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I am not sold on Griffin as a SS due to size and build. Not really CF either beyond short term. Envision an Arenado replacement coming along at just the right time. If he rakes at PB we could go ahead and chisel him in to the 2028 lineup.
The Rainer arm preservation story line I’ve seen is intriguing.
I feel the fastest way to screw up any draft is to draft for potential need over talent. In other words, don’t take the next Zach Thompson because you need pitching when Mike Trout is still out there.
My preference is Wetherholt. I think he will be the best all-around player from this class. He’s versatile defensively and plays 2nd, SS, and 3rd. He’s a consistent gap to gap hitter with some pop who loves to steal bases.
With that said…I’d be happy with Smith or Burns…I wouldn’t mind Kurtz. Montgomery has a ton of tools. I don’t want a high school kid as there are none who are the proverbial “can’t miss” prospect (although anyone can fail). HS kids are inherently riskier as well.
To me it comes down to Smith, Burns, Wetherholt, or Kurtz. I’m assuming there is no way Condon, Travis, or Cags drops to 7.
I have seen Hagen Smith in person and he is impressive. He beat Carolina 2-1 and his FB was between 95-100 and slider was unhittable. He is 6’3″ 215 and is a lefty. The Cardinals do not get a chance to get a pitcher like Smith very often.
AdM, Wetherholt may be the safest pick among the top seven collegiate prospects. I saw a past mock where Kurtz was picked #1. He must have some talent, too. Seems the key to either Burns or Smith possibly being available is if a team drafting before the Cardinals takes a high school player or Montgomery. Next Sunday will be exciting for draft enthusiasts.
I have seen Hagen Smith in person and he is impressive. He beat Carolina 2-1 and his FB was between 95-100 and slider was unhittable. He is 6’3″ 215 and is a lefty. The Cardinals do not get a chance to get a pitcher like Smith very often.
Well said GC. I have seen Smith in person numerous times as well. I know I am biased but he is the best college pitcher in the country IMO and from the toughest conference. I hope he is available at number 7 but if not we will have some other good options. I also like Braden Montgomery, OF, A&M.
Montgomery would be a hard pass for me due to strikeout issues. College players that strikeout that much won’t do well in the Cardinals system.
In other words, don’t take the next Zach Thompson because you need pitching when Mike Trout is still out there.
I don’t want a high school kid as there are none who are the proverbial “can’t miss” prospect (although anyone can fail). HS kids are inherently riskier as well.
Well, Trout was a high school kid chosen 25th overall…hardly a “can’t miss” prospect.
In order from lowest risk to highest risk, it is:
1. College hitters
2. HS hitters (barely edging out college pitchers)
3. College pitchers
4. HS pitchersI don’t see any similarities between Zack Thompson and Burns/Smith/Yesavage. Thompson was a college player with an injury history, poor results and a mid-90’s fastball. The three at the top of this draft throw harder, have great strikeout rates and great results to show for their body of work.
I should add, one former scout said it is much easier to evaluate pitchers than hitters, because you see a starting pitcher throw 90+ times per game, versus a hitter appearing at the plate 3-4 times per game.
The failure rate for pitchers is due to injury risk.
LaCardFan….
I probably shouldn’t have used names because I wasn’t comparing anyone to anyone.
Point is simply this…don’t draft a mediocre player at a position of need when a great player is still on the board and available. It’s kinda like women…you may want a Catholic girl to please Mom, but don’t date a 4 just because she’s catholic when a Methodist 10 is out there and wanting you to ask her out!
Montgomery would be a hard pass for me due to strikeout issues. College players that strikeout that much won’t do well in the Cardinals system.
He will be a top 10 pick. His K rate this year was 20%, which isn’t great but also not outrageous. What is encouraging is that he also had a 18% BB rate, which tells me that he has the potential for plate discipline. And his 1.187 OPS in the toughest league in the country is also nice.
His K rate this year was 20%, which isn’t great but also not outrageous.
I’ve been following draft picks for about 8 years, and college picks who strike out more than 60 times in a year tend to do poorly in professional ball. Yes, I realize he “only” struck out 59 times…
Hard pass.
The Cardinals need to be looking for hitters that strikeout 30-40 times in a season, as they have shown no ability to correct swing-and-miss issues.
I think Wetherholt will be off the board by 7, and the Cardinals will end up with Smith. Not a bad problem to have, but if Wetherholt does drop that far I would take him over Smith.
GC’s first hand scouting report sounds like Smith will be a good one. Pitchers are risky, but also the single most important player on the field.
By the way LA Card, I wasn’t being facetious. I have no doubt that you know more about MLB draft prospects than I do but I do follow SEC baseball close and Montgomery and Smith were two of the top players this year. I haven’t seen a mock draft yet without either of them in the top 10. What is encouraging about Montgomery is that his plate discipline got better each year of college. He walked 18 times his freshman year but 53 times his senior year. I would think that would translate to pro ball.
Did he walk more because of a better eye or better pitch selection or did he walk more because he became a more dangerous bat and teams just pitched around him more?
Did he walk more because of a better eye or better pitch selection or did he walk more because he became a more dangerous bat and teams just pitched around him more?
Well I know that A&M had seven regulars in their lineup with an OPS above .900 so I would think it would be hard to pitch around him.
Stupid question time.
I know competitive balance picks can be traded. What do you think the traded player cost would be? Could it be a lower ranked player plus cash? Are there rules against including cash in this type of trade.
Would be nice to get back in the 2nd round.
Card4Ever, I couldn’t agree with that more. I was saying that a while back. I wonder if a McGreevy or Thompson type would get that done, doubtful but possible.
Who do the Cardinals pick at #7 if Bazzana, Condon, Caglionone, Burns, Wetherholt and Smith have been picked before they pick?
I’ll answer my own question. Kurtz wouldn’t be a bad choice at #7. A 6’5″, power-hitting lefty replacement for Goldschmidt’s inevitable departure as the regular 1B. Although Burleson could be fine there, too. Especially, if they can get either Burns or Smith at #7.
I think the K-BB rate is relevant.
Yes, the ratio is K-BB ratio relevant, but more relevant is the number of times they strike out, at least in terms of likelihood to be a bust.
All I am saying is the guy most likely to be a bust in the Top 10 is Montgomery, and for that, I would pass.
Wow, just Wow regarding Wetherholt. “MLB.com’s draft profile notes “some area scouts think he’s the best amateur bat they’ve ever seen.”” Burns or Smith, Wetherholt or Kurtz?
Burns, Smith, Wetherholt and Kurtz. I’m guessing, at least three of these top prospects will be “off the board” when the Cardinals pick at #7. So, I speculate, at least one will likely be there for the Cardinals.
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