2021 Rotation

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  • #159981
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    gsc:

    I like WHIP also, in addition to batting average against. Those are two really good indicators of success.

    I neglected to mention BAA which is another good indicator. Especially helpful for MiLB players.

    #160007
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Carlos Martinez spun a gem of a game last night recording a game score of 73. That ties him with Jack Flaherty for second best game score of the season, trailing only Wainwrights 75. This continues the rotations streak of starts above 50 to twelve games, helping to result in an 8-4 W/L record.

    Carlos faced 30 batters on 100 pitches, logging a full 8 IP and ZERO earned runs. He allowed 5 hits, 2 doubles and 3 singles and a .217 BAbip during his innings. He also had 2 HBP’s, 2 BB’s and 3 K’s. Carlos posted a 52.2% ground ball % last night inducing 12 grounders of 23 balls in play.

    After 6 GS this season, Carlos Quality Start % is 50%, second best in the rotation trailing only Flaherty. He is now 2-4 W/L on the season over 36.1 IP, while allowing only a .598 opponents OPS, best on the staff. His run support for the games he’s started has been 2.7 runs per 9, which is not helpful to any starters W/L record. Carlos has averaged 6.1 IP per start.

    Martinez season WHIP is currently 1.018, narrowly edging Flaherty (1.019) for best of the rotation members. Lowest rotation WHIP and OPS allowed is the Martinez we have hoped for. Lets just hope doesn’t stub a toe and fall off this path.

    #160100
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    The streak of 12 games in a row with game scores above 50 has ended. Wainwright vs the NYM lineup allows 5 ER in 5.2 IP and posts a game score of 37. He didn’t keep us in the game but our lineup did.

    After taking a loss his last outing, and posting a 75 game score, the lineup pays him back with a W and good run support. It was a good string of starts.

    #160114
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    In case you’ve lost track, and I had, here is how the rotation of SP’s has shook out each time through the rotation.

    Flaherty, Wainwright, Martinez, Ponce, Gant
    Flaherty, Wainwright, Martinez, Ponce, Gant
    Flaherty, Wainwright, Martinez, KK, Gant
    Flaherty, Wainwright, Martinez, KK, Gant
    Flaherty, Wainwright, Martinez, Oviedo, KK, Gant
    Flaherty, Martinez, Wainwright,

    #160399
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    vs NYM at home, 4 game series, W/L = 2-2 split

    5.2 IP, 5 ER, GSc 37, Wainwright, W 6-5 final
    4.0 IP, 1 ER, GSc 53, KK, W 4-1 final
    4.0 IP, 4 ER, GSc 38, Oviedo, L 7-2 final
    4.1 IP, 1 ER, GSc 46, Gant, L 4-1 final

    The rotation actually allowed more earned runs (6) in the 2 wins, than in the two losses (5). The lineup scored 10 runs in the 2 wins and 3 runs in the two losses.

    The score was 6-5 (ahead) when Wainwright was pulled and STL had a 71.2% win expectancy.

    The score was 2-1 (ahead) when KK finished the 4th inning and STL had a 74.9% win expectancy.

    The score was 4-0 (behind) when Oviedo finished the 4th inning and STL had a 8.4% win expectancy.

    The score was 1-0 (behind) when Gant was pulled and STL had a 50.1% win expectancy.

    #160401
    AvatarCardinals27
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    I’m surprised that it was a 50/50 shot when Gant was yanked. The bases were loaded with 1 out.

    #160405
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Glad you pointed that out, my error. It was 50.1% when Gant walked the bases full, we were ahead 1-0.

    His last batter faced was Villar, who he walked in to tie the score. The win expectancy at 1-1, w/bases loaded, was 36.9%

    I was off by a line, so sorry

    #160515
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Flaherty records a GSc of 76 in game 1 vs COL, which is now the best by the rotation.

    #160682
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Wainwright had the highest GSc of the season at 75, before Flaherty bested him with a 76 on Friday. It didn’t go unnoticed by the ol’ war horse, who came back Sunday with the new rotation high of 79!

    vs COL, at home, 3 game sweep:

    7.0 IP, 0 ER, GSc 76, Flaherty, WPA 0.288
    4.0 IP, 7 ER, GSc 32, Martinez, WPA -0.242
    8.1 IP, 0 ER, GSc 79, Wainwright, WPA .409

    Game 1, Flaherty start: pitchers 0.308 WPA, batters 0.193 WPA (COL 0 – STL 5)
    Game 2, Martinez start: pitchers -0.110 WPA, batters 0.609 WPA (COL 8 – STL 9)
    Game 3, Wainwright start: pitchers 0.574 WPA, batters -0.073 WPA (COL 0 – STL 2)

    #160915
    AvatarCardinals27
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    Will Mikolas be activated soon, and take CMarts spot in the rotation, or will he have 1 more rehab start? Gants walks are very concerning.

    #160918
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Mikolas is only up to 69 pitches with a goal of 100. I bet he will make two more rehab starts, but that is a guess. They have already called up Oviedo, who is the logical person to step in for CMart.

    #160923
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Oviedo got rocked in his Memphis start, oddly. I thought he looked great in his first opportunity this year and has looked progressively worse each time out this year. Still, he’s got a lot of talent and will probably be a part of the rotation for many years so he makes a lot of sense to fill in til around the end of May, when Mikolas returns. Then Gant goes to the pen and Oviedo still remains the fill in starter until he shows he shouldn’t be.

    #160973
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #161136
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Gant has been a magic man, but when will his luck run out?

    #161192
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Is it luck?
    Or is it an outstanding GB% (50.5%)?
    Or maybe it’s extremely stingy x-base hit results? Gant’s .298 slg% allowed is a good comp to Justin Williams .299 on the season.

    Walks are bad and Gant nibbles, no denying, but pitches down the middle go a long way too. Not many fat meatballs in the graphic you posted.

    Gant may be as good any SP5 in baseball this season, I really haven’t checked it, just feels that way. Eventually he will throw a clunker, like the rest of the staff already has, but even then it doesn’t wash away how well he has kept us in his GS. SP4 & SP5 can be a real bad situation for some clubs. Our results have been very good.

    #161204
    Avatarblingboy
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    His problem is in 7 starts he has only gone beyond 5.0 innings once. But he does tend to give us 5 strong innings every time out.

    #161205
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    yep, 4.9 IP per start. And yes, 7 GS and 7 ER total is very strong.

    #161206
    Avatarblingboy
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    It’s like he is doing a bang up job leading off a pen start every 5 days.

    #161210
    Avatarbccran
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    Thanks for showing how it shook out.

    #161212
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
    Participant

    Free

    It’s like he is doing a bang up job leading off a pen start every 5 days.

    And that means you need most of the “cans” of the pen that you referred to available for duty in his starts to have a good shot at winning.

    So, is Gant’s inefficiency “problem” correctable? Or as jj alluded to, is Gant’s inefficiency “problem” the reason he’s been effective in his short starts.

    #161213
    Avatarblingboy
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    If a guy can give you 5 strong every 5 days it seems kind of questionable to put him back in the pen. That would be pretty acceptable for a #5 starter. The consistency from one outing to the next I mean. Starts from your #5 are usually a roll of the dice. But the pen is his fate barring an injury in the rotation.

    #161216
    Avatar858booyah
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    Gant is a swing man like Ponce Deleon.

    = bullpen

    Reyes is a perfect guy as an example of a guy who we wanted to be a starter. Who we tried with but is just not what we expected due to injury risk. He is a late inning guy.

    I like Gant but he just doesn’t throw enough strikes like Ponce. So you minimize the damage and put him in a roll to succeed. He has served us well doing what we’ve asked him to do but reality sets in and we see him for what he is.

    #161247
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    858 said:

    Reyes is a perfect guy as an example of a guy who we wanted to be a starter. Who we tried with but is just not what we expected due to injury risk. He is a late inning guy.

    I like Gant but he just doesn’t throw enough strikes like Ponce. So you minimize the damage and put him in a roll to succeed.

    Reyes is a late inning guy today, but will likely be a starter in 2022.

    Agree on Gant. His role should be in the pen. Should happen when Mikolas and CMart are back.

    #161249
    Avatarblingboy
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    BW said:

    Agree on Gant. His role should be in the pen.

    I am the opposite. Pen guys should be able to throw strikes at will. A guy like Gant who walks quite a few but doesn’t throw mistakes right down Broadway is better in the rotation.

    #161250
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    I haven’t conducted any analysis on this, but I just feel like Gant is cheating danger with so many baserunners and that when his fortunes change, it won’t be pretty.

Viewing 25 posts - 101 through 125 (of 140 total)
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