Wetherholt, if either or both are available.
You draft the best player available and do not draft for need. Kurtz and Caglianone don’t help with the 1B hole at all as they themselves are 2+ years away if they even make it. Smart GMs draft up the middle players as they are the best athletes and can shift down the defensive spectrum if they aren’t defensively cut out for SS or CF. Up the middle players also can provide value even if their bat doesn’t turn out great as they can play a hard defensive position.
If a 1B can’t field, he can only go to DH, and then his hitting is even more important. If a 1B or DH can’t hit, he is completely worthless.
I think the Cardinals have Burns & Smith as options 1a & 1b.
They will likely end up taking Griffin or Rainer, as I suspect both pitchers will be off the board at 7. Before Yesavage’s partially collapsed lung, I felt he would be the third choice for the Cardinals.
If I were going for a college bat, I would probably choose Christian Moore of TN – same amount of HR as Caglianone, plays 2B. High floor/High ceiling.
Caglianone would probably be my second choice, as his bat is crazy good, and as one sportswriter wrote: “Wait until he focuses solely on hitting.”
I think Kurtz is overrated because he plays in a bandbox. Learned that lesson from Will Craig years ago.
Wetherholt has two disadvantages: 1) limited upside 2) Recurring hamstring issue that affected both his offense and defense this year. Seems like a Nico Hoerner-type pick with more injuries.
“I think Kurtz is overrated because he plays in a bandbox”. From some of the videos I’ve seen on Kurtz, many of his blasts would have been out of just about any baseball field. He’d look pretty good in uniform #8 for the Cardinals. I’d still prefer the lefty pitcher, Hagen Smith, if he falls to #7. RHP Burns may be my top choice. But he’ll likely go in the top 4. Wetherholt wouldn’t disappoint me either. He’d be kind of like another Burleson with more speed.
I figure a second baseman is a kid with no arm. The Cards like 3rd basemen because of bat arm combo.
Right now, my fairly realistic draft possibilities are 1)Burns 2) Smith 3)Wetherholt 4)Kurtz. Either Wetherholt or Kurtz, maybe both, should/could be available at #7 for the Cardinals. Burns and Smith are less likely. Or would the Cardinals decide to go with one of the top two rated high school prospects? At least one or both should/could be available.
If Smith is there at 7 I would bet the Cardinals take him. I actually prefer Weatherholt, but because management has been pitcher-light in recent drafts I think they will go with Smith if both he and Weatherholt are still on the board.
If the Cardinal sell at the deadline I would go with Goldy for some prospects. We have guys who would play first base better than the positions they are playing now. Gorman and Burleson for sure and maybe even Donovan who seems to have really come along as an outfielder.
Kurtz is the last player I want to see the Cardinals draft.
I really prefer taking a pitcher with our pick. Burns or Smith would be preferable, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Brecht from Iowa being taken. It sounds like Burns and him have similar stuff.
I’m not sure there is a lot of difference in the potential of the top 7 college prospects. So, the Cardinals, drafting at #7 are in a solid position. The only thing, drafting higher would provide is a better chance at getting one of the top two pitching prospects.
I really do not want one of the 2 pitchers. Pitchers are a double risk given pitcher injury rates versus batter injury rates and both groups can fail to live up to the hype even as top 10 draft picks. I would focus on taking pitchers in the middle rounds that show room for growth. I’m not saying I would always avoid pitchers at the top. But my preference for scenarios where I can pick between a hitter and pitcher with equal FV will be to take the hitter.
I don’t have data to back this up, but my suspicion is among top hitters and pitchers, the % of top players having been 1st round picks will be higher for the hitters. Top pitchers will likely show a mix where a larger % of top pitchers come from mid to lower rounds as pitchers are notoriously hard to project in college and even more so high school. A meh pitcher can turn into a great pitcher with a velo bump (Degrom) or adding a new pitch (Burnes).
Drafting amateur pitchers is like venture investing: a diversified portfolio of smaller bets is the optimal strategy, because the fundamental failure rate is high (due to injury and/or performance), the “winners” generate outsized returns that usually cover the failures, but it’s extremely difficult to know ex ante who the winner(s) will be. You still do thorough due diligence on the individual pitchers, but apply a higher discount rate to your underwriting.
Skenes was a once in a decade pitcher though and is the exception not the norm. His talent and ceiling is a clear step above typical top draft pick college pitchers including Smith and Burnes.
With Hence and Matthews coming along as potential top of the order starting pitchers. It might be more prudent to add a quality bat to the organization at #7. The likes of Wetherholt or Kurtz maybe. However, either of the two top level pitchers would be a welcome addition, too. Burnes or Smith.
I’m still waiting on Fangraphs to update their draft board to give a final list of who I want, but I think Rainer is in the lead for me. All of the college bats play non-premium positions albeit the 2B, but they are both average defenders with some thinking they may be slightly below average at 2B.
Here is what CBS sports said about Rainer. I don’t like comps a lot, but I assume this type of quote gets a lot of people excited.
Rainer is loaded with tools and upside, and he gives off some Gunnar Henderson and Corey Seager vibes back when they were draft prospects.
Edit: To clarify, Rainer is probably the top of my players that realistically have a chance to make it to 7. Condon and Bazzana will be taken earlier.
I like the Jim Thome comp for Kurtz. Kurtz is also a nifty defensive 1B. With Goldy’s days apparently numbered as the regular Cardinals 1B. Kurtz seems to “fit the bill” as a legit pick at #7 for the Cardinals. Burleson and Baker could handle 1B until Kurtz is MLB ready. Wetherholt would be a solid choice at #7, too. But the Cardinals have some depth in the organization to play 2B, SS and 3B in the near to distant future..
I’m curious as to what the Cardinals think of the two most highly rated high school players available. Griffin and Ranier. The Cardinals may be in a position to have their pick of the top high school player available. They may not get that opportunity again for many years to come.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.