2021 Rotation

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  • #147483
    Avatargscottar
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    I would do the CMart for Sanchez trade yesterday, especially if the Yanks took all of CMart’s money. That $6M savings could be used to bring Wong back or sign Pederson.

    A Sanchez-Knizner tandem at catcher would be nice.

    #147490
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I get why the Cardinals would do the trade under those conditions, but why would the Yanks do it? I question it for the reasons previously mentioned.

    Further as 25 pointed out, there is no guarantee any savings would be used on free agents (other than Waino and Yadi perhaps).

    P.S. Sanchez has no career split advantage/disadvantage one way or the other. Would Knizner ever get a chance to answer the question of whether he is starting material with Sanchez on the roster?

    #147493
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    The Yankees might not want to do it, but they’d be stupid not to. Carlos would be their second best pitcher next year, or third at worst if Severino comes back strong. This would be a classic scenario of a rich team swindling a team bent on saving money by taking a “bad” (which isn’t even that bad) contract for a less than useful spare part. Walk Jocketty would be proud.

    #147494
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    As I tried to point out with the Ray comp, 2-3 WAR pitchers who do not have health concerns like CMart may be much cheaper on the free agent market than $13.5 MM*. At a minimum, if I was the Yankees (or any prospective trade partner), I would never take CMart on at full salary before seeing the December non-tenders.

    *$11.5 MM 2021 salary plus
    $1 MM trade bonus plus
    $1 MM to buy out 2022 and 2023 options

    There is a reason the Cardinals have been unable to trade CMart for the last two years and it only got worse in the pandemic-driven free agent market.

    #147496
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Wow Mudsy, that’s a lot of “ifs”. The other pitcher with a lot of ifs is Reyes. Truthfully I would place Reyes ahead of CMart for ’21. They seem to be going in opposite directions plus the absence of Molina? would most likely have an adverse effect on Martinez.

    It would be great to have Reyes show some of his potential in ’21 and that would set him up for the ’22 rotation… I’m not sure that the same could be said of CMart with all the younger arms emerging. With what I’ve read about Reyes recently I’m warming up to penciling him in the rotation for the ’21 edition of the Cards.

    #147497
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    As I tried to point out with the Ray comp, 2-3 WAR pitchers who do not have health concerns like CMart may be much cheaper on the free agent market than $13.5 MM*. At a minimum, I would never take CMart on at full salary before seeing the December non-tenders.

    I agree on this. I don’t think that Ray is the pitcher that Carlos is, but he is a lefty so that boosts his value a little bit. Carlos really got burned by his COVID case.

    I also think it makes the most sense for the Cards to keep Carlos, let him start half a season and see where the market is in July 2021. They really have nothing but some money to lose. Even hurt, his WAR/150 totals have stayed pretty steady over the years since he began starting. Nothing in his profile to me says that he’s toast. People just get caught up in his bad 2020, which I believe was very COVID related.

    #147498
    Avatargscottar
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    It is hard to tell what the Yankees are thinking. I have read several times that they are considering non-tendering Sanchez then I saw a different article over the weekend stating that they plan to bring Sanchez back and “get him right”. My guess is that the most recent stance is a trial balloon floated in the media to see what kind of interest Sanchez has in the marketplace.

    #147499
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    I believe it is a very good comp and handedness does not really matter. Even throwing out 2020, Ray had a higher bWAR total of the two in the years 2017-2019. If you take 2018-2019, they were roughly equal in value. Going back to 2016 changes things, but that was a long, long time ago.

    In terms of age, the two were born just 10 days apart.

    Point being that Ray just signed for $8 MM. CMart would cost the Yankees $13.5 MM. It wouldn’t make sense for them (or anyone else) to take on his entire financial commitment.

    bWAR CMart Ray
    2020 -1.2 -0.1
    2019 0.8 1.1
    2018 1.8 1.4
    2017 3.0 4.7
    17-19 total 5.6 7.2
    2016 5.6 1.0
    2015 3.9 1.6
    #147502
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    While the innings difference certainly paints the picture in favor of Ray, I would point to ERA+ as being in favor of the point I’m trying to make:

    Carlos since 2015: 130, 133, 116, 125, 134

    Ray over the same time: 117, 91, 163, 107, 104

    Carlos has been good to very good over his entire career, no matter the role. Ray has one season that looks like an outlier and a bunch of average to good seasons. And I am someone who pushed to take a look at Ray the last couple of offseasons. It may be a good comp on raw numbers, but it’s the difference between Dexter Fowler and Michael Brantley in the rate stats.

    But we don’t have to agree on this. That’s what the internet is for, right?

    #147504
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Agreed! Having said that, I have to observe that one pitcher being far more durable than the other should matter. That is why I looked at overall contribution, not rate stats. If Ray had been forced to relieve due to a bum shoulder, his ERA+ probably would have been better, too. But that is just my speculation…

    Anyway, to the bottom line. If the Cardinals could truly get out from under CMart’s entire contract and would use the money to improve the 2021 team elsewhere, I would bow to all. (I highly doubt it will happen, though.) Far more likely, he will get another chance to redeem himself in the 2021 Cardinals rotation, as you noted.

    Good discussion!

    P.S. I want to be clear that I would take a peak-career Carlos over a peak-career Ray seven days a week. But that isn’t where either one appears to be right now.

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