2021 Rotation

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  • #161253
    jj-cf-stl
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    The only question I have about Gant is his durability, and which role better suits his durability. In reliever duty he’s gone down two seasons in a row. Maybe the throwing program of a starters role is best for him? The dugout brass will let us know what they think shortly.

    At this point, would the team be stronger with Martinez in the pen and Gant as the SP5? Or vice-a-versa? Carlos can be the opposite of John’s consistency. Is that inconsistency of CMart better managed in the pen?

    #161256
    jj-cf-stl
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    vs MIL, 3 game road series, Cards W/L 2-1

    STL threw their SP4, SP5 and SP1 vs Peralta, Woodruff and Burnes. On paper, MIL had the SP advantage for the series imo.

    5.1 IP, 1 ER, KK, GSc 59, KK WPA 0.109
    5.0 IP, 0 ER, Gant, GSc 60, Gant WPA 0.165
    6.0 IP, 0 ER, Flaherty, GSc 68, Flaherty WPA 0.402

    KK received zero runs of support during his 5.1 IP and is now averaging 5.8 runs support per 9, in the games he starts. On the season he is allowing a .680 ops. League avg is .691

    Gant received zero runs of support during his 5.0 IP and is now averaging 2.5 runs of support per 9, in the games he starts. On the season he is allowing a .675 ops.

    Flaherty received one run of support during his 6.0 IP and is now averaging 8.9 runs support per 9, in the games he starts. On the season he is allowing a .565 ops.

    #161409
    blingboy
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    A knowledgeable baseball sage said:

    Pen guys should be able to throw strikes at will.

    #161412
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Shouldn’t that be the case for all pitchers?

    #161435
    gscottar
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    At this point, would the team be stronger with Martinez in the pen and Gant as the SP5? Or vice-a-versa? Carlos can be the opposite of John’s consistency. Is that inconsistency of CMart better managed in the pen?

    I like CMart better in the rotation. Occasionally he will give you a 7 inning start. Gant will never do that. Gant was one of our better relievers in 2019 and 2020. Why mess with success?

    #161437
    blingboy
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    A manager can’t be expected to effectively manage a pitching staff if he has no way to predict what he will get with a guy. So I value consistency very highly. Gant would be in my rotation. CMart would be on somebody else’s pitching staff.

    #161443
    jj-cf-stl
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    The rotation is a bit thin now, so I guess the talk of changing roles for Gant can be tabled until Mikolas gets his pitch count up to snuff and returns. Oviedo is in the SP2 slot now, vacated by CMart, who had to flip flop with Adam when he had the Covid related family concern. When CMart can return, surely it’s Oviedo who gets bumped from the rotation. For me, I’ll take Gant starting over Oviedo, Woodford or CMart. By the time the 6th inning gets here, I like knowing we’re still in the game.

    #161471
    blingboy
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    As reported by Brian, Oviedo sent down and not eligible to return in time for the next turn.

    #161485
    jj-cf-stl
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    with 2 off days next week his next turn likely was a ways out. Maybe the 6th game of the coming 17 in a row? (5-26)

    #161620
    jj-cf-stl
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    During the MIL series KK, then Gant and Flaherty threw GSc’s of 59, 60 and 68; W/L 2-1

    The Diego series saw Oviedo, Wainwright and KK post GSc’s of 35, 21 and 46; and you know the GSc’s match up with being swept 0-3. We simply don’t have the lineup to overcome poor games started. It’s too ugly of a series to break it down any further. Time for a new streak.

    #161621
    gscottar
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    I value consistency very highly. Gant would be in my rotation.

    For me, I’ll take Gant starting over Oviedo, Woodford or CMart. By the time the 6th inning gets here, I like knowing we’re still in the game.

    Well Gant has the edge in ERA thus far but I question if it is sustainable. If you look at WHIP and Avg. Against:

    CMart: 1.16 whip .219 avg
    Oviedo: 1.34 whip .214 avg
    Gant: 1.63 whip .234 avg

    It seems to me Gant’s numbers aren’t sustainable as a starter but we shall see.

    #161623
    jj-cf-stl
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    I respect your opinion greatly GS but WHIP and BA neither know the difference between a HR and single. I’ll pass on that analysis discussion.

    #161624
    jj-cf-stl
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    Your sustainability questions could be better answered with HR%, XBH%, SLG% (total bases divided by AB’s), GB%, DP%.
    A lot of those WHIP baserunners get stranded, and there has to be a reason why, to account for Gants low earned runs allowed.

    It’s my guess Gant will lead CMart and Oviedo in all the catagories above, to account for his strand rate.

    #161637
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Besides ERA and K/IP I like gs’s use of WHIP and Avg and I also include GS when sizing up starting pitchers. Game scores show up-to date trends rather than using the entire season stats.

    Mikolas’s GS of 66 on Sunday vs. Nashville(AAA) is a good indicator of how he’s advancing.

    #161639
    gscottar
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    To me the most alarming stat for Gant is that in 34.1 IP he has 27 BB’s and 29 K’s. In order to survive that requires an incredible strand rate. Is that sustainable? He seems to be flirting with danger. Those 27 BB’s are the highest in all of MLB currently.

    Now a logical question would be why would you want someone with a high WHIP in the bullpen? The answer is I wouldn’t but if you look at Gant’s WHIP the previous three seasons it is much better (1.29, 1.28, 1.06). That means he is either more comfortable in the pen or he has just lost command this year. My hypothesis is that it is the former but I can’t really prove it.

    #161675
    jj-cf-stl
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    If you’d like to see why only 3 of the 27 BB’s have become earned runs, just look at the game logs and decide if the stranded runners are sustainable. Players behind the BB’s are making outs. Whether Gant can continue to get these type outs is the sustainability question, and I want you to decide without influence from me.

    Maybe he will get rocked tonight so everyone can say SEE! 😉

    #161717
    gscottar
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    Pitching to the defense is a valid point JJ. We have a very good defense which helps a pitcher like Gant. He looked great last night because he kept the BB’s to a minimum. But I still maintain trying to thrive while leading the league in BB’s is a tough way to make a living.

    #161720
    gscottar
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    #161722
    stlcard25
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    I agree that pitching to the defense is a valid strategy…to a point. And that point is that the contact must be soft contact. Guys missing the sweet spot because of deception or late movement might allow someone to pitch effectively even if they are walking more than you’d like. I think this is something that the metrics can miss. That’s why I don’t think Carlos Martinez got enough credit for now good he was c. 2015-17. No one was really able to square him up, which was impressive.

    Now, Gant? His average exit velocity is 91.0 mph. That’s not only showing that he’s not generating weak contact, he’s actually generating a ton of hard contact. That number is in the 17th percentile. He is a lot better at barrels, somehow, in the 77th percentile. Still, I don’t believe that pitching where guys are hitting hard shots, even grounders, is sustainable. xERA, which is his expected ERA based on contact, is 5.01, which forebodes some problems coming. I really hope the projections are wrong, but it’s tough to see him being a 2 ERA pitcher either this way.

    #161723
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Maybe he will get rocked tonight so everyone can say SEE! 😉

    SEE. As long as he keeps us in games and getting critical outs while the Cards are winning….. maybe folks should be looking at that. I. like many others, would be happy to see Gant in the BP…. but as long as we need him as a starter, I’m fine with that. Let the detractors talk…. but Gant has helped out when we need him to. He may get more starts this season than some don’t see him getting.

    Please stop with the projections of this and that…. watch the guy pitch for crying out loud. He’s doing what the team asked him to do…. lay off.

    #161752
    GACard
    Participant

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    Gant seems to give us a chance to win every time he’s on the hill no matter what the projections say. I haven’t been able to watch all of his starts, but the walks seem to come into play more in the fifth and sixth, which you expect from a guy who has been in the pen for a couple years

    I think you could do a lot worse in that rotation spot than Gant

    #161755
    jj-cf-stl
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    Cabrera did Gant no favors yesterday, but that’s the risk you take when you don’t clean up your own inning. Another 5 IP-ish, 2 ER outing, close to Gants usual, although his ERA per 9 is 2.04. Not bad for a SP5.

    Gants BAbip allowed is .292, mlb avg is .297, a fairly league avg result on balls in play for batters vs Gant.

    Gants exit velocity is 89.6, mlb avg is 88.4
    Gants hard hit % is 39.5, mlb avg is 38.8
    he’s slightly above mlb avg on contact velocity, but nothing alarming. As a comparison, Flaherty has allowed a 89.3 EV and 39.0 hard hit %.

    Gants LD% is 22.6, mlb avg is 25.4
    Gants GB% is 51.3, mlb avg is 43.5
    Gants ops allowed is .660, mlb avg is .741
    BRef

    Most importantly for me, Gant is staying healthy in this SP role to date.

    #161839
    jj-cf-stl
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    vs PIT, 2 game home series, STL 2-0 W/L

    5.1 IP, 2 ER, GSc 52, Gant
    6.0 IP, 2 ER, GSc 59, Flaherty

    2021 GSc average:
    60.4 Flaherty
    53.4 Gant
    53.0 league avg
    52.3 KK
    51.1 CMart
    50.6 Wainwright
    42.3 Oviedo
    34.5 Ponce

    2021 run support per 9:
    8.9 Flaherty
    5.3 KK
    4.4 league avg
    3.7 CMart
    3.5 Ponce
    3.2 Oviedo
    3.0 Wainwright
    2.8 Gant

    through 5-20-2021
    BRef

    2021 OPS allowed:
    .572 Flaherty
    .634 CMart
    .653 KK
    .660 Gant
    .700 league avg
    .772 Oviedo
    .776 Wainwright
    .939 Ponce

    2021 pitchers war, BRef:
    0.9 Flaherty
    0.8 Gant
    0.3 KK
    0.0 CMart
    -0.1 Wainwright
    -0.2 Oviedo
    -0.4 Ponce

    #161840
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    Nice summary, JJ. Not much doubt about it, Flaherty is the ace. Amazing the run support he is getting, double the league average. His support will come down though. Almost 9 runs a game is not going to continue.

    #161841
    PugsleyAddams
    Participant

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    You never know, BicycleMike. Maybe it goes up. I wonder what the all time record is for runs support per game for a starter in a given season? The answer to this may best be left for Skip and our good friends over at the esteemed Elias Sports Bureau.

Viewing 25 posts - 126 through 150 (of 191 total)
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