2021 Rotation

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Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 191 total)
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  • #147483
    gscottar
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    I would do the CMart for Sanchez trade yesterday, especially if the Yanks took all of CMart’s money. That $6M savings could be used to bring Wong back or sign Pederson.

    A Sanchez-Knizner tandem at catcher would be nice.

    #147490
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    I get why the Cardinals would do the trade under those conditions, but why would the Yanks do it? I question it for the reasons previously mentioned.

    Further as 25 pointed out, there is no guarantee any savings would be used on free agents (other than Waino and Yadi perhaps).

    P.S. Sanchez has no career split advantage/disadvantage one way or the other. Would Knizner ever get a chance to answer the question of whether he is starting material with Sanchez on the roster?

    #147493
    stlcard25
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    The Yankees might not want to do it, but they’d be stupid not to. Carlos would be their second best pitcher next year, or third at worst if Severino comes back strong. This would be a classic scenario of a rich team swindling a team bent on saving money by taking a “bad” (which isn’t even that bad) contract for a less than useful spare part. Walk Jocketty would be proud.

    #147494
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    As I tried to point out with the Ray comp, 2-3 WAR pitchers who do not have health concerns like CMart may be much cheaper on the free agent market than $13.5 MM*. At a minimum, if I was the Yankees (or any prospective trade partner), I would never take CMart on at full salary before seeing the December non-tenders.

    *$11.5 MM 2021 salary plus
    $1 MM trade bonus plus
    $1 MM to buy out 2022 and 2023 options

    There is a reason the Cardinals have been unable to trade CMart for the last two years and it only got worse in the pandemic-driven free agent market.

    #147496
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Wow Mudsy, that’s a lot of “ifs”. The other pitcher with a lot of ifs is Reyes. Truthfully I would place Reyes ahead of CMart for ’21. They seem to be going in opposite directions plus the absence of Molina? would most likely have an adverse effect on Martinez.

    It would be great to have Reyes show some of his potential in ’21 and that would set him up for the ’22 rotation… I’m not sure that the same could be said of CMart with all the younger arms emerging. With what I’ve read about Reyes recently I’m warming up to penciling him in the rotation for the ’21 edition of the Cards.

    #147497
    stlcard25
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    As I tried to point out with the Ray comp, 2-3 WAR pitchers who do not have health concerns like CMart may be much cheaper on the free agent market than $13.5 MM*. At a minimum, I would never take CMart on at full salary before seeing the December non-tenders.

    I agree on this. I don’t think that Ray is the pitcher that Carlos is, but he is a lefty so that boosts his value a little bit. Carlos really got burned by his COVID case.

    I also think it makes the most sense for the Cards to keep Carlos, let him start half a season and see where the market is in July 2021. They really have nothing but some money to lose. Even hurt, his WAR/150 totals have stayed pretty steady over the years since he began starting. Nothing in his profile to me says that he’s toast. People just get caught up in his bad 2020, which I believe was very COVID related.

    #147498
    gscottar
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    It is hard to tell what the Yankees are thinking. I have read several times that they are considering non-tendering Sanchez then I saw a different article over the weekend stating that they plan to bring Sanchez back and “get him right”. My guess is that the most recent stance is a trial balloon floated in the media to see what kind of interest Sanchez has in the marketplace.

    #147499
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I believe it is a very good comp and handedness does not really matter. Even throwing out 2020, Ray had a higher bWAR total of the two in the years 2017-2019. If you take 2018-2019, they were roughly equal in value. Going back to 2016 changes things, but that was a long, long time ago.

    In terms of age, the two were born just 10 days apart.

    Point being that Ray just signed for $8 MM. CMart would cost the Yankees $13.5 MM. It wouldn’t make sense for them (or anyone else) to take on his entire financial commitment.

    bWAR CMart Ray
    2020 -1.2 -0.1
    2019 0.8 1.1
    2018 1.8 1.4
    2017 3.0 4.7
    17-19 total 5.6 7.2
    2016 5.6 1.0
    2015 3.9 1.6
    #147502
    stlcard25
    Participant

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    While the innings difference certainly paints the picture in favor of Ray, I would point to ERA+ as being in favor of the point I’m trying to make:

    Carlos since 2015: 130, 133, 116, 125, 134

    Ray over the same time: 117, 91, 163, 107, 104

    Carlos has been good to very good over his entire career, no matter the role. Ray has one season that looks like an outlier and a bunch of average to good seasons. And I am someone who pushed to take a look at Ray the last couple of offseasons. It may be a good comp on raw numbers, but it’s the difference between Dexter Fowler and Michael Brantley in the rate stats.

    But we don’t have to agree on this. That’s what the internet is for, right?

    #147504
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Agreed! Having said that, I have to observe that one pitcher being far more durable than the other should matter. That is why I looked at overall contribution, not rate stats. If Ray had been forced to relieve due to a bum shoulder, his ERA+ probably would have been better, too. But that is just my speculation…

    Anyway, to the bottom line. If the Cardinals could truly get out from under CMart’s entire contract and would use the money to improve the 2021 team elsewhere, I would bow to all. (I highly doubt it will happen, though.) Far more likely, he will get another chance to redeem himself in the 2021 Cardinals rotation, as you noted.

    Good discussion!

    P.S. I want to be clear that I would take a peak-career Carlos over a peak-career Ray seven days a week. But that isn’t where either one appears to be right now.

    #159140
    jj-cf-stl
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    After 20 games:

    GS:
    Flaherty 4
    Wainwright 4
    Martinez 4
    Gant 4
    KK 2
    PDL 2

    IP:
    Flaherty 21.1
    Martinez 21.0
    Gant 20.0
    Wainwright 19.2
    PDL 9.1
    KK 8.2

    QS%:
    Flaherty 50%
    Gant 25%
    Wainwright 25%
    Martinez 25%
    KK 0%
    PDL 0%

    Game Score avg:
    Gant 53.8
    Flaherty 53.3
    KK 51.5
    Wainwright 48.3
    Martinez 45.8
    PDL 34.5

    best single game score:
    Flaherty 72
    Wainwright 72
    Gant 69
    KK 63
    Martinez 62
    PDL 59

    worst single game score:
    Gant 44
    KK 40
    Martinez 36
    Flaherty 29
    Wainwright 20
    PDL 10

    IP/GS:
    Flaherty 5.3
    Martinez 5.3
    Gant 5.0
    Wainwright 4.9
    KK 4.3
    PDL 3.2

    WPA:
    Flaherty 0.5
    Gant 0.3
    KK 0.1
    Wainwright -0.1
    Ponce -0.2
    Martinez -0.4

    ERA+
    Gant 166
    Flaherty 99
    KK 93
    Wainwright 74
    Martinez 62
    PDL 40

    #159147
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    JJ, do the above metrics include WHIP and average against? Those are two of the pitching stats I look at closely.

    #159148
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    On “the grass is always greener on the other side”…

    #159162
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Are we still thinking Oviedo is coming up to make a six man rotation, or has the plan changed? If he is, what is the possible roster move?

    #159165
    UncleDenny
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Guessing Hurst to Alternate site

    #159167
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The recent improvement in IP by starters had me wondering if the pitcher/position player split might remain as is.

    #159168
    so_cal_cards_fan
    Participant

    Free

    JJ – thank you. I want to point out that KK would have likely received a QS had he not been returning from injuring and on an 85-90 pitch limit.

    #159288
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

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    The rotation has shifted to a higher gear in the last 6 games. Their game scores have been:

    Wainwright 72
    Martinez 62
    KK 63
    Gant 69
    Flaherty 73
    Wainwright 75 (yesterday)

    In Wainwrights last 4 starts the Cards have scored 5 runs total.

    #159336
    858booyah
    Participant

    Free

    It’s early but I thought the rotation could turn it around a bit. Give it a couple weeks though. Things can happen..

    #159341
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Martinez extends the rotations streak of fine starts to 7 games, with a game score of 70 yesterday.

    Carlos first three starts he posted an avg game score of 40 over 15 IP, allowing a .774 opponents ops.
    His last two starts he’s posted an avg game score of 66 over 13.1 IP, allowing a .376 opponents ops.

    #159344
    stlcard25
    Participant

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    Talk about a nice turnaround. I think we all feel comfortable with Jack, and Waino should provide innings even if we maybe can’t expect the run he’s been on. KK should also be averageish, which is fine. That leaves the final two rotation spots. If Oviedo’s newfound velocity and movement are for real, he could be the guy. Can’t count on it, but he’s a nice #6 guy with potential for the time being. I think Gant ends up back in the pen, but maybe he surprises.

    That leaves Mikolas and Cmart as wild cards. Miles has given us innings when healthy, so hopefully he comes back fully ready. Carlos has been two different pitchers this year…wild and ineffective at first and then much more efficient and with good results the last two and a half starts. If he could be closer to the guy we have had lately, that would be a big boost. It’s certainly no guarantee, but it’s nice to see some glimpse of good Carlos again.

    #159348
    jj-cf-stl
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    Gant missed the 2019 and 2020 postseasons because he’s been unavailable. In fact, he has no postseason stats. Even though we needed him in the rotation to start the season, the sooner he goes back to the pen, the better.

    #159353
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    This rotation is showing signs of stabilizing and when it does we will take off and win the division. Pitching and defense win championships.

    #159361
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    gscottar, my only quibble is that all playoff teams have good pitching and the teams without enough offense quickly drop by the wayside in the post-season. But getting there is the current quest.

    #159367
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

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    “the sooner he (Gant) goes back to the pen, the better” – me

    I’ve been out there cleaning the twirly bird maple seeds out of the gutters, and questioning that last reply I made. The counter point would be that Gant has spent the last two seasons in the pen and been unavailable before seasons end. Is the pen and its frequent usage best for his durability? Are the off days that come from starting better for his durability?

    I simply don’t know and need a mulligan on my earlier comment. We will see what the dugout brass decides.

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 191 total)
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