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gscottar is correct. The first pick is protected. That is why the Cardinals only lost their second rounder this July for the signing of Contreras last December.
P.S. And to the issue of rebuilding the pitching pipeline being discussed on another thread, losing the 56th overall pick and about $1.5 million in signing bonus allocation hurts the rebuild of the pitching in the system. (I assumed it would have been a pitcher after they took the outfielder Davis in the first round. But that wasn’t assured since they didn’t take their first pitcher until the fourth round. That surprised me.)
Any chance the Cards get another draft pick? Does our losing record factor in the Competitive Balance picks?
Only the 10 teams with the lowest revenue, or that resides in one of the 10 smallest markets, gets a Competitive Balance pick. The Cardinals are in the 12th smallest market, so they don’t get one.
The 2024 #MLBDraft order is taking shape!
Complete details: https://t.co/zdzGrADz1V pic.twitter.com/4c1vOrlXKo
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) October 26, 2023
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?!?
It would be amazing to see the angst if the Cards got the first pick after their first bad year in a generation.
Sure there’s a chance. A good comp is Lance Lynn getting a base hit. His career batting average is .085. So the chance is not quite as good as Lance getting a hit, but pretty close, ha!
And what if the Yankees get it, imagine the talk on that. It really is a remote chance, though, maybe even as low as a Rangers-DBacks WS.
The Cardinals are in the 12th smallest market, so they don’t get one.
This is incorrect.
By Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), only five teams are in smaller markets than the Cardinals:
– Pittsburgh
– Cincinnati
– Kansas City
– Cleveland
– MilwaukeeBy TV Market, only six cities are smaller than St. Louis
– Pittsburgh
– Baltimore
– San Diego
– Kansas City
– Cincinnati
– MilwaukeeWhat changed in the latest CBA was that they included team revenue and winning % in the formula. The Cardinals are traditionally in the upper third in revenue and upper half in terms of winning %.
If you search ‘rank MLB teams by market size’, or something similar to that, you will find several websites that use differcriteria than the criteria you refer to for determining market size. Regardless of that, we are not getting a Competitive Balance pick.
BTW, your post is interesting. I had no idea that determining market size included revenue and winning percentage. For me, that’s weird. They are apparently ‘leveling the playing field’ by punishing the Cardinals for being successful.
If you search ‘rank MLB teams by market size’, or something similar to that, you will find several websites that use differcriteria than the criteria you refer to for determining market size. Regardless of that, we are not getting a Competitive Balance pick.
The competitive balance picks for the next draft aren’t published yet. MLB releases that in December each year, so we’ll know soon.
None of those various market size stats are relevant here. What matters is what MLB and MLBPA use, which is attachment 26 in the Basic Agreement. It has the Cards ranked 26 in market score. So that means they have a chance if the other factors align.
Since they started competitive balance picks (in 2012 I believe), the Cards have not qualified in just 3 of those years. One year was 2016 I think, along with 2022 and 2023. Maybe with their losing record this year, the Cards will qualify again for the next draft.
I know we are desperate for pitching and will have to use free agency to some degree to acquire it but I still maintain we should stay away from signing pitchers with the QO attached. We have possibly a once in a lifetime opportunity with this upcoming 2024 draft and we should take full advantage of it.
Cards with about a 1 in 12 shot at hitting the jackpot. For any of you who played APBA, they use a two-dice system where the numbers are digits – so a roll of “1” and “1” is an “11”. “1 and “2” is “12”, etc. This results in 36 combinations.
For hitter cards they made dice roll “66” the best number, dice roll “11” second best, and dice roll “33” third best. Thus is we were rolling APBA dice we need to roll an 11, 33, or 66 to get the first pick. 🙂
EuroDandy – Now I’m really confused.
Sorry about that. The process is confusing even after reading several articles on it. Regardless, MLB will announce December 1, 2023 which teams are awarded Competitive Balance picks in the 2024 Rule 4 draft.
Reminder that the MLB Draft Lottery is this coming Tuesday at 4:30 P.M., telecast on MLB Network. Per the table above, the Cardinals have an 8.3% chance at the first overall pick. That is fifth-best.
The Lottery is actually held beginning 2:30 PM Central Time, but the results are not released until the telecast at 4:30 Central. So if anybody gets early info from an insider, please post the results ASAP here. 😉
Also, I haven’t seen the release of the recipients for the Competitive Balance picks. I read in the CBA docs that MLB releases those on Dec 1. Maybe I missed it. Or I guess it’s hard to get stuff done on a Friday or the weekend. Maybe by Monday?
I saw somewhere that the pick received by the Twins from the Cardinals slots in after the RoY picks and before the competitive balance picks. If that is correct, it would look like this:
These picks slot in ahead of the competitive balance picks.
#31. Arizona. Corbin Carroll RoY
#32 Baltimore. Gunnar Henderson RoY
#33 Minnesota. Sonny Gray to Cardinals comp pick.All I saw was “early December” for releasing the Competitive Balance picks, but the Cards are not expected to be among them.
One way they can get some more draft picks/pitching prospects would be to trade for them. We traded a pick to the D’Backs for Goldschmidt back in 2019. They used that pick to get Dominic Fletcher, who hit .302 in his debut this year.
Draft Lottery is today.
The #STLCards have the fifth-best odds at winning the No. 1 pick & they’re hoping for their first top-five pick in 25 years. And if they win the No. 1 pick, the announcement will come from one of the best musicians in country music. https://t.co/szFgmNFPcV
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) December 5, 2023
Getting a top 3 pick would be huge. This would be our first chance at a legitimate game changing prospect through the draft in my adult life, pretty much. At least since the rules on bonuses changed, anyway. Let’s hope we have something besides the on field product to look forward to in July.
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